Trade [New] The growth forecast for Mexico is below that of its North American trade partners, the United States and Canada, which the IMF predicts will suffer contractions of 8% and 8.4%, respectively, in 2020. [New] More recently, in the first semester of 2020, COVID-19-related disruptions to the local markets and trade, already hampered by the lingering impact of the prolonged conflict, provided further support, as did the lower imports due to the border screening implemented by the Government of Uganda. [New] The UK has secured a free trade agreement with Japan, which is the UK's first major trade deal as an independent trading nation and will increase trade with Japan by an estimated £15.2 billion. [New] If no trade agreement is completed by the end of the year, the UK will not have any formal deal with the EU - which accounted for 43% of UK exports in 2019. [New] Irish businesses should act on the assumption that the UK and EU will fail to reach a free trade agreement before the end of the year. [New] Credit rating agency Fitch has revised its Brexit view and now expects the UK-EU trade relationship to move to World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms at the start of next year due to the lack of progress in talks. [New] China's steel exports have been subject to 15 new anti-dumping investigations in the first nine months of the year, more than all of last year, as experts warn that the US-China trade war and the coronavirus pandemic have hastened a trend towards global protectionism. [New] The EU is considering linking its emissions trading system with a new British carbon market, which Britain plans to set up when it leaves the EU scheme at the end of 2020 as the Brexit transition period ends. Economic growth will take a hit for 2020 as trade flows and prices are still affected by multi-country lockdowns even though many supply chains are starting to get back to some semblance of normality. World trade in thermal coal is expected to decline at an average annual rate of around 1% a year between 2019 and 2025. The B2B media sector, which includes business information, directory advertising, trade magazines, professional books, and trade shows, will post a decrease of 13.7% to EUR 194 million but will recover in the coming years at an average growth rate of 3.27% per year. In the second half of 2020, China is expected to receive about 80 million oil barrels over July-December based at the current buying pace, as Beijing steps up efforts to comply with the Phase 1 trade deal. World trade in cereals for 2020-21 is forecast at 441.4 million tonnes, 1.6% above 2019-21 due to anticipated larger shipments of rice and coarse grains. Over the coming decade, sugar exports are projected to remain highly concentrated, with Brazil consolidating its position as the leading exporter (from 35% of world trade in the base period to 38% by 2029). The AfCFTA agreement seeks to create a single African market of over a billion consumers with a total GDP of over $3 trillion; a figure that will make Africa the largest free trade area in the world. With a combined market of over 1.2 billion people (which is expected to grow to 2.5 billion by 2050) and a GDP of $2.5 trillion, AfCFTA could potentially make Africa the largest free trade area in the world since the formation of the World Trade Organisation. Covid-19 will further negatively impact national incomes in the following years because of lower investment, an erosion of human capital through lost work and schooling, and fragmentation of global trade and supply linkages. Connecting 1.3 billion people across 55 countries, the AfCFTA will create the largest free trade area in the world with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) valued at $3.4 trillion. Companies risk losing more than 40% of annual profit once a decade in a world threatened by trade wars, cyber attacks, pandemics and climate change. The World Bank forecasts a 5.2% contraction in global GDP in 2020, the deepest global recession in decades, which are expected to leave lasting scars through lower investment, an erosion of human capital through lost work and schooling, and fragmentation of global trade and supply linkages. China is expected to overcome coronavirus impacts and impose CO2 curbs on coal power stations as planned in 2020 under its national emissions trading scheme, although observers say the market launch itself may well only happen in the very last days of 2020. Talks between the UK and the US focusing on a trade pact were postponed earlier in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, but will continue to make progress in September. See full forecast Last updated: 20 September 2020 Hi, Would you like a quick online demo of our service from an experienced member of our team? Yes No Hi, Would you like a quick online demo of our service from an experienced member of our team? Yes No
