A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

21 June 2024
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Israeli biotech startup Gynica announces it has launched a clinical trial for a treatment for endometriosis, raising hopes for a cure for the disease, which afflicts one in 10 women and girls of reproductive age around the world. The Times of Israel
Grip strength is globally regarded as a reliable indicator of overall health with its connection to muscle strength, immune health, chronic disease risk and longevity. Zawya
Predicting evolutionary dynamics in microbial communities is critical for everything from understanding how pathogens in the human microbiome will respond to antibiotic treatment to understanding how microbial contributions to global nutrient cycles will be impacted by climate change. Nature
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • Bakuchiol and niacinamide are a great anti-aging combo, as niacinamide is anti-inflammatory and will help with tolerance, and has anti-pigment effects, helping to even out skin tone while bakuchiol increases firmness. InStyle
  • Generative artificial intelligence is rapidly advancing and soon will be ubiquitous in everyday life, making us more productive and helping to solve complex problems while simultaneously creating new legal and ethical issues. Tech Xplore
  • Longevity is not only a field of research but also an investment opportunity: Alongside AI, it represents the largest and most potentially lucrative investment opportunity of the 21st century. finews.com
  • A genetic variant carried by 3-4 percent of self-identified Black Americans increases the risk for heart failure and death, contributing to a significant decrease in longevity at the population level. News-Medical
  • A genetic variant, present in 3-4% of self-identified Black individuals in the U.S., increases the risk for both heart failure and death and contributes to significant decreases in longevity at the population level. News-Medical
  • With the growing human population and concerns for meeting the global food crisis in the coming decades, invasive plants and their microbiomes might turn out to be useful for enhancing crop yields. ScienceDaily
  • The global ag-food system has the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with middle-income countries in particular needing to reverse their collective role as the world's largest emitters of GHGs related to ag-food. DairyReporter.com
  • According to GWS, longevity is the new industry pillar, with the longevity clinic the fastest-growing business genre - and the obsession with longevity and healthspan will continue to impact everything - from travel to tech to fitness - in 2024. Cosmetic Executive Women
  • Artificial intelligence will enable humanity to achieve biological immortality by 2030. Young By Choice
  • The UK retail industry is currently at risk of missing out on a 'longevity dividend' valued at over half a trillion pounds by 2040 because not enough is being done to make shopping - both online and offline - attractive to us at every stage of our long lives. ILCUK
  • An optronics upgrade for the Collins-class submarines, announced by the former Coalition government, will not proceed following advice that it would have added complexity and risk to the life-of-type extension program. CONTACT magazine
  • Recent global events have highlighted the critical need for biomanufacturing readiness, including pandemics and national threats where traditional approaches requiring extensive at-the-ready manpower may inhibit the rapid production of life-saving drugs. Yahoo Finance

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

bacteria, life, reality, PC, algorithm, antimicrobial resistance
ageing, anti-aging, artificial intelligence, battery, longevity, cancer
longevity, ageing, anti-aging, adult, care, country
ageing, longevity, life expectancy, children, cost, economy
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
There are at least 10 global reinsurers with strong credit ratings willing and able to underwrite longevity risk for UK pension schemes. Actuarial Post
Population aging means a greater number of people inhabiting the planet, which some believe is exacerbating climate change, an emerging threat to both lifespan and healthspan in the 21st century. Advanced Science News
  • The Life of Type Extension program is a result of studies to reduce naval capability gaps before Canberra's new attack submarines, the Virginia-class nuclear-powered fleet, arrive in the 2030s. The Defense Post
  • For some magical reason, the US would get Russia to trade its brand-new nuclear missiles for ageing and becoming obsolete US Minuteman III missiles, knowing that at best the US is only going to do a short mini-life extension for Minuteman. hudson
  • Although climate will be a bipartisan issue at the UK and US elections, public sector decisions will not impact private sector climate progress, as companies buy into the evidence that building sustainable businesses is essential for a competitive edge and, ultimately, longevity. EU-Startups
  • Think-tank the International Longevity Centre found the state pension age, which is currently 66 but will rise to 67 from 2027, might need to hit at least 70 by as early a 2040 to maintain the current dependency ratio of retirees drawing their state pension to tax-paying workers. Personnel Today
  • At the end of January, Ontario Power Generation formally announced that it will proceed with life extension of the Pickering site units 5 through 8. Yahoo Finance
  • Due to the longevity of trains, investing in BEV trains, rather than continuing to buy diesel trains in the coming years could avoid the prolonging of reaching zero-emission in the rail sector and make the future zero-emission goals of companies more achievable. NetNewsLedger
  • The Geron drug, imetelstat, is approved to treat adults with low- to intermediate-risk myelodysplastic syndromes. MedCity News
  • The benefits of acquiring Egyptian citizenship through investment are extensive and varied, offering not just a passport to enhanced personal and business mobility but also a life enriched by diverse cultures and opportunities. Imperial Citizenship
  • The longevity industry will clearly become one of the world's largest industries, growing to become the majority of all medicine, given that every older individual is a potential customer. Fight Aging!
  • A machine-learning-based approach predicts antimicrobial peptides within the global microbiome using a vast dataset of 63,410 metagenomes and 87,920 prokaryotic genomes. AMR Insights
  • APS-R may be used to refuel Astroscale's Life Extension In-Orbit spacecraft, which will dock with and extend the life of satellites in GEO. SpaceNews
  • Meta Quest 2 users are content with their devices, but the Quest 3 library growing in 2024 could spark upgrades for longevity. ScreenRant
Financial Impact
The longevity economy will reach $33 trillion by 2026. EL PAIS English
The Global Longevity Economy, which refers to the economic impact of individuals aged 50 and over, is projected to reach $118 trillion by 2050. the weekly ledger
WTW expects pension risk transfer volumes to reach £80bn, with insurers primed to buyout £60bn in bulk annuity transactions and £20bn in longevity swaps in 2024. IPE
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Israeli biotech startup Gynica announces it has launched a clinical trial for a treatment for endometriosis, raising hopes for a cure for the disease, which afflicts one in 10 women and girls of reproductive age around the world. The Times of Israel
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Tuesday unveiled a package of wide-ranging measures to reverse a dwindling birthrate, saying the problem needed to be tackled as an aging population threatens the world's third-largest economy. Japan Today
There remains uncertainty around the scale, speed and longevity of China's bounceback from zero-covid restrictions which could have a significant impact on the global outlook. Megatrends
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Nations agreed on a road map to reverse decades of environmental destruction threatening species and the land and ocean ecosystems that provide Earth's life support. South China Morning Post
Nations agreed on a roadmap to reverse decades of environmental destruction threatening species and the land and ocean ecosystems that provide Earth's life support. ScienceAlert
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Imagine a world in which radical life-extension technologies enable totalitarian states to keep people alive in torture chambers for indefinitely long periods of time - perhaps hundreds or thousands of years. Genetic Literacy Project
As highlighted by the US National Academy of Medicine's Global Roadmap for Healthy Longevity, multiple systems within society will need to be activated, transformed and coordinated to address all aspects of life. National University of Singapore
The Global Complementary and Alternative Medicine for Anti-Aging and Longevity Industry, estimated at $44.6 billion in 2021, is expected to increase at a CAGR of 24.4% from 2022 to 2032. FMIBlog
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
The longevity economy is not some far out trend, but rather an economic reality that will only intensify in the coming years. Advocate for a New Story of Our Age
By integrating Neurable's BCI technology into precision health and longevity solutions, clinics will be equipped with state-of-the-art capabilities to monitor and improve brain health, ultimately contributing to the advancement of human performance and longevity. Mobihealthnews
More rigorous validation of deaths at extreme ages in Australia, coupled with linked births and deaths data, and more detailed population statistics, could enhance the precision of information on Australian longevity. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The first approved therapy from geroscience will come within five years. NEO.LIFE
Anti-aging with artificial intelligence will gain prominence in the next five years. Tech Xplore
What measures can be taken to ensure the longevity of digital memorials? elblog.pl
How can industry best tap into the 'healthy longevity' trend? NutraIngredients-USA.com
Can AI usher in an age of ethical pornography? The Guardian
How are consumers responding to the health-span beauty trend? cosmeticsdesign.com
How tight is the association between different species of AM fungi and the microbial taxa within the associated hyphosphere microbiome? SpringerLink
How does the shift to greener solutions affect the textile industry's longevity? eCommerce Fastlane
The longevity movement is full of contradictory arguments But who really wants to live forever anyway? MIT Technology Review
In a world of make-believe, where one lives forever as a machine, who will control the machinery of life? Coherent Publishing
Who are the most prominent players in the global Anti-aging Drugs market? Trends
If Perez is correct and we are on the verge of a Golden Age of extensive diffusion of ICT technologies through all segments and geographies what should countries be doing? The Emerging Markets Investor
What are some of the biggest threats to a healthy microbiome? Life Extension Magazine
What is the impact of Covid-19 on the Complementary and Alternative Medicine for Anti Ageing & Longetivity industry? FMIBlog
What happens when the individual existentialist, bound ethically to a thinking life, meets the end of thought, the end of life? New Statesman
One factor making Boston a potential hotbed when it comes to the explosion of the longevity economy? YOUAREUNLTD
What are key trends and opportunities that will prevail the revenue growth of Complementary and Alternative Medicine for Anti Ageing & Longetivity market players? FMIBlog
What are ongoing trends that will shape market growth curve for global Complementary and Alternative Medicine for Anti Ageing & Longetivity industry? FMIBlog
Will we use AI to fine tune the pursuit of margin by our health systems, payers and technology companies or will we use it to optimize the health and longevity of the people we care for? U.S. Food and Drug Administration
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