Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

24 March 2023
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Through P4 S, Australia will provide an important contribution towards NASA's Artemis Accords, which plans to put the first woman and first person of colour on the Moon by 2030, as well as develop the technologies required for humans to venture to Mars and return to Earth in the 2040s. Connected Cities Lab
An integral part of NASA's plan to return astronauts to the moon this decade is the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will be humanity's first permanent outpost outside of low Earth orbit. IEEE Spectrum
The total cost of Nasa's lunar programme, Artemis, will have ballooned to $93 billion by 2025 - before it even gets its new rocket off the planet for a test flight. The Times
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • NASA wants to address the dust problem more proactively to help protect its Artemis astronauts, which will start exploring the lunar surface in the mid-2020s, if all goes according to plan. Space
  • We expect stronger trading to follow next week, supported by investors' positive expectations related to further relaxation of Covid restrictions in China after Lunar New Year travel goes back to normal. US Global Investors
  • Cathay expects strong demand to carry on through January and the Lunar New Year period, especially following Mainland China's decision to reopen borders. Flight Global
Weaknesses
  • The MIT team focused on a lunar robot that could navigate the moon's South Pole, which some suspect could include frozen water - essential for astronauts' long-term survival - but also complex terrain with thick dust, rocky slopes and lava tubes. Engadget
  • Axiom Space, which is developing next-generation spacesuits for the next human return to the moon, will deliver advanced capabilities for life support and pressure garments. Hewlett Packard Enterprise
  • If the USA and China begin competing for access to resources on the Moon or other celestial bodies, it could limit Pakistan's ability to participate in space exploration or benefit from the resources available in space. Pakistan Today
Opportunities
  • The U.K. Space Agency has committed to funding Rolls-Royce's project aimed at creating a small, nuclear-powered reactor that could serve as a sustainable energy source for future lunar bases. Transport Times
  • The ESA-supported Lunar Pathfinder will be launched into lunar orbit in 2024 with the intent of using it as a communication satellite for future moon missions. GPS World
  • Given the risks Seoul faces from geopolitical tensions and recognising the constraints of the intensifying China-US rivalry on South Korea's foreign policy, the Moon administration adopted its own approach to the Indo-Pacific region, the New Southern Policy (NSP). German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Threats
  • THE WOODLANDS, TEXAS - Vestiges of a moon-forming cataclysm could have kick-started plate tectonics on Earth. Science News Magazine
  • Space exploration, particularly efforts to mine the Moon, is in danger of becoming an exercise in colonialism and exploitation. Spiked
  • Space tech companies like Blue Origin, or SpaceX, who cracks how to make solar cells using dust from the moon, will go on to control a major segment of the space industry when space travel becomes more common - electricity in space. FirstPost
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, flight, lander
Emerging
moon, EV, 3D, 4G, artificial intelligence, crypto
Maturing
moon, lunar, astronaut, Mars, commercial, agency
Declining
moon, company, Mars, astronaut, budget, coal
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Artificial intelligence could displace roughly 15% of workers, or 400 million people, worldwide between 2016 and 2030. ABC News
By 2030, some 73 million Baby Boomers - people born in the two decades after World War II - will be 65 or older. Next Avenue
PEST
Political
  • CHUNGHWA EXPRESS workers threatened to strike over year-end bonuses before the Lunar New Year, as the latest labour dispute in Taiwan to center around year-end bonuses. New Bloom Magazine
  • In 2021, SpaceX even beat out competition from Jeff Bezos' own spaceflight company, Blue Origin, to clinch a $2.9 billion government contract in 2021 to fly NASA astronauts to the moon with its Starship rocket, tentatively by 2025. Fortune
  • We expect stronger trading to follow next week, supported by investors' positive expectations related to further relaxation of Covid restrictions in China after Lunar New Year travel goes back to normal. US Global Investors
Economic
  • The Lunar Base Camp planned for the 2030s can be sustained by mining the moon for water, oxygen and building materials. The Hill
  • Rolls-Royce is planning to have a reactor developed and ready to send to the moon by 2029. National Technology News
  • The approval of the BC Mines Act Permit is the final step required to allow Artemis Gold to commence major works construction activities at Blackwater Mine in Q1 2023 with the expectation of an initial gold pour in H2 2024. The Assay
Social
  • When astronauts step onto the moon in 2025, the dark cover layer will be swapped for a white insulation layer for thermal protection. The New York Times
  • A user terminal payload will support Lunar Pathfinder commissioning and LuSEE-Night communications. GovCon Wire
  • Like NASA, the ILRS mission architecture envisions the creation of infrastructure on the lunar surface, including a long-term base, a transportation facility, a research station, and a ground support facility. / China Universe Today
Technological
  • The ESA-supported Lunar Pathfinder will be launched into lunar orbit in 2024 with the intent of using it as a communication satellite for future moon missions. GPS World
  • Once back from the surface of the moon, Starship will lack the fuel needed to fly back to Earth. collectSPACE.com
  • Once at the moon, two of the crew members will transfer over to the human landing system, a version of SpaceX's Starship spacecraft, while the other two stay in lunar orbit aboard Orion. collectSPACE.com
Financial Impact
Between lunar missions and commercial space stations, low-Earth economy and vital information-gathering about our planet, investments in the space industry could reach $1 trillion in the 2030s. World Economic Forum
By 2045, China seeks to become the dominant space power, and by mid-century, it aims to develop an Earth-Moon space economic zone potentially capable of generating $10 trillion in value per year. The National Interest
Both companies are able to compete for task orders - be they for low Earth orbit missions, or lunar sorties - through 2034, with a maximum contract value of $3.5 billion. SpaceFlight Insider
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Through P4 S, Australia will provide an important contribution towards NASA's Artemis Accords, which plans to put the first woman and first person of colour on the Moon by 2030, as well as develop the technologies required for humans to venture to Mars and return to Earth in the 2040s. Connected Cities Lab
The Luna-25 lander, possibly launching in mid-2022, will mark Russia's first moon landing since 1976, when the Soviet-era Luna-24 lander collected lunar samples to return to Earth. The New York Times
ESA's large-class science missions for the timeframe 2035-2050 will focus on moons of the giant Solar System planets, temperate exoplanets or the galactic ecosystem, and new physical probes of the early universe. phys.org
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
As recognized with the quarantine of astronauts returning from early Apollo lunar missions, sending humans to, and returning them from, extraterrestrial bodies requires measures that minimize the risk of astronauts introducing dangerous diseases to Earth. Council on Foreign Relations
A NASA cubesat lunar mission lost contact with Earth a day after deployment, jeopardizing its plans to demonstrate the orbit that will be used for subsequent Artemis missions. End Grade Inflation
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
At the time of December's new moon, a whopping five planets will be clustered together in Capricorn, creating what's known in astrology as a stellium. Bustle
Orion will fly incredibly close to the moon's surface for a gravitational assist and fling itself into a new lunar orbit called a Distant Retrograde Orbit setting it up to become the furthest distance from Earth any human-rated spacecraft has ever achieved. Florida Today
Another vehicle that the space agency has adopted into its Artemis program to return humans to the moon - the Starship from SpaceX and Elon Musk - could finally fly beyond the bounds of Earth's atmosphere for the first time in early December. CNet
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
The new moon falls at 16 degrees of Cancer, forming a very close sextile to Uranus, the planet of rebellion and electrifying change, which will be at 15 degrees of fellow earth sign Taurus. InStyle
The moon's barren landscape and extreme temperatures make it not ideal for large or permanent populations, but it can serve as a steppingstone toward distant planets that humans could potentially colonize. Columbia University
Lunar nights are equivalent to 14 days on Earth, and reliable electricity provided by fission power systems will be needed to survive extreme temperatures. Energy.gov
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
NASA wants to experiment with a new orbit around the moon that it hopes to use in the coming years to once again land astronauts on the lunar surface. / New Zealand CP24
In the coming years, SpaceX will provide the Human Landing System (HLS) for the Artemis III mission - the first crewed mission to the Moon since the Apollo Era. Universe Today
Questions
Can?
Can we leave the mapping of the planets and moons in our solar system to AI-powered systems? GIM International
Can plants grow on the moon? Green Prophet
Can plants grow in a barren landscape such as the surface of the moon? Green Prophet
How?
How would firing moon dust into space stop global warming? Euronews.com
Assuming enough people were so genuinely naive as to imagine there's a plausible chance of living a happy future behind a lunar dust cloud, how are we doing with actual moral hazards down on the ground, in reality? Skeptical Science
How will astronauts survive and thrive in the harsh lunar environment? Space
Who?
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
Who will profit from the moon? Brisbane Times
What?
What country in the world, aside from a few unfriendly powers such as China and Russia, would not want the American space agency's help in their own moon shot? The Hill
What new information will we continue to learn about Neptune's largest moon, Triton, in the coming years, and possibly decades? Universe Today
What if the moon were a hollow piece of alien technology? Popular Science
When?
How will geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. play out when it comes to mining the Moon? Satellite Today
When will lunar recycling become a reality? BBC Sky at Night Magazine
When will see Europeans on the Moon? SpaceWatch.Global
Will?
Will we be boring deep holes in the Moon to bury it, or will we simply jettison it further into deep space? CounterPunch.org
Will selling space on a lunar lander be enough to sustain a company in the long term? Stars and Stripes
If the Moon's orbit around the Earth becomes something distant and only observable through high-powered telescopes, will that continue to influence space settlers' religious activities? Big Think
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