Scenario Planning

At Shaping Tomorrow, we support individuals, organisations and companies with scenario planning. Our unique AI system, Athena, scans over 80,000 reputable internet and social media sources for evidence of change. We look at emerging technologies, social movements and environmental trends, providing organisations with intelligence to inform policy, develop strategy, act on opportunities, mitigate threats and transform in a timely manner.

What is scenario planning

Scenario planning allows one to make assumptions about the future through the use of reports and planning tools which identify likely patterns and outcomes and inform decisions. By being informed of likely scenarios, you can be better prepared, transforming challenges into opportunities

All businesses, organisations and Governments are faced with uncertainty, but by utilising scenario planning you can demystify the future and turn uncertainty into business confidence.

We can tailor any project to your specific needs, but as standard offer open access to over 120 ready-made predictive scans covering

Megatrends
Drivers
SDGs
Social
Jobs
Sectors
Technologies
G20
Existential events

By making informed decisions based on what could happen in the future you are protecting your business or organisation from costly mistakes.

Benefits of scenario planning

There are many benefits of scenarios and the ability to prepare for the future, including:

Determining possible outcomes
Choosing your preferred future
Agility and resilience to emerging change
Marketing in advance of trends
Informed decision making
Increased business performance
Allowing you to remain ahead of the competition
Have increased confidence in any action you take
Spot opportunities for growth and progression
Keeping ahead and informed of industry trends

Not all decisions you make within your organization will require scenarios, but if you are engaging in anything that has an element of risk, or is reliant on external factors, requires a large investment or has a need for long-term success attached to it then foresight through the use of scenario planning becomes a ‘must have’.

Scenario planning process

The scenario process begins by using the data, information and knowledge gathered by Athena. She is the first robot in the world to present a number of instant, auto-generated scenarios based on your initial query.

Athena can produce scenarios using several different methods, each designed to describe the future in different ways.

FOUR GLOBAL FUTURES
Use - classic scenario planning
Built on analyzing - Business as Usual, Growth, and Collapse scenarios
CAUSAL LAYERED ANALYSIS (CLA)
Use - Transform to new future models
Built on analyzing Litanies, Systems, Worldviews, and Myths
COMPLEXITY ANALYSIS
Use - helps determine where and how challenges can be positively influenced
Built on analyzing Obvious, Complicated, Complex, and Chaotic issues
3 HORIZONS
Built on analyzing: Managerial, Leadership, Entrepreneurial levels of change
Use - conversations about challenges in the present, aspirations for the future and the kinds of innovation needed

FOCUS - Identify the need for scenarios where you are facing opportunities and risks to determine the exact question you need answering
EXPLORE - Create the initial drivers list (what possible challenges could come out of the issue you have identified, for example if looking at emerging technologies it may be the use of AI, rising costs of staffing, etc)
INTEGRATE - Gather data using Athena and create a draft report identifying a number of potential scenarios that could arise based on the initial question asked
INVOLVE - Discuss the findings, improve the scenarios and determine everyone's preferable future
EVALUATE - Publish the final report in document, slideshow or webinar presentation format
ACTION - Determine with your stakeholders what detailed actions need to be done to achieve your prefereable future.

Scenario planning analysis

Once the likely scenarios have been identified, then you can move into a phase of scenario analysis, reviewing the scenarios and asking questions about the likely impact of each. For example:

Will this scenario affect my supply chain?
Is there sufficient demand for this new product or service?
What competition can we expect for this idea?
What opportunities does this scenario present?
Can we transform our company, our market, or the World

Once you identify the possible impacts of each scenario you are better able to prepare for them and put steps in place to minimize the impact of risks and maximize opportunities.

A word of caution here is to ensure that you review all possible scenarios (Athena provide 4 with each method as part of your assessment) and not just the one you think is most plausible. She has the advantage that she will challenge stuck thinking with scenarios that suggest entirely diffferent futures. So minds get stretched, alternatuve views are iffered nby participants that gradually gel among common agreements,

Scenarios aren't just about predicting one possible future and planning for that, but more so dealing with all of the possible outcomes together so you can adapt and change as you see how the future unfolds. This is how you can better future-proof your organization against all scenarios.

It is also important to consider the longer term vision, vales and goals for your organization and anticipate where that might change in the future too. For example, don’t just base your action plan on the current products or services you provide but also consider where you may take your business next for a complete strategy.

Scenario planning example

At Shaping Tomorrow we have carried out scenario creation activities for a number of industries including agriculture, food and drink, engineering, animal welfare, banking, healthcare, the environment, talent availability, manufacturing, logistics, Governments, science and technology and many more.