Crypto

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

13 November 2024
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Regardless of whether digital currencies achieve mainstream adoption in 2024 or 2025, the proliferation of Bitcoin ETFs signals a significant step towards broader acceptance and integration within the global financial system. FinancialExpress
Crypto is not only a financial asset, but a technological and social phenomenon that could transform the world in the coming years. Coinpedia Blockchain Fintech News
Raising crypto prices combined with energy inefficient equipment would result in electricity use exceeding 2% of global electricity consumption by 2027, and eventually falling to slightly above 1% by 2035. IMF eLibrary
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The Trump Bitcoin Vision could represent a turning point for American financial policy, challenging the global dominance of centralized digital currencies and introducing Bitcoin as a strategic national asset. Dinar Chronicles
  • The Biden-Harris Administration's efforts to de-bank the crypto industry is likely to be rolled back, though safety and soundness and financial crimes considerations will remain important factors. Davis Wright Tremaine LLP
  • By 2025, Ethereum will be stable within a range of around $2,509, with the capacity to reach $2,629 and prices averaging around $3,783. Crypto Daily
Weaknesses
  • Given the scale and dependence on the DeFi of Ethereum, it is expected to encounter limitations that will hinder its expansion and global reach. Crypto Daily
  • With mounting concerns over ballooning national debts, the United States is expected to adopt a similar approach by purchasing significant quantities of Bitcoin, which could further amplify demand in the coming years. The Currency Analytics
  • Investors are nothing if not forward looking, and the prospect of a lightly regulated crypto-landscape for the next 4 years will more than outweigh almost every concern around last quarter's underperformance. investing.com
Opportunities
  • Another key development could be the U.S. adopting a strategic Bitcoin reserve policy, which would be a game-changer for the digital asset space. TechRound
  • If Bitcoin achieves the prominence Trump envisions, it transforms the U.S. financial landscape and prompts a broader GCR and RV worldwide, altering the way individuals, governments, and institutions view and interact with currency. Dinar Chronicles
  • The U.S. dollar's role as the global reserve currency may be tested, but Bitcoin could serve as a complementary asset that underpins a new form of financial influence. Dinar Chronicles
Threats
  • With the introduction of Bitcoin as a strategic asset, the valuation mechanisms of currencies worldwide could be disrupted, potentially triggering an international revaluation (RV) of fiat and crypto alike. Dinar Chronicles
  • Visa and Mastercard's weight will lend legitimacy to crypto amid regulatory uncertainty. CoinTelegraph
  • Rising Nation-State Adoption: Following in the footsteps of El Salvador, which made Bitcoin legal tender, other countries are exploring Bitcoin accumulation as a strategy to hedge against economic risks. The Currency Analytics
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
crypto, bitcoin, computer, asset, attack, application
Emerging
bitcoin, crypto, asset, blockchain, bank, application
Maturing
crypto, asset, price, bank, bitcoin, application
Declining
crypto, bitcoin, asset, bank, company, carbon
Sentiment
Past Year: More Positive
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Regardless of whether digital currencies achieve mainstream adoption in 2024 or 2025, the proliferation of Bitcoin ETFs signals a significant step towards broader acceptance and integration within the global financial system. FinancialExpress
By 2025, crypto crime will cost the world $30 billion annually. The Tech Report
PEST
Political
  • With the bull run 2024 underway, Trump's pro-Bitcoin policies could create 20,000 new crypto millionaires. Blockzeit
  • There is hope that the Trump administration will relax regulatory barriers for the digital assets industry, potentially fostering growth in decentralized finance, a sector dominated by Ethereum. CoinDesk
  • The expected shift in regulatory policies is seen as a significant factor in the predicted strong performance of Bitcoin and gold under the Trump presidency. Benzinga
Economic
  • The Treasury plans to raise the tax on capital gains from cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, from 26% to 42%. cryptonews
  • In a world powered by 5G and blockchain, Bitcoin wallets will become even more efficient and accessible. Beardy Nerd
  • If Trump incorporates bitcoin into the US government's balance sheet, advocates speculate it could stoke demand for bitcoin among other world powers, thereby further inflating the price, which rose to record heights after Trump's victory was confirmed. Wired
Social
  • Starting mid-2025, Detroit residents can pay taxes and fees in crypto, with blockchain entrepreneurs invited to enhance civic solutions. Crypto Briefing
  • The next halving for the bitcoin blockchain is anticipated to occur in 2028 at block 1,050,000. Core Scientific, Inc.
  • Crypto bounties continue to raise the bar: Crypto and blockchain organizations continue to pay well above the average for vulnerabilities, with bounties in the 95th percentile reaching $1 million. Yahoo Finance
Technological
  • Another Trump presidency will be good for crypto and Elon Musk, but every big tech company may not benefit from a more hands-off approach to antitrust. The New York Times
  • History offers us a sobering parallel: Just as the early regulatory framework around the internet helped establish U.S. dominance in the digital age, today's decisions about crypto regulation will likely determine which nations will lead the next technological revolution. Morningstar, Inc.
  • The SpyAgent malware is now skulking around South Korea, stealing screenshots to capture crypto recovery passwords, and putting companies at risk of larger-scale data compromise. Security Intelligence
Financial Impact
The U.S. debt load is about to ramp up to add $1 trillion every 100 days - potentially fueling a bitcoin price surge - and could reach $36 trillion by the end of 2024. Forbes
Some in the crypto community have cast doubt on a recent projection suggesting that tokenized real-world assets could reach a staggering $30 trillion by 2030. cryptonews
The entire suite of Bitcoin L2s is valued at $7.6 trillion, representing about 12.5% of Bitcoin's projected value. CryptoGlobe
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
In addition, now that crypto is ever present Cybersecurity Ventures predicts crypto crime will cost the world $30bn annually by 2025. businesslive
There have been approximately 764 crypto-related M&A transactions globally since 2013, with about 88 in the first seven months of 2022.3 It is anticipated that the total estimated value of transactions in 2022 will be roughly $8 billion. Allen&Overy
Tougher global crypto regulations have greatly reduced the risk of another major collapse in the digital asset sector. cryptonews
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Governments worldwide are implementing new regulations to address the vulnerabilities of inadequate AML compliance procedures in crypto firms. Financial Crime Academy
The global chip shortage is very much still ongoing, after all - sure, the crypto crash has seen a period of relief, but the need for AI processors threatens to spark a new GPU shortage. TechRadar
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Irrespective of the risk in placing trust in a crypto platform yet to be battle tested, industry enthusiasts are likely to patronize World Liberty Financial if only to signal support for Trump's political endeavours. Wired
Eventually, adoption by TradFi could lead to greater adoption of crypto by everyday users and for global payment rails. cryptonews
The adoption of Polygon by renowned brands like Nike, Starbucks, Mastercard, Adobe, Disney, Meta (formerly Facebook), Adidas, Mercedes, Reddit, and Google Cloud has further sparked the interest of crypto investors worldwide, validating its potential. Flitpay.com
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
By 2050, we see bitcoin solidifying its position as a key international medium of exchange, ultimately becoming one of the world's reserve currencies. Bitcoin 2050 Valuation Scenarios: Global Medium of Exch
We see the establishment of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve as extremely low odds, but it could spark a global, nation state-level war for Bitcoin, with the sky being the limit for price should it occur. OKX
Whether or not Bitcoin will mature into a global reserve asset ultimately depends on geopolitics, political decisions and considerations from major global institutions. Seeking Alpha
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The emerging intersection of AI and crypto is going to be literally the most exciting development on our planet over the next few years. cryptonews
In summary, Putin's approval of crypto mining in Russia is a game-changer, potentially reshaping the global crypto landscape and offering vast opportunities for new projects to thrive in the coming years. Techpoint Africa
Questions
Can?
What Are Some Potential Opportunities That Can Be Leveraged to Enhance Bitcoin Scalability in the Future? Doubloin
How can DeFi overcome its circular token gambling obsession and play its proper role in scaling crypto adoption? CoinDesk
Can Bitcoin reach $1 million by 2030? Radio Okapi
How?
How are AI crypto projects redefining the blockchain space? ValueWalk
How do blockchain networks respond to Ethereum's success? investing.com
How has blockchain technology evolved beyond Bitcoin? The Blockverse
Who?
If Bitcoin's advocates have their way, who will be the next group of politically influential and self-interested investors to propose government hoarding of their favorite asset? Money, Banking and Financial Markets
Who earns Gas fees on the Ethereum blockchain? Blockgeeks
Why does the future of Bitcoin depend on who comes to the White House? NDTV
What?
What's behind Trump's shift, and what could it mean for the future of bitcoin and other decentralized digital assets in the U.S.? Morningstar, Inc.
What are the biggest risks to Bitcoin or Blockstream? Forbes Australia
What does decentralization mean for Bitcoin? AOL
When?
Which one packs more punch when it comes to making transactions faster, reducing gas fees, and offering a seamless user experience on the Ethereum network? BeInCrypto
HOW NFM RULES WILL AFFECT AND IMPACT CRYPTO AND FINTECH FIRMS The real question is how will the NFM Rules potentially affect and impact crypto and FinTech firms when they come into force in 2025? FinExtra
What happens when crypto and blockchain meet the physical world? IoTeX Blog - Get All The Latest IoTeX News
Will?
Will Bitcoin ETFs continue to gain momentum? Mudrex Blog
With the recent price movements, will we see a new all-time high for Bitcoin before the year ends? CoinMarketCap
Will Microsoft finally embrace Bitcoin? BitDegree
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