A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

1 July 2022
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Global Bitcoin adoption will hit 10% by 2030, a Blockware Intelligence report shows. TESMANIAN
44% of regional and global banks will offer crypto support by the end of the year. Daily Fintech
Globally, we have seen moves to regulate crypto and we anticipate the introduction of a clear South African regulatory regime likely by the end of 2022. ITWeb
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • The crypto markets have been in a strong bear phase for the past several months but JPMorgan Chase analysts expect that to change and they have projected a significant upside from the current levels. CoinTelegraph
  • The Ethereum Classic community seems to be more supportive on social media platforms like Twitter and Reddit which makes it an ideal choice for investors looking for something solid but still has a lot of growth potential. Bitcoinist
  • Crypto provides a way to evade sanctions and allows Cuban families to invest in small increments in a way that might protect them from inflation. WOLA
  • The recent US launch of a short Bitcoin ETF, which enables investors to gain from declines in the bitcoin price, will allow investors to hedge their positions and trade against bitcoin. TNW | Hardfork
  • The Bitcoin price recently plunged below the $20,000 mark for the first time in almost two years after record-high inflation and fears over a potential economic recession spooked crypto investors.
  • In September, China's central bank declared all bitcoin and cryptocurrency transactions illegal, promising to take action against anyone facilitating crypto transactions and warning offshore exchanges away from China. Forbes
  • Lawmakers and governments overturned European Commission plans to exempt small transactions, arguing that price volatility and the ability to break up payments into smaller chunks would make it unworkable for crypto. CoinDesk
  • Bitcoin, the most popular crypto currency in the world, could fall further if crypto's past bubbles can be trusted. Dazeinfo
  • Many of the best crypto YouTube channels will analyze new crypto projects, which tends to draw the attention of investors. Business 2 Community
  • Even relatively temporary disruption to global Internet access could cause the bitcoin blockchain to split into two or more competing branches. PLACE
  • Trojans are the most common type of malware on both Mac and Windows, while PUAs make up a third of all threats directed at Windows systems, and Macs surprisingly drive quite a bit of crypto mining - especially in Australia. Hot for Security
  • Rule makers in jurisdictions across the world are openly working on crypto-specific regulation, and the recent losses suffered by some people could spur them to move faster. Sifted

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

crypto, bitcoin, computer, attack, asset, blockchain
bitcoin, crypto, asset, blockchain, bank, app
crypto, asset, bank, price, bitcoin, coin
crypto, bitcoin, asset, price, bank, blockchain
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Global Bitcoin adoption will hit 10% by 2030, a Blockware Intelligence report shows. TESMANIAN
By 2035, one cryptocurrency (likely Bitcoin) will emerge as the world's first global currency, supplanting the U.S. Dollar - even in its digital, stablecoin form - as the default currency for international trades and purchases. Futurist Speaker
  • Just because crypto companies are slashing jobs does not mean there are not opportunities in blockchain. Dice Insights
  • The combination of the Ukraine conflict and the hawkish stances of the Federal Reserve and several other central banks could be fatal to cryptoassets' prices, while NATO sanctions on Russia could push emerging economies to add bitcoin to their reserves in the long term. Currency Com Bel LLC
  • There are real opportunities for Ireland to become a blockchain and crypto hub and an understanding of the important role regulation can play in that. Infused Media
  • Not even a $258 billion class-action lawsuit alleging a crypto pyramid scheme could stop Elon Musk from publicly displaying his continued support for Dogecoin. Decentralize.Today
  • Stripe and OpenNode recently announced a partnership that will allow businesses to convert credit card payments directly to bitcoin as well, beefing up the dollar-cost averaging side of things. CoinDesk
  • For years now, the Bank of England's governor Andrew Bailey has been railing on Bitcoin while praising the potential of stablecoins and CBDCs to expand payment systems. Vice
  • NFTs on the Ethereum blockchain are worth more than US$ 14 billion, which is up from US$ 340 million in 2020, and it is estimated to reach US$ 80 billion by 2025. it World Canada
  • GameStop has joined forces with Immutable X for its NFT marketplace that will be built on the Ethereum blockchain. EconoTimes
  • Twitter could create a marketplace where smart people can share their intellectual capital and allow direct message access and other value for Dogecoins. Cryptonite's Off-the-Block
  • The layer two Lightning Network is the technology that could upend the legacy retail system and bring the promise of Bitcoin as money to the world. Decentralize.Today
  • Digital currencies will be an important part of web 3.0 and PayPal already accept bitcoin and have made crypto a big part of their new app experience. Social Fundraising for Nonprofits by Nick Burne
  • One of India's most popular crypto platforms, CoinDCX, is projected to touch the 1,000-employee mark by the end of 2022. News18
Financial Impact
Coinbase could reach $49.2 billion in revenue exiting 2025 under a bullish outlook of mass crypto adoption, rising interest among institutional investors and the sector growing to $6.8 trillion in total size. CoinDesk
The Bitcoin network could eventually be valued as high as $100 trillion.
As one cryptocurrency expert had predicted earlier in 2021 after a dip, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 value later in 2021. Interesting Engineering
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By the end of the year, bitcoin mining could use almost as much energy as all the world's data centers combined. Gizmodo
Adoption by the developing world is seen as the key driver, with 33% of respondents saying bitcoin will become the currency of choice in developing nations within 10 years. MoneyHunter
By the end of 2021, bitcoin mining could consume nearly as much energy as every data center in the world combined. Gizmodo
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Without a coherent international approach to cryptos there is a danger that they will fail to achieve their potential, and the world will lose the considerable benefits they could bring. Thomson Reuters Institute
Lemonade launches crypto parametric climate insurance coalition Insurtech Lemonade has launched a parametric climate risk transfer initiative that will utilise the blockchain and cryptocurrency technology to deliver affordable climate insurance to the world's most vulnerable farmers. - The Catastrophe Bond, Insurance Linked Securities & Investment, Reinsurance Capital, Alternative Risk Transfer and Weather Risk Management site
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The Crypto Climate Accord's overall objective is to decarbonize the global crypto industry by prioritizing climate stewardship and supporting the entire crypto industry's transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.
Bitcoin will not replace the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency. The Investment Survival Newsletter
In the end global stimulus and supports led stocks to a rally of their own (albeit a less dramatic one than Bitcoin), while recent events have shown that cryptocurrencies are just as susceptible to mainstream economic fears as the Nasdaq or ISEQ. RTE
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Under an extreme scenario where gold or Bitcoin becomes the reserve currency of the world, the value of the digital asset could fall between $1.3 million to $4.8 million. usfunds
Proponents of the largest cryptocurrency have long contended that bitcoin will ultimately displace the dollar as a global reserve currency. Blockworks
Stacks blocks will always settle on the Bitcoin blockchain as the ultimate source of truth, but microblocks introduce a new lower-latency global view of the Stacks blockchain transaction state. Hiro
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Key contributors to crypto and blockchain adoption are everywhere, and the world will definitely see more in the coming years. CoinTelegraph
Energy use by the Bitcoin network in the United States and globally could grow significantly in the next five years, adding many gigawatts of demand. Utility Dive
Can Russia emerge as a crypto superpower? Reuters
What does 2022 hold for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general and what trends can we expect to see in the year? Trading Education
How can we create an environment for Bitcoin adoption by politicians without Bitcoin co-option? CoinHighlight
How has the tobacco industry reacted to the advent of Bitcoin? South Florida Reporter
How will Ethereum 2.0 Change Things? NameCoinNews
How real is the threat of regulatory overreach and higher taxation for Bitcoin? Forbes
Who hold the most bitcoin?
If speculators would rather put their chips elsewhere, and conservative investors stay away, who is left to buy Bitcoin? ZyCrypto
Who will be next to succumb to the crypto whims? Sifted
What does the state of gold mining in Africa have to do with the price of global Bitcoin? CoinTelegraph
What will the Ukraine conflict mean for bitcoin? Verdict
What does 2030 hold for Bitcoin?
Will Bitcoin and other initial iterations of cryptocurrency fall by the wayside when the U.S. government introduces the digital dollar? Daniel Burrus
If Bitcoin becomes a reserve asset by 2030, when India may be the 3rd largest economy, would we have the 3rd largest bitcoin holding? MediaNama
What will the bitcoin cryptocurrency be when it grows up? Yahoo!
If the Bitcoin price starts to jump about a bit more, will we see increased market activity going forward? CityAM
Will CBDCs spell death for digital currencies like Bitcoin? Coingeek
Or will bitcoin grow to be excess of digital gold, fortified by secondary protocol layers that prehend competing improvements?
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