Ukraine Conflict

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

17 June 2025
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
In the year and a half since the conflict in Ukraine began, global food prices have been volatile and unpredictable. Action Against Hunger
Conversations on global peace that would have focused on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel's war on Gaza will now likely pivot to Iran. Al Jazeera
Faced with repeated warnings from Putin of Russia's nuclear might, the US and its allies have been wary throughout the Ukraine conflict of the risk that it could spiral into World War Three. RNZ
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • As both nations maintain a battle-ready culture, Ukraine, like Israel, will need to remain in a constant state of readiness for conflict, driven by ongoing threats and the necessity for resolute decision-making, strong democratic practices, and institutional capacity. CEPA
  • With the Ukraine conflict exposing vulnerabilities, NATO's reinforced presence in the Baltic area and Poland has never been more essential. Atlantic Council
  • Geopolitical conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and escalating tensions in the Middle East, have amplified energy security risks, reshaping trade flows and reinforcing regional dependencies. Policy Center
Weaknesses
  • The Ukraine conflict has exposed the way that critical manpower shortages limit traditional military engagement and, simultaneously demonstrates the potential for novel and inexpensive deployment of technology. Seeing Over the Horizon
  • Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict or U.S.-China trade disputes, could trigger sudden spikes in oil, gas, or industrial metal prices, reigniting inflation. World Economic Trends Report
  • The potential for a bona fide peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains ambiguous.
Opportunities
  • Crimea will stay with Russia, as divergent peace plans emerge around the Ukraine conflict. Global Post Headline
  • Wildfires around Canada's major oil sands facilities in Alberta, elevated tensions in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well a potential force majeure on oil exports in Libya have the potential to disrupt supply. EIA - Energy Information Administration
  • Countries around the world are investing heavily in drone technology, and the lessons learned from conflicts like the one in Ukraine will undoubtedly shape future military strategies. Breaking News Now
Threats
  • The distribution of Ukraine's vast mineral wealth will not only shape the outcome of the conflict but also influence Europe's energy future and the global supply of critical minerals and rare earths, not to mention hydrocarbons and agricultural commodities. CIRSD
  • Discussions will likely span artificial intelligence, global economic imbalances, defence partnerships, and regional stability - including the Israel-Iran conflict and support for Ukraine. Piedmont Crescent Capital
  • The British army's war-fighting arm, 3rd (UK) Division, could become combat-ineffective within six months in a Ukraine-style conflict due to casualties and exhaustion. The Independent
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
UAV, accident, company, conflict, connect, invasion
Emerging
UAV, pandemic, artificial intelligence, EV, country, bitcoin
Maturing
conflict, war, country, invasion, attack, commodity
Declining
conflict, economy, crisis, war, commodity, demand
Sentiment
Past Year: More Positive
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
In the year and a half since the conflict in Ukraine began, global food prices have been volatile and unpredictable. Action Against Hunger
The ongoing conflict has drawn worldwide attention, and the depletion of Russian forces could lead to shifts in how countries approach their support for Ukraine. Trends Newsline
PEST
Political
  • A 'frozen conflict' will lead to Vladimir Putin's Russian army returning to Ukraine with aggression. Daily Mail
  • Geopolitical Conflicts: Ongoing conflicts, inclusive of the struggle in Ukraine, have improved cyber vulnerabilities in crucial sectors like energy, telecommunications, and nuclear energy. iasexam.com
  • Back to the war in Ukraine, the future remains unwritten, a testament to human resilience and the unpredictable nature of conflict. 2025
Economic
  • The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has had, and will continue to have, a profound impact on the economic landscapes of both Ukraine and Russia, significantly influencing the possibility and scale of any future counteroffensive. 2025
  • The Russia-Ukraine war, the Turkey earthquake and the Palestine-Israel conflict, as well as high interest rates and inflation have impacted steel demand and will continue to do so. EUROMETAL - The Voice of European Steel, Tubes and Meta
  • Global energy prices will increase in 2025 due to a range of variables: growing demand, high wholesale prices, rising production costs, cold weather, declining gas inventories, and prolonged conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East. Telesto - Strategy
Social
  • As the global security environment grows more complex, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the pacing challenge posed by China, and ongoing threats posed by Iran and North Korea, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. U.S. Department of Defense
  • Countries like Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark have started distributing survival leaflets to their citizens amid rising security concerns, especially due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and fears of Russian aggression. Protothema English
  • Significant global supply chain disruptions over the past decade, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the US-China trade war, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have emphasized the need for robust risk management strategies. Dmytro Tkalych
Technological
  • Demobilized drone talent and experience from the conflict in Ukraine will fuel an acceleration in the use and effectiveness of weaponized drones - distilling the potency of an already serious threat. War on the Rocks
  • When the conflict in Ukraine inevitably ends, Russia and Ukraine will be forced to fully or partially demobilize, which will release thousands to tens of thousands of veterans back to civilian life with expertise in designing, building, and employing weaponized drones. War on the Rocks
  • Before the all-out war in Ukraine, future conflicts were envisioned as a high-tech struggle that would require smaller, highly capable units. CEPA
Financial Impact
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has not only reshaped the geopolitical landscape but has also raised critical questions about the flow of weapons, particularly the potential for armaments to reach Russia.
Limiting the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be a red line in the peace talks on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. EADaily
Macro / geopolitical risks magnify the value of diversifiers: Macroeconomic risks, including wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, trade conflicts, high equity valuations, and the threat of resurgent inflation make diversifiers like gold, other metals, and commodities more compelling. Comerica
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
The United States will be able to focus on other parts of the world - mainly Asia and China - and restore the stocks of weapons depleted during the conflict on Ukraine. EADaily
The rapid evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine offers a glimpse into the future of global conflict, where AI-driven autonomous systems will play an ever-larger role. [your]NEWS
The three-year conflict in Ukraine has cost up to one million military deaths, millions of refugees across Europe, and broken economies, not to mention the danger of it turning into World War Three. Strategic Culture Foundation
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The regional Ukraine conflict has now assumed elements of a global nature, and warned that further attacks with Western weapons would result in retaliatory strikes on targets of Moscow's choosing. The Automatic Earth
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated beyond what anyone imagined, and the potential for global destruction is real. Operation Disclosure Official
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The resolution of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, as promised by Trump, coupled with a proposed 25% tariff on imports to the U.S., including oil and gas from Canada and Mexico, poses a moderate risk to global oil prices. Businessday NG
The year 2025 will be pivotal for geopolitical factors globally, including conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East as well as elections in Germany. ANZ Institutional Insights
Collaborate on Conflict Mediation: BRICS + could become an important mediator in global conflict resolution, offering a platform for dialog on regional tensions in Africa, the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine. PWOnlyIAS
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
A long-term semi-frozen conflict in Ukraine will be extremely bad for the economies of the EU; and we have seen in Romania and elsewhere how allegations of Russian influence have been used to justify extremely undemocratic measures by ruling elites. Responsible Statecraft
A post-conflict situation in Europe (assuming an end to the Ukraine war) will ultimately reset the sanctions regime against Russia, and - depending on Beijing's peace-maker intentions - could facilitate warmer east-west relations. The Conversation
Global economies continue to face multiple headwinds heading into 2024: the continued conflict in Ukraine, extreme weather catastrophes, population migration trends, a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in Mainland China, and ongoing risks of financial stress from tightening monetary policies.
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
A severe slowdown in the global economy last year following the Covid-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine is set to continue in 2023 and could persist for the next five years. The Automatic Earth
The continuing conflict in Ukraine by Russia is further delaying fertilizer imports to many sub-Saharan African countries, which will have an impact in the coming years. IFDC
Questions
Can?
Trump 2.0, conflict in Ukraine to end and China challenging global world order - what can we expect in 2025? Original 106
Considering the war in Gaza, Russia's onslaught in Ukraine and conflict in Sudan, can we still speak of a prewar era? DNyuz
What Can The Conflict In Ukraine Teach Us About The Future Of Warfare? Texas A&M Today
How?
Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Gaza, India and Pakistan - How many other conflicts are there in the world? World in Prayer
How should banking leaders navigate the risks posed by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside the intricate dynamics of the US-China relationship? Global Banking Summit
How is SES supporting Europe's push for sovereign space capabilities amid geopolitical uncertainties, such as the conflict in Ukraine and questions over external military support? SpaceNews
What?
What is the role of the United States, European Union, and Russia in the conflict in Ukraine? POINT WEB
What is the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the global economy? POINT WEB
What are the short-term and long-term impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Europe's energy transformation? NenPower
When?
When the conflict in Ukraine has started, where is the United Nations? Russian Council
Will?
On the military front, will the conflict in Ukraine finally come to an end, and how will Europe navigate its aftermath? Professional industrial design services, High value-add
Or will Pyongyang's role in the conflict change Beijing's approach to the war in Ukraine? United States Institute of Peace
For example, what will be the effects of rising geopolitical tensions - the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, competition with China - on markets? Harvard Law School
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