Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

22 January 2025
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
RSS Feeds
Twitter Searches
Web Searches
Twitter Feeds
World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The satellite, which will be launched a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from the Kennedy Space Center, is expected to map out the abundance, form and location of the moon's water while circling it from a 60-mile distance. Observer
  • As crypto adoption grows, Artemis has the potential to become a go-to platform for digital commerce, empowering users with its robust, decentralized ecosystem. Techpoint Africa
  • The next level of abundance - energy - will unlock new opportunities for humanity to explore beyond Earth (such as the Moon and Mars) and transition from a 3D reality to a 6 D reality, progressing rapidly toward 12D and beyond. Medium
Weaknesses
  • Japan has similar ambitions for space - and is already collaborating with India on the Lupex (Lunar Polar Exploration) project, which starts in 2025 and concerns the exploration of the Moon. News Bulletin 247
  • Scientists will undoubtedly continue to contend with similarly difficult questions as they search for signs of alien life in samples returned from the moon, Mars and, perhaps someday, intriguing icy satellites of the outer solar system's giant planets. Scientific American
  • Hab-1 is designed keeping in mind that space is going to be very limited on the Moon or Mars. Inside Telecom
Opportunities
  • By 2025 we expect new spacecraft designed for long journeys to allow us to begin the first ever crewed missions beyond the Moon into deep space.
  • Companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and many others are developing new capabilities that will be critical to the success of the Artemis program and future lunar exploration. New Space Economy
  • 2025 will be transformational for Starship with the goal of bringing reuse of the entire system online and flying increasingly ambitious missions as we iterate towards being able to send humans and cargo to Earth orbit, the moon, and Mars. CBS News
Threats
  • With private and public companies from US, Russia, India and China pushing the boundaries of space travel, the risk to lunar heritage has escalated. Mashable India
  • Specialists fear planned commercial flights could compromise lunar heritage, including Neil Armstrong's bootprints. The Jerusalem Post
  • Artemis Coin is a platform focused on enhancing digital autonomy and privacy in a world where personal data security is increasingly at risk. Brave New Coin
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, lander, commercial
Emerging
artificial intelligence, 4G, blockchain, EV, crypto, moon
Maturing
moon, lunar, astronaut, Mars, commercial, agency
Declining
moon, company, lunar, Mars, astronaut, budget
Sentiment
Past Year: More Positive
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Projections of $3 million, $13 million, or even $45 million by 2045 have already been floated, driven by Bitcoin's role as a hedge against global debt and inflation. CCN.com
A report by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation and UN Environment Programme has found that a pledge made in 2018 - the New Plastics Global Economy Commitment - which saw corporations promise 100% reusable, recyclable or compostable plastic packaging by 2025 will likely be missed. Recycle Track Systems
PEST
Political
  • In a decade or two when the Artemis Program exists only in the rear-view mirror or history, it could finally become the global governance framework for all nations exploring and exploiting space beyond Earth orbit. Room The Space Journal of Asgardia
  • The Lunar New Year, potential U.S. port disruptions, and new regulatory frameworks are among the key factors influencing supply chains for businesses in Australia and New Zealand. Seabridge Global Logistics
  • With the further growth and development of space sector, India has an opportunity to lead the other Artemis countries alongside the U.S. Free UPSC IAS Preparation Syllabus and Materials For As
Economic
  • One of NASA's main objectives at the moon's south pole is to search for water ice deposits, which could play a crucial role in future missions. Discover Magazine
  • Additional increases of 6.6% to 12.7% are forecast in January, March and April, with a 4.1% decrease in February due to Lunar New Year factory closings in Asia. International Business Times
  • Inbound cargo volume in February is forecast to decline 4.1% to 1.87 million TEUs because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories. Sourcing Journal
Social
  • Whilst the Wolf Amendment remains, it is unlikely in the short term that China will join and it may thus prevent the Artemis Accords from being adopted as a global framework for responsible behaviours in space. Room The Space Journal of Asgardia
  • From the appearance of a brilliantly bright Venus to the first total lunar eclipse since 2022, there will be plenty of reasons to look skywards at night in 2025. Live Science
  • China aims to build a basic robotic ILRS by 2035, with five launches to establish power, communications and other infrastructure for a sustainable lunar base. SpaceNews
Technological
  • There's Amazon's Project Kuiper, the potential for US National Security launches once certification is complete, and, of course, getting cargo and crewed landers to the Moon as part of NASA's Artemis program. The Register
  • In the future, New Glenn will launch Blue Origin's Moon lander for Nasa. The Week
  • Blue Ghost is flying an instrument that will test whether moon landers can detect and make use of signals from GPS satellites orbiting Earth. Scientific American
Financial Impact
PETs are projected to unleash between $1.1 trillion and $2.9 trillion of value, as highlighted in a report by Lunar Ventures. Syntheticus AG
Ives said that if the Trump administration increases funding for NASA's efforts to return to the moon and travel to Mars, SpaceX's value could easily increase to $500 billion or more. CNN
EUS costs are expected to balloon to $2 billion through 2025 and reach $2.8 billion by the time Artemis IV lifts off in 2028. Flying Magazine
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side. BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972. IEEE Spectrum
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
(only 14 hours from the Moon) + Planetary Defence early asteroid detection sensors on multiple 100,000 km tethers on each side of the Earth (206,000 km baseline) for stereoscopic vision will warn of incoming asteroids from the Sun or out of the asteroid belts. International Space Elevator Consortium
Mining asteroids or lunar regolith for valuable materials could mean fewer contaminated waters on Earth and less destruction of Appalachian mountaintops, for example. Forbes
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
U.S. officials fear thatupon achieving global space power status, China may utilize tactics in space to advanceterritorial claims on Earth and attempt to lay claim to lunar resources. JD Supra
As the 80% illuminated Moon aligns with Neptune, the planet will disappear behind the Moon's unilluminated edge and reappear from its bright side. AstroTelescopium
Moons around other planets, especially gas giants, could have similarly complex and unexpected origins. The Daily Galaxy - Great Discoveries Channel
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance. Gizmodo
Artemis II will mark the debut crewed flight - but not the first lunar landing - of an Apollo successor program aimed at returning astronauts to the moon's surface later this decade and ultimately establishing a sustainable outpost there as a stepping stone to future human exploration of Mars. chinadailyhk
Ultimately, SpaceX plans to use the Starship capsule as the landing vehicle that will ferry NASA astronauts to the lunar surface as soon as 2026 as part of the Artemis III mission - and eventually put the first humans on Mars. CNN
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
In the next 10 years, satellite launches into near-Earth orbit will increase exponentially, and space agencies such as NASA aim to establish bases on the Moon. The Conversation
The time standardization comes as China, India, Russia, Japan and others are also pushing for a greater presence in space - China, in particular, has said it aims to land its first astronauts on the moon before 2030. The Washington Post
Questions
Can?
What can be done to mitigate the environmental impacts of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
Exploration of new frontiers will produce new ways of imagining, new challenges, new technologies that can be of tremendous utility, says Grayling, who moderated a fireside chat Monday that was part of Northeastern's Thinking the Future series and recently published a book, Who Owns the Moon? phys.org
Can Antarctica serve as a model for international cooperation on the moon? Space
How?
Is THIS how the Moon will look in 2050? The Sun
How might international regulations influence the sustainability of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
How does space tourism contribute to sustainability challenges and opportunities? Space Voyage Ventures
Who?
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
Who will profit from the moon? Brisbane Times
What?
What would miners' lives be like on the Moon? The Conversation
What would a day living and working on the Moon really look like? SpaceNews
What does the new moon in Sagittarius mean for relationships? Glamour UK
When?
What happens when there's a private space mishap that strands paying passengers in orbit or on the moon? SpaceNews
When will 100 metric tons of clean, processed, water extracted at the lunar poles and positioned where we want it, cost less than a few tens of millions of dollars? Space
How will geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. play out when it comes to mining the Moon? Satellite Today
Will?
Will we be able to see the full Wolf Moon over the Southern Tier? Yahoo News
Will bitcoin go to the moon? Business Insider Africa
Humans will soon be able to mine on the moon - but should we? Futureseek Link Digest
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