Trade

[New] Supply chain disruptions and weaker global trade caused by the coronavirus outbreak represent headwinds for Denmark's exporters and importers early this year.
[New] Growth is expected to be 2.4% in 2020 - the weakest growth rate since the Global Crisis, despite accommodative financial conditions and signs of easing trade tensions.
[New] On the back of weakening economic growth everywhere, especially in the US and in Europe, and trade tensions with the US and China, and political strife in Iran and elsewhere, the coronavirus health crisis will now be remembered for breaking the camel's back in 2020.
[New] Failure to achieve a UK-EU arrangement conducive to trade is also a key risk to the outlook for the UK economy as disruption in early 2021 could adversely affect economic conditions.
[New] Deutsche Bank economists expect UK GDP to contract by 4% this year, as the economy is hit by weaker global growth, a slowdown in Europe, its largest trading partner, supply chain disruptions and a drop in business activity related to social distancing measures.
[New] The slowdown of manufacturing in China due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is disrupting world trade and could result in a $50 billion decrease in exports across global value chains.
[New] Although the growth in global trade is likely to slow down this year, Pakistan must consider developing its export sector to take advantage of opportunities as a result of challenges reported by the large manufacturing powerhouses.
[New] Supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak in China have dampened trade activity in the first two months of 2020, both from a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity and in broader shipping activity.
[New] Q1 and Q2 2020 bring market trading conditions that will test the depths of alternative markets to Australia's number one fresh produce export destination, China.
[New] A flare-up in trade tensions, increase in uncertainty over Brexit, or re-escalation of hostilities with Iran could all increase volatility in global oil and financial markets.
China's phase - one trade deal with the US as well as the accommodative policy stance of many central banks will support increased risk appetite.
This, combined with expected more than 2-million-bpd supply growth from non-OPEC countries not part of the OPEC + deal in 2020, could continue weighing on oil prices, especially if a trade deal is not reached and economies in Asia continue to suffer.
Growth of the semiconductor market in 2021 will be positive, provided there is not a further disruption in supply chains from the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
Looking ahead, growth is expected to slow down further in 2021 as a result of the weakening impact of tax cuts, the uncertainty related to the trade war that continues to weigh on companies and the spread of the Coronavirus in China, which is a major US trade partner.
The sharp slowdown in China's economy makes it unlikely that China this year will meet its commitment, under the trade agreement it signed with the US in January, to dramatically increase imports from the US.
If Trump is waging a trade war with Europe, the appetite to go along with Washington's plans to curb technology exports to China will be limited.
Looking into early 2020, any positive impacts of the 'phase one' trade agreement with the US likely will be countered by the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
The value of the FTSE 100 dropped by £44 billion last month and luxury retail groups saw their shares drop as coronavirus fears continued to impact trading.
US pigmeat exports to China could double to 600,000 tonnes during 2020, aided by the recent 'phase one' trade agreement between the two nations.
Volumes in closing auctions in Europe will continue to rise by 3% to 4% each year and reach 50% of all European trading activity within eight years.
Trade tensions between the US, China and the EU, and uncertainty with respect to the stability of some European economies will hopefully fade in early 2020 and will positively impact overall IPO sentiment.

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Last updated: 29 March 2020