A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

1 December 2022
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Baby busts from the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to a staggering decline in fertility, the combined impact of which will be apparent in precisely 2026. Time
Shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine mean the world is unlikely to meet a longstanding goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030. Cyprus Mail
After declining 6% in 2020 due to lockdowns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, global CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion rebounded in 2021 and are on course to be less than 1% below 2019 levels in 2022 before surpassing them in 2023. JPT
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • CEPI is the world's leading funder of R&D for broadly protective coronavirus vaccines which could protect against future variants of COVID-19 as well as other coronaviruses with epidemic and pandemic potential. CEPI
  • CEPI is the world's leading funder of R&D for broadly protective coronavirus vaccines which could protect against future variants of COVID-19 as well as other coronaviruses with epidemic and pandemic potential.
  • CEPI is the world's leading funder of R&D for broadly protective coronavirus vaccines which could protect against future variants of COVID-19 as well as other coronaviruses with epidemic and pandemic potential. CEPI
  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine is causing significant global economic disruption, adding further stress to a global economy that continues to struggle with the legacies of the COVID-19 pandemic and the supply chain problems and inflation it has provoked. Deloitte Insights
  • The average annual cost of emerging zoonoses is more than $1 trillion worldwide, with periodic pandemics capable of inflicting severe damage (in the case of COVID-19, as much as $28 trillion in lost global growth through 2025). Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • COVID-related supply chain disruptions, especially in China, coupled with historically high inflation and a weaker US and global economic outlook, bode poorly for near-term EV sales. The Motley Fool Australia
  • Executives at several of the world's biggest cruise companies in recent weeks have said nearly all their ships should be running full again by the middle of 2023, for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began. The Points Guy
  • When COVID-19 first struck, digital technologies played a crucial role in the rapid design, and roll out of, emergency programmes at scale; mitigating the impact of the pandemic-related disruption globally. JRC website
  • Teachers Federal Credit Union's slow march toward becoming a national credit union hit a speed bump with the COVID-19 pandemic, and now it approaches the likelihood of a recession in 2023. Credit Union Times
  • Frustration with China's unpredictable and rigid zero-COVID regime has been mounting for some time, including offline eruptions from a solo protest in Beijing on the eve of the recent Party Congress to mass actions by workers at Foxconn's plant in Zhengzhou. China Digital Times (CDT)
  • The signs of deglobalization are everywhere - from accelerating reshoring and friendshoring to COVID supply chain disruption and worker riots in the Zhengzhou factory that produces most of the world's iPhones. Politico
  • DHS considers criticism of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, lack of faith in the election process and COVID vaccine skepticism as topics threat actors can use to undermine critical infrastructure. National File

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

people, augmented reality, infection, COVID-19, health, 3D
country, pandemic, vaccine, people, health, company
country, demand, crisis, economy, death, GDP
economy, GDP, demand, crisis, country, growth
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Baby busts from the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to a staggering decline in fertility, the combined impact of which will be apparent in precisely 2026. Time
Given the unprecedented weather extremes that have rocked the world recently, combined with disruptions to the food system from the COVID-19 pandemic, high fertilizer prices, and the war in Ukraine, the odds of a devastating food system shock will be much higher than usual through 2023. Yale Climate Connections
  • Global challenges such as the Ukraine war and China's COVID-zero policy will continue to weigh on key mining and energy raw materials, inflating some and dampening others. SURPERFORMANCE
  • The value-added of the F & B sector is not likely to return to pre-Covid levels by the end of 2022, as some dine - in and event restrictions could remain in place, while the recovery in visitor arrivals is expected to be slow. Cornerstone International Group
  • Italy, the first major Western country to experience a large Covid-19 outbreak, will soon have a post-fascist prime minister. New Statesman
  • Recovery of aviation and tourism-related sectors is likely to be gradual, with activity expected to stay below pre-Covid levels throughout 2022. Cornerstone International Group
  • Concerns about demand worsening due to an global economic slowdown amid high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears, are temporary as China can be expected to gradually relax its zero-COVID policy that has hindered palm oil consumption and demand. Reuters
  • China continues to struggle with COVID-19 outbreaks and production disruptions coupled with weak external demand. UN News
  • Beijing recently issued new directives ordering officials to minimize disruption and use more targeted Covid controls, but surging outbreaks in major cities have forced local authorities to reach for strict curbs again. Fortune
  • China has steadfastly adhered to a zero-tolerance strategy in its approach to the Covid-19 pandemic, which means that even a single case of infection will often result in lockdowns and widespread testing. Fintech Finance
  • Multiple versions of the Omicron variant are emerging around the world, raising concerns that a potential next COVID-19 wave could be driven by a host of viruses, rather than just one single one. Axios
  • Aerospace companies are ramping up investment in emerging technology as a way to combat the supply chain crisis caused by factors including Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine and hope to use it to find areas for improved efficiency including around loading cargo. Tech Monitor
  • According to a recent study by a leading analyst firm - IDC, 17-19% of firms' technology investments in 2021 and 2022 are projected to go towards initiatives addressing the need of flexible workforce, End User Experience, or agile operational models related changes caused by the COVID-19. BW people
  • As well as Beijing's zero-covid policy, technological decoupling between western countries and China, attempts by Beijing to clamp down on censorship and data storage rules - and the latest risk of military conflict over Taiwan - have affected the business environment. Raconteur
Financial Impact
In early 2020, COVID-19 spread rapidly worldwide, and is estimated to have contributed to more than 17 million deaths, with economic losses estimated to reach $12.5 trillion by 2024. Nature Medicine
Kishida wants to attract ¥5 trillion (£30bn) in tourism-generated spending a year, but the Nomura Research Institute estimates that inbound travel will generate a much lower ¥2.1 tn in 2023, and will not exceed pre-Covid levels until 2025. / Japan The Guardian
If recovery from long COVID does not pick up and the population of Americans with long COVID were to grow by 10% a year, the annual cost of lost wages alone could reach half a trillion dollars in a decade. WebMD
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Without a coordinated strategy to ensure critical virus-fighting tools and technology are accessible everywhere, COVID could cost the world $14 trillion by the end of 2024. ONE
Without a global strategy to ensure critical virus-fighting tools and technology are accessible everywhere, COVID could cost the world $14 trillion by the end of 2024. ONE
The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the estimated global shortage of 18 million health workers by 2030. The White House
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The impact of war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic pose major challenges to the global economic outlook in 2022-2023, threatening its recovery from the 2020 recession. Euromonitor
The COVID-19 pandemic risks have reversed the efforts that were made worldwide in a decade to provide nutritious food to the most vulnerable children across the globe.
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Canada used the G20 summit to announce that it will donate 10 million Moderna COVID-19 vaccines to fight the global pandemic and insisted it would deliver 200 million doses by the end of 2022 in spite of coming up well short on previous pledges. The Globe and Mail
Russia and China postponed other exercises for 2020, likely because of the COVID-19 global pandemic, but they will resume bilateral defense activities in 2021. Defense Intelligence Agency
Estimates show that 80% of the world's poor will live in fragile contexts by 2030, with a majority of them living in least developed countries, and reaffirmed that the least developed countries require enhanced global support to overcome both structural challenges and the impacts of COVID-19. Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
COVID-19 pandemic could drive the number of people living in extreme poverty above 1 billion by 2030 globally. Zoom Video Communications
The high number of COVID-19 deaths among disabled people ultimately reflects wider failures in how governments worldwide supported the people who were most at risk. The Valuable 500
Conflict, weather extremes, economic shocks, the lingering impacts of Covid-19, and the ripple effects from the war in Ukraine will push millions of people across the world into poverty and hunger. The National
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Significant resources will need to be mobilised in the coming years to reverse the worldwide effects of COVID-19, and Latin America cannot be left out. CIDOB
Softening new vehicle sales, led by continued inventory challenges related to global supply chains and forthcoming economic constraints, as well as ongoing COVID concerns, will be significant factors in the coming years. Yahoo News
How can [individuals] be helped to stay safely in their own home for longer (many will be even less likely to see a care home as a desirable option after seeing the impacts of COVID)? Insurance Business
How can lessons from Covid-19 help us to build back a better food system for improved human and environmental health? Transforming UK Food Systems
Can we emerge from the shadow of the Covid-19 pandemic as a fairer, more prosperous and more sustainable nation? NZ Herald
We should be realistic about just how catastrophic a pandemic could truly get, but we are also not that far away from a world where the answer to What would happen if a pandemic much worse than Covid hit? Vox
How will the Chinese economy cope with Beijing's bizarre and authoritarian covid protocols and the Biden administration's trade assault? Mint
How will Xi Jinping's new team handle the challenges that confront the country at home - like economic unease and ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns - and abroad - like strain in U.S.-China relations, tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and war in Europe? Brookings
Who is undaunted by disease, famine, drought, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, locusts, conflict zones - and now the COVID-19 pandemic? LSHTM
Who knows what 2022 will bring in terms of new COVID-19 waves, global conflict or environmental catastrophes that may impact an already strained Canadian immigration system? Canadian Immigrant
The retreat from strategic ambition evident over the past twenty years begs two fundamental questions; where exactly is the necessary fighting power and all of its enablers going to come from, and who is going to pay for it in the post-COVID European economy? Julian Lindley-French
What about next winter, when Russian supplies may have disappeared altogether, and the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in China may mean demand for LNG in Asia rises sharply again? Chicago Council on Global Affairs
What is the economic effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on the global market for Park Driverless Logistics Vehicle?
What is the economic effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on the global market for B2B Price Optimization and Management Software?
When will the ongoing disruption of Covid fear stop hindering our society, and when will we focus on solving the problems Covid has created for us? NZ Herald
What's the smartest play when it comes to global stocks in this third year of Covid-19?
How should decarbonisation measures be designed at a time when accommodations around the world are only slowly starting to recover from the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic? A World Worth Experiencing
What will COVID-19 and the shift to remote work do to the cities of the world? OUP Academic
How will COVID-19 alter our urban world? OUP Academic
Will Xi Jinping implement the drastic zero COVID policy, will there be structural changes in economic matters, and will the commitment to reunify Taiwan be reinforced? Atalayar
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