A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

26 October 2021
This set of automatically curated slides provides an instant overview about possible futures to help inform present day strategy, and for you to act on opportunities and risks and mitigate threats in a timely manner. Learn more.

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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
The UK hopes to deliver the world's first prototype fusion power plant by 2040. GOV.UK
The U.K. hopes to deliver the world's first prototype fusion power plant, STEP (Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production), by 2040. Forbes
The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, the world's largest experimental fusion facility in which India is a scientific partner, will start generating a new, clean, safe and unlimited light by 2025. Resilience
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
An external environmental method of analysis and the company's standing in it
World's first commercial fusion reactor could be ready by 2027. Futureseek Link Digest
The United Kingdom will be the first country in the world to elaborate on how to legislate the deployment of fusion energy. Eminetra.co.uk
STEP and future power plants will breed their own tritium when operational, but the initial tritium fuel to start the first fusion power plants will be sourced from the available worldwide supplies, including from CANDU reactors in Canada. UK Government

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

fusion, clean, fuel, Mars, UAV, Venus
fusion, EV, bed, R&D, SUV, astronomy
fusion, clean, commercial, carbon-free, consume, country
national, coal, fusion
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
SPARC will very likely achieve a burning plasma for the first time on earth, meaning the fusion process will be dominantly self-heating. NextBigFuture.com
Commonwealth's new magnet, which will be one of the world's most powerful, will be a crucial component in a compact nuclear fusion reactor known as a Tokamak, a design that uses magnetic forces to compress plasma until it is hotter than the sun. The New York Times
A framework of macro-environmental factors used in strategic management
Helion says its fusion power plant will provide flexible, scalable, baseload power that is affordable, providing the world a new path to full decarbonisation of electricity generation. World Nuclear News
The dream of power generation through nuclear fusion dates back decades, and has become a much-anticipated means to mitigate climate change and meet the world's energy demands. Vice
We are likely to see a new generation of nuclear power stations by 2060-2070 based on nuclear fusion, which is a radically different technology from splitting the atom (fission) and involves fusing two different atoms together to release energy, with far less radioactive waste. Global Change
Financial Impact
We will most likely not have one until at least 2035, which is when ITER, currently being built in France and set to become the world's largest fusion reactor, is projected to reach fusion power operation mode - which would still not be a power plant delivering electricity to a grid. Nature Physics
The world's largest ever magnetic fusion machine, Iter, is under construction in the south of France and many experts think it will have the scale needed to reach net energy gain. The Guardian
The biggest project in the world is ITER, a tokamak the size of 60 soccer fields that is under construction in France and is expected to operate in 2035. No 2 Nuclear Power
Connect the dots
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
A pioneering reactor in Britain is gearing up to start pivotal tests of a fuel mix that will eventually power ITER - the world's biggest nuclear-fusion experiment. Nature Medicine
When realized, fusion power will offer a new carbon free, safe, non-variable, source of energy that could disrupt the world's energy landscape. Forbes
The world will see it's first working thermonuclear fusion reactor by the year 2025. The Next Web
Changing proportion of published forecasts
U.S. officials have long warned about the Chinese Party-State' s practice of military-civil fusion of science and research activities, intended to either develop or acquire technologies explicitly for bolstering its military power. theglobaldispatch
The Tritium RTM quick chargers are anticipated to be deployed through the subsequent two years at 158 completely different locations, with two chargers obtainable at every web site. / Australia Top Techie News
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Oxford, UK: Fusion energy could be the most cost-effective solution for clean baseload power, four times cheaper than nuclear, complementing the need to continue rolling out renewable energy technologies as fast as possible to achieve a zero carbon global energy system by 2050. First Light Fusion Ltd
The UK is a global center for the development of fusion, a new source of limitless clean, carbon-free, safe and secure energy that will be essential for deep decarbonization well before 2050. Thorium Baby
The UK is a global centre for the development of fusion, a new source of limitless clean, carbon free, safe and secure energy that will be essential for deep decarbonisation well before 2050. www.tokamakenergy.co.uk
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Fusion energy could be the ultimate power of the future - low carbon, safe and sustainable - and we want the UK to continue to lead the world as we work to unlock its potential and build back greener. GOV.UK
Recognizing opportunity in the emerging EV sector, Tritium applied its experience in power electronics for extreme climates to create DC fast charging technology tested for, and installed in, some of the world's harshest conditions. PR Newswire
A tokamak, like the huge one that will reach 200 million Celsius in China next year, is a nuclear fusion plasma reactor where extremely hot, charged plasma spins and generates virtually limitless energy. Popular Mechanics
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
During the next decade, fusion researchers around the world will likely have their hands full completing and running ITER, the international fusion reactor under construction in southern France. Science | AAAS
UKAEA is working with international partners to prepare the world's first reactor-scale fusion experiment, ITER, scheduled to start up in France in 2025: Over €500 million of deals on ITER have already gone to British firms and a similar amount is expected in the coming years. Department for Culture Media & Sport
Can fusion energy be in time to make a difference to climate change? Ars Technica
How can the miniaturization of nuclear fusion be best exploited? Williams Foundation
How TSMC Builds a $19 Billion Fab >> The World's Largest Fusion Reactor Now Has the World's Most Powerful Magnet >> Who Will Build Consumers a Debt Dashboard? Futureseek Link Digest
Even if things go well, getting real fusion power plants online before 2050 would be a triumph, raising an awkward question: what if fusion comes too late? Guardian
What advantage does fusion energy offer over fission? Durham University
Will Singapore one day be powered by fusion energy? A*STAR Research
Will human-controlled nuclear fusion be a reality in less than a decade? newsotr.com
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