tariffs

• In the short term, tariffs might divert more Canadian scrap aluminum exports to China, but imposing tariffs on U.S. scrap will disrupt the price and supply of material
• China warned it was fully prepared to respond with a fierce counter strike if the United States follows through on Trump's latest threat to impose tariffs on an extra $100 billion in Chinese goods.
• A decision by China to levy tariffs on 737 Max 8 imports could have profound implications for Boeing and the Chinese airline industry.
• U.S. soybean futures fell as much as 2.5 percent after Washington threatened further tariffs on China.
• Tariffs will do nothing to improve labor rights or working conditions for workers in China.
• Tariffs run the risk of provoking China to take further destructive actions against American manufacturing workers.
• The total $50bn of tariffs announced so far will fall on 106 different US goods such as cars and older aircraft.
• Trump's threatened increase of tariffs on Chinese goods would affect only about 30% of what China exports to the US.
• China has said implementation of its tariffs will depend on the US.
• The mere threat of tariffs should prompt buyers in China to cancel some unshipped orders and shop for Brazilian-grown commodities instead.
• China will respond to any tariffs imposed by the U.S. against alleged violations of intellectual property rights with the same proportion, scale and intensity.
• China will impose tariffs of 25 percent on 106 items made in the US.
• The United States will need to find other tools besides trying to impose tariffs or other bilateral trade restrictions on China to sustain a free market.
• There are reports that Trump will extend tariffs further against China in retaliation for intellectual property theft.
• China has threatened to retaliate by hitting U.S. agricultural exports if tariffs on Chinese imports worth up to $60 billion are announced by Washington.
• China has announced it is going to slap an extra 15% import tariff on American wine as part of its retaliation against the Trump administration's decision on Thursday to levy tariffs on about US$50 billion worth of Chinese imports. These are hints that Trump may adopt more tariffs that could hit out and invite China to retaliate.
  

war

• At least during the early skirmishes of the coming trade war, Harley-Davidson motorcycles and Kentucky bourbon appear to face considerably more trade risk than oil and gas.
• UK and EU pork exports could gain from the developing US-China trade war.
• Canada and other countries may soon be in position to paraphrase Bezos' iconic boast as an emerging trade war involving the United States and China creates export opportunities for other countries.
• The possibility of an escalating U.S.-China trade war will result in "a bumpy ride" for the U.S. economy.
• Boeing has become an unofficial proxy for fears about an escalating U.S.-China trade war.
• In 2017, Chinese imports of US goods totaled $130 billion, so there is no way this retaliatory ratio could hold: theoretically, if the US and China were to get into a full -blown trade war, China could cease importing up to $130 billion of US products.
• Risks from a potential trade war with the U.S. are clouding the economic outlook for China.
  

export

• China could win a trade war with America by simply ending exports of rare earth metals.
• The United States sold nearly $1 billion worth of sorghum to China in 2017: Should China impose duties on those exports, states like Kansas, which account for nearly half of the nation's sorghum production, could take a sizable financial hit.
• China will likely take a similar approach to the planned tariffs on $50 billion of its exports to the U.S.-respond in kind, but not escalate.
• In the short term, tariffs might divert more Canadian scrap aluminum exports to China, but imposing tariffs on U.S. scrap will disrupt the price and supply of material
• Trump's threatened increase of tariffs on Chinese goods would affect only about 30% of what China exports to the US.
• Greater restrictions on Chinese auto exports could boost Japanese and German car shipments.
• UK and EU pork exports could gain from the developing US-China trade war.
  

market

• Markets may have hit "peak fear" when it comes to the threat of a trade war between the US and China and will react less aggressively to future developments as a result.
• China vows to open its markets further in response to Trump's tariff threats.
• The United States will need to find other tools besides trying to impose tariffs or other bilateral trade restrictions on China to sustain a free market.
• China will leapfrog America as the world's biggest market in the coming five years.
• The threat of U.S. tariffs now hangs over a handful of consumer-goods markets including household appliances, lithium ion batteries, and parts for air conditioners-sectors that China hopes to dominate.

trade

• US soybean futures slumped on the news as it put at risk its trade in the commodity with China, the world's biggest buyer of US soybeans.
• Escalating strife between China and the U.S. will almost discourage all types of trade in services between the two countries including tourism and educational services.
• The potential for trade flows to be redirected away from the U.S. will become increasingly relevant.
• A trade war with China could affect the almost 2.5 million U.S. jobs associated with trade involving technology products.
• The Trump administration hopes China will make concessions to avoid a substantial cut-off in trade.
• China might respond with cuts to the country's service trade with the US.
• China could curtail its services trade with the US or increase the regulatory burden for US firms operating in China.

goods

• Chinese tech products and goods with Chinese information technology built-in are expected to be among tariff targets.=
• From a trade partner standpoint, certain European and Asia-Pacific allies who are larger trading partners than China on certain goods could be harmed.
• China warned it was fully prepared to respond with a fierce counter strike if the United States follows through on Trump's latest threat to impose tariffs on an extra $100 billion in Chinese goods.
• Trump's threatened increase of tariffs on Chinese goods would affect only about 30% of what China exports to the US.
• The total $50bn of tariffs announced so far will fall on 106 different US goods such as cars and older aircraft.
• China could hit back hard at Donald Trump's new tariffs by targeting agricultural goods and other products from states that voted for the US president.
• China threatens 25% tariff on $50 billion of US goods as trade war escalates.
  

action

• China could even take actions to weaken the strength of its currency.
• Tariffs run the risk of provoking China to take further destructive actions against American manufacturing workers.
• Any sweeping trade action against China could raise consumer prices, increase costs for businesses and hurt stock prices.
  

system

• China will realize that it cannot keep using the system for its narrow economic advantage and will finally act to address the growing complaints from its trading partners.
• Unilateral trade tariffs threaten to put the integration of the global trading system into reverse.
• Scenario, these actions will prove to be a healthy shock to the global trading system.
  

product

• Beijing will levy tariffs on more than 100 products traded with the USA.
• The U.S. tariffs are expected to target products benefiting from Beijing's Made in China 2025 industrial development program.
• China could hit back hard at Donald Trump's new tariffs by targeting agricultural goods and other products from states that voted for the US president.
• China will retaliate by targeting U.S. exports of aircraft, soybeans and other products and start a tit-for-tat trade war of escalating sanctions between the world's two biggest economies.
• Chinese tech products and goods with Chinese information technology built-in are expected to be among tariff targets.
• A trade war with China could affect the almost 2.5 million U.S. jobs associated with trade involving technology products.
  

restriction

• The United States is preparing restrictions that could prevent China from investing in high-tech industries like semiconductors and electric vehicles.
• WTO rules afford countries broad authority to impose restrictions that they regard as necessary for their national security, so the United States may prevail in litigation that could take years to adjudicate.
• The United States will need to find other tools besides trying to impose tariffs or other bilateral trade restrictions on China to sustain a free market.
• Greater restrictions on Chinese auto exports could boost Japanese and German car shipments.

Questions

• Could a trade war erupt if China devalues by a large percentage in
  response?
• Is the get-tough approach finally forcing Beijing to clean up its act on trade?
• Will we see a decrease in trade in 2017 with China and Mexico?

Please note: The graphs below are a selection from our extensive collection of visual analysis tools that you can manipulate on the Shaping Tomorrow service to suit your own purposes. There are less than usual given the short-term focus of this alert.

Sentiment analysis
Sentiment bounced back in the past few days as analysts recognized the relatively small impact the imposition of currently announced tariffs was likely to have on both the US and China. Whether the skirmish will turn into a full-blown war has yet to be seen. Keep in touch with the trend by searching Shaping Tomorrow for 'Trade AND China' then click the Sentiment button.

Pie charts

The Pie Charts below show that while the Intensity of the spat is high it hasn't yet reached crisis proportions and is mostly at an early stage with the impact in billions rather than trillions of dollars.

Radar chart

This chart is probably the most telling because it highlights America's growing concern about China gaining access to its technologies rather than the current reports on impacts on Harley's, soybeans, pork and steel. IPR would appear to be at the crux of solving the trade issue.

Countries
We show this chart to highlight how little the world will likely be impacted by existing tariff changes.

Sources
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 1306 forecasts in seconds on the 10th April 2018 to allow us to publish this summary in less than thirty minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish.

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Please note: The graphs below are a selection from our extensive collection of visual analysis tools that you can manipulate on the Shaping Tomorrow service to suit your own purposes. There are less than usual given the short-term focus of this alert.

Sentiment analysis
Sentiment bounced back in the past few days as analysts recognized the relatively small impact the imposition of currently announced tariffs was likely to have on both the US and China. Whether the skirmish will turn into a full-blown war has yet to be seen. Keep in touch with the trend by searching Shaping Tomorrow for 'Trade AND China' then click the Sentiment button.

Pie charts

The Pie Charts below show that while the Intensity of the spat is high it hasn't yet reached crisis proportions and is mostly at an early stage with the impact in billions rather than trillions of dollars.

Radar chart

This chart is probably the most telling because it highlights America's growing concern about China gaining access to its technologies rather than the current reports on impacts on Harley's, soybeans, pork and steel. IPR would appear to be at the crux of solving the trade issue.

Countries
We show this chart to highlight how little the world will likely be impacted by existing tariff changes.

Sources
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 1306 forecasts in seconds on the 10th April 2018 to allow us to publish this summary in less than thirty minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish.

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