Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

12 July 2024
Introduction
This set of automatically curated slides provides an instant overview about possible futures to help inform present day strategy, and for you to act on opportunities and risks and mitigate threats in a timely manner. Learn more.

You can also

If you'd like to create your own set of slides like these, just search for your topic of interest and then click "Publish".
Contents
User Guide
Click on the blue source names to view the original evidence.
Click on the donut charts or use the selection options below to change views.
Click on words in the clouds to view more details about it.
Press "F" for full-screen
Press "Esc" for overview
Sources
RSS Feeds
Twitter Searches
Web Searches
Twitter Feeds
World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The Artemis program is designed to build a robust infrastructure on the moon that will support long-duration missions and serve as a testing ground for the technologies and procedures needed for Mars exploration. The Daily Galaxy - Great Discoveries Channel
  • The Earth's inner core, a solid ball of iron and nickel about 70% of the size of the moon, rotates along with the rest of the planet, but scientists disagree about whether it might spin at a slightly slower, faster or equal speed, compared to the outer layers. Smithsonian Magazine
  • Another concern, Cheng says, is that China might be first to deploy a lunar positioning, navigation and timing system - a development that could confer major advantages in establishing standards for lunar activity, akin to the U.S. Scientific American
Weaknesses
  • One of the enduring difficulties of planning for Moon-based structures is bringing what could be many tons of material from the ground into Earth's orbit. Gizmodo
  • The United States should increase the NASA budget to the level it had at the end of the Cold War - adjusted for inflation - to pay for the transition to LEO platforms after the International Space Station ends by 2030 and execute the initial Artemis missions. SpaceNews
  • The successful transfer on Thursday of the precious samples, which scientists hope can reveal more about the origins of the solar system, comes as the United States expresses growing concerns about the advances in China's lunar and space exploration programmes. DAWN.COM
Opportunities
  • Intel expects to provide the fastest AI acceleration available towards the second half of 2024, plus another 50% gain in Lunar Lake GPU performance, alongside power consumption better than anything you have ever seen before. Windows Central
  • Due to the importance of helium-3 as a material, the Chinese government has approved three new missions to the Moon that will be carried out during the next ten decades.
  • NASA has a backup astronaut standing by for the first human moon mission in more than 50 years, which will lift off no earlier than 2025. Space
Threats
  • In a surprising twist, Lunar Lake chips will feature on-board memory, similar to Apple Silicon. Engadget
  • After winning NASA contracts to fly Artemis spacefarers to the South Pole of the Moon in the late 2020s, the rival space outfits could joust in the heavens above Mars, tens of millions of kilometers from their terrestrial rocket bases. Forbes
  • Even if future space explorers lose track of Lunar Library II, there's still a chance they will come across a different treasure trove of DNA sent into deep space aboard the Vulcan rocket's Centaur V upper stage. GeekWire
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, lander, flight
Emerging
artificial intelligence, EV, moon, 4G, bitcoin, 3D
Maturing
moon, lunar, astronaut, Mars, commercial, agency
Declining
moon, company, lunar, Mars, astronaut, budget
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
By 2030, up to 375 million people, or approximately 14% of the global workforce, may need to shift jobs due to the deployment of automation and AI. SpringerLink
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
PEST
Political
  • By 2030, more than 100 Moon missions by both governments and private companies are expected. Blog
  • As dozens of countries and private sector companies have expressed interest in establishing lunar operations by the end of the decade, including many in the South Pole region, it will be critical to determine how to minimize interference and contamination in lunar activities. NASA
  • If China succeeds in constructing a base on the Moon, it means it will occupy a lucrative high ground, for both strategic and geopolitical purposes. The Diplomat
Economic
  • Future segments, such as space-based solar power, orbital logistics, and Moon/asteroid mining, could kick in ~ $100 B in annual sales by 2040.
  • The next Blood Moon store sale will arrive in Apex Legends later in 2024, offering unique cosmetics for players to buy. GAME ENGAGE
  • While space tourism sounds like a frivolous affair, it is predicted to become a US $ 12.7 billion industry by 2031.
Social
  • Thales Alenia Space is building the ESPRIT (European System Providing Refuelling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications) module for Gateway, due to launch no earlier than 2029 on Artemis 5. The Engineer
  • NASA has selected Blue Origin for a $3.4 billion contract to create a human landing system for the Artemis V mission, set for 2029.
  • With the entrance of Mercury and Venus into Cancer on Monday and with the Moon (the planet of emotions) moving from Scorpio into the sign of Sagittarius, every zodiac sign can expect a serious stream of abundance to infuse their relationships today. YourTango
Technological
  • NASA awards SpaceX a $2.89 billion fixed-price contract to develop a version of Starship that could be used to transport astronauts from a capsule in the moon's orbit down to the lunar surface. Big Think
  • There are plans to deploy a group of communications satellites orbiting the Moon, along with landing a 1.5-metric-ton lunar rover intended for use by NASA's Artemis astronauts. Gizmodo
  • As humanity looks ahead to returning to the Moon over the coming decade, space exploration missions will be much longer, with many more space travelers and even space tourists. Discover Magazine
Financial Impact
PETs are projected to unleash between $1.1 trillion and $2.9 trillion of value, as highlighted in a report by Lunar Ventures. Syntheticus AG
From fiscal years 2012 through 2025, NASA's overall Artemis investment is projected to reach $93 billion, of which the SLS Program costs represent $23.8 billion spent through 2022. NextBigFuture.com
NASA's overall investment in its Artemis Moon program is projected to reach $93 billion from 2012 through 2025, of which the costs of SLS alone represent $23.8 billion spent through 2022. Gizmodo
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side. BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972. IEEE Spectrum
Through P4 S, Australia will provide an important contribution towards NASA's Artemis Accords, which plans to put the first woman and first person of colour on the Moon by 2030, as well as develop the technologies required for humans to venture to Mars and return to Earth in the 2040s. Connected Cities Lab
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Mining asteroids or lunar regolith for valuable materials could mean fewer contaminated waters on Earth and less destruction of Appalachian mountaintops, for example. Forbes
Anaemia is not a problem in space when your body is weightless, but when landing on Earth and potentially on other planets or moons with gravity, anaemia would affect energy, endurance and strength and could threaten mission objectives. E&T
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The moon could wind up as a staging ground for launches to elsewhere: Since it has only one-sixth of Earth's gravity, much less energy is needed to send a ship beyond the moon's pull than here on our planet. Magazine
JAXA envisions SLIM as a game-changer in lunar exploration, allowing future probes to explore resource-scarce planets with unprecedented precision. Interesting Engineering
Interest in exploring the moon has gained new momentum in recent years as scientists seek to determine whether it will be possible to mine earth's nearest neighbour for minerals and other resources that are shrinking on earth. The Chosunilbo
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
The new moon falls at 16 degrees of Cancer, forming a very close sextile to Uranus, the planet of rebellion and electrifying change, which will be at 15 degrees of fellow earth sign Taurus. InStyle
Orion will fly incredibly close to the moon's surface for a gravitational assist and fling itself into a new lunar orbit called a Distant Retrograde Orbit setting it up to become the furthest distance from Earth any human-rated spacecraft has ever achieved. Florida Today
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance. Gizmodo
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
AMD has already committed to delivering 40 TOPS of NPU performance in its next-generation Strix Point Ryzen processors due early 2025, while at its recent Vision 2024 conference Intel claimed 100 TOPS of platform-level AI performance for the Lunar Lake chips due in Q4 of 2024. Forbes
The time standardization comes as China, India, Russia, Japan and others are also pushing for a greater presence in space - China, in particular, has said it aims to land its first astronauts on the moon before 2030. The Washington Post
Questions
Can?
What can be done to mitigate the environmental impacts of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
Exploration of new frontiers will produce new ways of imagining, new challenges, new technologies that can be of tremendous utility, says Grayling, who moderated a fireside chat Monday that was part of Northeastern's Thinking the Future series and recently published a book, Who Owns the Moon? phys.org
Can Antarctica serve as a model for international cooperation on the moon? Space
How?
How might international regulations influence the sustainability of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
How does space tourism contribute to sustainability challenges and opportunities? Space Voyage Ventures
How many countries have undertaken successful missions to Mars and the moon and at the same time, designed and constructed an indigenous aircraft carrier? NewsX
Who?
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
Who will profit from the moon? Brisbane Times
What?
What are the long-term benefits of adopting sustainable practices in space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
What will we eat on the Moon? BBC
What will astronauts use to drive across the Moon? premium
When?
What happens when there's a private space mishap that strands paying passengers in orbit or on the moon? SpaceNews
When will 100 metric tons of clean, processed, water extracted at the lunar poles and positioned where we want it, cost less than a few tens of millions of dollars? Space
How will geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. play out when it comes to mining the Moon? Satellite Today
Will?
Particularly important to watch in moving forward on the moon, is how will countries conduct themselves? Space
How long will IM-1 Odysseus survive on the moon? Yahoo News
What will the future of Lunar exploration look like as humans return to the Moon? University of Leicester
Shaping Tomorrow Foresight

Shaping Tomorrow is a full-service foresight and collective intelligence company, offering expert panels, deep-dives, workshops and keynote speeches in addition to its horizon scanning services. Feel free to contact us at any time. You can ask for telephone training and to discuss your needs. We value your ideas, comments, encouragement and criticisms.