Covid

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

17 June 2025
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Electricity prices were forecast to stay elevated until the end of the decade, remaining at least 60% higher than they were in 2021 before the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. iNews
Global suppliers depend on China's active fossil fuel purchases and were struck - especially in the oil sector - by Beijing's slower-than-anticipated economic revival, following the removal of spartan Covid-19 restrictions since the start of the year. CNBC
Global risk is 'currently low, and existing Covid-19 vaccines are considered effective in preventing severe disease'. Hindustan Times
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • Restricting access to Covid vaccines will make it more challenging for people already at the margins who do not meet the new stricter eligibility criteria to be able to get vaccinated to protect themselves. STAT
  • Conversely, with GDI likely to slow from 2025 onwards, while real wages and consumption remain resilient, the saving ratio is expected to start declining, although it should remain above its pre-Covid historical average in 2027. Banque de France
  • Despite the advantages of competition, the suspicion that China was to blame for the pandemic of Covid-19 could create unexpected costs for countries adopting Chinese technology. Cambridge Core
Weaknesses
  • Australia's construction sector continues to face elevated cost pressures more than three years after the initial disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Insurance Business
  • Poor countries would suffer the most, with developing economies likely to be 6% smaller in 2027 than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic. Australian Broadcasting Corporation
  • Kennedy and the Trump administration have impeded the development of newer, possibly more effective vaccines for both flu and covid-19, and are attempting to place testing roadblocks that will make future vaccine approvals harder to secure. Gizmodo
Opportunities
  • Fitch Ratings projects China outbound tourism to the Asia Pacific region will recover to 86% of pre-Covid levels in 2024, with full APAC tourism recovery expected by the first half of 2025. Daily Lodging Report
  • Health officials at the World Health Organization are warning of a rise in cases from a new COVID-19 variant. Ophthalmology Advisor
  • Doctors are warning that the latest Covid symptoms in 2025 are often mistaken for allergies, flu, or weather changes - making early detection and awareness more important than ever. Best Multispeciality Hospital in Gurugram | Silverstrea
Threats
  • The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global shipping and supply chains, from port congestion to container shortages. Citizen Digital
  • Anyone can get sick with COVID-19, but some people are at higher risk of developing severe illness, including people over the age of 65 and people who are immunocompromised or have underlying medical conditions. TODAY
  • The WHO assesses the additional risk to the global public as currently low, and existing Covid-19 vaccines are considered effective in preventing severe disease. The Independent
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
people, augmented reality, infection, COVID-19, health, airline
Emerging
country, pandemic, vaccine, health, people, company
Maturing
country, demand, crisis, economy, death, GDP
Declining
economy, demand, GDP, crisis, country, growth
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Electricity prices were forecast to stay elevated until the end of the decade, remaining at least 60% higher than they were in 2021 before the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. iNews
The recent Monkeypox virus spread is a reminder of the need for diligent surveillance data monitoring for adequate containment of outbreaks and timely initiation of response measures, given the uncertainties and global fear of a repeated pandemic calamity that had the impact of COVID-19. PubMed Central (PMC)
PEST
Political
  • Many SCAs in emerging countries have faced disruption and fluctuated substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to uncertain growth of the global supply chain of aquaculture trade recently. MDPI
  • Aquaculture supply chains play an essential role in global trading and fluctuated significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic when many aquaculture supply chains from emerging countries faced disruption. MDPI
  • Beyond the geopolitically intense landscape in Asia, the COVID-19-induced supply chain disruption made India recognize the need for a stable, non-China-centered supply chain. KOREA CENTRE
Economic
  • The Canadian economy is set to face the most severe shock since the Covid-19 pandemic and will probably sink into a recession if a tariff war persists. Edge and Odds -
  • By transforming the Covid-19 crisis to an opportunity, India has proved its ability to innovate and rise to the challenge with limited resources and time. Times of India
  • Conflicts, climate change, COVID-19 disruptions, and rising food prices are intensifying food insecurity, affecting some 2 billion people worldwide. CGIAR
Social
  • The demand for non-Covid vaccines is expected to grow at 7% p.a. between 2023 and 2030. Bain
  • American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have all forecast a return to full utilization of their regional fleets, which have been slow to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic due to a years-long pilot shortage. Flight Global
  • The concept of gene therapy has long made many uneasy - a sentiment that seemed to vanish in the face of the global fear campaign surrounding COVID-19. Technocracy News
Technological
  • Opportunities demonstrated include the potential of using mobile phone data to predict dengue outbreaks and existing labour and household surveys to predict COVID-19 hotspots in Pakistan. BioMed Central
  • With the rise of remote work due to global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, organizations may need to revise their BCPs to address new vulnerabilities associated with remote access technologies or increased cyber threats. Business Case Studies
  • During the COVID-19 outbreak, social VR platforms (e.g., VR Chat, AltspaceVR, and Mozilla Hubs) emerged as alternatives to face-to-face interactions, enabling people to stay connected in virtual spaces while mitigating the risk of virus transmission from in-person meetings. MDPI
Financial Impact
Global Public Debt: Projected to reach USD 315 trillion in 2024, global debt encompasses borrowings by households, businesses, and governments, driven by factors like the Covid-19 pandemic and rising commodity prices. EDUREV.IN
The global logistics industry rebounded from COVID-19 in 2022, reaching $10.41 trillion and projected to top $14.08 trillion by 2028. Cash Flow Inventory
Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the real estate industry was set to reach a value of one trillion U.S. dollars by 2030. / India Statista
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
The global spread of COVID-19 led to widespread lockdowns, exacerbating mental health issues and the disruption of daily routines; including the abrupt transition to remote learning. BioMed Central
Global crises, such as the Yemen conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, illustrate the compounded vulnerabilities faced by children in disaster settings. BioMed Central
If a yellow fever pandemic were to occur in today's world, its much higher lethality could make the COVID-19 pandemic pale by comparison, resulting in a devastating global public health crisis. News-Medical
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated both the vulnerability of global systems to respiratory viruses and the potential effectiveness of coordinated prevention measures. RivisionTown
From Covid-19 to climate change and international politics, disinformation and malign influence are well recognised threats but disinformation and malign influence are rife in world of business and finance, threatening organizations, leaders, and brands. Eventbrite
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The global roll-out of mRNA-based Covid vaccines will be remembered as the biggest crime to ever have been committed on mankind. Stillness in the Storm
Covid-19 disruptions, drug resistance, humanitarian crises, and climate change pose threats to the global malaria response. Drishti IAS
The Islamic Republic of Iran exports 1.7m barrels of oil a day, and disruption via an attack would hinder global efforts to return to a post-COVID normal. Capital's Substack
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
The COVID-19 pandemic could push approximately 13.5% of the world's population into unemployment and 28 million people into extreme poverty. BioMed Central
The global food system has been unable to deal with disruptions caused by unusual and extreme weather conditions, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. Mongabay Environmental News
COVID-19 further exposed the economic vulnerabilities of Africa as 155 million have been pushed into extreme poverty globally. AgroNigeria
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
After enduring the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain disruptions, and fluctuating consumer behaviour, businesses must prepare for potential economic downturns that may arise in the next few years. UMA Technology
Malaria-related deaths could increase by up to 36% globally over the next five years because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature
Questions
Can?
In what ways can the pharma industry enhance its approach to supply chain resilience, especially considering the lessons learned from global crises like COVID-19? PM360
The medical institution being market-oriented shall be one of the new key points of the healthcare insurance reform, whether it can effectively raise the capacity of hospital to receive more patients and improve the medical resource to handle disease similar to COVID-19 pandemic? PubMed Central (PMC)
Can Tanzania Resume and Reimagine Agricultural Trade With China in a Post-COVID-19 World? Development Reimagined
How?
How will the experience of the COVID-19 disinformation monitoring programme benefit the strengthened Code? Shaping Europe's digital future
How will China's Zero COVID-19 policies affect global supply chains? SlideShare
How will COVID-19 impact Australia's future population? PubMed Central (PMC)
Who?
Who will be the 'Winners and Losers' in the Energy Transition post-COVID? Energy Transition Forum
As COVID-era "Zoomtowns" and the urban exodus fade into history, which city in every state is most popular for Americans who want to move now? moveBuddha
Who could have foreseen Covid, or Russia's invasion of Ukraine, for instance, or the impact of the rise of shareholder activism against fossil fuels? Stockhead
What?
What lasting effects from the COVID-era e-commerce boom are still shaping demand for industrial space? Logistics Management
What is the association between populist-aligned views and attitudes towards and/or engagement with public health interventions addressing health topics other than COVID-19 among people living in OECD countries? BioMed Central
What are the sector-specific volatility dynamics in response to global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Nature
When?
When the hotel market bottoms out, how long will it take to get back to pre-COVID - 19 occupancy levels? Cushman & Wakefield
When issues such as conflict and COVID emerge, how can organizations effectively communicate with the right tone of voice around complex global topics? Internal Communications Europe
The trajectory of oil demand in a post-COVID world - when and how will the peak of oil demand materialise? cconnection
Will?
Will Trump and the New GOP Congress Get to the Bottom of COVID-19's Origin? Reason.com
Will COVID-19 be the tipping point for the Intelligent automation of work? Unknown
As companies navigate a rapidly changing business landscape post-Covid, will a return to full-time office create a lack of trust between employees and bosses? - Daily insights for people development professionals t
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