Plausibility is a method that presents a set of fixed set of alternative futures and through discussion and rating determines the best choice among them.

Uses of the method

  • Gaining perspectives on strategic choices 
  • Identifying the official future


  • Encourages dialog and deeper thinking
  • Teases out divergent views
  • Encourages the determination of the best future
  • Low cost and quick to do


  • Requires the use of other methods to support conclusions

Steps to complete

  • Reveal the Issue to participants
  • Present what is known about the Issue 
  • Ask participants to discuss what is good and bad about the Issue and the evidence
  • Ask participants to rate the Indicators (scenarios) only after the discussion
  • Discuss the outcomes using the Average and Show results analysis, determine the best alternative future and to discuss what this means for current strategy

'Plausibility' can be shared with others or kept private using the 'Visible to' fields and through the 'tag', 'report', 'share'', 'link and 'comment' functionality. Use 'tag' and/or 'report' to aggregate your analyzes, 'share' with others via email, Facebook and Twitter etc. or add a 'comment' to ask others where they agree/disagree and encourage them to make their own analysis from their unique vantage point.

Further reference


This method was developed for the Department for Transport, UK  by Waverley Management Consultants  

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Even with all the advice and tools we have provided here starting a foresight project from scratch can be a daunting prospect to a beginner. Let us know if you need help with this method or want a group facilitation exercise or full project or program carrying out by us. We promise to leave behind more internal knowledgeable people who can expand your initiative for better organizational performance.

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