Longevity

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

25 September 2023
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
There are at least 10 global reinsurers with strong credit ratings willing and able to underwrite longevity risk for UK pension schemes. Actuarial Post
Population aging means a greater number of people inhabiting the planet, which some believe is exacerbating climate change, an emerging threat to both lifespan and healthspan in the 21st century. Advanced Science News
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Tuesday unveiled a package of wide-ranging measures to reverse a dwindling birthrate, saying the problem needed to be tackled as an aging population threatens the world's third-largest economy. Japan Today
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • After 40 years, the Supreme Court reversed its abortion decision, and we are not going to stop until Mexico guarantees the right to life from the moment of conception. AP News
  • Extensive, flexible funding for all efforts that preserve the pluralistic nature of Afghan life will help Afghan human rights defenders continue documenting abuses and protecting targeted groups, despite Taliban crackdowns. Foreign Policy
  • Innovative, ethical applications of AI, machine learning, and advanced data science have the promise to unlock significant opportunities to help people afford a better life. GitLab Foundation
Weaknesses
  • Failure to reduce emissions increases the atmospheric stock of greenhouse gases in ways that exacerbate the intensity and longevity of the dangers to the world's climate, ecosystems, and societies. Council on Foreign Relations
  • Not only could geopolitical tensions drive strict requirements that limit tax credit eligibility, but broader uncertainty in U.S. politics could raise questions about the longevity of the IRA. The Diplomat
  • A reconciliation deal that neglects victims' needs and public opinion may lack the longevity needed to outlive changes in administrations, and more importantly, has the potential to reignite a deterioration of Seoul-Tokyo relations. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Opportunities
  • Longevity has implications for individuals as well as governments, but the opportunities presented by people living longer in Jamaica and globally can help with national development and economic growth. Jamaica Observer
  • Without fully taking climate change into account as a systemic risk, progress already achieved in the Asia-Pacific region to improve health in old age might be reversed. London School of Economics
  • The EMA and the FDA have high concordance in decisions on marketing approvals, but the arrival of gerotherapeutic drugs will challenge both agencies to define the terms of marketing approval in the context of Geroscience. Nature
Threats
  • The NSW government will engage with the owner of Australia's biggest coal-fired power station, Eraring, for a temporary extension of its operating life, prioritising short-term energy security over emissions reductions. The Guardian
  • Other risk factors for CRC such as obesity, diet, lifestyle, and geography can influence the composition of the gut microbiome. BioMed Central
  • The use of puberty blockers has been curtailed, which is just as well since, despite claims they are 'life-saving' and reversible, a study into their use in the NHS concluded they could disrupt the long-term brain development of youngsters. Daily Mail
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
bacteria, reality, antimicrobial resistance, artificial intelligence, decommission, life
Emerging
ageing, anti-aging, longevity, artificial intelligence, battery, application
Maturing
longevity, ageing, anti-aging, adult, care, country
Declining
ageing, longevity, children, cost, economy, growth
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
There are at least 10 global reinsurers with strong credit ratings willing and able to underwrite longevity risk for UK pension schemes. Actuarial Post
There remains uncertainty around the scale, speed and longevity of China's bounceback from zero-covid restrictions which could have a significant impact on the global outlook. Megatrends
PEST
Political
  • Longevity has implications for individuals as well as governments, but the opportunities presented by people living longer in Jamaica and globally can help with national development and economic growth. Jamaica Observer
  • The EMA and the FDA have high concordance in decisions on marketing approvals, but the arrival of gerotherapeutic drugs will challenge both agencies to define the terms of marketing approval in the context of Geroscience. Nature
  • Extensive, flexible funding for all efforts that preserve the pluralistic nature of Afghan life will help Afghan human rights defenders continue documenting abuses and protecting targeted groups, despite Taliban crackdowns. Foreign Policy
Economic
  • Failure to reduce emissions increases the atmospheric stock of greenhouse gases in ways that exacerbate the intensity and longevity of the dangers to the world's climate, ecosystems, and societies. Council on Foreign Relations
  • Even with all the open research questions, the longevity startup ecosystem is expected to soar to high heavens in the next few years. proto.life
  • Given that ~6% of global CO2 emissions result from passenger transport, disruptive LIBs would deliver transformative advances in charging capacity, recharge times and longevity without compromising safety, consequently supporting increased EV uptake and a clean energy transition. IBioIC
Social
  • NASA a draft request for a proposal to define a deorbit plan for the ISS, which after multiple extensions of its life is now expected to be decommissioned by 2031. SpaceRef
  • Cancer treatment is going to be the biggest thing in microbiome research in the next few years. Financial Times
  • Without fully taking climate change into account as a systemic risk, progress already achieved in the Asia-Pacific region to improve health in old age might be reversed. London School of Economics
Technological
  • The D-5s undergoes a refurbishment and life extension program and will remain in service until about 2040 when they are to be replaced by a new class of SLBM. Medium
  • The University of Texas at Austin will perform membrane system bench - and pilot-scale engineering and testing, GivePower will lead a reverse-osmosis pilot and membrane pilot system integration, and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory will conduct life-cycle analyses. NREL
  • Techno-utopians [are] attempting to make immortality a reality here and now, [but] a heaven on Earth will most likely make hell on Earth. proto.life
Financial Impact
The longevity economy will reach $33 trillion by 2026. EL PAIS English
The Global Longevity Economy, which refers to the economic impact of individuals aged 50 and over, is projected to reach $118 trillion by 2050. the weekly ledger
An emerging industry in the MENA region, longevity is estimated to be worth $26.5 trillion in 2022 and is expected to reach $33 trillion in 2026 globally. Dubai Chronicle
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Clinical centers around the world will likely start considering clinical trials where they first eradicate the disrupted gut microbiome in anorexic cases with antibiotics, and then follow with weekly fecal microbiome transplants for months. The Scientist Magazine
The veterinary industry can anticipate exciting new breakthroughs in the frontier of pet microbiome health thanks to a new partnership between Nestle Purina PetCare Global Research and the Gastrointestinal Laboratory at Texas A&M University's School of Veterinary Medicine & Biomedical Sciences. VMBS News
Imagine a world in which radical life-extension technologies enable totalitarian states to keep people alive in torture chambers for indefinitely long periods of time - perhaps hundreds or thousands of years. Genetic Literacy Project
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Nations agreed on a road map to reverse decades of environmental destruction threatening species and the land and ocean ecosystems that provide Earth's life support. South China Morning Post
Nations agreed on a roadmap to reverse decades of environmental destruction threatening species and the land and ocean ecosystems that provide Earth's life support. ScienceAlert
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
As highlighted by the US National Academy of Medicine's Global Roadmap for Healthy Longevity, multiple systems within society will need to be activated, transformed and coordinated to address all aspects of life. National University of Singapore
Founded by David Kekich, a well-known figure among researchers and activists who believe lifespan can be greatly expanded, MLF says its aim is to reverse the human aging process by 2033. / Mexico Wired
With more of the world's population now vaccinated, it's possible that in the coming year, some of the life-expectancy losses in countries could begin to reverse. Time
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Even if no formal physiological limit exists, reaching the frontiers of survival is no mean feat, and further gains in longevity might ultimately require remarkable advances in medical science, even if the ranks of the world's centenarians continue to swell. Nature Medicine
The longevity economy is not some far out trend, but rather an economic reality that will only intensify in the coming years. Advocate for a New Story of Our Age
There is no regulation of IV therapy by the Therapeutic Goods Act in Australia, so ultimately you could be paying to receive sugar water, rather than the advertised formulas for anti-ageing. The Conversation
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The first approved therapy from geroscience will come within five years. NEO.LIFE
Businesses need to recognise the overarching impact of ageing and rising longevity and embrace the opportunities it will bring in the coming years. Euromonitor
Questions
Can?
How can we make the anti-aging effects of sleep on the brain stronger? NFX
Can the use the metabolic capabilities of different bacteria to understand how the leaf microbiome takes shape? ScienceDaily
Can Bitcoin's Longevity Positively Shape the Future of Dogetti and Cardano? Analytics Insight
How?
In essence, how does humanity thrive in the age of ethical machines? Pew Research Center: Internet, Science & Tech
How does humanity thrive in the age of ethical machines? Pew Research Center: Internet, Science & Tech
How can we engineer a microbiome that can help us live healthy, long lives? Interesting Engineering
Who?
In a world of make-believe, where one lives forever as a machine, who will control the machinery of life? Coherent Publishing
Who are the most prominent players in the global Anti-aging Drugs market? Trends
What?
What happens when the individual existentialist, bound ethically to a thinking life, meets the end of thought, the end of life? New Statesman
What if our bodies are broken due to the disrupted microbiome and the unnatural amounts of poison all around us? Coherent Publishing
What kind of data is required to make a human mind live forever as an AI? Artificial Intelligence Blog
When?
One factor making Boston a potential hotbed when it comes to the explosion of the longevity economy? YOUAREUNLTD
Will?
Will increased longevity encourage people to continue working after reaching the traditional retirement age? Next Avenue
Quantum Supremacy by Michio Kaku Will a new generation of computers designed to harness the power of subatomic particles be able to cure cancer, unlock the secrets of fusion power and stop ageing? The Guardian
How much more lop-sided will our society become if radical life extension moves into the mainstream? America Magazine
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