Covid

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

22 November 2024
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Electricity prices were forecast to stay elevated until the end of the decade, remaining at least 60% higher than they were in 2021 before the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. iNews
Global suppliers depend on China's active fossil fuel purchases and were struck - especially in the oil sector - by Beijing's slower-than-anticipated economic revival, following the removal of spartan Covid-19 restrictions since the start of the year. CNBC
In the past year, inflation has skyrocketed worldwide due to supply-chain disruptions caused by covid-19 and the Ukraine war. Quartz
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, prompting industrials to reassess their operational resilience. NovaLink
  • Global disruptions such as COVID-19 highlighted the importance of resilient and flexible MNF systems to quickly recover from disruptions and adapt to changing customer demands. SpringerLink
  • Over the past eight years, Syngenta and Maersk have successfully navigated major disruptions thanks to significantly increased resilience, including the Covid pandemic and the Red Sea crisis and identified opportunities for reducing GHG emissions from Syngenta's supply chain. Yahoo Finance
Weaknesses
  • The SNPL, along with other industry stakeholders, argues that the tax hike, imposed without consultation or impact analysis, threatens thousands of jobs and could weaken France's aviation sector, which is already recovering from the COVID-19 crisis. Aviation24.be
  • The main risks include the potential for a harsher recession than expected and the continuation of Covid-related lockdowns in China that could lead to further weakness in demand and manufacturing.
  • As Covid causes unexpected closures on a global level, it can be difficult for companies to predict how long it will take to receive products they have ordered.
Opportunities
  • Starting at around $20 during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, to more than $100 in 2021 after economies started opening post-pandemic, Brent crude prices have been decreasing, and JP Morgan has indicated they expect prices to start stabilising in 2025. Offshore Technology
  • In the case of COVID-19 vaccines, a scoping review on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Africa highlights that public perception and acceptance were negatively impacted by a range of factors including fear of AEFIs, distrust of the pharmaceutical industry, as well as myths surrounding immunization. BMJ Global Health
  • While the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical challenges caused ripples in demand for some industrial metals such as zinc, nickel, and copper, increasing demand is expected to cause recovery over the next few years. AZoMining
Threats
  • The COVID-19 pandemic, combined with global conflicts like the war in Ukraine, caused major supply chain disruptions and higher prices - with grocery store prices in 2024 almost 25% higher than pre-pandemic prices. Time
  • In light of recent events, such as the migration crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, it is crucial to consider how to ensure economic stability and enhance the security of the transportation sector in the face of emerging threats. MDPI
  • Research focusing on post-Covid - 19 trends are essential to establish whether altered trajectories continue or 'course correct' with increasing distance from the seismic, global risk factor represented by Covid-19. Cambridge Core
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
people, augmented reality, infection, COVID-19, health, airline
Emerging
country, pandemic, vaccine, health, people, company
Maturing
country, demand, crisis, economy, death, GDP
Declining
economy, demand, GDP, crisis, country, growth
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Electricity prices were forecast to stay elevated until the end of the decade, remaining at least 60% higher than they were in 2021 before the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. iNews
Despite the global disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, space organisations presented a robust picture, generating £17.5 billion in 2021, compared to £16.5 billion the previous year. GOV.UK
PEST
Political
  • Globally, just under a third of Gen Zs and millennials believe the economic situation in their countries will improve over 2025 - the highest percentage since the 2020 Millennial Survey, fielded just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Deloitte Singapore
  • The COVID-19 pandemic, followed by Russia's war against Ukraine, exposed the vulnerabilities of concentrated supply chains and an overreliance on bad-faith actors with divergent values systems. Policy Options
  • Vote-counting has been sped up in some areas including the crucial state of Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail than in the last election, which was during the Covid pandemic. BBC News
Economic
  • COVID-19 substantially depleted the EU Solidarity fund, reducing the availability of funds for future climate hazards. OUP Academic
  • The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of health-related risks, highlighting how global health crises can disrupt economies, supply chains, and workforce dynamics on an unprecedented scale. Strategic Risk Global
  • Shift in Global Trade Dynamics: Global companies are increasingly seeking alternatives to China under the China Plus One strategy, spurred by the U.S.-China trade war and the disruptions caused by COVID-19. PWOnlyIAS
Social
  • Despite recommendations for flu and COVID-19 vaccinations for everyone aged 6 months and older, only 38% of US adults plan to get a flu vaccine, and just 26% plan to get the updated COVID-19 vaccine. AJMC
  • The Covid-19 supply chain disruptions have led the US to further diversify away from China. TheIndiaForum
  • The rate of infection in London was 1.76 times that of England and Wales as a whole, and bus drivers were more likely than others to be in the 45-64 age band, and to be of an ethnic minority both of which increase the risk of COVID-19 mortality. GOV.UK
Technological
  • Oil has been driven by the continued rebound in international aviation since the COVID pandemic, and are projected to increase by 0.9% in 2024. ABC News
  • Plus, by 2025, COVID-19-related economic uncertainty and increasing automation and digitization will cause 85 million jobs to be displaced worldwide and 97 million new ones to be created. BuildEmpire
  • Emissions from international aviation and shipping are expected to jump by 7.8% in 2024, as air travel continues to recover from a drop in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. ThePrint
Financial Impact
The global logistics industry rebounded from COVID-19 in 2022, reaching $10.41 trillion and projected to top $14.08 trillion by 2028. Cash Flow Inventory
Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the real estate industry was set to reach a value of one trillion U.S. dollars by 2030. / India Statista
The COVID-19 pandemic has fueled a rapid shift towards cloud adoption, with projections indicating that global spending on cloud services and related components will exceed $1.0 trillion in 2024, maintaining a CAGR of 15.7%. Yahoo Finance
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Just as vaccines were a game changer in the battle against COVID-19, the global plan calls for approving a new TB vaccine by 2025 and making it widely available to adults and adolescents in TB affected countries. Health Policy Watch
About 4% of global gross domestic product could be lost annually by 2050, surpassing the 3.3% contraction caused by COVID-19 in 2020. S&P Global Platts
After the 'involuntary under-tourism' that occurred during the Covid pandemic, the remainder of this decade will see a return to the problem of 'over-tourism' to the world's most popular destinations, unless measures are taken to consciously combat it. ROADBOOK
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 new variants threatens global prevention efforts and the impact of mass vaccination campaigns against the COVID-19 pandemic. PubMed Central (PMC)
Unfavorable U.S. or global economic conditions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, political instability, natural disasters, or otherwise, could adversely affect Adagio's ability to raise capital and its business, results of operations and financial condition. MarketScreener
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The Islamic Republic of Iran exports 1.7m barrels of oil a day, and disruption via an attack would hinder global efforts to return to a post-COVID normal. Capital's Substack
The virus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), at the origin of a worldwide pandemic, might have several consequences on patients with other emergency needs. PubMed Central (PMC)
The virulent and unpredictable nature of COVID-19 combined with a change in reimbursement mechanisms both forced and enabled the rapid adoption of telemedicine around the world. PubMed Central (PMC)
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
The global food system has been unable to deal with disruptions caused by unusual and extreme weather conditions, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. Mongabay Environmental News
COVID-19 further exposed the economic vulnerabilities of Africa as 155 million have been pushed into extreme poverty globally. AgroNigeria
While some challenges for the feed sector are structural (such as the EU's deficit in plant-based protein), others are a direct consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, global disruptions caused by weather extremes, and the war in Ukraine. European Parliament
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The biopharmaceutical landscape is forecast to change rapidly in the coming years, with biological therapeutics continuing their ascendance and healthcare systems recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. PharmaSource
Despite the short-term moderation of COVID-related shocks, the world still faces major stagflationary risks (lower growth and higher inflation), most of which are likely to become stronger over the next decade. Zawya
Questions
Can?
Can Tanzania Resume and Reimagine Agricultural Trade With China in a Post-COVID-19 World? Development Reimagined
Can cognitive rehabilitation improve the cognitive and functional outcomes of people presenting with cognitive impairment as part of post-COVID syndrome? BioMed Central
How can firms turn their COVID-19 pandemic-driven digitalization efforts into sustainable digital transformation? PubMed Central (PMC)
How?
How is the COVID-19 pandemic influencing the growth of contactless technologies, including ToF sensors? Mobility Foresights
Looking ahead, how will the world of work be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic? ArchitectureAU
How can policymakers and health institutions be able to bring people back to their normal lives in the age of the dissemination of COVID-19? PubMed Central (PMC)
Who?
Who will be the 'Winners and Losers' in the Energy Transition post-COVID? Energy Transition Forum
As COVID-era "Zoomtowns" and the urban exodus fade into history, which city in every state is most popular for Americans who want to move now? moveBuddha
Who could have foreseen Covid, or Russia's invasion of Ukraine, for instance, or the impact of the rise of shareholder activism against fossil fuels? Stockhead
What?
What should companies and governments do to address challenges and opportunities in our post-COVID world? Energy Transition Forum
What are the reported effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the psychological status of emergency healthcare workers? Australasian Emergency Care
What will be the legacy of COVID-19 on the transport sector? BioMed Central
When?
When the hotel market bottoms out, how long will it take to get back to pre-COVID - 19 occupancy levels? Cushman & Wakefield
When issues such as conflict and COVID emerge, how can organizations effectively communicate with the right tone of voice around complex global topics? Internal Communications Europe
The trajectory of oil demand in a post-COVID world - when and how will the peak of oil demand materialise? cconnection
Will?
Will the economic impact of COVID-19 persist? Valdai Club
Will mpox become a global pandemic like covid-19? Futureseek Link Digest
Will the pre-COVID upgauging trend continue, and what are its implications for future aircraft selection? Leeham News and Analysis
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