Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

22 December 2024
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • While China's lunar and commercial space activities currently receive strong central backing, it remains to be seen how and when its Queqiao constellation plans will be deployed. SpaceNews
  • North America leads the way in commercial space activities, with a thriving ecosystem of startups and entrepreneurs exploring opportunities in satellite services, space tourism, asteroid mining, and beyond. Precedence Research
  • Intel's integration with its upcoming Lunar Lake CPUs could provide unique advantages in system-level optimizations. ComputerCity
Weaknesses
  • Hab-1 is designed keeping in mind that space is going to be very limited on the Moon or Mars. Inside Telecom
  • Increasing mobility and accelerating data acquisition will be crucial, given the limited time astronauts would spend on the moon in the early days of building out infrastructure there. SpaceNews
  • The added delay will increase the pressure on government-run Nasa - whose rocket system for sending astronauts to the Moon, the Space Launch System, has been criticised as being expensive and slow to develop. BBC News
Opportunities
  • A new federal report finds NASA's plans to put astronauts back on the moon in 2025 via the multiphase Artemis program was overly optimistic to begin with and now, with multiple delays afoot, returning humans to the lunar surface appears more likely in 2027 at the earliest.
  • A private spacecraft the size of a large shed will launch from the Kennedy Space Centre in Florida early 2025 and take 45 days to reach the moon. SKY
  • The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) tested the moon and mars mission simulation to reveal how the egg-shaped module will provide an alternative of potential living quarters for space exploration. Inside Telecom
Threats
  • The high-energy particles and intense radiation emitted during a solar flare can have serious health risks for individuals in space, including astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) or on long-duration missions to the Moon and beyond.
  • Ghost Riders in the Sky - the mission name chosen by US start-up Firefly Aerospace - will target a landing in the Sea of Crisis, a dark patch the size of Britain on the near-side of the moon. SKY
  • L'Earth observationEarth observationastronomy and other scientific programs are in danger of being sacrificed in favor of human spaceflight, the Moon and Mars. Arover
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, lander, commercial
Emerging
artificial intelligence, 4G, blockchain, EV, crypto, moon
Maturing
moon, lunar, astronaut, Mars, commercial, agency
Declining
moon, company, lunar, Mars, astronaut, budget
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
A report by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation and UN Environment Programme has found that a pledge made in 2018 - the New Plastics Global Economy Commitment - which saw corporations promise 100% reusable, recyclable or compostable plastic packaging by 2025 will likely be missed. Recycle Track Systems
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a goal of scaling up services to achieve 21.2 million persons using (initiating or continuing) PrEP globally during 2025 to end HIV as a public health threat by 2030. Centers for Disease Control and PRevention
PEST
Political
  • If successful, Japan will be the fourth country to reach the moon, following the former Soviet Union, the United States, and China.
  • Understanding how mini-moons are captured by Earth's gravity could have implications for planetary defence. Jegtheme
  • As seen from a roughly 165-mile-wide (266 kilometers) path across the Pacific Ocean, Patagonia (southern Chile and Argentina) and the Atlantic Ocean, the moon's shadow will go straight across the sun's center to create a brief ring of light dubbed a ring of fire. Space
Economic
  • Just as the Apollo astronauts famously bounced around on NASA's first-gen lunar rovers, the Artemis missions will use new Lunar Terrain Vehicles.
  • Additional increases of 6.6% to 12.7% are forecast in January, March and April, with a 4.1% decrease in February due to Lunar New Year factory closings in Asia. International Business Times
  • Inbound cargo volume in February is forecast to decline 4.1% to 1.87 million TEUs because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories. Sourcing Journal
Social
  • The Artemis 1 mission that launched in November, as well as the next two Artemis missions, are slash will be powered by Block 1 rockets.
  • The Artemis missions will spend the rest of the decade setting up humanity's first extraterrestrial outpost.
  • China aims to build a basic robotic ILRS by 2035, with five launches to establish power, communications and other infrastructure for a sustainable lunar base. SpaceNews
Technological
  • Visiting researchers will stay aboard the pressurized Habitation and Logistics Outpost module where they will have access to research facilities, remote rover controls and docking for both Orion capsules from Earth and HLS (Human Landing System) landers to the moon's surface.
  • There are plans underway for a sustained Chinese lunar presence, with China planning to establish a research station on the moon itself by 2035. Colombia One: News from Colombia and the World
  • The Europa Clipper mission, launched by NASA in October of 2024, will be the first dedicated mission to an ice-covered world with a known subsurface ocean ever, and will arrive at Jupiter's moon Europa in 2030 after two gravity assists, from Mars and Earth, in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Big Think
Financial Impact
PETs are projected to unleash between $1.1 trillion and $2.9 trillion of value, as highlighted in a report by Lunar Ventures. Syntheticus AG
Ives said that if the Trump administration increases funding for NASA's efforts to return to the moon and travel to Mars, SpaceX's value could easily increase to $500 billion or more. CNN
EUS costs are expected to balloon to $2 billion through 2025 and reach $2.8 billion by the time Artemis IV lifts off in 2028. Flying Magazine
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side. BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972. IEEE Spectrum
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
(only 14 hours from the Moon) + Planetary Defence early asteroid detection sensors on multiple 100,000 km tethers on each side of the Earth (206,000 km baseline) for stereoscopic vision will warn of incoming asteroids from the Sun or out of the asteroid belts. International Space Elevator Consortium
Mining asteroids or lunar regolith for valuable materials could mean fewer contaminated waters on Earth and less destruction of Appalachian mountaintops, for example. Forbes
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Through P4 S, Australia will provide an important contribution towards NASA's Artemis Accords, which plans to put the first woman and first person of colour on the Moon by 2030, as well as develop the technologies required for humans to venture to Mars and return to Earth in the 2040s. Connected Cities Lab
U.S. officials fear thatupon achieving global space power status, China may utilize tactics in space to advanceterritorial claims on Earth and attempt to lay claim to lunar resources. JD Supra
As the 80% illuminated Moon aligns with Neptune, the planet will disappear behind the Moon's unilluminated edge and reappear from its bright side. AstroTelescopium
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
The new moon falls at 16 degrees of Cancer, forming a very close sextile to Uranus, the planet of rebellion and electrifying change, which will be at 15 degrees of fellow earth sign Taurus. InStyle
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance. Gizmodo
Artemis II will mark the debut crewed flight - but not the first lunar landing - of an Apollo successor program aimed at returning astronauts to the moon's surface later this decade and ultimately establishing a sustainable outpost there as a stepping stone to future human exploration of Mars. chinadailyhk
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Even before the Lunar New Year 2025 rush, rates to the West Coast were higher than their pre-LNY 2024 highs observed back in January at the beginning of the Red Sea crisis. Maritime Gateway - South Asia's Premier Shipping and Lo
AMD has already committed to delivering 40 TOPS of NPU performance in its next-generation Strix Point Ryzen processors due early 2025, while at its recent Vision 2024 conference Intel claimed 100 TOPS of platform-level AI performance for the Lunar Lake chips due in Q4 of 2024. Forbes
Questions
Can?
What can be done to mitigate the environmental impacts of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
Exploration of new frontiers will produce new ways of imagining, new challenges, new technologies that can be of tremendous utility, says Grayling, who moderated a fireside chat Monday that was part of Northeastern's Thinking the Future series and recently published a book, Who Owns the Moon? phys.org
Can Antarctica serve as a model for international cooperation on the moon? Space
How?
Is THIS how the Moon will look in 2050? The Sun
How might international regulations influence the sustainability of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
How does space tourism contribute to sustainability challenges and opportunities? Space Voyage Ventures
Who?
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
Who will profit from the moon? Brisbane Times
What?
What does the new moon in Sagittarius mean for relationships? Glamour UK
What role has the Moon played in the development of space exploration policies and priorities? Space Voyage Ventures
What are the long-term benefits of adopting sustainable practices in space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
When?
What happens when there's a private space mishap that strands paying passengers in orbit or on the moon? SpaceNews
When will 100 metric tons of clean, processed, water extracted at the lunar poles and positioned where we want it, cost less than a few tens of millions of dollars? Space
How will geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. play out when it comes to mining the Moon? Satellite Today
Will?
Will humanity settle on the Moon? Yahoo Finance
Will Plants Grow on the Moon? Nautilus
What will we eat on the Moon? BBC
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