Incast explores possible alternative futures using general scenarios of how the world might be in the future.
Uses of the method
To generate possible alternative futures and their potential impact on society.
Steps to complete
Scenario: The Decline and Collapse Future
“Decline and Collapse” describes a future of global breakdown: economic, political, social and environmental.”
Set a time horizon
In this context, any one of your scenarios described is possible. DO NOT DISCUSS ITS RELATIVE PLAUSIBILITY OR PROBABILITY;- a context exists; simply consider how you would cope most successfully.
After reading their given scenario ask the teams to answer each question in turn about what would life be like in this future. Teams can work on one, mutiple or different scenarios that you have created.
Ask the teams to suspend their disbelief and not to ask HOW this scenario came to exist; or too question its fundamental assumptions. Explain that they have awakened to find themselves living the scenario. What is their life like then?
Imagine what political controversies, international events, critical issues, awards, celebrations, sports events, and other newsworthy items might occur in this future. Take details to their logical, if extreme, conclusions. Remember that some traditional activities, offices, organizations, and lifestyles may disappear entirely in your scenario. Some lifestyles and activities may be transformed, existing in this future in an entirely new form. And this future may compel the creation of entirely new offices, services, businesses, schools, and activities. Exceed the boundaries of the present wherever it seems logical given the context of the scenario: your suggestions only need to be logically consistent with the assumptions of the scenario.
'Incast' can be shared with others or kept private using the 'Visible to' fields and through the 'tag', 'report', 'share'', 'link and 'comment' functionality. Use 'tag' and/or 'report' to aggregate your analyzes, 'share' with others via email, Facebook and Twitter etc. or add a 'comment' to ask others where they agree/disagree and encourage them to make their own analysis from their unique vantage point.
Developed at the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies
Even with all the advice and tools we have provided here starting a foresight project from scratch can be a daunting prospect to a beginner. Let us know if you need help with this method or want a group facilitation exercise or full project or program carrying out by us. We promise to leave behind more internal knowledgeable people who can expand your initiative for better organizational performance.
Contact us today for a free discussion on your needs.
Are there other enhancements or new methods you would like to see here? Let us know and we will do our best to respond with a solution quickly.
Some rights reserved. This particular part of the website is licensed under a Creative Commons License.