Summary

Analysis
Systems map: shows how changing mobility strategies are likely to change all forms of public and private transportation in the coming decades affecting everyone’s habits and lifestyles.

Radar chart: Top mobility topics identified by our AI are dramatically larger investments in better infrastructures, especially smart cities and public transport options all of which bode well for growth in the construction and manufacturing industries and result in improvements in public health, revenue collection, service and work opportunities.

Graph-It: By 2025, the transport revolution is expected to be in full swing in many parts of the world with much banking investment in automation and robots. We can expect to see the rise of new and powerful brands and witness the demise of many household names, swept away by the expected huge disruption from new mobility offers.

Sentiment: opinion towards improved mobility is very nett positive, globally, with only a few reservations mainly related to the possibility of increasing the rich/poor divide and possible delays in consumer demand as people maybe slower to give up their traditional forms of transport than most experts and pundits assume.

Pie Charts: Mobility is an emerging signal with much activity in the ‘evolving’ and ‘gaining traction’ categories that promises huge growth and new income streams going forward. This is likely to be a rest of the century global phenomenon with a tipping point where the public in industrialized countries accept the arrival of a new mobility infrastructure by an estimated tipping point of around 2040.

Countries: Top ten countries involved in improving mobility are Australia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Qatar, Austria, China, India, Malaysia, Nigeria And Saudi Arabia who are not only looking to improve mobility but to reduce pollution and traffic jams.
Cities: Cities leading the way include New York, Melbourne, Delhi, London, Brussels, Barcelona, Dubai, Vancouver, Helsinki and Detroit

Visuals
System map
The systems map shows how changing mobility strategies are likely to change all forms of public and private transportation in the coming decades affecting everyone’s habits and lifestyles.

Radar
Top mobility topics identified by our AI are dramatically larger investments in better infrastructures, especially smart cities and public transport options all of which bode well for growth in the construction and manufacturing industries and result in improvements in public health, revenue collection, service and work opportunities.

Graph-It
By 2025, the transport revolution is expected to be in full swing in many parts of the world with much banking investment in automation and robots. We can expect to see the rise of new and powerful brands and witness the demise of many household names, swept away by the expected huge disruption from new mobility offers.

Sentiment
Opinion towards improved mobility is very nett positive, globally, with only a few reservations mainly related to the possibility of increasing the rich/poor divide and possible delays in consumer demand as people maybe slower to give up their traditional forms of transport than most experts and pundits assume.

Pie Charts
Mobility is an emerging signal with much activity in the ‘evolving’ and ‘gaining traction’ categories that promises huge growth and new income streams going forward. This is likely to be a rest of the century global phenomenon with a tipping point where the public in industrialized countries accept the arrival of a new mobility infrastructure by an estimated tipping point of around 2040.

Geographies

Top ten countries involved in improving mobility are Australia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Qatar, Austria, China, India, Malaysia, Nigeria And Saudi Arabia who are not only looking to improve mobility but to reduce pollution and traffic jams.

Cities leading the way include New York, Melbourne, Delhi, London, Brussels, Barcelona, Dubai, Vancouver, Helsinki and Detroit

Evidence

Extracted forecasts found by Athena and linked back to the original articles, reports and PowerPoints (Insights) that she found can be found below using this search term:

• mobility 

urban private car journey

• Adoption of MaaS platforms will replace over 2.3 billion urban private car journeys annually by 2023.
  

service

• The automated mobility as a service or robo-taxi paradigm is the most transformative use of HAVs all of this leading to trillion-dollar opportunities over the coming decade.
• The worldwide market for Mobility as a Service is expected to grow at a CAGR of roughly 36.8% over the next five years.
• Complex, integrated and intelligent transport systems that support mobility as a service are already in development.
• Automated Mobility Services using electric sedan will decline from 85 ¢ per mile in 2018 to about 35 ¢ per mile by 2035.
• 21% of the global vehicle fleet will be used as part of an automated mobility service by 2035.
• The growth in usage of cognitive security services for data storage of the confidential and private data of an organization and the rise in employee mobility are expected to drive the global cognitive security market.
• A diversification towards on-demand mobility services, connectivity services and feature upgrades could create up to around $1.5 trillion in additional revenue potential in 2030.
• Car2go will be the first and only free-floating carsharing service in Chicago.
• The rewards of unlocking smart mobility could be vast: Innovative mobility services are projected to see a fivefold increase in their share of travel spending by 2040 and generate an estimated $270 billion in revenue and up to $150 billion in profit for providers.
• The market size of the Managed Mobility Services will reach 25918 million $.

market

• Healthcare mobility solutions market is growing rapidly post 2016 with the CAGR of ~24% growth period of this market can be stated as from 2017-2022.
• A progressive 2025 target of 20% CO2 reduction together with a sales target for low and zero emission vehicles will help drive the market in Europe that is currently stagnating through a lack of supply.
• The market for MaaS could be worth $1 trillion by 2030, assuming the introduction of cheap, shared, driverless vehicles builds up consumer desire for on-demand mobility services.
• The autonomous vehicle global market is expected to grow up to $173.1 billion by 2030, with shared mobility services contributing to 65.3%.
• The mobility and connectivity market in Europe will grow to 223 billion euros in 2030.
• Growing emphasis on continuous learning are expected to drive the corporate LMS market to $7 billion by 2023 from $2 billion in 2018.
• The enterprise mobility market accounted for $206.13 billion in 2017 and is expected to reach$ 1,225.78 billion by 2026 growing at a CAGR of 21.9% during the forecast period.
•  

vehicle

• Transport for London in 2018 instituted a tiered licensing fee system for private for-hire providers; the largest such providers (more than 10,000 vehicles) will pay more than US$4 million over five years.
• The private ownership of vehicles with combustion engines will continue to be the most preferred mobility option in the U.S. for years to come.
• Frost & Sullivan predicts that the global car-share market will jump from 7 million members and 112,000 vehicles in 2015 to 36 million members and 427,000 vehicles by 2025.
• The global shared mobility fleet will swell from just under 5 million vehicles today to more than 20 million by 2040.
• 10.000 vehicles could drive on hydrogen in 2023 and some 200.000 in 2028.

car

• Reduced private ownership of cars will eventually result in Demand-Responsive Transit accounting for approximately 50% of the shared mobility market by 2030.
• The mobility-as-a-service industry will purchase more than 10 million cars in 2040.
• By 2030 95% of all personal mobility will be by AEVs and the global fleet of cars will only be 20% of what is it today.
• Volvo will provide on-demand access to cars through a new mobility brand it calls "M": The new service will be available in Sweden and the U.S. starting in spring 2019.
• By 2020, the number of all-electric cars on China's roads is forecast to reach around five million.
• Electric cars alone will not solve the problem of congestion when 75% of us are living in cities by 2050.
• Electric cars will do little for urban mobility and liveability in the years to come.
• In another decade or two, owning an internal-combustion car will be like smoking cigarettes.
  

mobility

• Mobility will be a 200 billion-euro ($227 billion) business by 2040.
• The post-2020 Erasmus will continue to support mobility, cooperation and policy initiatives in the field of higher education.
• The worldwide market for Mobility as a Service is expected to grow at a CAGR of roughly 36.8% over the next five years.
• The mobility and connectivity market in Europe will grow to 223 billion euros in 2030.
• The economic and societal benefits of AVs will approach $800 billion dollars of annual benefits calculated through improvements in mobility, efficiency and safety.
• The mobility as a service industry will continue to grow in the next few years.
• Much of the next decade will be about mobility rather than apps.
• Mobility as a service market is expected to grow to US$358.35 billion by 2025 from US$38.76 billion in 2017.
• Achieving a transportation mix suited to the coming century will require a focus on accessibility more than mobility.
• Complex, integrated and intelligent transport systems that support mobility as a service are already in development.

rate

• Healthcare is no exception to this with the global healthcare mobility solutions market predicted to experience an annual growth rate of 28.3% by 2022.
• The global market for end-of-arm tooling will experience a compound annual growth rate of 9% between 2016 and 2020.
• Hungary (12.6%) will top year-on-year growth rates in fleet leasing sales.
  

fleet

• By 2030 95% of all personal mobility will be by AEVs and the global fleet of cars will only be 20% of what is it today.
• The global shared mobility fleet will swell from just under 5 million vehicles today to more than 20 million by 2040.
• 21% of the global vehicle fleet will be used as part of an automated mobility service by 2035.
  

industry

• Stringent government rules regarding vehicle emissions will further boost the EV market and global car-sharing industry.
• The intelligent mobility industry could be worth £1.4 trillion globally by 2030.
• The intelligent mobility industry could be worth £550bn by 2020.
• The Australian future transport and mobility industry is expected generate more than $16 billion in revenue by 2025.
• The mobility as a service industry will continue to grow in the next few years.
• The mobility-as-a-service industry will purchase more than 10 million cars in 2040.
  

mile

• Automated Mobility Services using electric sedan will decline from 85 ¢ per mile in 2018 to about 35 ¢ per mile by 2035.
• ABI Research finds that high Robo-Taxi vehicle utilization rates above 70% will be required to undercut the current cost of vehicle ownership of $0.71 per mile.
• Transformation could bring the share of electrified miles up to 35% in some US cities by 2030 and decrease the cost per mile by up to 40% while reducing congestion.
• Global vehicle miles travelled will go up 65 percent between 2017 and 2040.
• In the next decades, sales of vehicle miles traveled on mobility services will become as important as vehicle units sold.
  

mobility framework

• Any deal with the EU will include a mobility framework so that UK and EU citizens can continue to travel to each other's territories.
• The UK will end the free movement of people from the EU although it hopes to establish a mobility framework to govern the ability of EU citizens to travel, study and work in the UK.
• The new UK / EU deal will include a mobility framework so that UK and EU citizens can continue to travel to each other's territories.
  

Question

• Is the novel development of robotic trousers on course to finally take a working mobility technology into the home?
• Should we give up ownership and control of our data, the key asset that fuels the new age of mobility?
• Do we want platforms that provide a mobility service without owning assets or taking social responsibility for their drivers?
  

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Sources
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 2,256 forecasts in seconds on 25th October 2018 to allow us to publish this report in less than ninety minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish, or we can prepare a full customized and professionally written brief for you to order covering all these forecasts.

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Athena
Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents. 

Athena is apolitical. She will report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not her purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, we recommend you check her veracity before responding to her extracted forecasts.

Just like humans, Athena can be fallible. Do recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, she does not. She might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and she'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in her stride. But, please let us know if you feel her bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate her findings for yourself.

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