Read on to discover what our robot, Athena, has found on the political outlook and act accordingly, or click any link to read the evidence she found in 6,648 reports, articles and presentations from the web and social media in a few seconds.

If you are new to foresight, we recommend you view this slide presentation first to get the best out of this report.

Quick Summary

The new summary visuals below are completely machine produced, showing our robot's global analysis of:

• top driving forces
• causations
• potential solutions
• radars of the key topics underlying these forces
• cloud representations of the organizations and sectors driving or influencing change.

Driving Forces (Beta)


What is changing?

Causations (Beta)

Who and what are causing these changes:

Potential solutions

What are others doing to seize opportunities or minimise risks?

You can learn more, click through to more detail on 'political outlooks' and run collaborative, digital  workshops on these findings at .

More analysis
This summary analysis draws from our robot's below visualizations of on the future political outlook and draws from different vantage points to tell the story of what's emerging just like a GPS system.

Cloud: Not surprisingly, politics is still driven by the old adage 'It's the economy stupid!', by the need to protect the public from security risks and to win elections.

Systems map: But, the prime discourse of the day is about global trade sanctions, protectionism, rising military threats, and many forthcoming important elections, particularly in Europe, which threaten the status quo.  That could lead to a breakup of the EU in the years ahead and maybe in the US too if circumstances were right. And, the political problems in Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine, North Korea, Syria, Turkey, Libya and Taipei continue with America, Russia and China in confrontational competition with each other.

Radar chart: In addition, politicians are concerned about the rise of fake news generated by rogue actors, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and protection of privacy, and security. The IT industry is therefore under scrutiny.

Spline chart: The two Spline Charts we have again provided this week show just how political issues have risen in the last three years. Since Donald Trump's polarizing election and his pugilistic approach to making America great again, the world has taken a different path. The rise of nationalism in Europe has also added to the public discourse. It remains to be seen if these are temporary or permanent changes in political paths. Ten years after the 1929 Crash populists were on the rise with disastrous consequences for the world. It's now a decade on from the Great Crash and populists are on the rise again. 'Those who don't read history are doomed to relive it.' Our politicians need to wake up and smell the new coffee!

Sentiment: Positive sentiments are finely balanced against negative public political feelings. Concerns are being increasingly voice about the increased risk of a global recession due to political uncertainties, mass migrations due to increasing climate change, non-reversible damage to the environment and species and potential wars. The natives are restless for change and want their politicians to act now; not kick the can down the road.

Pie Charts: Despite these concerns, political issues are not high on the priority list for most people and organizations. Most desires for political change are still in the early stages or gaining traction. This would suggest that populism will continue to rise unless traditional political parties get their house in order and listen and act quickly on their publics concerns. But, sudden and unexpected global or regional shock, could accelerate or reverse the trend very quickly. We recommend the creation of scenarios around sudden economic shock/ continued growth and global political accord/discord to guide your organizations strategic thinking and its ability to remain agile and resilient to these growing uncertainties.

Heat map: The Heat Map shows the current weak efforts of governments to drive positive change in their countries and regions. National and regional governments the world over could be doing a lot more to create positive change and in so doing retain their influence and power.

Emergent Drivers: The emergent drivers chart shows which G20 countries are in the van or the back of the bus on political issues.

USA, Japan, UK, and China are in the van with Trade, the Olympics and China's growth plans dominating the discussions. South Africa, Turkey, Argentina and South Korea are at the back of the bus.

Cities: Cities are playing an increasing role in setting and arguing for changes in political issues. European and Middle Eastern cities are at the heart of this trend.

SWOT: This is the first time since many previously published Trend Alerts that the SWOT chart shows considerably more Threats and Weaknesses than Opportunities or Strengths. Perhaps, therefore the public is increasingly populist because they see their politicians as incapable of seizing opportunities and significantly reducing threats.

Visuals
For more detailed explanation of the graphics below please click here. All outlooks based on 2025 unless otherwise stated.

Cloud
Not surprisingly, politics is still driven by the adage 'It's the economy stupid!' by the need to protect the public from security risks and to win elections.

System map
But, the prime discourse of the day is about global trade sanctions, protectionism, rising military threats, and many forthcoming important elections, particularly in Europe, which threaten the status quo.  That could lead to a breakup of the EU in the years ahead and maybe in the US too if circumstances were right And, the political problems in Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine, North Korea, Syria, Turkey, Libya and Taipei continue with America, Russia and China in confrontational competition with each other.

Radar chart
In addition, politicians are concerned about the rise of fake news generated by rogue actors, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and protection of privacy, and security. The IT industry is therefore under scrutiny.

Graph-It
By 2025, we can expect to see continuing political discourse around how to control data and the actors that gather and supply it. Adequate food provision, required infrastructure/construction, energy supply and changes jobs and employment on a mass scale are also likely to dominate discussions with resulting new regulations on all fronts.

Spline
The two Spline Charts we have again provided this week show just how political issues have risen in the last three years. Since Donald Trump's polarizing election and his pugilistic approach to making America great again, the world has taken a different path. The rise of nationalism in Europe has also added to the public discourse. It remains to be seen if these are temporary or permanent changes in political paths.

Trend Wave - Today

Trend Wave – 3 years ago

Ten years after the 1929 Crash populists were on the rise with disastrous consequences for the world. It's now a decade on from the Great Crash and populists are on the rise again. 'Those who don't read history are doomed to relive it.' Our politicians need to wake up and smell the new coffee!

Sentiment

Positive sentiments are finely balanced against negative public political feelings. Concerns are being increasingly voice about the increased risk of a global recession due to political uncertainties, mass migrations due to increasing climate change, non-reversible damage to the environment and species and potential wars. The natives are restless for change and want their politicians to act now, not kick the can down the road.

Pie Charts

Despite these concerns, political issues are not high on the priority list for most people and organizations. Most desires for political change are still in the early stages or gaining traction. This would suggest that populism will continue to rise unless traditional political parties get their house in order and listen and act quickly on their publics concerns. But, sudden and unexpected global or regional shock, could accelerate or reverse the trend very quickly. We recommend the creation of scenarios around sudden economic shock/ continued growth and political accord/discord to guide your organizations strategic thinking and its ability to remain agile and resilient to these growing uncertainties.

Heat map

The Heat Map shows the current weak efforts of governments to drive positive change in their countries and regions. National and regional governments the world over could be doing a lot more to create positive change and in so doing retain their influence and power.

Emergent drivers

The emergent drivers chart shows which G20 countries are in the van or the back of the bus on political issues.

USA, Japan, UK, and China are in the van with Trade, the Olympics and China's growth plans dominating the discussions. South Africa, Turkey, Argentina and South Korea are at the back of the bus.

Cities

Cities are playing an increasing role in setting and arguing for changes in political issues.

European and Middle Eastern cities are at the heart of this trend.

SWOT

This is the first time since many previously published Trend Alerts that the SWOT chart shows considerably more Threats and Weaknesses than Opportunities or Strengths. Perhaps, therefore the public is increasingly populist because they see their politicians as incapable of seizing opportunities and significantly reducing threats.

Questions

• How can a mid-sized country develop national strategy in this world of economic giants and diminished political leadership?
• What effect do recent political trends and executive actions have on the attainment of individual liberty?
• Will the spread of populist politics continue to cause shock geopolitical results?

Evidence

Search term: 'wearable*'. Use this search term to explore our database for more knowledge and wisdom and latest data and information on the topic.

What's Changing?

risk

• A growing sense of impending doom and panic undermines and divides societies, putting at risk our cooperative structures at all levels and stretching the EU's political stability to breaking point.
• The US economy must contend with a myriad of risks, including trade conflict with China, the recent government shutdown and ongoing political uncertainty due to potential debt limit confrontation later this year.
• Venezuela enters 2019 amid profound political turmoil, enormous uncertainty and risks that its crisis could turn into a dangerous military confrontation.
• The Council of the EU endorsed the political agreement reached between the Romanian presidency and the European Parliament on a set of revised rules aimed at reducing risks in the EU banking sector.

uncertainty

• Latin America is expected to see some increase in economic activity in 2019 but ongoing political volatility and slowdowns in some individual markets increase uncertainty.
• WGC expects higher levels of risk and uncertainty this year, due to the elevated market volatility, rising political and economic instability in Europe, and potential higher inflation from protectionist policies.
• A combination of a strengthening U.S. dollar, economic uncertainty, political tensions, and trade wars will conspire to slow IT spending to 1.1% this year - the slowest rate of growth since the economic recovery from the last recession in 2008.

crisis

• Without a political solution to the crisis in Nicaragua, people are likely to continue to flee, UNHCR has warned.
• Venezuela enters 2019 amid profound political turmoil, enormous uncertainty and risks that its crisis could turn into a dangerous military confrontation.
• Venezuela has sunk into turmoil under Maduro with food shortages and daily protests amid an economic and political crisis that has sparked mass emigration and inflation that the International Monetary Fund forecasts will rise to 10 million per cent this year.
• The EU will have to become a federal state mainly because of the economic and social crises within the Eurozone, a political pressure wielded by Russia on the Eastern and Central European countries, and the migration problems, which by 2030 may come to the fore in earnest.

opportunity

• North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia is a win win opportunity as it will help Pyongyang seek political and economic assistance, as well as offering Russia an opportunity to increase its input on the Peninsula issue.
• Political inconsistency in the kingdom scares off investors new investment is necessary for Thailand to modernize its economy: The government's tilt toward authoritarianism provides an opportunity for Beijing to bolster its diplomatic and defense links with Bangkok.
• GND sees climate change to direct federal dollars to stimulate economic, social and political opportunity for those excluded from the 2019 economy.
• The PBF works across pillars and supports integrated UN responses to fill critical gaps; respond quickly and with flexibility to political opportunities; and catalyze processes and resources in a risk-tolerant fashion.

environment

• 2030 will see a more connected fragmented world, with hazardous shifts in demography and energy, and dangerous changes in technology, environment, and politics.
• The principal European real estate markets could see stable performances in 2019 for prime assets, even if some punctual increases are not to be discarded in a changing environment with political risks.
• Europeans may opt to stay in the EU, where they enjoy the benefits of free movement, rather than risk relying on the hospitality of a British government in a febrile political environment.
• 2019 could be just as turbulent given that financial markets are in transition from an unusually supportive environment to a more volatile one of slower growth, reduced liquidity, and heightened political risk.

factor

• Factors like the stabilization of the socio-political situation in the continent, the rise of the middle-class, the growth in the economic index, etc. have made Africa a treasure trove of potential opportunities for almost every major hotel chain in the world.
• By 2030, 14.5 million people will have end-stage kidney disease but only 5.4 million will receive the treatment they need, due to economic, social, and political factors.
• Policy uncertainty, driven by political and geopolitical factors, will affect growth negatively in both years.
• Politics will be the primary factor in Gazprom's final decision regarding Turk Stream, and the political crisis between Ukraine and Russia has blown over from the physical realm, into the spiritual one.

stability

• Kabul's uncertain political situation remains the greatest risk to stability as the GIRoA prepares for the 2019 presidential elections and continues to suffer from weak institutions and a political environment marked by a lack of unity on core issues.
• A growing sense of impending doom and panic undermines and divides societies, putting at risk our cooperative structures at all levels and stretching the EU's political stability to breaking point.
• Namibia's political stability has made it an anchor for governance and security issues in southern Africa-a pattern that is expected to continue after the 2019 elections.
• Venezuelans will likely be disappointed with the pace of the economic turnaround under any new government-a risk that poses a real threat to political stability.
•  

growth

• A combination of a strengthening U.S. dollar, economic uncertainty, political tensions, and trade wars will conspire to slow IT spending to 1.1% this year - the slowest rate of growth since the economic recovery from the last recession in 2008.
• Policy uncertainty, driven by political and geopolitical factors, will affect growth negatively.
• Thailand's post-election economic outlook will largely hinge on political stability and the continuity of key economic policies, especially those designed to drive growth over the next decade or two via investment in the so-called new S-curve industries.
• China's Belt and Road Initiative will continue to be a key element in Beijing's policy strategy throughout 2019, connecting the party-states priorities of sustaining domestic economic growth, promoting China-led infrastructure development and securing political outreach.

pressure

• The Kremlin will likely use a combination of military pressure and political incentives to compel the SDF to capitulate to such a deal with Assad.
• Russia is using multiple instruments of power including military pressure to threaten Ukraine as it approaches a key political milestone that could enable further integration with the West.
• Putting the political pressure aside, will be difficult for the Fed to resist cutting interest rates later this year as global economic weakness weighs on the U.S. economy.
• The EU will have to become a federal state mainly because of the economic and social crises within the Eurozone, a political pressure wielded by Russia on the Eastern and Central European countries, and the migration problems, which by 2030 may come to the fore in earnest.

situation

• Regarding the outlook for the global economy, risk factors such as the politics and financial situation of various countries, the spread of protectionism, and downward economic swings in emerging countries can be seen.
• Kabul's uncertain political situation remains the greatest risk to stability as the GIRoA prepares for the 2019 presidential elections and continues to suffer from weak institutions and a political environment marked by a lack of unity on core issues.
• The political situation in Libya, Iran and Venezuela will need to be considered before a decision on whether to extend the OPEC + production cuts is taken, President Putin said.

confrontation

• Venezuela enters 2019 amid profound political turmoil, enormous uncertainty and risks that its crisis could turn into a dangerous military confrontation.
• Nine out of 10 respondents expect worsening economic and political confrontations between major powers this year.
• 85 per cent of respondents said they expect 2019 to herald more political confrontations between global leaders.
• The US economy must contend with a myriad of risks, including trade conflict with China, the recent government shutdown and ongoing political uncertainty due to potential debt limit confrontation later this year.

instability

• Given the political instability in several of the world's major oil exporters it seems likely that the net amount of oil coming from outside of North America will not grow much if at all in the decade ahead.
• A stuttering start to the year for exports of Swiss watches has put brands on alert, stoking fears that a slowing Chinese economy and political instability in Europe may choke sales growth in the coming months.
• The ongoing conflict in Yemen and political instability in Somalia threaten EU interests by affecting freedom of navigation and further destabilising the Horn of Africa.
• WGC expects higher levels of risk and uncertainty this year, due to the elevated market volatility, rising political and economic instability in Europe, and potential higher inflation from protectionist policies.

Potential Responses

Use the findings of this Trend Alert to determine and rank your options and choose how you can respond by examining your Options either on your own publicly, or collaboratively if our private client.

Contact us if you would like some free training with this Options method.

Options | Gapfinder | Causal Layered Analysis | Scenarios | Three Horizons

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Sources

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Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 6,648 forecasts in seconds on 23rd May 2019 to allow us to publish this report in less than two hours. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish, or we can prepare a full customized and professionally written brief for you to order covering all these forecasts.

Athena
Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents. 

Athena is apolitical. She will report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not her purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, we recommend you check her veracity before responding to her extracted forecasts.

Just like humans, Athena can be fallible. Do recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, she does not. She might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and she'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in her stride. But, please let us know if you feel her bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate her findings for yourself.

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