Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

1 March 2025
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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Twitter Searches
Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • Airfreight rates have remained stable over the past week, even with potential disruptions from new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, the temporary suspension of the de minimis exemption, and the Lunar New Year slowdown. Southern Star Navigation - Global Logistics Insights
  • The developments in lunar communication could lead to advancements in Earth-based 4G and 5G networks, resulting in stronger, more efficient, and more reliable communication systems worldwide. The Daily Galaxy - Great Discoveries Channel
  • If all goes as planned, Artemis III could still attempt a lunar landing by 2027-provided that SpaceX can resolve its Starship issues and NASA's political direction remains stable. Curiosmos
Weaknesses
  • With 13 separate firsts identified for Artemis III, including new spacesuit designs and the use of SpaceX's Starship lunar lander, the cumulative risk of failure increases significantly. Forward Pathway
  • Failing to do so risks establishing de facto spheres of lunar influence that exacerbate rather than ameliorate tensions back on Earth. Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Analysts at ING are expecting a modest uptick in the year-on-year number to around 0.4% YoY, as we expect food inflation to see an uptick from the Lunar New Year effect, but non-food inflation is likely to remain weak as price competition remains cutthroat. / China investing.com
Opportunities
  • The current wave of lunar exploration, spearheaded by initiatives like MIT's payload launch and NASA's Artemis program, is not just about revisiting the Moon; it's about establishing a sustainable human presence that could serve as a springboard for interplanetary exploration. Forward Pathway
  • Artemis III will be the first crewed mission to the lunar south pole, an area believed to harbor water ice - a critical resource for future lunar habitation and potential fuel for deeper space exploration. Forward Pathway
  • Nokia envisions a network that could support lunar habitats and even integrate communication capabilities into astronaut spacesuits, enhancing safety and operational efficiency. Forward Pathway
Threats
  • Lack of Earth's atmospheric and magnetic protection increases health risks, especially beyond low-earth orbit (e.g., Moon missions). Legacy IAS Academy
  • The current calculations show no danger to Earth because its minimum orbit intersection distance measures only 0.00098 AU, equivalent to 147,000 km, which places it inside Earth's Moon orbit. News9 LIVE
  • Blue Origin's lunar gravity simulation has crucial implications for future missions, reducing risks and enhancing equipment readiness. OpenTools
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, lander, commercial
Emerging
artificial intelligence, 4G, blockchain, EV, crypto, moon
Maturing
moon, lunar, astronaut, Mars, commercial, agency
Declining
moon, company, lunar, Mars, astronaut, budget
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
According to McKinsey's report, 'Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained', by 2030, up to 375 million workers globally - or 14% of the workforce - will need to transition to entirely new occupational categories due to automation, digital disruption, and industrial transformation. The News International
Projections of $3 million, $13 million, or even $45 million by 2045 have already been floated, driven by Bitcoin's role as a hedge against global debt and inflation. CCN.com
PEST
Political
  • Musk's advocacy to reach the Red Planet has continued despite increasing intentions by China to become only the second country to put humans on the Moon by 2030. Yahoo News
  • In a decade or two when the Artemis Program exists only in the rear-view mirror or history, it could finally become the global governance framework for all nations exploring and exploiting space beyond Earth orbit. Room The Space Journal of Asgardia
  • The Lunar New Year, potential U.S. port disruptions, and new regulatory frameworks are among the key factors influencing supply chains for businesses in Australia and New Zealand. Seabridge Global Logistics
Economic
  • A report by NASA's Office of Inspector General in August found quality issues with Boeing's work on the Exploration Upper Stage, a more powerful upper stage planned for the Block 1 B version of SLS that will begin service on Artemis 4. SpaceNews
  • With companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin paving the way for space tourism, there will be a need for professionals who understand the logistics and management of space travel experiences. Mintly
  • Global Freight Rate Trends Trans-Pacific Eastbound: Rates: Carriers have reduced short-term rates to stimulate demand ahead of Lunar New Year, with further adjustments expected mid-February. World Group
Social
  • With the Artemis 2 mission scheduled for 2026, having humans aboard spacecraft in cislunar space for the first time in 53 years will require infrastructure and the means to protect it. SpaceNews
  • Whilst the Wolf Amendment remains, it is unlikely in the short term that China will join and it may thus prevent the Artemis Accords from being adopted as a global framework for responsible behaviours in space. Room The Space Journal of Asgardia
  • From the appearance of a brilliantly bright Venus to the first total lunar eclipse since 2022, there will be plenty of reasons to look skywards at night in 2025. Live Science
Technological
  • The lunar occultation of Mars will be visible from parts of Canada, most of Scandinavia and Russia, and parts of Asia. Live Science
  • Skywatchers in northern latitudes might even be able to catch a lunar occultation, when the moon appears to swallow a planet from the sky. Live Science
  • If, for instance, microbes can thrive in a lake buried beneath Earth's south polar ice cap, maybe similar organisms could exist in glancingly similar extraterrestrial environments, such as the mysterious ice-covered ocean of Jupiter's moon Europa or water-logged regions of Mars's subsurface. Scientific American
Financial Impact
PETs are projected to unleash between $1.1 trillion and $2.9 trillion of value, as highlighted in a report by Lunar Ventures. Syntheticus AG
Ives said that if the Trump administration increases funding for NASA's efforts to return to the moon and travel to Mars, SpaceX's value could easily increase to $500 billion or more. CNN
EUS costs are expected to balloon to $2 billion through 2025 and reach $2.8 billion by the time Artemis IV lifts off in 2028. Flying Magazine
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side. BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972. IEEE Spectrum
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
(only 14 hours from the Moon) + Planetary Defence early asteroid detection sensors on multiple 100,000 km tethers on each side of the Earth (206,000 km baseline) for stereoscopic vision will warn of incoming asteroids from the Sun or out of the asteroid belts. International Space Elevator Consortium
Mining asteroids or lunar regolith for valuable materials could mean fewer contaminated waters on Earth and less destruction of Appalachian mountaintops, for example. Forbes
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Harvesting the quantities of Helium-3 that Interlune envisions would require processing millions of tons of lunar regolith, an undertaking comparable to operating a copper mine on Earth. SpaceNews
U.S. officials fear thatupon achieving global space power status, China may utilize tactics in space to advanceterritorial claims on Earth and attempt to lay claim to lunar resources. JD Supra
As the 80% illuminated Moon aligns with Neptune, the planet will disappear behind the Moon's unilluminated edge and reappear from its bright side. AstroTelescopium
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance. Gizmodo
Artemis II will mark the debut crewed flight - but not the first lunar landing - of an Apollo successor program aimed at returning astronauts to the moon's surface later this decade and ultimately establishing a sustainable outpost there as a stepping stone to future human exploration of Mars. chinadailyhk
From command modules to lunar rovers, aluminum was critical in designing vehicles that could withstand the extreme conditions of space while remaining lightweight enough to escape Earth's gravity. MFG Shop
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
In the coming year, Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to continue testing its Starship rocket, which is designed to deliver cargo and people to near-Earth orbits, as well as to the Moon and Mars. Hitecher
In the next 10 years, satellite launches into near-Earth orbit will increase exponentially, and space agencies such as NASA aim to establish bases on the Moon. The Conversation
Questions
Can?
How can we enable more precise navigation on the Moon? SciTechDaily
Can ocean-floor mining oversights help us regulate space debris and mining on the Moon? Copernical.com
What can be done to mitigate the environmental impacts of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
How?
How much energy is required to heat lunar regolith to its melting point? Nature
Is THIS how the Moon will look in 2050? The Sun
How might international regulations influence the sustainability of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
Who?
Exploration of new frontiers will produce new ways of imagining, new challenges, new technologies that can be of tremendous utility, says Grayling, who moderated a fireside chat Monday that was part of Northeastern's Thinking the Future series and recently published a book, Who Owns the Moon? phys.org
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
What?
What are the use cases of digital twins in space tourism and astronaut health? Blogillion
What roles could future space stations play in space tourism and deeper space exploration? Science Magazine
What would miners' lives be like on the Moon? The Conversation
When?
What happens when there's a private space mishap that strands paying passengers in orbit or on the moon? SpaceNews
When will 100 metric tons of clean, processed, water extracted at the lunar poles and positioned where we want it, cost less than a few tens of millions of dollars? Space
How will geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. play out when it comes to mining the Moon? Satellite Today
Will?
Will we be able to see the full Wolf Moon over the Southern Tier? Yahoo News
Will bitcoin go to the moon? Business Insider Africa
Humans will soon be able to mine on the moon - but should we? Futureseek Link Digest
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