Covid

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

13 November 2024
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Electricity prices were forecast to stay elevated until the end of the decade, remaining at least 60% higher than they were in 2021 before the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. iNews
Global suppliers depend on China's active fossil fuel purchases and were struck - especially in the oil sector - by Beijing's slower-than-anticipated economic revival, following the removal of spartan Covid-19 restrictions since the start of the year. CNBC
In the past year, inflation has skyrocketed worldwide due to supply-chain disruptions caused by covid-19 and the Ukraine war. Quartz
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • Global disruptions such as COVID-19 highlighted the importance of resilient and flexible MNF systems to quickly recover from disruptions and adapt to changing customer demands. SpringerLink
  • Over the past eight years, Syngenta and Maersk have successfully navigated major disruptions thanks to significantly increased resilience, including the Covid pandemic and the Red Sea crisis and identified opportunities for reducing GHG emissions from Syngenta's supply chain. Yahoo Finance
  • Diversification efforts in line with Vision 2030 will the non-oil economy will remain resilient in 2024, growing above the 5-year pre-Covid - 19 trend of 2.3%. Fitch Solutions
Weaknesses
  • As Covid causes unexpected closures on a global level, it can be difficult for companies to predict how long it will take to receive products they have ordered.
  • While inflation surged during Biden's presidency - partly due to post-Covid supply chain disruptions and the Ukraine conflict - it has since decreased. Mint
  • The pre-pandemic global shortage of 6 million nurses has been exacerbated by COVID, and, factoring in the 4.7 million nurses expected to retire in the next few years, we can expect an estimated shortfall of 13 million nurses by 2030.
Opportunities
  • The United States Postal Service has temporarily suspended international mail acceptance for certain destinations due to impacts related to the COVID-19 pandemic and other unrelated service disruptions. Roast Magazine
  • Diversification of Suppliers: With supply chains under strain from Brexit, COVID-19, and global events, operators are increasingly adopting multi-supplier strategies to mitigate the risk of disruptions. Trucking
  • Ageing populations, unhealthy modern lifestyles, the overhangs of the covid pandemic, and the potential threat of other zoonotic diseases such as bird flu are overwhelming healthcare systems globally. MedCity News
Threats
  • Studies from Denmark and the United States have shown that compared to the Delta variant, the Omicron variant reduces the risk of hospitalization for COVID-19 patients, particularly with shorter hospital stays and fewer ICU (Intensive Care Unit) admissions. Nature
  • Supply chain snarls have eased significantly since they were caused by disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. Fortune
  • As warned by Global Tuberculosis Network Group, COVID-19 has fuelled TB infections and mortality.
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
people, augmented reality, infection, COVID-19, health, airline
Emerging
country, pandemic, vaccine, health, people, company
Maturing
country, demand, crisis, economy, death, GDP
Declining
economy, demand, GDP, crisis, country, growth
Sentiment
Past Year: More Negative
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Electricity prices were forecast to stay elevated until the end of the decade, remaining at least 60% higher than they were in 2021 before the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. iNews
Despite the global disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, space organisations presented a robust picture, generating £17.5 billion in 2021, compared to £16.5 billion the previous year. GOV.UK
PEST
Political
  • Globally, just under a third of Gen Zs and millennials believe the economic situation in their countries will improve over 2025 - the highest percentage since the 2020 Millennial Survey, fielded just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Deloitte Singapore
  • The COVID-19 pandemic, followed by Russia's war against Ukraine, exposed the vulnerabilities of concentrated supply chains and an overreliance on bad-faith actors with divergent values systems. Policy Options
  • Vote-counting has been sped up in some areas including the crucial state of Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail than in the last election, which was during the Covid pandemic. BBC News
Economic
  • Transport sector has surpassed pre-COVID levels with revenue projected to grow by 36% YoY to $1.5 billion, driven by rebounding demand and pricing, while GMV is expected to increase by 18% to $9 billion. Temasek Corporate Website English
  • In 2024, China's ethanol production is forecast to increase by 17%, thanks to lower corn prices and a recovery in gasoline demand following the end of its Zero-COVID policy. F&L Asia
  • Rapid disinflation for goods prices has been key, as global demand shifted from goods to services in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and fewer supply disruptions occurred. IMF eLibrary
Social
  • As more animals are reported to be infected with the COVID-19 virus, it becomes increasingly evident that adopting a One Health approach is crucial in addressing emerging disease threats that impact both humans and animals. PubMed Central (PMC)
  • Even though we have already achieved high-income status according to the World Bank, the average household income of Sarawak is still below the target set out in the Post Covid-19 Development Strategy 2030. Borneo Post Online
  • The very lengthy school closures that Chile imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic seem to be exacerbating inequality of opportunity. Atlantic Council
Technological
  • Alongside technological development, the landscape of educational systems has endured a period of upheaval and disruption of teaching due to the COVID-19 pandemic which in many countries worldwide caused varying levels of lockdown and necessitated shifts to remote forms of learning.
  • In countries that had seemed to successfully suppress COVID-19, such as Australia and Hong Kong, new spikes are once again confining employees to their homes, putting the tentative economic recovery at risk - and bringing new cybersecurity challenges. crowdstrike.com
  • Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand will be launching a Regional Aviation Safety Data and Information Sharing Initiative to enhance aviation safety as air travel achieves full recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Key Publishing Ltd
Financial Impact
The global logistics industry rebounded from COVID-19 in 2022, reaching $10.41 trillion and projected to top $14.08 trillion by 2028. Cash Flow Inventory
Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the real estate industry was set to reach a value of one trillion U.S. dollars by 2030. / India Statista
The COVID-19 pandemic has fueled a rapid shift towards cloud adoption, with projections indicating that global spending on cloud services and related components will exceed $1.0 trillion in 2024, maintaining a CAGR of 15.7%. Yahoo Finance
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Just as vaccines were a game changer in the battle against COVID-19, the global plan calls for approving a new TB vaccine by 2025 and making it widely available to adults and adolescents in TB affected countries. Health Policy Watch
About 4% of global gross domestic product could be lost annually by 2050, surpassing the 3.3% contraction caused by COVID-19 in 2020. S&P Global Platts
After the 'involuntary under-tourism' that occurred during the Covid pandemic, the remainder of this decade will see a return to the problem of 'over-tourism' to the world's most popular destinations, unless measures are taken to consciously combat it. ROADBOOK
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 new variants threatens global prevention efforts and the impact of mass vaccination campaigns against the COVID-19 pandemic. PubMed Central (PMC)
Unfavorable U.S. or global economic conditions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, political instability, natural disasters, or otherwise, could adversely affect Adagio's ability to raise capital and its business, results of operations and financial condition. MarketScreener
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The Islamic Republic of Iran exports 1.7m barrels of oil a day, and disruption via an attack would hinder global efforts to return to a post-COVID normal. Capital's Substack
The virus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), at the origin of a worldwide pandemic, might have several consequences on patients with other emergency needs. PubMed Central (PMC)
The virulent and unpredictable nature of COVID-19 combined with a change in reimbursement mechanisms both forced and enabled the rapid adoption of telemedicine around the world. PubMed Central (PMC)
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
The global food system has been unable to deal with disruptions caused by unusual and extreme weather conditions, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. Mongabay Environmental News
COVID-19 further exposed the economic vulnerabilities of Africa as 155 million have been pushed into extreme poverty globally. AgroNigeria
While some challenges for the feed sector are structural (such as the EU's deficit in plant-based protein), others are a direct consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, global disruptions caused by weather extremes, and the war in Ukraine. European Parliament
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The biopharmaceutical landscape is forecast to change rapidly in the coming years, with biological therapeutics continuing their ascendance and healthcare systems recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. PharmaSource
Despite the short-term moderation of COVID-related shocks, the world still faces major stagflationary risks (lower growth and higher inflation), most of which are likely to become stronger over the next decade. Zawya
Questions
Can?
Can Tanzania Resume and Reimagine Agricultural Trade With China in a Post-COVID-19 World? Development Reimagined
Can cognitive rehabilitation improve the cognitive and functional outcomes of people presenting with cognitive impairment as part of post-COVID syndrome? BioMed Central
How can firms turn their COVID-19 pandemic-driven digitalization efforts into sustainable digital transformation? PubMed Central (PMC)
How?
How is the COVID-19 pandemic influencing the growth of contactless technologies, including ToF sensors? Mobility Foresights
Looking ahead, how will the world of work be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic? ArchitectureAU
How can policymakers and health institutions be able to bring people back to their normal lives in the age of the dissemination of COVID-19? PubMed Central (PMC)
Who?
Who will be the 'Winners and Losers' in the Energy Transition post-COVID? Energy Transition Forum
As COVID-era "Zoomtowns" and the urban exodus fade into history, which city in every state is most popular for Americans who want to move now? moveBuddha
Who could have foreseen Covid, or Russia's invasion of Ukraine, for instance, or the impact of the rise of shareholder activism against fossil fuels? Stockhead
What?
What should companies and governments do to address challenges and opportunities in our post-COVID world? Energy Transition Forum
What are the reported effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the psychological status of emergency healthcare workers? Australasian Emergency Care
What will be the legacy of COVID-19 on the transport sector? BioMed Central
When?
When the hotel market bottoms out, how long will it take to get back to pre-COVID - 19 occupancy levels? Cushman & Wakefield
When issues such as conflict and COVID emerge, how can organizations effectively communicate with the right tone of voice around complex global topics? Internal Communications Europe
The trajectory of oil demand in a post-COVID world - when and how will the peak of oil demand materialise? cconnection
Will?
Will the economic impact of COVID-19 persist? Valdai Club
Will mpox become a global pandemic like covid-19? Futureseek Link Digest
Will the pre-COVID upgauging trend continue, and what are its implications for future aircraft selection? Leeham News and Analysis
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