Ukraine Conflict

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

24 March 2023
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Given that billions of dollars in arms are being sent to Ukraine and countries around the world are boosting their defence budgets in anticipation of a new era of global conflict, you might think this past year would have been a boom time for the weapons business. Grid News
Even if the response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict by India and the EU do not align, India and Europe will be essential for each other in the coming decade, especially in times of global polarization. The Diplomat
Russia and Ukraine controlled 30% of global wheat exports in 2021 and the ongoing conflict could keep global prices unstable until 2024. The New Arab
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • If the U.S. government hopes to retain domestic support for its efforts in Ukraine and ensure that weapons are not diverted to other conflict contexts, it must develop robust and innovative monitoring mechanisms. Lawfare
  • Agile statecraft, and a diplomatic strategy that provides benefits for Ukraine and NATO, Turkey and its non-NATO allies, and even Russia offer the opportunity for conflict termination, regional stabilization, and reduced costs and threats to the U.S. national interest. Hoover Institution
  • Europe must prepare for the grim prospect of a long war, but the best way to ensure a stable peace - and to reduce conflict potential in East Asia as well-may well go through helping Ukraine achieve a swift and decisive victory. Jamestown
Weaknesses
  • Xi's refusal to explicitly align China with Russia in Putin's envisioned geopolitical conflict with the West is a notable departure from China's declared no limits partnership with Russia preceding the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Institute for the Study of War
  • The global economy is expected to continue to face uncertainties and disruptions from the effects of inflation and rising interest rates, and geo-political conflicts from the year-long war in Ukraine. The Asian Banker
  • Many factors remain that make 2023 highly unpredictable: the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the cost-of-living crisis, China's economic slowdown, and other concerns. Workday Blog
Opportunities
  • The actions of OPEC, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inventory levels of natural gas and oil and the uncertainty associated with demand, as well as other factors, have the potential to impact future oil and gas prices. Stockhouse
  • Due to the conflict in Ukraine, Italy is seeking to improve domestic energy security and expects to become independent of Russian gas by the second half of 2024 (INTERNATIONAL TRADE ADMINISTRATION. Atalayar
  • The US secretary of state has voiced scepticism over China's peace proposals to end the Ukraine conflict, warning they could be a stalling tactic to help Russian troops on the ground in Ukraine. The Guardian
Threats
  • With no apparent end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, uncertainty about weather influences, and the US supply and inventory, it seems certain that gas prices will remain volatile for the foreseeable future. gasworld
  • Smaller majorities see the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global warming and Russia's military power as critical threats to U.S. vital interests. Gallup.com
  • China has sought to portray itself as a neutral party in the Ukraine conflict, but Washington has said Beijing's moves could be a stalling tactic to help Moscow. Hong Kong Free Press
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
UAV, accident, company, conflict, connect, invasion
Emerging
EV, UAV, pandemic, bitcoin, country, cost
Maturing
conflict, country, war, commodity, invasion, attack
Declining
conflict, crisis, economy, commodity, war, oil
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Given that billions of dollars in arms are being sent to Ukraine and countries around the world are boosting their defence budgets in anticipation of a new era of global conflict, you might think this past year would have been a boom time for the weapons business. Grid News
One in five developing countries will not see their Gross Domestic Product return to 2019 levels by the end of 2023, even before absorbing the impacts of the Ukraine conflict, which is already affecting food, energy, and finance across the globe. UN News
PEST
Political
  • Smaller majorities see the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global warming and Russia's military power as critical threats to U.S. vital interests. Gallup.com
  • The global economy is expected to continue to face uncertainties and disruptions from the effects of inflation and rising interest rates, and geo-political conflicts from the year-long war in Ukraine. The Asian Banker
  • If the U.S. government hopes to retain domestic support for its efforts in Ukraine and ensure that weapons are not diverted to other conflict contexts, it must develop robust and innovative monitoring mechanisms. Lawfare
Economic
  • With no apparent end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, uncertainty about weather influences, and the US supply and inventory, it seems certain that gas prices will remain volatile for the foreseeable future. gasworld
  • Although the Ukraine conflict brought renewed focus on energy security, counterintuitively, the post-pandemic commodity price spikes fuelled fiscal changes that will likely weaken energy security. Shares Magazine
  • Egypt's current inflationary wave is being fueled by a shortage of hard currency, particularly the US dollar, and by elevated prices of commodities and goods, due to global supply chain disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Ahram Online
Social
  • 1.5 million children impacted by conflict in Ukraine are in danger of developing a mental health disorder. World Vision Advocacy
  • A year into a conflict with no clear end in sight, hopes of any near-term return to Ukraine have largely been dashed for a population given temporary status and just two years to remain in the U.S. The Hill
  • The nature of risks to AFF especially among smallholders is becoming more complex than ever, exacerbated by the impacts of unprecedented extreme events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian Federation-Ukraine conflict. Food and Agriculture Organisation
Technological
  • Cyberwar events in and around the Ukraine conflict will continue. MedPressIT GbR
  • A rise in political tensions and escalation of the conflict in Ukraine are all factors that play into the current cybersecurity threat landscape. The Cloudflare Blog
  • The longer the Ukraine/Russia conflict continues, and the greater that east / west tensions increase, the possibility of physical supply chain cyber disruption will equally increase through 2023, and possibly beyond. SecurityWeek
Financial Impact
The conflict in Ukraine could knock $1 trillion off the value of the world economy and add 3% to global inflation in 2022 by triggering another supply chain crisis. The Times Of India
Assuming no direct military involvement in the conflict in Ukraine but a gradual ramping up of the defense effort, additional military spending in the EU could easily reach €20 billion in 2022 and twice as much in 2023. PIIE
Assuming no direct military involvement in the conflict in Ukraine but a gradual ramping up of the defence effort, additional military spending in the EU could easily reach €20 billion in 2022 and twice as much in 2023. Bruegel
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
The Ukraine conflict might be the US and Europe's top priority, but with India enjoying excellent relations with both Ukraine and Russia, it needs to be looking at the rest of the world too. The Pioneer
The new global route will be developed in partnership with the UNHCR refugee agency, but will mark a departure from previous resettlement schemes which have focused on individual conflicts and countries such as Syria, Afghanistan and Ukraine. iNews
The implications of a cross-strait conflict could have devastating consequences for the global economy that far outweigh the destabilizing effects of Russia's war in Ukraine. Newsweek
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
While the conflict in Ukraine did not cause hunger crises, it did exacerbate the vulnerability of local, regional, and global food systems already threatened by conflict, climate change, chronic inequality, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Action Against Hunger
Ukraine conflict has shown the potential to reshape global alliances and Russia has warned Israel against supplying weapons to Ukraine. Indian Punchline
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The 2020s have been defined by disruption on an unprecedented scale as the impact of the global pandemic, the Ukraine conflict and the resulting energy crisis took hold. FastMarkets
Russia's war in Ukraine has raised geopolitical tensions in the Arctic, as it has globally, creating new risks of unintended conflict and hindering cooperation. U.S. Government
Soaring energy costs and fears of famine in parts of the world show how the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two, now in its sixth month and with no resolution in sight, is having an impact far from Ukraine. Reuters
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Conflict, weather extremes, economic shocks, the lingering impacts of Covid-19, and the ripple effects from the war in Ukraine will push millions of people across the world into poverty and hunger. The National
Soaring energy prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push up to 141 million more people around the globe into extreme poverty, a study has found. investing.com
Rising energy prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push up to 141 million more people around the globe into extreme poverty. The Guardian
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The continuing conflict in Ukraine by Russia is further delaying fertilizer imports to many sub-Saharan African countries, which will have an impact in the coming years. IFDC
In the coming year, SpaceX plans to demonstrate Starship's orbital launch capabilities and further Starlink's global reach, which has proven invaluable for connecting remote and underserved areas and in conflict, such as in Ukraine. Journal of Cyber Policy
Questions
Can?
How can one understand relations between China and Russia a year into the Ukraine conflict? United States Institute of Peace
How can homelessness and housing organisations working in countries neighbouring make sense of the continuing conflict in Ukraine? Eventbrite
If the conflict in Ukraine persists through 2023, as now appears plausible, how can a war-induced global recession be avoided as investment-curtailing uncertainty persists and prices soar? The New York Times
How?
How has the conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacted the nuclear energy sector? Financier Worldwide
How would a President DeSantis handle the conflict in Ukraine? The New York Times
How is the Russia-Ukraine conflict threatening food security? Ojaank IAS Academy
What?
What new trading patterns has the Russia-Ukraine conflict imposed on the titanium supply chain for the aerospace industry? Argus
What is the impact of the war in Ukraine on the prospects for global conflict resolution? Eventbrite
Between the experiences of government and the private sector, what are key lessons learned from countering cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns against Ukraine for future conflicts? National Security Institute
When?
When the conflict in Ukraine has started, where is the United Nations? Russian Council
Will?
How will the Russia-Ukraine conflict end? The Manila Times
Will the Ukraine war become a wider European conflict? American Committee for US-Russia Accord
How will the growing Iran-Russia relationship impact the current conflict in Ukraine and in future conflicts? acast
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