Fusion

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

28 September 2023
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, or ITER, is the multi-billion dollar tokamak megaproject aimed at achieving fusion on Earth, and it will not achieve first plasma until 2025. Popular Mechanics
The world's first commercial nuclear fusion reactor will be up and running by 2040, the UK government has pledged. Euronews.com
The ST-HTS aims to be the world's first spherical tokamak to demonstrate the full potential of high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets, and is due to be commissioned in the mid-2020s. The Engineer
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • Creating a robust AI/ML platform with very large curated datasets and efficient processing tools will be transformational for fusion energy. HPCwire
  • Nuclear fusion has been touted by its supporters as a clean, abundant and safe source of energy that could eventually allow humanity to break its dependence on coal, crude oil, natural gas and other hydrocarbons driving a global climate crisis. phys.org
  • As reported by the South China Morning Post, Chinese researchers will try to create a fusion reaction by using an incredibly strong electric charge to ignite two types of hydrogen isotopes-deuterium and tritium. Newsweek
Weaknesses
  • To keep maximum tritium concentrations low, TVA will use a feed and bleed technique, which will require additional cooling water per fuel cycle in order to ensure that TVA discharges are within regulatory limits. Federal Register
  • While debate is raging around the dangers of tritium, it is fair to say that the decision to release wastewater will symbolically hurt Japan. The Diplomat
  • The first discharge of 7,800 cubic meters - which will happen over about 17 days - contained approximately up to 63 becquerels of tritium per liter, which is well below the drinking water limit set by the World Health Organization. EcoWatch
Opportunities
  • With affordable, easily deployable fusion energy systems, areas of the world without sufficient food and water could turn to ocean water desalinization to provide clean water and to hydroponic farms to grow food without expensive pesticides and chemicals. Forbes
  • Nuclear fusion has the potential to power the planet endlessly. Forbes
  • MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center will receive DoE support to improve access to fusion data and increase workforce diversity. SciTechDaily
Threats
  • A key theme at UAE's COP 28 in Dubai later in 2023, fusion technology is expected to deliver energy security and play an important role in building a net zero world in the fight against climate change. Khalifa University
  • Tritium is a radiation hazard to humans only if ingested in large quantities. The Atlantic
  • The release of currently filtered cooling water containing tritium atoms from the Fukushima plant will not cause physically detrimental effects. The Guardian
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
fusion, clean, fuel, built, carbon-free, plasma
Emerging
fusion, EV, charger, commercial, clean, built
Maturing
fusion, commercial, clean, carbon, company, built
Declining
national, coal, fusion, environment, isotope, plant
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, or ITER, is the multi-billion dollar tokamak megaproject aimed at achieving fusion on Earth, and it will not achieve first plasma until 2025. Popular Mechanics
The ST-HTS will be the world's first spherical tokamak to use high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets and is due to be commissioned in the mid-2020s. Tokamak Energy
PEST
Political
  • TEPCO will dilute the treated water until its tritium level falls below the regulatory limit - when it is considered safe for drinking under World Health Organization standards - before pumping it into the Pacific. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • TEPCO plans to dilute it with a large amount of seawater so that the activity of tritium, a radioactive substance in the nuclear sewage, is less than one-fortieth of the national standard, and then discharged through the undersea tunnel. Teller Report
  • TEPCO plans to dilute it with a large amount of seawater so that the activity of tritium is less than one-fortieth of the national standard, and then discharged through the undersea tunnel. Teller Report
Economic
  • Nuclear fusion has the potential to power the planet endlessly. Forbes
  • Working with researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's Sandia National Laboratories, they have produced the prototype of a small plasma igniter that could replace spark plugs, nudging the fossil fuel in engine cylinders to give up its energy in a much cleaner, more efficient way. Newsweek
  • Tritium has a half-life of 12.3 years, which means the radioactivity of tritiated materials such as HTO will be halved in about 12 years. American Chemical Society
Social
  • Should you ever need to dismantle your Neutron Shielding, it will yield 47 units of Deuterium, which is not really a smart choice as you will be losing out on the Cobalt and Wiring Loom. Esports News Network | ESTNN
  • Groundwater containing radioactive tritium may have reached the edge of the Mississippi River in Monticello, but at very low levels that do not pose a risk to human health or the environment. MPR News
  • The Energy Department estimates it will take 15-20 years to achieve a major multibillion overhaul of its tritium production infrastructure. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Technological
  • MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center will receive DoE support to improve access to fusion data and increase workforce diversity. SciTechDaily
  • Oracle Red Bull Racing uses OCI to benefit its Sim Racing team and is using Oracle Fusion Cloud CX to power new fan engagement opportunities through 2023. Oracle
  • Celanese, a specialty materials and chemical manufacturing company, envisions a Digital Plant of the Future powered by Cognite Data Fusion on Microsoft Azure. Azure Blog
Financial Impact
Up to £1.5m for prototype development and evaluation is available to organisations, to 'realise the potential of lithium in an economic, sustainable and scalable fusion energy fuel-cycle'. GOV.UK
Built of one million components and ten million parts and designed to harness fusion energy, ITER will be the world's largest tokamak ever built, with a plasma radius of 6.2m and a vacuum vessel of 840m ³ able to withstand temperatures reaching 150 million degrees Celsius, nothing less. Metrology News
Fusion-powered rockets could potentially reach speeds of up to 500,000 miles per hour, allowing for faster journeys to Mars and even outer planets of the solar system. EnergyPortal.eu
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
The ST-HTS, which will be the world's first spherical tokamak to demonstrate the full potential of high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets, is due to be commissioned in the mid-2020s. Tokamak Energy
STEP is attempting to be the world's first commercial fusion power station, aiming to produce a concept design by 2024, leading to a prototype plant in the UK, targeting completion by 2040. Nei Magazine
The UK hopes to deliver the world's first prototype fusion power plant by 2040. GOV.UK
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
With two sites - one in Delft, The Netherlands, and one is Zurich, Switzerland, - Cradle is straddling the world of biology and artificial intelligence, a powerful fusion of technologies that threatens to disrupt the way scientists design proteins. Forbes
When applied to energy production on Earth, fusion will be very different from the fission reactions used in nuclear power plants today. The Christian Science Monitor
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Nuclear fusion has been touted by its supporters as a clean, abundant and safe source of energy that could eventually allow humanity to break its dependence on coal, crude oil, natural gas and other hydrocarbons driving a global climate crisis. phys.org
NT-Tao is pioneering a new approach to fusion, combining the latest in advanced technologies that will provide the world with access to a compact and scalable fusion solution for all energy needs. PR Newswire
Tritium envisions a world in which fast EV charging is everywhere. Business News Australia
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Fusion-generated electricity will ultimately transform the world with abundant, clean energy. Tech Xplore
There are downsides - a helium-3 fusion reactor will need to operate at much higher temperatures than a tritium reactor, for example, and helium-3 is extremely rare and difficult to isolate on Earth. New Atlas
Fusion energy could be the ultimate power of the future - low carbon, safe and sustainable - and we want the UK to continue to lead the world as we work to unlock its potential and build back greener. GOV.UK
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Tech giant Microsoft announced an agreement to source energy from the clean energy startup Helion' planned fusion power plant, anticipated to be the world's first, coming online by 2028. ESG Today
Tokamak Energy will soon be unveiling its next device, which will be the world's first high field spherical tokamak to demonstrate the full potential of high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets, due to be commissioned in the mid-2020s. Yahoo
Questions
Can?
How can nuclear fusion help the environment? Happiful Magazine
How can nuclear fusion be controlled and harnessed for society's energy, security and technology needs? Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Can fusion be a source of grid energy? MR Online
How?
How do we build a nuclear fusion reactor that produces net energy? Bessemer Venture Partners
How useful will nuclear fusion be? New Books in Economics
How close are we to developing commercial fusion reactors? Forbes
Who?
How TSMC Builds a $19 Billion Fab >> The World's Largest Fusion Reactor Now Has the World's Most Powerful Magnet >> Who Will Build Consumers a Debt Dashboard? Futureseek Link Digest
What?
What do a 14 year old in the south of France, a robot competition, and a scientist at a pioneering nuclear fusion experiment have in common? ITER
What are some of the most promising approaches to achieving sustainable fusion power, and when might they become a viable source of energy? Medium
What steps are needed for developing a roadmap for the future commercialisation of fusion power in Europe and beyond? EurActiv
When?
When will nuclear fusion become a viable source of energy? Euronews.com
Will?
Does that mean Helion will deliver nuclear fusion power to Microsoft in five years? Forbes
Given the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's decision to give fusion a different pathway than fission, will improvements to the fusion regulatory landscape potentially unlock more investment? TechCrunch
Quantum Supremacy by Michio Kaku Will a new generation of computers designed to harness the power of subatomic particles be able to cure cancer, unlock the secrets of fusion power and stop ageing? The Guardian
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