Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

13 November 2024
Introduction
This set of automatically curated slides provides an instant overview about possible futures to help inform present day strategy, and for you to act on opportunities and risks and mitigate threats in a timely manner. Learn more.

You can also

If you'd like to create your own set of slides like these, just search for your topic of interest and then click "Publish".
Contents
User Guide
Click on the blue source names to view the original evidence.
Click on the donut charts or use the selection options below to change views.
Click on words in the clouds to view more details about it.
Press "F" for full-screen
Press "Esc" for overview
Sources
RSS Feeds
Twitter Searches
Web Searches
Twitter Feeds
World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • IBM computers were essential to putting humans on the moon with NASA's Apollo projects, so there is hope that their professional relationship can be just as fruitful when they put their minds to climate change. Bizclik Media Ltd
  • Featuring multi-blockchain support and automated smart contracts, Artemis is setting a strong foundation that could significantly shape the future of online shopping. Crypto Reporter
  • The more durable and higher efficiency germanium-based solar panels are expected to power the Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway, a lunar orbiter that is pivotal to NASA's Artemis missions to establish a base on the Moon that will serve as a scientific outpost on humanity's path to Mars and beyond. North of 60 Mining News
Weaknesses
  • While the nearly full moon may hinder visibility of fainter meteors in 2024, patient observers might still catch some of the brightest streaks. Space Enthusiast
  • ESA's Zero Debris Approach ESA aims to limit debris generation in Earth and lunar orbits by 2030 through its Zero Debris Approach. Space Daily
  • NASA's LunaRecycle Challenge will incentivize the design and development of energy-efficient, low-mass, and low-impact recycling solutions that address physical waste streams and improve the sustainability of longer-duration lunar missions. NASA
Opportunities
  • The international return to the Moon is an opportunity for Canada to leverage its partnerships to unleash its domestic commercial space sector.
  • The Canadarm3 that Canada will build as a part of its contribution to Artemis requires mastery of not just robotics but also artificial intelligence, two technical areas that can create jobs, inspire innovation and help Canadians compete in a marketplace disrupted by emerging technology.
  • Artemis has emerged as a groundbreaking project that will transform digital commerce with the first fully decentralized blockchain marketplace. Brave New Coin
Threats
  • U.S. officials fear thatupon achieving global space power status, China may utilize tactics in space to advanceterritorial claims on Earth and attempt to lay claim to lunar resources. JD Supra
  • Looking ahead, the expansion of analog missions will align with the evolving goals of space exploration, particularly as global space agencies, including ISRO, intensify their focus on lunar bases and Mars missions. The Week
  • With the Artemis III mission, originally planned for 2026, at risk of slipping further toward the end of the decade, it's possible that China could yet be putting boots on the lunar surface ahead of the US. NASASpaceFlight.com
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, lander, commercial
Emerging
artificial intelligence, 4G, blockchain, EV, moon, PC
Maturing
moon, lunar, astronaut, Mars, commercial, agency
Declining
moon, company, lunar, Mars, astronaut, budget
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
In H1 2024, Visa PFD's Global Risk Investigations team recorded a 6% decrease in digital skimming incidents targeting either e-commerce merchants or third-party providers, compared with H2 2023. Fintech Singapore
AI could displace approximately 400 million workers or around 15% of the global workforce between 2016 and 2030. Kuensel Online
PEST
Political
  • Understanding how mini-moons are captured by Earth's gravity could have implications for planetary defence. Jegtheme
  • As seen from a roughly 165-mile-wide (266 kilometers) path across the Pacific Ocean, Patagonia (southern Chile and Argentina) and the Atlantic Ocean, the moon's shadow will go straight across the sun's center to create a brief ring of light dubbed a ring of fire. Space
  • The use of smart contracts on the Artemis blockchain ensures that transactions are transparent and tamper-proof, reducing the risk of fraud and disputes. Brave New Coin
Economic
  • Looking ahead to early 2025, January is forecast at 2.01 million TEU, while February shows a 9.3% decline due to Lunar New Year-related factory shutdowns in Asia. gCaptain
  • The first satellite tasked with observing the Earth's natural resources, TSC-Pathfinder, is expected to launch in 2023 whereas the most ambitious final satellite, TSC-2, will attempt to reach the Moon's orbit in 2027.
  • NASA is collaborating with DOE and industry to design, fabricate, and test a 40-kilowatt class fission power system to operate on the Moon by the early 2030s.
Social
  • China, Roscosmos, and the ESA hope to create lunar habitats and related infrastructure to allow for a permanent human presence on the Moon. Universe Today
  • The Korea Institute has developed a method to produce strong, homogeneous building materials using microwave sintering, which could significantly reduce the cost of lunar infrastructure development. SciTechDaily
  • Axiom Space and Nokia have partnered to develop the Lunar Surface Communications System, which will integrate 4G/LTE communication capabilities into Artemis III spacesuits. Space Foundation
Technological
  • For the first time, a non-American will set foot on the moon, marking a new era of international cooperation in space exploration. Space
  • Space tech will make waves with Blue Origin presenting new spacecraft designs for lunar missions. 9meters
  • Nasa plans to eventually send astronauts to the moon in a capsule called Orion, which will launch on a powerful, giant new rocket called SLS.
Financial Impact
PETs are projected to unleash between $1.1 trillion and $2.9 trillion of value, as highlighted in a report by Lunar Ventures. Syntheticus AG
EUS costs are expected to balloon to $2 billion through 2025 and reach $2.8 billion by the time Artemis IV lifts off in 2028. Flying Magazine
The Moon is emerging as a focal point for the next frontier in space exploration, with the lunar economy projected to reach USD 170 billion by 2040. Access Partnership
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side. BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972. IEEE Spectrum
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
(only 14 hours from the Moon) + Planetary Defence early asteroid detection sensors on multiple 100,000 km tethers on each side of the Earth (206,000 km baseline) for stereoscopic vision will warn of incoming asteroids from the Sun or out of the asteroid belts. International Space Elevator Consortium
Mining asteroids or lunar regolith for valuable materials could mean fewer contaminated waters on Earth and less destruction of Appalachian mountaintops, for example. Forbes
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Through P4 S, Australia will provide an important contribution towards NASA's Artemis Accords, which plans to put the first woman and first person of colour on the Moon by 2030, as well as develop the technologies required for humans to venture to Mars and return to Earth in the 2040s. Connected Cities Lab
As the 80% illuminated Moon aligns with Neptune, the planet will disappear behind the Moon's unilluminated edge and reappear from its bright side. AstroTelescopium
Moons around other planets, especially gas giants, could have similarly complex and unexpected origins. The Daily Galaxy - Great Discoveries Channel
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
The new moon falls at 16 degrees of Cancer, forming a very close sextile to Uranus, the planet of rebellion and electrifying change, which will be at 15 degrees of fellow earth sign Taurus. InStyle
Orion will fly incredibly close to the moon's surface for a gravitational assist and fling itself into a new lunar orbit called a Distant Retrograde Orbit setting it up to become the furthest distance from Earth any human-rated spacecraft has ever achieved. Florida Today
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance. Gizmodo
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
AMD has already committed to delivering 40 TOPS of NPU performance in its next-generation Strix Point Ryzen processors due early 2025, while at its recent Vision 2024 conference Intel claimed 100 TOPS of platform-level AI performance for the Lunar Lake chips due in Q4 of 2024. Forbes
The time standardization comes as China, India, Russia, Japan and others are also pushing for a greater presence in space - China, in particular, has said it aims to land its first astronauts on the moon before 2030. The Washington Post
Questions
Can?
What can be done to mitigate the environmental impacts of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
Exploration of new frontiers will produce new ways of imagining, new challenges, new technologies that can be of tremendous utility, says Grayling, who moderated a fireside chat Monday that was part of Northeastern's Thinking the Future series and recently published a book, Who Owns the Moon? phys.org
Can Antarctica serve as a model for international cooperation on the moon? Space
How?
Is THIS how the Moon will look in 2050? The Sun
How might international regulations influence the sustainability of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
How does space tourism contribute to sustainability challenges and opportunities? Space Voyage Ventures
Who?
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
Who will profit from the moon? Brisbane Times
What?
What role has the Moon played in the development of space exploration policies and priorities? Space Voyage Ventures
What are the long-term benefits of adopting sustainable practices in space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
What will we eat on the Moon? BBC
When?
What happens when there's a private space mishap that strands paying passengers in orbit or on the moon? SpaceNews
When will 100 metric tons of clean, processed, water extracted at the lunar poles and positioned where we want it, cost less than a few tens of millions of dollars? Space
How will geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. play out when it comes to mining the Moon? Satellite Today
Will?
Will Plants Grow on the Moon? Nautilus
What will astronauts use to drive across the Moon? premium
Particularly important to watch in moving forward on the moon, is how will countries conduct themselves? Space
Shaping Tomorrow Foresight

Shaping Tomorrow is a full-service foresight and collective intelligence company, offering expert panels, deep-dives, workshops and keynote speeches in addition to its horizon scanning services. Feel free to contact us at any time. You can ask for telephone training and to discuss your needs. We value your ideas, comments, encouragement and criticisms.