Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

27 July 2024
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030. The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The moon experiences solar and cosmic radiation 150 times stronger than that on Earth, and faces increased risk of meteorite strikes. All That's Interesting
  • There are grave national security risks at play if the United States cedes any advantage in the cislunar regime to China or others with ambitions to dominate lunar or deep space exploration. Air & Space Forces Magazine
  • The Artemis program is designed to build a robust infrastructure on the moon that will support long-duration missions and serve as a testing ground for the technologies and procedures needed for Mars exploration. The Daily Galaxy - Great Discoveries Channel
Weaknesses
  • Beijing's space program is part of the broader realm of U.S.-China competition, with clear diplomatic, military, and economic dimensions, including concerns about China's counter-space weapons, cybersecurity threats, and potential to exploit lunar resources. Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada
  • Current dust exposure limits are based on Apollo-era samples that spent decades in long-term storage on Earth; their diminished reactivity may lead to underestimation of potential harm that could be caused by lunar dust exposure. astrobiology
  • One of the enduring difficulties of planning for Moon-based structures is bringing what could be many tons of material from the ground into Earth's orbit. Gizmodo
Opportunities
  • NASA is interested in methanogens because they may give insights into life on Earth more than 3 billion years ago and the potential for life on other planets and moons where methane has been detected. ScienceDaily
  • The Near Space Network and its new LEGS antennas will focus on lunar missions while allowing the Deep Space Network to support missions farther out into the solar system-like the James Webb Space Telescope and the interstellar Voyager missions. phys.org
  • As NASA works toward sustaining a human presence on the moon, communications and navigation support will be crucial to each mission's success. phys.org
Threats
  • Attacks could even affect spacecraft carrying humans, such as NASA's Orion capsule that's designed to take astronauts to the Moon. Stuff South Africa
  • Even a more risk-tolerant Xi Jinping is unlikely to shoot for the moon by launching an attack on Taiwan that is not guaranteed to succeed. Brookings
  • In a surprising twist, Lunar Lake chips will feature on-board memory, similar to Apple Silicon. Engadget
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, lander, flight
Emerging
artificial intelligence, EV, moon, 4G, bitcoin, crypto
Maturing
moon, lunar, astronaut, Mars, commercial, agency
Declining
moon, company, lunar, Mars, astronaut, budget
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Artificial intelligence technologies could lead to the creation of about 97 million new jobs worldwide by 2025, outpacing the approximately 85 million jobs displaced to technology or machines. Washington State Standard
By 2025, 1,800 million people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, while two-thirds of the world's population could be under water stress conditions. Elcano Royal Institute
PEST
Political
  • By 2030, more than 100 Moon missions by both governments and private companies are expected. Blog
  • As dozens of countries and private sector companies have expressed interest in establishing lunar operations by the end of the decade, including many in the South Pole region, it will be critical to determine how to minimize interference and contamination in lunar activities. NASA
  • If China succeeds in constructing a base on the Moon, it means it will occupy a lucrative high ground, for both strategic and geopolitical purposes. The Diplomat
Economic
  • If the world is unable to rein in emissions, climate change could increase the length of a day by 2.62 milliseconds by the end of the century - overtaking the natural impacts of the moon. CNN
  • Artemis appears to be in charge of the best cryptocurrency presales list, and crypto analysts anticipate further increases. TechBullion
  • Future segments, such as space-based solar power, orbital logistics, and Moon/asteroid mining, could kick in ~ $100 B in annual sales by 2040.
Social
  • Concepts like asteroid mining, lunar exploration, in-orbit manufacturing or servicing, space tourism are not going to be fully achieved until we get a global connected infrastructure in space. Yourstory
  • Cancer the Moon is going to be in a New Moon geocentric conjunction with the Sun and thus forming the next Sun-Moon-Earth syzygy alignment. Lunaf Moon
  • Thales Alenia Space is building the ESPRIT (European System Providing Refuelling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications) module for Gateway, due to launch no earlier than 2029 on Artemis 5. The Engineer
Technological
  • Lunar Lake processors are expected to offer enhanced power efficiency, a fourfold increase in NPU processing capabilities, a 50% improvement in Intel Arc GPU speeds utilizing the new Arc Battlemage architecture, and integrated on-chip memory. Medium
  • Astrobotic will still attempt to land its Griffin spacecraft on the Moon in 2025, but the VIPER rover will not be on board. PMF IAS
  • In 2029 the sizeable space rock will swing by our planet within one tenth of the Earth-moon distance. Scientific American
Financial Impact
PETs are projected to unleash between $1.1 trillion and $2.9 trillion of value, as highlighted in a report by Lunar Ventures. Syntheticus AG
From fiscal years 2012 through 2025, NASA's overall Artemis investment is projected to reach $93 billion, of which the SLS Program costs represent $23.8 billion spent through 2022. NextBigFuture.com
NASA's overall investment in its Artemis Moon program is projected to reach $93 billion from 2012 through 2025, of which the costs of SLS alone represent $23.8 billion spent through 2022. Gizmodo
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy. SpaceNews
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side. BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972. IEEE Spectrum
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Mining asteroids or lunar regolith for valuable materials could mean fewer contaminated waters on Earth and less destruction of Appalachian mountaintops, for example. Forbes
Anaemia is not a problem in space when your body is weightless, but when landing on Earth and potentially on other planets or moons with gravity, anaemia would affect energy, endurance and strength and could threaten mission objectives. E&T
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Through P4 S, Australia will provide an important contribution towards NASA's Artemis Accords, which plans to put the first woman and first person of colour on the Moon by 2030, as well as develop the technologies required for humans to venture to Mars and return to Earth in the 2040s. Connected Cities Lab
The imaging payload's design will utilize Redwire's Argus platform, a proven vision system that has been demonstrated on orbit and has multiple upcoming missions to low Earth orbit, geostationary orbit, and the Moon. Yahoo Finance
The moon could wind up as a staging ground for launches to elsewhere: Since it has only one-sixth of Earth's gravity, much less energy is needed to send a ship beyond the moon's pull than here on our planet. Magazine
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
The new moon falls at 16 degrees of Cancer, forming a very close sextile to Uranus, the planet of rebellion and electrifying change, which will be at 15 degrees of fellow earth sign Taurus. InStyle
Orion will fly incredibly close to the moon's surface for a gravitational assist and fling itself into a new lunar orbit called a Distant Retrograde Orbit setting it up to become the furthest distance from Earth any human-rated spacecraft has ever achieved. Florida Today
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance. Gizmodo
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
AMD has already committed to delivering 40 TOPS of NPU performance in its next-generation Strix Point Ryzen processors due early 2025, while at its recent Vision 2024 conference Intel claimed 100 TOPS of platform-level AI performance for the Lunar Lake chips due in Q4 of 2024. Forbes
The time standardization comes as China, India, Russia, Japan and others are also pushing for a greater presence in space - China, in particular, has said it aims to land its first astronauts on the moon before 2030. The Washington Post
Questions
Can?
What can be done to mitigate the environmental impacts of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
Exploration of new frontiers will produce new ways of imagining, new challenges, new technologies that can be of tremendous utility, says Grayling, who moderated a fireside chat Monday that was part of Northeastern's Thinking the Future series and recently published a book, Who Owns the Moon? phys.org
Can Antarctica serve as a model for international cooperation on the moon? Space
How?
Is THIS how the Moon will look in 2050? The Sun
How might international regulations influence the sustainability of space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
How does space tourism contribute to sustainability challenges and opportunities? Space Voyage Ventures
Who?
Who is in the best position to build long-term industrialization on the moon? Politico
Who will be most affected by the new moon? My Imperfect Life
Who will profit from the moon? Brisbane Times
What?
What are the long-term benefits of adopting sustainable practices in space tourism? Space Voyage Ventures
What will we eat on the Moon? BBC
What will astronauts use to drive across the Moon? premium
When?
What happens when there's a private space mishap that strands paying passengers in orbit or on the moon? SpaceNews
When will 100 metric tons of clean, processed, water extracted at the lunar poles and positioned where we want it, cost less than a few tens of millions of dollars? Space
How will geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. play out when it comes to mining the Moon? Satellite Today
Will?
Particularly important to watch in moving forward on the moon, is how will countries conduct themselves? Space
How long will IM-1 Odysseus survive on the moon? Yahoo News
What will the future of Lunar exploration look like as humans return to the Moon? University of Leicester
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