Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

21 April 2025
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • Concrete opportunities include building on the strong regional weight of the signatories of the Artemis Accords, a U.S.-led framework to reaffirm principles for the peaceful use of space in the new era of space exploration. Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Dragon carries an enhanced air quality monitoring system that could protect crew members on exploration missions to the Moon and Mars, and two atomic clocks to examine fundamental physics concepts, such as relativity, and test worldwide synchronization of precision timepieces. NASA
  • The Japanese Resilience lander is taking a longer, low-energy route to the moon and is expected to land in June. CBS News
Weaknesses
  • Fostering sustainable practices will be essential for ensuring the longevity of the space tourism industry and mitigating negative impacts on Earth. World History
  • Turkey has already built forward base capabilities in places such as northern Cyprus and Qatar, and expanding its military presence in Syria will create what some have termed Turkey's full moon, a would-be regional threat after the weakening of the Iranian-led Shiite crescent. Atlantic Council
  • In a step toward ending that strategic ambiguity, India has decided to become a signatory to the Artemis Accords - a U.S.-led initiative that seeks to create rules that will govern the spatial order while pursuing new missions to the Moon and Mars.
Opportunities
  • Chandrayaan-4, planned for 2028, aims to retrieve lunar samples, while a Venus orbiter mission is under development. EurAsian Times
  • Starship could theoretically launch NASA astronauts, carry them to the Moon, land them, and return them to Earth using just one vehicle, rather than using SLS, Orion, and Gateway.
  • By demonstrating the capabilities of quantum gravity sensing in orbit, NASA and its partners are laying the groundwork for future missions that could scan other planets, moons, or even detect exotic physics phenomena. Innovation News Network
Threats
  • Starship delays threaten both Mars and NASA's Artemis Moon missions. BizNews.com
  • There is no reason to doubt China's stated intention to land astronauts on the Moon in the 2030s. Astronomy Magazine
  • Lunar Trailblazer was selected as part of NASA's SIMPLEx (Small Innovative Missions for Planetary Exploration) programme, which accepts a higher level of risk in exchange for lower costs. Gadgets 360
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, lander, commercial
Emerging
artificial intelligence, 4G, blockchain, EV, crypto, moon
Maturing
moon, lunar, astronaut, Mars, commercial, agency
Declining
moon, company, lunar, Mars, astronaut, budget
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Russia likely believes it must resolve its war with Kiev by 2026, or eventually lose its chances of competing with the US and China on the world stage. Business Insider
55% of LinkedIn members globally stand to be disrupted or augmented by generative AI, and the skillsets required for their jobs will change by an average of 65% by 2030. ITWeb
PEST
Political
  • Musk's advocacy to reach the Red Planet has continued despite increasing intentions by China to become only the second country to put humans on the Moon by 2030. Yahoo News
  • In a decade or two when the Artemis Program exists only in the rear-view mirror or history, it could finally become the global governance framework for all nations exploring and exploiting space beyond Earth orbit. Room The Space Journal of Asgardia
  • The Lunar New Year, potential U.S. port disruptions, and new regulatory frameworks are among the key factors influencing supply chains for businesses in Australia and New Zealand. Seabridge Global Logistics
Economic
  • Analysts at ING are expecting a modest uptick in the year-on-year number to around 0.4% YoY, as we expect food inflation to see an uptick from the Lunar New Year effect, but non-food inflation is likely to remain weak as price competition remains cutthroat. / China investing.com
  • A report by NASA's Office of Inspector General in August found quality issues with Boeing's work on the Exploration Upper Stage, a more powerful upper stage planned for the Block 1 B version of SLS that will begin service on Artemis 4. SpaceNews
  • With companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin paving the way for space tourism, there will be a need for professionals who understand the logistics and management of space travel experiences. Mintly
Social
  • The best viewing location will be Canada, where up to 93% of the Sun will be covered by the Moon, making it the most dramatic region for observers. International Star Registry - Name a Star
  • With the Artemis 2 mission scheduled for 2026, having humans aboard spacecraft in cislunar space for the first time in 53 years will require infrastructure and the means to protect it. SpaceNews
  • Whilst the Wolf Amendment remains, it is unlikely in the short term that China will join and it may thus prevent the Artemis Accords from being adopted as a global framework for responsible behaviours in space. Room The Space Journal of Asgardia
Technological
  • The lunar occultation of Mars will be visible from parts of Canada, most of Scandinavia and Russia, and parts of Asia. Live Science
  • Skywatchers in northern latitudes might even be able to catch a lunar occultation, when the moon appears to swallow a planet from the sky. Live Science
  • If, for instance, microbes can thrive in a lake buried beneath Earth's south polar ice cap, maybe similar organisms could exist in glancingly similar extraterrestrial environments, such as the mysterious ice-covered ocean of Jupiter's moon Europa or water-logged regions of Mars's subsurface. Scientific American
Financial Impact
The global space economy, including lunar pursuits, is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with significant contributions from private sector investments. Science Magazine
PETs are projected to unleash between $1.1 trillion and $2.9 trillion of value, as highlighted in a report by Lunar Ventures. Syntheticus AG
ThE program, valued at $2.6 billion through 2028, supports commercial lunar deliveries to build a sustainable lunar economy and prepare for future human exploration. / USA Spotify for Creators
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side. BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972. IEEE Spectrum
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
(only 14 hours from the Moon) + Planetary Defence early asteroid detection sensors on multiple 100,000 km tethers on each side of the Earth (206,000 km baseline) for stereoscopic vision will warn of incoming asteroids from the Sun or out of the asteroid belts. International Space Elevator Consortium
Mining asteroids or lunar regolith for valuable materials could mean fewer contaminated waters on Earth and less destruction of Appalachian mountaintops, for example. Forbes
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Astronomers have discovered two white dwarf stars just 150 light-years away on a collision course that will end in a massive Type 1 a supernova-set to outshine the Moon in Earth's night sky. Apple Podcasts
The Moonlight project will provide the first off-planet commercial telecommunications network, supporting lunar communication and navigation services. Royal Aeronautical Society
Harvesting the quantities of Helium-3 that Interlune envisions would require processing millions of tons of lunar regolith, an undertaking comparable to operating a copper mine on Earth. SpaceNews
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance. Gizmodo
From command modules to lunar rovers, aluminum was critical in designing vehicles that could withstand the extreme conditions of space while remaining lightweight enough to escape Earth's gravity. MFG Shop
Ultimately, SpaceX plans to use the Starship capsule as the landing vehicle that will ferry NASA astronauts to the lunar surface as soon as 2026 as part of the Artemis III mission - and eventually put the first humans on Mars. CNN
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
In the coming year, Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to continue testing its Starship rocket, which is designed to deliver cargo and people to near-Earth orbits, as well as to the Moon and Mars. Hitecher
Scientists anticipate the mining of near-Earth asteroids and the Moon to emerge as a key aspect in the commercialization of space over the next several years. The Regulatory Review
Questions
Can?
What can be the geopolitical and economic implications of water-ice discovery on the Moon? The Indian Express
How can India contribute to future lunar missions? Raman Academy
How can we enable more precise navigation on the Moon? SciTechDaily
How?
How long will blue ghost live on the moon? India Today
How much energy is required to heat lunar regolith to its melting point? Nature
Is THIS how the Moon will look in 2050? The Sun
Who?
Exploration of new frontiers will produce new ways of imagining, new challenges, new technologies that can be of tremendous utility, says Grayling, who moderated a fireside chat Monday that was part of Northeastern's Thinking the Future series and recently published a book, Who Owns the Moon? phys.org
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
What?
What other groundbreaking technologies will emerge as we strive to make lunar habitation a reality? Sustainability Times
What Does the Future Hold for Human Exploration on the Moon? TravelPander
What Technologies Are Essential for Manned Missions to the Moon? TravelPander
When?
What happens when there's a private space mishap that strands paying passengers in orbit or on the moon? SpaceNews
When will 100 metric tons of clean, processed, water extracted at the lunar poles and positioned where we want it, cost less than a few tens of millions of dollars? Space
How will geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. play out when it comes to mining the Moon? Satellite Today
Will?
Will space tourism impact the environment? Franetic | Marketing and Digital Transformation Agency
Will we be able to see the full Wolf Moon over the Southern Tier? Yahoo News
Will bitcoin go to the moon? Business Insider Africa
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