Summary

Change Drivers

• In 2017, online shopping sales in the United States alone reached $2.3 trillion, and the global growth of online retail sales is projected to hit US$4.48 trillion by 2021.
• Unmanned stores may become a more common sight around the world in years to come but people will still feature heavily in creating a successful shopping experience.
• By 2020, China's new system of social credit scoring is expected to give each citizen a trustworthiness rating based on anything from shopping habits to choice of friends.
• Only about 20 percent of users have tried voice shopping with an AI assistant today, but that's going to change, with voice shopping expected to be a $40 billion industry by 2022.
• By 2027, technology will dramatically reshape the retail industry in China-most notably, as the IoT and AI digitalize real-world actions (widgets to digits), autonomous vehicles and drones improve logistics, and augmented reality transforms the shopping experience.
• A new report from Food Marketing Institute and Nielsen finds that 70% of consumers will be grocery shopping online by 2024.

Analysis

This summary analysis draws from our robot's below visualizations of the future of shopping.

Systems map: The shopping experience is going to be dramatically influenced by arriving technologies such as chatbots, drones, store robots, cashless payments, AI and virtual reality led by Amazon, Facebook, Google and Walmart.

Radar chart: Over the next five years, VR / AR apps will transform numerous industries from e-commerce to social media to publishing to manufacturing design, increasing productivity and creating new ways of working, playing, and shopping.

Graph-It: Voice and AI will bring a massive shift in instore and ecommerce shopping habits with security and privacy at the forefront of sellers and buyers minds in 2021. Zero trust is on the rise.

Spline chart (Beta): Peak spline activity in terms of changes to shopping are expected between 2020 and 2029 with increasing digitization due to drone deliveries, automatic ordering and mobile phone shopping expected to change shopping habits from 2025 onwards, especially with the arrival of 5G from late this year.

Emerging Drivers: The very high, intensity of improvements being made to the shopping experience is expected to continue for at least a decade. Traditional retailers are also fighting back through stores designed with entertainment and social experiences in mind.

Sentiment: Sentiment towards these improvements are very positive but concerns are rising about the likely large loss of jobs, shops and retail support services with the further hollowing out of town centers.

Pie Charts: The Pie Charts reflect the massive upheaval in shopping that will occur between now and 2040 when customers are likely to have embraced the new business models as the status quo. The prizes can be counted in billions pf dollars for the winners who are fast gaining traction with their new models and evolving rapidly.

Heat map: The Heat Map indicates that the UK, USA and China will be the likely leaders in improving the shopping experience with Amazon's arrival in Australia likely to shake things up there.

Geography: Geographically, it's the major affluent shopping areas of the world that will see the most change in habits first: USA and Canada with India's expected growth and burgeoning population another major target and Europe, Australia and UAE next.

SWOT: Lastly, the SWOT chart shows a higher level of threat and weaknesses for the reasons mentioned earlier but still with huge global improvement opportunities and existing strengths. Are you ready to inspire engage and enable all your stakeholders with a better business model for mid-21st century? Will you be an Adventurer, Adopter or, Abstainer? We sincerely hope you will be an Adventurer and improve life for everyone and those to follow us.

Potential Solutions (New)

• Open Banking will unite banks and FinTech in creating a new world.
• AI for CRM will soon become a global economic engine for innovation, business models and jobs.
• The winners in this new digital world will challenge conventional thinking on product innovation, customer engagement, organizational structure, strategy and business models.

Potential Responses (New)
Determine how you can respond to Athena's findings by examining your options either on your own, or collaboratively if our client.

Contact us if you would like some free training with this tool.

Visuals
For more detailed explanation of the graphics below please click here. All outlooks based on 2025 unless otherwise stated.

System map
The shopping experience is going to be dramatically influenced by arriving technologies such as chatbots, drones, store robots, cashless payments, AI and virtual reality led by Amazon, Facebook, Google and Walmart.

Radar
Over the next five years, VR / AR apps will transform numerous industries from e-commerce to social media to publishing to manufacturing design, increasing productivity and creating new ways of working, playing, and shopping.

Graph-It
Voice and AI will bring a massive shift in instore and ecommerce shopping habits with security and privacy at the forefront of sellers and buyers minds in 2021. Zero trust is on the rise.

Spline (Beta)
Peak spline activity in terms of changes to shopping are expected between 2020 and 2029 with increasing digitization due to drone deliveries, automatic ordering and mobile phone shopping expected to change shopping habits from 2025 onwards, especially with the arrival of 5G from late this year.
 

The blue line represents the five-year moving average of the aggregated splines that can be seen in background.

Emerging Drivers
The very high, intensity of improvements being made to the shopping experience is expected to continue for at least a decade. Traditional retailers are also fighting back through stores designed with entertainment and social experiences in mind.

Sentiment
Sentiment towards these improvements are very positive but concerns are rising about the likely large loss of jobs, shops and retail support services with the further hollowing out of town centers

Pie Charts
The Pie Charts reflect the massive upheaval in shopping that will occur between now and 2040 when customers are likely to have embraced the new business models as the status quo. The prizes can be counted in billions pf dollars for the winners who are fast gaining traction with their new models and evolving rapidly.

Heat map
The Heat Map indicates that the UK, USA and China will be the likely leaders in improving the shopping experience with Amazon's arrival in Australia likely to shake things up there.

Geography
Geographically, it's the major affluent shopping areas of the world that will see the most change in habits first: USA and Canada with India's expected growth and burgeoning population another major target and Europe, Australia and UAE next.

SWOT
Lastly, the SWOT chart shows predominant opportunities and strengths in shopping with few major threats or risks likely to seriously know the inexorable changes that are forecast to happen in the next twenty years.

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A few Potential Solutions (automatically selected by Athena from our database)

• The Philippines' richest man Henry Sy will start rolling out robots next year to help customers navigate his massive shopping malls.
• The new visual search capability could help Pinterest evolve into an online shopping experience with the ability to tap into users at all moments in the purchasing process.
• The greatest opportunity for growth will come from product categories that were traditionally dominated by brick-and-mortar shopping, including groceries, major appliance products and clothing.
• UK women will spend almost half of their remaining life with low dependency needs, such as help with activities like washing and shopping, alongside a small increase in years requiring intensive 24-hour care.
• An influx of capital could result in a revival in the formal retail sector (e.g., supermarkets, shopping malls) over the next several years.

Extracted forecasts found by Athena and linked back to the original articles, reports and PowerPoints (Insights) that she found can be found below using this search term:

• Evidence

Search term: Shopping

shopping

• Machine learning will be used more heavily in 2019 to help identify how customers are shopping on a business's site.
• A market research firm that forecasts data for thousands of consumer goods markets worldwide, On-the-go consumers are shopping for grab and go breakfasts, quick snacks and dinner time solutions.
• In retail, 84 percent of respondents expect to use mobile payments and anytime / anywhere delivery to make shopping more convenient, but 55 percent feel that it is unlikely there will only be virtual shopping in 2030.
• New lifestyle needs will make categories like luggage, backpacks and even fanny packs popular items on shopping and wish-lists during the 2018 holiday season.
• Amazon's version of a futuristic 7-Eleven store is coming to New York City, and it's going to be located inside a shopping and office complex across from the World Trade Center.
• Over the next five years, VR / AR apps will transform numerous industries from e-commerce to social media to publishing to manufacturing design, increasing productivity and creating new ways of working, playing, and shopping.
• UK women will spend almost half of their remaining life with low dependency needs, such as help with activities like washing and shopping, alongside a small increase in years requiring intensive 24-hour care.

sale

• By the end of 2019, sales of smart speakers will grow by 50%, and the market will reach $2.7 B: Marketing tools will be integrated with voice services: there will be many applications for voice shopping, from ordering food to receiving news.
• TDs and MEPs are already being lobbied to allow the re-introduction of tax-free shopping outlets in Irish airports, which could produce extra €45.4m in annual travel retail sales, supporting another 450 jobs.
• China's online retail sales are expected to increase steadily at an 8.5% compound annual growth rate through to 2022.
• It is expected with the current growth of online shopping and social media influence that internet food and drink sales will rise by 53% in Japan during the period from 2016 to 2021.
• 2018 will see more smaller businesses leverage storefront apps to drive sales and customer loyalty.
• Global online sales average about 8.8% of total sales in 2018, with China one of the highest online users at 16.6%, while the U.S. and Canada are just average: Global online sales will double to $4.5 trillion by 2021.
• The eMarketer figures show that in-store sales are actually going to see a 4.4 percent pickup this year, rising to $878.38 billion.
• Online shopping is projected to increase at 10 times the rate of in-store sales during the next five years.
• The share of UK online sales in non-food could reach half of non-food sales by 2030 and in food as high as 40%.

market

• By the end of 2019, sales of smart speakers will grow by 50%, and the market will reach $2.7 B: Marketing tools will be integrated with voice services: there will be many applications for voice shopping, from ordering food to receiving news.
• This year, the online shopping juggernaut will capture 49.1% of the market, up from a 43.5% share last year.:
• In North America, the U.S. is expected to dominate the market due to rise in mobile shopping.
• China's online grocery market is expected to reach US$30 B this year.
• Increasing online retail shopping through online retail formats such as in-store pickup and pure-play online grocers is expected to drive the food retail market in the years to come.
• Voice shopping on Alexa alone could generate more than $5 billion per year in revenue by 2020, according to RBC Capital Markets.
• Global artificial intelligence in retail market is expected to grow from US$712.6 million in 2016 to US$ 27,238.6 million by 2025 at a CAGR of 51.2% between 2017 and 2025.
• The Technology Market has typically been the biggest attention-grabber at past festivals: This year, visitors could experience the future of retail by donning AR-powered goggles that allowed them to view the inside of a shopping mall without ever setting a foot in one.
• Shopping using voice commands is already possible, even if it is only used to a relatively modest extent: The US market will expand from its current value of $2 billion to $40 billion in the next five years.
• When it comes to the US ecommerce market, Amazon is leaving the competition in the dust.
• One report predicts the voice shopping market to grow from $2 billion today to $40 billion by 2022.
• The voice shopping market will grow from $2 billion to $40 billion by 2022.

experience

• The industry leaders of tomorrow will be those that can identify lingering gaps in the consumer experience and use digital platforms to provide a reliable, satisfactory solution.
• 2018 Retail brands are expected to work in providing an Immersive and Omnichannel experiences for the shoppers with exceptional in-store as well as online experience for them.
• The mobile shopping experience will continue to be top-of-mind for retailers in 2018 as consumers grow increasingly comfortable shopping and transacting on their devices.
• IGD has predicted that 2019's global retail trends will include data, sustainability, seamless shopping experience and a surge in shopping opportunities to be available anywhere, anytime.
• A dramatic transition in the retail landscape will continue in 2019 with the physical store reflecting ever changing consumer needs but remaining a fundamental part of the shopping experience, influencing over 85 per cent of spend.
• By 2027, technology will dramatically reshape the retail industry in China-most notably, as the IoT and AI digitalize real-world actions (widgets to digits), autonomous vehicles and drones improve logistics, and augmented reality transforms the shopping experience.
• In early 2018, Walmart has acquired a small VR start up to augment its VR efforts and it hopes to transform the shopping experience across the company's different websites and stores.
• Unmanned stores may become a more common sight around the world in years to come but people will still feature heavily in creating a successful shopping experience.

shopper

• Across the Atlantic, shoppers in the United Kingdom are expected to spend more than £1bn online shopping, with 80% of customers saying that they will avoid busy shops today.
• 15 percent of shoppers in 2018 will use social media for some of their purchases, up from 8 percent last year.
• 2018 Retail brands are expected to work in providing an Immersive and Omnichannel experiences for the shoppers with exceptional in-store as well as online experience for them.
• As might be expected, millennials and Gen X shoppers expect to make the largest increases in Amazon shopping for traditional c-store products over the coming year.
• U.S. shoppers will spend $119.99 billion with online retailers during the upcoming holiday shopping season of Nov. 1-Dec. 31.
• US shoppers are predicted to spend about $720 billion during the 2018 holiday shopping season, a 4.1% boost over 2017 holiday retail spending.
• This year, US shoppers are expected to spend $7.25bn according to a research by Adobe Analytics, with $2.5bn expected to be spent on online shopping on mobile devices.

commerce

• With the added benefit limitless transactions and biometric security offered by mobile wallets, our smart phones could be the key to the next frontier of frictionless commerce.
• Focusing specifically on shopping with voice-assistants, management strategy consultants OC & C, estimate an astonishing $40 billion will be spent on U.S. voice commerce by 2022.
• Voice commerce in 2018 will reach $2.10 billion, just 0.4% of US ecommerce sales.

season

• French retailers have warned that prolonged protests could hit the Christmas shopping season and threaten jobs, while President Emmanuel Macron has shown no sign of backing down on taxes introduced last year on diesel and petrol to encourage people to switch to cleaner forms of transport.
• New lifestyle needs will make categories like luggage, backpacks and even fanny packs popular items on shopping and wish-lists during the 2018 holiday season.
• A recent report by ACI worldwide predicts that there will be a 14% increase in fraud attempts during the 2018 holiday season.
• US shoppers are predicted to spend about $720 billion during the 2018 holiday shopping season, a 4.1% boost over 2017 holiday retail spending.
• Hiring challenges have already led to rising labor costs for many restaurants: the oncoming holiday shopping season is expected to make matters worse as retailers, which compete with restaurants for workers, expect to hire even more employees in the coming months to meet expected shopping demand.
• US retail shops are expecting a robust shopping season as multinational professional firm Deloitte is forecasting that this year's back-to-school spending will increase by 2.2 percent to $27.6 billion.
• U.S. shoppers will spend $119.99 billion with online retailers during the upcoming holiday shopping season of Nov. 1-Dec. 31.
• Overall e-commerce sales will grow by 17 to 22 percent from last year's shopping season, with online sales accounting for 57 percent of all purchases.

trend

• Customers expect more, that's why Progressive Web Apps are becoming crucial trends in online shopping for e-commerce businesses in 2019.
• IGD has predicted that 2019's global retail trends will include data, sustainability, seamless shopping experience and a surge in shopping opportunities to be available anywhere, anytime.
• Omnichannel will continue to be more complete as the main retail trend in 2019.

mall

• Coworking space inside of both enclosed and open-air malls is predicted to grow by an annual rate of 25 percent through 2023.
• The Philippines' richest man Henry Sy will start rolling out robots next year to help customers navigate his massive shopping malls.
• The Technology Market has typically been the biggest attention-grabber at past festivals: This year, visitors could experience the future of retail by donning AR-powered goggles that allowed them to view the inside of a shopping mall without ever setting a foot in one.
• 20-25 % of US shopping malls will shut down within the next five years.

device

• The mobile shopping experience will continue to be top-of-mind for retailers in 2018 as consumers grow increasingly comfortable shopping and transacting on their devices.
• There will be 20.4bn IoT devices worldwide by 2020.
• This year, US shoppers are expected to spend $7.25bn according to a research by Adobe Analytics, with $2.5bn expected to be spent on online shopping on mobile devices.
• Mobile e-commerce is expected to account for about half of holiday shopping this year, with 57% of consumers saying they will shop online for gifts using their computers and 42% will use mobile devices, according to Citi Retail Services.
• Gartner envisages that in 2020 the consumers will possess over twice as many smart devices as they enjoy today.

habit

• US industry famously hobbled by an ongoing driver shortage which ATA pegged at a shortfall of 51,000 last year, and projects will get exponentially worse in coming years as in-home grocery deliveries and online shopping habits increase dramatically.
• Augmented reality will drive $1.6 billion of retail annually by 2025, fuelled by the shopping habits of some 32 million consumers.
• By 2020, China's new system of social credit scoring is expected to give each citizen a trustworthiness rating based on anything from shopping habits to choice of friends.

Question

• Chatbot Shopping PA - A shift in consumer behaviour?
• Will the convenience that Amazon and Whole Foods are able to offer bring back one-stop shopping and increase customer loyalty?
• How will AI change the landscape of online shopping and other forms of online commerce?

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Sources
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 1,362 forecasts in seconds on 17th January 2018 to allow us to publish this report in less than two hours. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish, or we can prepare a full customized and professionally written brief for you to order covering all these forecasts.

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Athena
Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents. 

Athena is apolitical. She will report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not her purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, we recommend you check her veracity before responding to her extracted forecasts.

Just like humans, Athena can be fallible. Do recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, she does not. She might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and she'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in her stride. But, please let us know if you feel her bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate her findings for yourself.

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