Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

30 November 2022
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
An integral part of NASA's plan to return astronauts to the moon this decade is the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will be humanity's first permanent outpost outside of low Earth orbit. IEEE Spectrum
The total cost of Nasa's lunar programme, Artemis, will have ballooned to $93 billion by 2025 - before it even gets its new rocket off the planet for a test flight. The Times
The Luna-25 lander, possibly launching in mid-2022, will mark Russia's first moon landing since 1976, when the Soviet-era Luna-24 lander collected lunar samples to return to Earth. The New York Times
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • Beginning with Artemis IX likely not until the 2030s, a new version of the solid rocket boosters look to increase SLS's power to 9.2 million pounds of thrust at liftoff. phys.org
  • With rapidly increasing spaceflight activities in Cislunar space, the U.S. government will lead development of best practices for safe and predictable operations in Cislunar space and Lunar orbit. U.S. Government
  • Following the identification and prioritization of science opportunities in Cislunar space, the U.S. government will advance technologies as well as develop additional practices and guidelines to enable and protect Lunar science. U.S. Government
Weaknesses
  • The U.S. government will aim to understand the long-term effects of growing human activities on the Cislunar environment, and to preserve a safe and sustainable environment in Cislunar space - such as limiting debris in Lunar orbit. U.S. Government
  • NASA's Artemis Program aims in the short term to land astronauts back on the Moon by 2024, and in the long term to eventually inhabit it for long durations as well as build a cislunar space station or Lunar Gateway. Frontiers
  • As the launch of Artemis 1 continues to be delayed, there are growing concerns that some of the SLS vehicle's components could expire based on current NASA analyses of their lifespans. Space
Opportunities
  • The Falcon 9 will launch JPL's Lunar Flashlight, a probe that's designed to work from a near-rectilinear halo orbit around the Moon. Gizmodo
  • Wednesday's launch will carry Japan's HAKUTO-R lander to space for a lunar landing to deploy a number of government and private payloads. Digital Trends
  • The Orion spacecraft is at the core of NASA's ambitious Artemis missions, which aim to return humans to the moon in 2025. CNN
Threats
  • OMOTENASHI: JAXA's CubeSat will employ a retro-rocket and airbag in order to break the record for the smallest lander on the Moon. Sky & Telescope
  • The Air Force Research Laboratory chose Colorado-based Advanced Space to build a spacecraft that will observe, detect and track objects around the moon. FDD
  • The seismometer readings will join the only other sets of extraterrestrial seismic data, from the Apollo lunar missions and the Viking Mars missions, in NASA's Planetary Data System. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, flight, lander
Emerging
3D, 4G, EV, artificial intelligence, crypto, moon
Maturing
moon, lunar, Mars, astronaut, commercial, company
Declining
company, moon, Mars, budget, coal, economy
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Around 61% of world dams are under risk of drought or floods or both by 2050. The Express Tribune
Globally, 25 million new project managers by 2030 - or 2.3 million per year - are required to meet the need for project-based work. FE News
PEST
Political
  • Defense By Bryan Bender Proponents for a more muscular U.S. military say they fear China cannot be trusted to pursue only peaceful aims and could use its space program for both economic and military advantage, including a new partnership with Russia to build a moon base. Inferse.com
  • Canadian astronauts will soon need to be wary of committing crimes on the lunar surface. MobileSyrup
  • Russia and China plan to open their future lunar research station to all interested parties, but no Artemis country has expressed interest. Space War
Economic
  • As NASA says in its press kit, no aerodynamic or aerothermal test facility can recreate the conditions the heat shield will experience returning at lunar return speeds. Gizmodo
  • Canoo will launch commercial production of its vehicles from its Arkansas factory in late 2022, and deliver on the NASA Artemis vehicle in 2023. Inhabitat
  • With Space Tourism peaking in interest this past year with billionaires such as Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk all developing rockets to orbit space, the hotel industry will definitely have a future beyond the sky. Yahoo News
Social
  • The space agency will use Artemis 1 to demonstrate its operations and facilities throughout the entire mission, such as NASA's launch facilities and ground-based infrastructure, SLS operations, including separation events during ascent, Orion operations in space, and recovery procedures. Gizmodo
  • The US space agency is planning to send real women to the Moon but it's thought the female body has a bigger risk of negative impacts from space radiation. The US Sun
  • The Radio wave Observations at the Lunar Surface of the photo-Electron Sheath will land on the lunar nearside later in 2022. Forbes
Technological
  • The LEAP team is working towards the robot being integrated on ESA's European Large Logistic Lander, which is scheduled to land on the moon multiple times from the late 2020s to the early 2030s. phys.org
  • The soot released by 1,000 space tourism flights could warm Antarctica by nearly 1 °C! Vito Technology, Inc.
  • NASA selected Starship to land astronauts on the lunar surface by 2025. / Japan TESMANIAN
Financial Impact
Between lunar missions and commercial space stations, low-Earth economy and vital information-gathering about our planet, investments in the space industry could reach $1 trillion in the 2030s. World Economic Forum
By 2045, China seeks to become the dominant space power, and by mid-century, it aims to develop an Earth-Moon space economic zone potentially capable of generating $10 trillion in value per year. The National Interest
If the space economy could reach a trillion dollars by 2030 then, after demonstration of the economic feasibility of lunar industrial development, a $10 trillion space economy by 2040 would be within reach. The Space Review
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
An integral part of NASA's plan to return astronauts to the moon this decade is the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will be humanity's first permanent outpost outside of low Earth orbit. IEEE Spectrum
ESA's large-class science missions for the timeframe 2035-2050 will focus on moons of the giant Solar System planets, temperate exoplanets or the galactic ecosystem, and new physical probes of the early universe. phys.org
Orion will fly incredibly close to the moon's surface for a gravitational assist and fling itself into a new lunar orbit called a Distant Retrograde Orbit setting it up to become the furthest distance from Earth any human-rated spacecraft has ever achieved. Florida Today
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
A NASA cubesat lunar mission lost contact with Earth a day after deployment, jeopardizing its plans to demonstrate the orbit that will be used for subsequent Artemis missions. End Grade Inflation
AN OUT-of-control rocket on course to crash into the Moon threatens to contaminate its surface with microbes from Earth, a scientist has warned. The Sun
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Another vehicle that the space agency has adopted into its Artemis program to return humans to the moon - the Starship from SpaceX and Elon Musk - could finally fly beyond the bounds of Earth's atmosphere for the first time in early December. CNet
Within two weeks, the DART spacecraft will impact the asteroid moon Dimorphos as it completes the world's first planetary defense test mission. Lowell Observatory
Newer mission areas like in-orbit manufacturing and space medicine will open up entirely new innovations in a permanent Moon presence and continued space exploration but with many returns to our lives here on Earth. Geospatial Media & Communications
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Lunar nights are equivalent to 14 days on Earth, and reliable electricity provided by fission power systems will be needed to survive extreme temperatures. Energy.gov
China has revealed how it plans to use hollow lava channels underground on the moon to offer a natural shield against space radiation and extreme temperatures on it's new 'Laurel Tree' lunar base. Born to Engineer
Nasa has vowed to place the first woman on the lunar surface in 2025, but the female body is extremely vulnerable to space radiation: high-speed particles that tear through DNA molecules, wreaking havoc internally. / USA The Telegraph
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
NASA wants to experiment with a new orbit around the moon that it hopes to use in the coming years to once again land astronauts on the lunar surface. / New Zealand CP24
In the coming years, SpaceX will provide the Human Landing System (HLS) for the Artemis III mission - the first crewed mission to the Moon since the Apollo Era. Universe Today
Questions
Can?
Can plants grow on the moon? Green Prophet
Can plants grow in a barren landscape such as the surface of the moon? Green Prophet
How can a robot overseeing mining on the Moon pass itself off as a human in conversation, for example? Datafloq
How?
How can we recycle materials on the Moon? BBC Sky at Night Magazine
How important is the issue of recycling human-made materials on the Moon? BBC Sky at Night Magazine
How can we make Whisky on the Moon? Transport Times
Who?
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
Who will profit from the moon? Brisbane Times
What?
What other countries are in the space race to the Moon? EL PAIS English Edition
With NASA aiming for asteroids, the moon and beyond, billionaires and superpowers heading for Mars and a new generation of manned and unmanned space flight, what policies will it take for a country like Britain and city like London to thrive? Eventbrite
What are the challenges surrounding recycling on the Moon? BBC Sky at Night Magazine
When?
When will lunar recycling become a reality? BBC Sky at Night Magazine
When will see Europeans on the Moon? SpaceWatch.Global
When can we expect space tourism to become commonplace? Phys Org
Will?
As stated, the Artemis astronauts will require both food and water to survive on the Moon, but how will they get both without constant resupply from Earth? Universe Today
As Artemis 1 prepares for its maiden launch with the goal of putting astronauts back on the Moon's surface within the next few years, the next question is how will astronauts live and survive its surface? Universe Today
How will Lunar Trailblazer advance our understanding of water on the Moon? The Planetary Society
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