Fusion

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

24 March 2023
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
The world's first commercial nuclear fusion reactor will be up and running by 2040, the UK government has pledged. Euronews.com
The ST-HTS aims to be the world's first spherical tokamak to demonstrate the full potential of high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets, and is due to be commissioned in the mid-2020s. The Engineer
The ST-HTS will be the world's first spherical tokamak to use high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets and is due to be commissioned in the mid-2020s. Tokamak Energy
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • With the FRC, TAE is advancing a modular and easy-to-maintain design that will have a compact footprint with the potential to take advantage of a more efficient magnetic confinement methodology, which will get up to 100 x more power out, as compared to tokamaks. Yahoo Finance
  • Tokamak Energy's new Demo4 facility - with a magnetic field strength of over 18 Tesla - will consist of 44 individual magnetic coils manufactured using 38 km of HTS tape, which requires five times less cooling power than traditional superconducting materials. The Engineer
  • Fusion energy technology will be a breakthrough technology for affordable, stable, clean energy. PR Newswire
Weaknesses
  • The most promising locations for fusion energy in the U.S. would be in the northeastern region, where local solar and wind opportunities are more limited than in other areas. Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment
  • Japan has said regulators have deemed it safe to release waste water, which will be filtered to remove most isotopes although it will still contain traces of tritium, an isotope of hydrogen hard to separate from water. Reuters
  • As fusion companies seek to realize their plans, there is the potential for a tritium shortage, particularly once ITER comes online in the 2030s. The Globe and Mail
Opportunities
  • Xcel Energy said it has recovered about 25% of the tritium released and will continue recovery over the course of the year. The Telegraph
  • A new five-year partnership between the UK and US will test materials that could be used in future nuclear fusion power plants. Imeche
  • The FIA is pleased that the Biden Administration has recognized the breakthrough potential of fusion energy, and would fund fusion research at $1.01 Billion in 2024. Fusion Industry Assn
Threats
  • A health risk would only occur if people consumed fairly high amounts of tritium. The Washington Post
  • Given India's three decades of experience in fusion and plasma physics, it is unlikely that an adversary would want to risk checking out its thermonuclear weapons. The Arms Control Association
  • Harnessing nuclear fusion could provide the planet with limitless clean energy, and would be a significant step in fighting climate change. CIFAR
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
fusion, clean, fuel, built, carbon-free, commercial
Emerging
fusion, EV, charger, commercial, clean, cost
Maturing
fusion, commercial, clean, carbon, company, built
Declining
national, coal, fusion, isotope, plant, reactor
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
The world's first commercial nuclear fusion reactor will be up and running by 2040, the UK government has pledged. Euronews.com
The ST-HTS, which will be the world's first spherical tokamak to demonstrate the full potential of high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets, is due to be commissioned in the mid-2020s. Tokamak Energy
PEST
Political
  • Without reliance on nuclear fission or, perhaps, in the future, nuclear fusion, the transition from fossil fuels may never take place at the global level, though it might happen in a few small countries. Tablet Magazine
  • If nuclear fusion becomes commercialized then it will mark the end of the monopoly of oil and gas in world politics. Global Village Space
  • Another immediate consequence of the recent fusion breakthrough will be greater support for efforts to ensure the reliability of American nuclear weapons without testing. The Spectator
Economic
  • Xcel Energy said it has recovered about 25% of the tritium released and will continue recovery over the course of the year. The Telegraph
  • A new five-year partnership between the UK and US will test materials that could be used in future nuclear fusion power plants. Imeche
  • The most promising locations for fusion energy in the U.S. would be in the northeastern region, where local solar and wind opportunities are more limited than in other areas. Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment
Social
  • The world of experimental tokamaks is currently preparing for ITER, a record-capacity test reactor that's been underway since the 1980s and will finally finish construction in southern France this decade. Popular Science
  • ITER, which is under construction, is going to be the world's largest tokamak nuclear fusion reactor. Peoples Dispatch
  • On a grand, long-term scale, fusion energy could eliminate humanity's emissions, allowing for a cleaner, greener, healthier planet - not to mention, elevated living for all of humanity. Forbes
Technological
  • Another $4 billion would go towards game-changing technologies that could help lower greenhouse-gas emissions in areas such as buildings, aviation, manufacturing and fusion energy. Nature Medicine
  • Fusion energy could come closer to commercial reality thanks to 18 projects awarded funding by the UK Atomic Energy Authority. / UK Imeche
  • In the future, new superconductor technologies could also create breakthroughs in wind power generation, fusion energy, electric and hydrogen-powered transport, and aerospace applications helping the world achieve net-zero. Glasgow City of Science and Innovation
Financial Impact
Globally, EVs are projected to make up to 90% of new car sales by 2050, nuclear fusion is reaching new milestones and next-generation nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors (SMRs), are changing the outlook on what is possible. Institute Global
Deploying Tritium DC fast chargers is part of OK's plans to support the expansion of Denmark's public charging infrastructure, in line with the Danish government's goal of reaching at least 775,000 electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles on the roads by 2030. The Driven
Fusion energy is one of five key approaches to halve carbon emissions by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2050. / USA CNet
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
STEP is attempting to be the world's first commercial fusion power station, aiming to produce a concept design by 2024, leading to a prototype plant in the UK, targeting completion by 2040. Nei Magazine
The UK hopes to deliver the world's first prototype fusion power plant by 2040. GOV.UK
ITER scientists are in a race against organizations worldwide, including the MIT and Commonwealth Fusion Systems team who have stated that they may have their first operational fusion power plant, called ARC, online in the early 2030s. Interesting Engineering
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
With two sites - one in Delft, The Netherlands, and one is Zurich, Switzerland, - Cradle is straddling the world of biology and artificial intelligence, a powerful fusion of technologies that threatens to disrupt the way scientists design proteins. Forbes
We are likely to see a new generation of nuclear power stations by 2060-2070 based on nuclear fusion, which is a radically different technology from splitting the atom (fission) and involves fusing two different atoms together to release energy, with far less radioactive waste. Global Change
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
NT-Tao is pioneering a new approach to fusion, combining the latest in advanced technologies that will provide the world with access to a compact and scalable fusion solution for all energy needs. PR Newswire
Tritium envisions a world in which fast EV charging is everywhere. Business News Australia
Now DeepMind is applying similar machine-learning techniques to the puzzle of nuclear fusion, hoping it helps yield an abundant source of cheap, zero-carbon energy that could wean the global economy off fossil fuels at a critical juncture in the climate crisis. Time
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Fusion-generated electricity will ultimately transform the world with abundant, clean energy. Tech Xplore
There are downsides - a helium-3 fusion reactor will need to operate at much higher temperatures than a tritium reactor, for example, and helium-3 is extremely rare and difficult to isolate on Earth. New Atlas
Fusion energy could be the ultimate power of the future - low carbon, safe and sustainable - and we want the UK to continue to lead the world as we work to unlock its potential and build back greener. GOV.UK
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Tokamak Energy will soon be unveiling its next device, which will be the world's first high field spherical tokamak to demonstrate the full potential of high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets, due to be commissioned in the mid-2020s. Yahoo
A pilot facility for magnetic confinement fusion could be operational within the next two years. / Italy UPI
Questions
Can?
Can fusion be a source of grid energy? MR Online
Can Nuclear Fusion Energy Be Commercialized Soon? Mining.com
Will the comprehensive public DEMO project be the first to produce fusion electricity as an actual power plant, or can eager private companies scoop government scientists? Innovation News Network
How?
How useful will nuclear fusion be? New Books in Economics
How close are we to developing commercial fusion reactors? Forbes
Inspire the next generation of physicists How do they make the odd-shaped magnets used in fusion experiments? Physics World
Who?
How TSMC Builds a $19 Billion Fab >> The World's Largest Fusion Reactor Now Has the World's Most Powerful Magnet >> Who Will Build Consumers a Debt Dashboard? Futureseek Link Digest
What?
What steps are needed for developing a roadmap for the future commercialisation of fusion power in Europe and beyond? EurActiv
What are the primary driving factors that push the Deuterium-Substituted Drugs market forward? InvestorsObserver
What are the main challenges facing the production and commercialisation of fusion energy in Europe? Innovation News Network
When?
When will nuclear fusion become a viable source of energy? Euronews.com
Will?
A recent breakthrough in the creation of nuclear fusion energy is good news for climate change, but what will human civilisation do to get through the next 20 or 30 years until it becomes a reality? The Sydney Morning Herald
What role will nuclear fusion play in future in the international energy mix? OpenMind
With the initial reports of scientists are able to achieve net gain positive from Nuclear Fusion reactor, is the initial thought of 50 years from now we will have nuclear fusion power now be over? Reddit
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