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Healthcare worldwide is likely to face increasing disruption through emerging technologies, migration to cities and through climate change and wars plus increasingly ageing populations in the West.
Pharmaceuticals are top of the list for disruption due the rising influence of biosimilars as many patents expire in the next five years and the cost of producing new drugs and issues with affordability and over-the-counter pharma rise. Media and entertainment rise too with growth in wearables, personal sensors that entertain as much as manage health and health tourism is expected to grow as consumers look for cheaper and more exciting destinations to manage their health.
By 2025, Athena suggests that AI will be a key driver in improving health outcomes and managing staff and patient services. Obesity will continue to be a growing healthcare concern and healthcare will be severely disrupted by many now emerging technologies.
Attitudes to health have been nett neutral for several years. This may well change in future decades as climate change and geopolitics forces more migrants to shelter in cities. Tensions may well boil over between the haves and the have nots if city authorities fail to cope with rising influxes of people seeking safety and security, and good health.
Athena calculates that the tipping point for the transformation of healthcare worldwide will be around 2042 from aggregating the views of all her sources. (The tipping piont is when 33% of citizens believe that what changes have occurred have always been the status quo of modern living).
Similarly, those same sources collectively rank the issue as one of the Very Highest sectors ripe for disruption and assess future Impact in the Billions and Trillions range with 62.6% placing it in early stage development with 19.9% feeling the changes are already gaining traction.
The cloud shows the enormous range of associated topics that will drive or be affected by the transformation of healthcare in the coming decades. We recommend you explore associated topics of interest to you at shapingtomorrow.com and then anticipate and prepare for emerging opportunities and risks accordingly.
The heat map highlights which sectors and countries show the most opportunity. Three countries stand out: the USA, UK and China and also how many countries healthcare systems will need to be transformed with the coming disruptive changes above.
The geographical map below shows the same picture as the Cross-Impact above in terms of where to expect changes in healthcare. Canada, Argentina, Germany and South Africa and Venezuela also join the list of most likely disrupted countries below.
Patient care, new technologies, efforts to contain new diseases and solve old ones with better data, service and care head the topic list with the NHS and Medicare, Medicaid and changes in EU healthcare policies likely to lead the transformation. Donald Trump also stands out as a disruptive and unpredictable actor as he does on so many issues
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 5,466 forecasts in seconds on the 27th September 2018 to allow us to publish this summary in less than an hour. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish, or we can prepare a full customized and professionally written brief for you to order covering all 15,262 forecasts. You can also use these forecasts in collaborative workshops to develop your strategic responses in hours rather than the weeks and months of traditional foresight projects.
Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents.
Athena is apolitical. She will report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not her purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, we recommend you check her veracity before responding to her extracted forecasts.
Just like humans, Athena can be fallible.
o recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, she does not. She might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and she'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in her stride. But, please let us know if you feel her bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate her findings for yourself.
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