Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

6 December 2021
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
RSS Feeds
Twitter Searches
Web Searches
Twitter Feeds
World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
The Climate Governance Initiative is a network of national directors' associations with an overall network exceeding 100,000 individuals across the world to drive improved corporate climate governance with a mission to facilitate the transition to a net-zero economy by 2050 or before. climate-governance.org
By 2035, the digital transformation of space will be obvious in all countries of the world, including poor countries. Pew Research Center
Analysts at BofA Global tracked leverage, in relation to corporate earnings at U.S. investment-grade companies, that has been falling in recent quarters, and should decline to about 2.25 x in 2022, or a level last seen in 2015. MarketWatch
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The Climate Governance Initiative is a network of national directors' associations with an overall network exceeding 100,000 individuals across the world to drive improved corporate climate governance with a mission to facilitate the transition to a net-zero economy by 2050 or before. climate-governance.org
  • Analysts at BofA Global tracked leverage, in relation to corporate earnings at U.S. investment-grade companies, that has been falling in recent quarters, and should decline to about 2.25 x in 2022, or a level last seen in 2015. MarketWatch
  • The world's first ammonia-fuelled engine from designer MAN Energy Solutions will only be available from the end of 2024, and the first vessels kitted out with the propulsion system will likely enter service in 2025 or 2026. Recharge | Latest renewable energy news
Weaknesses
  • In a scenario where 1.5 °C of warming occurs by 2030, almost half the world's population could be exposed to a climate hazard related to heat stress, drought, flood, or water stress. McKinsey & Company
  • Achieving a full transition to zero-emission vehicles around the world by or before 2040 is achievable but will require strong, targeted policies. GFEI | Global Fuel Economy Initiative
  • This week's announcement that China has signed up to a deal to end deforestation by 2030 together with world-leading tree-cutters like Brazil and Indonesia is not, in fact, a huge surprise - or commitment - on Beijing's side. The Spectator
Opportunities
  • Latest U.N. data shows 143 countries, accounting for around 57% of global emissions, have submitted new or updated emissions cut plans ahead of COP26 and their total emissions are estimated to be around 9% of 2010 levels by 2030 if implemented fully. Reuters
  • Latest UN data shows 143 countries, accounting for around 57% of global emissions, have submitted new or updated emissions cut plans ahead of COP26 and their total emissions are estimated to be around 9% of 2010 levels by 2030 if implemented fully. The Sydney Morning Herald
  • The world's top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, gave foreign companies until the end of 2023 to establish regional headquarters or risk losing government contracts as it competes to attract foreign capital and talent. Asharq Al-Awsat
Threats
  • Investors are speculating that the BoE might become the first of the world's biggest central banks to raise rates, later in 2021 or early in 2022. Cyprus Mail
  • The Australian National University's Atrocity Forecasting Project has ranked Afghanistan in the top five countries in the world at risk of genocide or politicide in 2021-23. Refugee Council of Australia
  • There is a high failure rate for AI projects, for example Gartner predicts that through 2022, 85% of AI projects will deliver erroneous outcomes due to bias in data, algorithms or the teams responsible for managing them. GAVS TECHNOLOGIES
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, lunar, astronaut, flight, lander
Emerging
EV, 4G, moon, 3D, app, artificial intelligence
Maturing
moon, Mars, astronaut, lunar, commercial, company
Declining
company, moon, Mars, economy, event, alliance
Sentiment
Past Year: More Negative
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
The world's first ammonia-fuelled engine from designer MAN Energy Solutions will only be available from the end of 2024, and the first vessels kitted out with the propulsion system will likely enter service in 2025 or 2026. Recharge | Latest renewable energy news
In a scenario where 1.5 °C of warming occurs by 2030, almost half the world's population could be exposed to a climate hazard related to heat stress, drought, flood, or water stress. McKinsey & Company
PEST
Political
  • The Climate Governance Initiative is a network of national directors' associations with an overall network exceeding 100,000 individuals across the world to drive improved corporate climate governance with a mission to facilitate the transition to a net-zero economy by 2050 or before. climate-governance.org
  • Analysts at BofA Global tracked leverage, in relation to corporate earnings at U.S. investment-grade companies, that has been falling in recent quarters, and should decline to about 2.25 x in 2022, or a level last seen in 2015. MarketWatch
  • The world's first ammonia-fuelled engine from designer MAN Energy Solutions will only be available from the end of 2024, and the first vessels kitted out with the propulsion system will likely enter service in 2025 or 2026. Recharge | Latest renewable energy news
Economic
  • In a scenario where 1.5 °C of warming occurs by 2030, almost half the world's population could be exposed to a climate hazard related to heat stress, drought, flood, or water stress. McKinsey & Company
  • Achieving a full transition to zero-emission vehicles around the world by or before 2040 is achievable but will require strong, targeted policies. GFEI | Global Fuel Economy Initiative
  • This week's announcement that China has signed up to a deal to end deforestation by 2030 together with world-leading tree-cutters like Brazil and Indonesia is not, in fact, a huge surprise - or commitment - on Beijing's side. The Spectator
Social
  • Latest U.N. data shows 143 countries, accounting for around 57% of global emissions, have submitted new or updated emissions cut plans ahead of COP26 and their total emissions are estimated to be around 9% of 2010 levels by 2030 if implemented fully. Reuters
  • Latest UN data shows 143 countries, accounting for around 57% of global emissions, have submitted new or updated emissions cut plans ahead of COP26 and their total emissions are estimated to be around 9% of 2010 levels by 2030 if implemented fully. The Sydney Morning Herald
  • The world's top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, gave foreign companies until the end of 2023 to establish regional headquarters or risk losing government contracts as it competes to attract foreign capital and talent. Asharq Al-Awsat
Technological
  • Investors are speculating that the BoE might become the first of the world's biggest central banks to raise rates, later in 2021 or early in 2022. Cyprus Mail
  • The Australian National University's Atrocity Forecasting Project has ranked Afghanistan in the top five countries in the world at risk of genocide or politicide in 2021-23. Refugee Council of Australia
  • There is a high failure rate for AI projects, for example Gartner predicts that through 2022, 85% of AI projects will deliver erroneous outcomes due to bias in data, algorithms or the teams responsible for managing them. GAVS TECHNOLOGIES
Financial Impact
By many projections, in 2040 the annual value of the space economy could surpass $1 trillion, with trillions more in global economic activity dependent on space. The Washington Post 4
Today, US debt stands at $28 trillion or 120% of GDP and within 5 years will exceed $40 trillion or more than double America's GDP. Gold-Eagle 4
The digital economy has the potential to raise P5 trillion in economic value by 2030, or about 27% of 2021's gross domestic product. The Manila Times 4
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Achieving a full transition to zero-emission vehicles around the world by or before 2040 is achievable but will require strong, targeted policies. GFEI | Global Fuel Economy Initiative
This week's announcement that China has signed up to a deal to end deforestation by 2030 together with world-leading tree-cutters like Brazil and Indonesia is not, in fact, a huge surprise - or commitment - on Beijing's side. The Spectator
Latest U.N. data shows 143 countries, accounting for around 57% of global emissions, have submitted new or updated emissions cut plans ahead of COP26 and their total emissions are estimated to be around 9% of 2010 levels by 2030 if implemented fully. Reuters
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The outcomes in the coming years could reshape how the global internet works and how new technologies are used, with people having access to different content, digital services or online freedoms based on where they are. The New York Times
Although most species are identified as Least Concern, at least 234 species are considered at risk of extinction (i.e., extinct in the wild; critically endangered; endangered; or vulnerable). New Phytologist Foundation
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Allbirds, dedicated to making sustainable footwear, has pledged that 100% of its wool will come from regenerative sources and all of its annual on-farm emissions from wool will be reduced or sequestered by the end of 2025. White & Case
Without a drastic reduction global fossil fuel emissions, temperatures across the planet will warm by an average of 1.5 C since the pre-industrial era or the mid-1800s within two decades or sooner. NUNATSIAQ NEWS
70% of Global Fortune 500 companies still do not have a meaningful climate plan designed to achieve or be well on the way to net-zero emissions by 2030, when scientists say climate change could be irreversible. Fast Company
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
By the end of 2022, nearly eight out of ten POS terminals installed by retailers or vendors across the globe will be able to receive NFC-enabled contactless payments. grandviewresearch
Looking out to 2030, NATO and the EU should be animated by a shared vision of transatlantic unity in the face of global threats, even as they provide space for continued political pluralism and commercial competition within their own ranks. NATO
In the worst-case scenario, an irresponsible pioneer in quantum computing could break into the systems of governments, enterprises, or global organizations and wreak pure havoc. Built In
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Investors are speculating that the BoE might become the first of the world's biggest central banks to raise rates, later in 2021 or early in 2022. Cyprus Mail
There is a high failure rate for AI projects, for example Gartner predicts that through 2022, 85% of AI projects will deliver erroneous outcomes due to bias in data, algorithms or the teams responsible for managing them. GAVS TECHNOLOGIES
Questions
Can?
The United States has always been equivocal about Moon's KPI, perceiving it as a kind of meddling between North Korea and the U.S., so what kind of reward can Biden offer Moon? The Diplomat
Can lunar soil be used as a material to 3D print with? TechLila
What role can space tourism play in climate change? The New York Times
How?
How important is space tourism? Around World journal
How will space itself be managed once many countries demonstrate their capability to build space stations and land on various other planets, moons, and asteroids in the solar system? Issues in Science and Technology
With increasing distance and the open-ended contexts of everyday life and work on the Moon and Mars, how will crews of long-term missions face new challenges of boredom, repetitiveness, lack of privacy, no easy outside, and "doing domesticity" in a sterile setting? The Sociological Review
Who?
Who will own the Moon's resources? Digital Journal
What?
What are the ethics of mining the Moon? Eos
What are the main challenges facing any mining operation on the moon, or in space? Mining Global
What will the future exploration of the Galilean moons look like if the MMAT is effective? Universe Today
When?
When will see Europeans on the Moon? SpaceWatch.Global
When can we expect space tourism to become commonplace? Phys Org
Why throw the ISS away, when it could be offered to the international private sector for use as a lunar-staging infrastructure? Tech Crunch
Will?
Will increasing traffic to the Moon contaminate its precious ice? Europa
Will space tourism harm the environment? The Conversation
Will the most important attacks come from antisatellite systems based on Earth, in low Earth orbit, or on or near the moon? Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
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