A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

1 December 2022
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By the end of this decade, a few things like how Bitcoin would be regulated and whether it could become a currency with wider usage in the global payments system might become clear. Kalkine Media AU
Another study finds that 44% of regional and global banks will offer crypto support by the end of the year. The Financial Brand
Global Bitcoin adoption will hit 10% by 2030, a Blockware Intelligence report shows. TESMANIAN
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • Australians have been warned to stay away from suspicious-looking fake Bitcoin paper wallets, which work by luring victims into accessing a lucrative crypto wallet but will ultimately drain them of their own crypto holdings. Decentralize.Today
  • Australians have been warned to stay away from suspicious-looking fake Bitcoin (BTC) paper wallets, which work by luring victims into accessing a lucrative crypto wallet but will ultimately drain them of their own crypto holdings. CoinTelegraph
  • To evade detection, criminals such as the Lazarus Group rely on a thriving underbelly of opaque mixers that turn one form of cryptocurrency into another, and over-the-counter brokers in Russia and China who will do off-the-books cash deals for large volumes of crypto. British GQ
  • ASIC is very concerned that Australians who invested in crypto may not have fully understood the risks and may have lost money in 2022's collapse in valuations. ABC (Australia)
  • Regulatory agencies in the U.S. could implement new laws or regulations that severely limit bitcoin or even make it illegal. Conrad West Gallery
  • The oversight gaps that allowed for the disastrous failure of FTX - which until just weeks ago was one of the world's most respected crypto businesses before it was exposed as a house of cards - underscore the deep risks of trading on unregulated digital currency exchanges. DNyuz
  • The G20 roadmap recognises crypto's immense potential to bring down costs from the current global average of 7% closer to the UN's sustainable development goal of 3%. OMFIF
  • Swiss digital asset bank Sygnum secures in-principle approval to operate in Abu Dhabi, JPMorgan Chase granted a wallet trademark covering various virtual currency and crypto payment services, and Metaverse could add $1.4 Trillion a year to Asia's GDP. Transport Times
  • The collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried' s crypto-currency exchange FTX, resulting in the loss of at least $1 billion of customer money, will be used to demand more regulation of the crypto-currency business. True Blue Will Never Stain
  • Bitcoin and Ether were trading lower as fears over FTX contagion and Fed rate hikes continued to weigh on markets. CoinDesk
  • A look ahead to 2023 we can expect to see changes in MFA, continued Hactivism from non-state actors, CISOs lean in on more proactive security and crypto-jackers will get more perceptive. Security Today
  • Singapore has stated its preference for use-case based blockchain technology while warning against retail crypto trading. Fortune

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

crypto, bitcoin, computer, attack, asset, blockchain
bitcoin, crypto, asset, blockchain, bank, app
crypto, asset, bank, price, bitcoin, coin
crypto, bitcoin, asset, price, bank, blockchain
Past Year: More Negative
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
By the end of this decade, a few things like how Bitcoin would be regulated and whether it could become a currency with wider usage in the global payments system might become clear. Kalkine Media AU
44% of regional and global banks will offer crypto support by the end of the year. Daily Fintech
  • While the US has traditionally set the standard for global financial regulation, it is not a given that it will shape how crypto regulation develops worldwide. Raconteur
  • The ECB will focus on assessing the risk profiles and risk capabilities of crypto firms, particularly their business models, internal governance, and ability to assess risk by appointing appropriate IT and risk experts. FinExtra
  • Regulatory bodies, including the BoE, international financial watchdog Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the global standard setter for banking regulations, are looking to set standards and regulations to limit potential crypto risks. CoinDesk
  • There is a report that says by the year 2030, the metaverse crypto will be worth $13 trillion. TechBii
  • The SEC hopes to start regulating crypto exchanges in 2022. Raconteur
  • Crypto exchange Binance will become an official partner of the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine to offer educational projects in the IT, web3 and finance fields. TechCrunch
  • Blockchain use for reasons other than bitcoin creation will likely continue through 2022. Blockchain Magazine
  • NFTs on the Ethereum blockchain are worth more than US$ 14 billion, which is up from US$ 340 million in 2020, and it is estimated to reach US$ 80 billion by 2025. it World Canada
  • GameStop has joined forces with Immutable X for its NFT marketplace that will be built on the Ethereum blockchain. EconoTimes
  • There is work ongoing within the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) on banks' digital transformation, including the role of crypto technologies, that will result in horizontal analysis by the end of 2022. European Central Bank - Banking Supervision
  • Recent data from exchanges and other crypto companies in India provides a glimmer of hope. Economic Times
  • Many other investors in Denmark are using data analytics to identify the profitability of bitcoin and other cryptocurrency trading opportunities. SmartData Collective
Financial Impact
Given the trend that we have seen in recent weeks, it is likely that a drop below $1 trillion will have gotten rid of the weak hands that are currently selling, and the value of the crypto space could hold at around $940 billion to $960 billion. InsideBitcoins
Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency, which in 2022 could see transactions exceed $8 Trillion, has completed a plan to reduce its carbon emissions by more than 99% as it follows in the footsteps of Chia which touted itself a while ago as the world's first green cryptocurrency. By Futurist and Virtual Keynote Speaker Matthew Griffin
Coinbase could reach $49.2 billion in revenue exiting 2025 under a bullish outlook of mass crypto adoption, rising interest among institutional investors and the sector growing to $6.8 trillion in total size. CoinDesk
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Globally, we have seen moves to regulate crypto and we anticipate the introduction of a clear South African regulatory regime likely by the end of 2022. ITWeb
By 2035, one cryptocurrency (likely Bitcoin) will emerge as the world's first global currency, supplanting the U.S. Dollar - even in its digital, stablecoin form - as the default currency for international trades and purchases. Futurist Speaker
By the end of the year, bitcoin mining could use almost as much energy as all the world's data centers combined. Gizmodo
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Core Scientific, the world's largest bitcoin miner, has warned that it will suspend payments, basically heading towards bankruptcy. Crypto Finance AG
The presence of different kinds of crypto wallets might make it hard to choose for an investor taking their first steps into the world of blockchain. The Capital
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Adoption by the developing world is seen as the key driver, with 33% of respondents saying bitcoin will become the currency of choice in developing nations within 10 years. MoneyHunter
The Crypto Climate Accord's overall objective is to decarbonize the global crypto industry by prioritizing climate stewardship and supporting the entire crypto industry's transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.
The collapse of one company will not change the vision of the UAE to become a global crypto hub. CoinTelegraph
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Under an extreme scenario where gold or Bitcoin becomes the reserve currency of the world, the value of the digital asset could fall between $1.3 million to $4.8 million. usfunds
Proponents of the largest cryptocurrency have long contended that bitcoin will ultimately displace the dollar as a global reserve currency. Blockworks
Stacks blocks will always settle on the Bitcoin blockchain as the ultimate source of truth, but microblocks introduce a new lower-latency global view of the Stacks blockchain transaction state. Hiro
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Regarding crypto payments, 42% of Gen Z globally plan to make purchases using crypto in 2022 and Deloitte has found that 75% of U.S. retailers plan to accept crypto payments within the next two years. The Wise Marketer
In the coming years, BCH network developers will roll out new features that we believe could further fuel interest in Bitcoin Cash, thus positively impacting its value. Cryptopolitan
Can Bitcoin breathe new life into Alberta's oil and gas? The Globe and Mail
Can internet outages really disrupt crypto networks? Cointelegraph Magazine
Can financial inclusion be achieved without a bank account or a digital money solution, such as crypto? CoinDesk
What is Ethereum staking, and how does it affect Ethereum users or the blockchain landscape? 101 Blockchains
How might policymakers get crypto industry regulation wrong? Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
How will the crypto industry react? Money
Given the rapid clip at which crypto and blockchain have exploded over the last five years, who knows what the next five years will bring? paymentsjournal
Who hold the most bitcoin?
If speculators would rather put their chips elsewhere, and conservative investors stay away, who is left to buy Bitcoin? ZyCrypto
What Could Affect The Price of Ethereum Over 2023?
What is the significance of the Ethereum Virtual Machine in blockchain applications? 101 Blockchains
What Will Bitcoin Be Worth in 2023? MSN
Do more people join crypto markets when the price of Bitcoin rises? ResearchBuzz
How can anyone accept crypto as payment when it could be worth a lot less the next day? LinkedIn
Will Bitcoin and other initial iterations of cryptocurrency fall by the wayside when the U.S. government introduces the digital dollar? Daniel Burrus
What Will Bitcoin Be Worth in the Future? MSN
Which agencies will regulate crypto in the U.S.? MIT Sloan
Will the impact of Social VR Worlds and Crypto-Enabled Worlds be just as huge as Social Media? SogetiLabs
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