Summary

Change Drivers

• 26% of global tech leaders say e-Commerce apps and platforms will be the most disruptive new business model in their countries by 2021.
• Digital disruption will hit every industry at some point over the next five years and change the global business landscape.
• 5G is widely expected to be a crucial moment in the global evolution of IT in general.

Analysis

Systems map: The systems map shows the global influence and many expected impacts of the changes expected to business models as technologies such as the IoT, AI, 5G, 3D Printing, the Internet, blockchain etc. effect all industries and most lives. Dramatic changes to manufacturing and supply chains, the mass move to digital from traditional systems to compete efficiently and effectively in the future will destroy many existing business models and replace them with new ones. The next few years will belong to the nimble and agile with the resources and know how to transform complete industries. Industries will be redesigned, much as the newspaper industry was in the late nineties and early 2000's by blogs and wikis.

Radar chart: In 2025, the top areas of emerging business model change will be in networking, media and entertainment, advertising, 3D printing, blockchain, tax, medicine, and buildings.

Graph-It: And also, by 2025, IoT will combine with AI to provide real-time decision-making on everything from energy use to potential fault reporting, soil health to inventory control, far beyond what is humanly possible today.

Spline chart (Beta): This new representation shows the aggregated pundit' and expert' view on where the likely future tipping/inflection points and peak will be for business model changes. The chart shows that the peak for business model change will be between 2028 and 2034 when current expectations are that model transformation will then decline and reach business as usual around 2040. But business model change is no easy feat and takes a lot of time to implement. As will be seen in the evidence below many are already changing their strategies to meet the new realities recognising the significant opportunities, they have to be leaders and to avoid being laggards on the way to obsolescence. If you have not started, along this journey now is the time to begin designing and then implementing your future model. We can help with that having made several dramatic business model shifts in the last three decades that became published case studies: do contact us if interested.

Emerging Drivers: While digitization and AI are today's top technological driving forces, changes to business models are seen my pundits and experts alike as coming relatively soon compared to other emerging drivers but that due to the time taken to switch models the global impact will not be truly seen for some time i.e. 2025 onwards.

Sentiment: Sentiment towards far more effective and efficient business models is generally welcomed by most but experts and pundits worry about the headlong rush to implementation without first ensuring threats such as increasing cyberattacks, greater social inequalities, knee-jerk policy responses etc. are dealt with effectively. Smart organizations will develop their risk response strategy upfront in their model change plans, but we can also expect some spectacular failures too. Think Facebook and its data protection policies as a recent example of a spectacular failure of risk planning.

Pie Charts: The Pie Charts reflect that business model change has yet to grip every organization and that for many, it's still business as usual. But the warning sign is here in that the public will likely endorse new business models fully from 2031 onwards as those who are gaining traction with their ideas cause disruption in their sectors, regions etc. But right now, we can consider business model change at a global level as a weak signal but on the cusp of an emerging global phenomenon that has trillions and billions attached to it.

Year-on-Year: Sector by sector we can see evidence of some sectors beginning to change their models while others continue with business as usual. We find it surprising that with water becoming a far scarcer global resource in the next decade that the water sector has been at the bottom of this chart for the last two years.

Heat map: The Heat Map shows the United States and China vying for leadership, primarily in the Information Technology sector. But the United Kingdom sees opportunities in healthcare while India sees an opportunity in construction.

Geography: Athena reports that, geographically the top ten countries likely to embrace the IOT are India, Brazil. United States, UK, Mexico, Australia, China, South Korea, Italy and Sweden. There are some notable absentees here like Canada, Germany and France.

SWOT: Lastly, the SWOT chart shows a higher level of threat and weaknesses for the reasons mentioned earlier but still with huge global improvement opportunities and existing strengths. Are you ready to inspire engage and enable all your stakeholders with a better business model for mid-21st century? Will you be an Adventurer, Adopter or, Abstainer? We sincerely hope you will be an Adventurer and improve life for everyone and those to follow us.

Potential Solutions (New):

• Open Banking will unite banks and FinTech in creating a new world.
• AI for CRM will soon become a global economic engine for new innovation, business models and jobs.
• The winners in this new digital world will challenge conventional thinking on product innovation, customer engagement, organizational structure, strategy and business models.

Visuals
For more detailed explanation of the graphics below please click here. All outlooks based on 2025 unless otherwise stated.

System map
The systems map shows the global influence and many expected impacts of the changes expected to business models as technologies such as the IoT, AI, 5G, 3D Printing, the Internet, blockchain etc. effect all industries and most lives. Dramatic changes to manufacturing and supply chains, the mass move to digital from traditional systems to compete efficiently and effectively in the future will destroy many existing business models and replace them with new ones. The next few years will belong to the nimble and agile with the resources and know how to transform complete industries. Industries will be redesigned, much as the newspaper industry was in the late nineties and early 2000's by blogs and wikis.

Radar
In 2025, the top areas of emerging business model change will be in networking, media and entertainment, advertising, 3D printing, blockchain, tax, medicine, and buildings.

Graph-It
And, by 2025, the health, networking, service, manufacturing and energy grid sectors are likely to be in the process of and experiencing dramatic transformation.

Spline (Beta)
This new representation shows the aggregated pundit' and expert' view on where the likely future tipping/inflection points and peak will be for business model changes. The chart shows that the peak for business model change will be between 2028 and 2034 when current expectations are that model transformation will then decline and reach business as usual around 2040. But business model change is no easy feat and takes a lot of time to implement. As will be seen in the evidence below many are already changing their strategies to meet the new realities recognising the significant opportunities, they have to be leaders and to avoid being laggards on the way to obsolescence. If you have not started, along this journey now is the time to begin designing and then implementing your future model. We can help with that having made several dramatic business model shifts in the last three decades that became published case studies: do contact us if interested.

The blue line represents the five-year moving average of the aggregated splines that can be seen in background.

Emerging Drivers
While digitization and AI are today's top technological driving forces, changes to business models are seen my pundits and experts alike as coming relatively soon compared to other emerging drivers but that due to the time taken to switch models the global impact will not be truly seen for some time i.e. 2025 onwards.

Sentiment
Sentiment towards far more effective and efficient business models is generally welcomed by most but experts and pundits worry about the headlong rush to implementation without first ensuring threats such as increasing cyberattacks, greater social inequalities, knee-jerk policy responses etc. are dealt with effectively. Smart organizations will develop their risk response strategy upfront in their model change plans, but we can also expect some spectacular failures too. Think Facebook and its data protection policies as a recent example of a spectacular of risk planning.

Pie Charts
The Pie Charts reflect that business model change has yet to grip every organization and that for many, it's still business as usual. But the warning sign is here in that the public will likely endorse new business models fully from 2031 onwards as those who are gaining traction with their ideas cause disruption in their sectors, regions etc. But right now, we can consider business model change at a global level as a weak signal but on the cusp of an emerging global phenomenon that has trillions and billions attached to it.

Year-on-Year
Sector by sector we can see evidence of some sectors beginning to change their models while others continue with business as usual. We find it surprising that with water becoming a far scarcer global resource in the next decade that the water sector has been at the bottom of this chart for the last two years.

Heat map
The Heat Map indicates that the UK, USA and China will be the likely leaders in business model change especially in Energy, IT, and Support Services and with geopolitics playing its part too.

Geography
Similarly, the geomap shows the USA, China and the UK to be joined by Brazil, India, Ireland, Australia, Chile and Mexico in leading country commercial model changes.

SWOT
Lastly, the SWOT chart shows a higher level of threat and weaknesses for the reasons mentioned earlier but still with huge global improvement opportunities and existing strengths. Are you ready to inspire engage and enable all your stakeholders with a better business model for mid-21st century? Will you be an Adventurer, Adopter or, Abstainer? We sincerely hope you will be an Adventurer and improve life for everyone and those to follow us.

A few Potential Solutions (automatically selected by Athena from our database)

Open Banking will unite banks and FinTech in creating a new world.

AI for CRM will soon become a global economic engine for new innovation, business models and jobs.

The winners in this new digital world will challenge conventional thinking on product innovation, customer engagement, organizational structure, strategy and business models.

Evidence

Extracted forecasts found by Athena and linked back to the original articles, reports and PowerPoints (Insights) that she found can be found below using this search term:

• "Business model*”

model

• By 2030, it is predicted that 95 percent of US passenger miles will be served by on-demand autonomous EVs owned by fleets in a business model dubbed transport-as-a-service (TaaS), whose market size is expected to exceed $120 billion by 2025.
• Industry after industry is being disrupted by new business models supported by technology platforms: The rate of an industry's disruption can be dramatic as exampled by firms like Uber which has redefined the for-hire personal transportation business.
• In order to improve its economic outlook and the viability of its business model, Toyota is seeking to make significant investments in both the UK (£240M) and the US ($10Bn) to develop markets and reduce exchange rate risks.
• 100% of players in the energy market expect it to be completely turned upside down by digital disruption within the next five years, and 86% are said to already be transforming their business model as a result.
• Slowing global growth will lead to consumers spending less, meaning businesses will need to drive efficiencies in their operations and focus on their business model and performance.

business

• There will be more failures in 2019 as the 6,000+ PropTech businesses around the world continue to find their place in an industry that is rigid and slow moving but there will be many more successes as businesses start to understand different business models and start to evolve.
• Over the next 10 years the world of work is set to rapidly change, with the World Economic Forum predicting that disruptive changes to business models will have a profound impact on the employment landscape in the coming years.
• Nine out of 10 respondents believe AI will create new value for their business in the next five years.
• The survey found that 76% of business leaders say current business models will be unrecognizable in five years, and that the rise of the ecosystem play will be the main culprit.
• Customers around the world expect personalized treatment and proactive engagement from companies they do business with.
• By 2030, 95 percent of US passenger miles will be served by on-demand autonomous EVs owned by fleets in a business model dubbed transport-as-a-service.

market

• At least 55% of companies will be digitally determined by 2020, transforming markets and reimagining the future through new business models and digitally enabled products and services.
• By 2020, at least 55% of organizations will be digitally determined, transforming markets and reimagining the future through new business models and digitally enabled products and services.
• In order to improve its economic outlook and the viability of its business model, Toyota is seeking to make significant investments in both the UK (£240M) and the US ($10Bn) to develop markets and reduce exchange rate risks.
• 100% of players in the energy market expect it to be completely turned upside down by digital disruption within the next five years, and 86% are said to already be transforming their business model as a result.

transformation

• More than a third (37%) of organizations are pushing business model transformation to drive projected 2020 growth.
• Enterprise Singapore will support upgrading, innovation and business model transformation to capture new revenue streams.
• The next decade will see the global satellite and space launch industry going through a rapid transformation.
• Small and mid-size suppliers who lack global reach and scale will be continually disadvantaged in a fast-paced environment that requires increasing investment and significant business transformation.

revenue

• New business models accounted for just 1-5 percent of 2015 revenues but are expected to be responsible for 30 percent by 2020.
• By 2019, all digitally transformed companies will achieve at least 45% of their revenue with business models such as Future of Commerce.
• PwC projects that the sharing economy could reach global revenues around $US 335 billion by 2025.
• Global automotive revenues will nearly double to around €5,500 billion in 2030 and will mainly originate from disruptive business models, such as mobility as a service and data-enabled services.
• While the appliance business has historically focused on selling metal boxes, 2019 will be the year many appliance brands adapt their business models to include recurring revenue through food sales.
• Total global revenue for emerging business models reshaping the intelligent buildings market is expected to grow to $582 billion in 2027.
• Podcast ad revenues are forecast to double by 2020.

value

• Circular economy business models are expected to unleash $4.5 trillion in value by 2030.
• Digitisation will create an estimated $2 T in value over the next decade.
• Genpact advances the concept of "derivative opportunity value" which means creating an opportunity or an entirely new business model by combining a company's data with external data.
• The implementation of resource efficient business models across the key sectors of the UK economy alone will have delivered a total increase of up to £77bn of gross value added by 2030.
• Nine out of 10 respondents believe AI will create new value for their business in the next five years.
• Sustainable business models could unlock more than US$12 trillion in new market value and create up to 380 million jobs by 2030.

us passenger mile

• By 2030, 95 percent of US passenger miles will be served by on-demand autonomous EVs owned by fleets in a business model dubbed transport-as-a-service.
• By 2030, it is predicted that 95 percent of US passenger miles will be served by on-demand autonomous EVs owned by fleets in a business model dubbed transport-as-a-service (TaaS), whose market size is expected to exceed $120 billion by 2025.

leader

• The survey found that 76% of business leaders say current business models will be unrecognizable in five years, and that the rise of the ecosystem play will be the main culprit.
• The launch of a new business model that puts a utility at the forefront of electric transit operation and service delivery will highlight Canada as a global leader in electric vehicle innovation.
• 26% of global tech leaders say e-Commerce apps and platforms will be the most disruptive new business model in their countries by 2021.
• 76 percent of industry leaders agree that current business models will be unrecognizable in the next five years.

opportunity

• Even as technological advancements pose challenges to existing business models and practices, over the coming years, these same dynamics of technological change are set to become the primary drivers of opportunities for new growth.
• Some investors will be seeing co-working as an opportunity for a new business model, whereas others will just invest in it as a third party.
• Genpact advances the concept of "derivative opportunity value" which means creating an opportunity or an entirely new business model by combining a company's data with external data.
• Blockchain is being used to allow users of services the opportunity to control who accesses their data rather than just handing it over to online providers: Pilot projects open to all residents of Amsterdam and Barcelona will take place this year.

adoption

• The number of organizations needing extended on-premise support will rapidly dwindle in conjunction with spikes in cloud adoption just before big vendor dates like 2025 or 2030.
• India's online education industry is expected to grow exponentially to touch USD1.96 billion by 2021 from USD247 million in 20162, majorly driven by increased consumer adoption supported by changing business models and improvements in product offerings.

entrant

• Competition from ambitious new entrants such as the Chinese carriers are threatening the big three Gulf carriers' position as the chief global superconnectors.
• Sixty-six percent of CEOs expect business model change in the next three years - largely to avoid being Amazoned by a new entrant.

Question

• What should CIOs do to reimagine and implement business model change at scale?
• How does regional fragmentation reshape the business models of platform providers?
• How should financing mechanisms and business models be designed to ensure sustainable services and limited public resources leverage?

Options | Gapfinder | Causal Layered Analysis | Scenarios | Three Horizons

Do contact us to see how we can help you track emerging uncertainty issues and developments as they are announced or reported.

Sources
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 1,916 forecasts in seconds on 17th January 2018 to allow us to publish this report in less than two hours. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish, or we can prepare a full customized and professionally written brief for you to order covering all these forecasts.

Athena
Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents. 
Athena is apolitical. She will report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not her purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, we recommend you check her veracity before responding to her extracted forecasts.

Just like humans, Athena can be fallible. Do recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, she does not. She might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and she'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in her stride. But, please let us know if you feel her bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate her findings for yourself.

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