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Trade War?

Athena @ ST 11 April 2018


We interrupt our normal future focus to highlight the fears of a global trade war that are rattling stock markets around the world after President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on China and Xi threatened to respond in kind. Read on to see a partial report from our robot Athena, on key issues surrounding the latest US/China tariffs and use our AI and systems thinking to develop your response.
What is changing?

tariffs

war

export

market

trade

goods

action

system

product

restriction

Questions

Implications

Please note: The graphs below are a selection from our extensive collection of visual analysis tools that you can manipulate on the Shaping Tomorrow service to suit your own purposes. There are less than usual given the short-term focus of this alert.

Sentiment analysis
Sentiment bounced back in the past few days as analysts recognized the relatively small impact the imposition of currently announced tariffs was likely to have on both the US and China. Whether the skirmish will turn into a full-blown war has yet to be seen. Keep in touch with the trend by searching Shaping Tomorrow for 'Trade AND China' then click the Sentiment button.

Trade Sentiment

Pie charts

The Pie Charts below show that while the Intensity of the spat is high it hasn't yet reached crisis proportions and is mostly at an early stage with the impact in billions rather than trillions of dollars.

Trade Pie Chart

Radar chart

This chart is probably the most telling because it highlights America's growing concern about China gaining access to its technologies rather than the current reports on impacts on Harley's, soybeans, pork and steel. IPR would appear to be at the crux of solving the trade issue.

Trade Radar

Countries
We show this chart to highlight how little the world will likely be impacted by existing tariff changes.

Trade Countries

Sources
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 1306 forecasts in seconds on the 10th April 2018 to allow us to publish this summary in less than thirty minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish.

Trade Sources

Please note: The graphs below are a selection from our extensive collection of visual analysis tools that you can manipulate on the Shaping Tomorrow service to suit your own purposes. There are less than usual given the short-term focus of this alert.

Sentiment analysis
Sentiment bounced back in the past few days as analysts recognized the relatively small impact the imposition of currently announced tariffs was likely to have on both the US and China. Whether the skirmish will turn into a full-blown war has yet to be seen. Keep in touch with the trend by searching Shaping Tomorrow for 'Trade AND China' then click the Sentiment button.

Trade Sentiment

Pie charts

The Pie Charts below show that while the Intensity of the spat is high it hasn't yet reached crisis proportions and is mostly at an early stage with the impact in billions rather than trillions of dollars.

Trade Pie Chart

Radar chart

This chart is probably the most telling because it highlights America's growing concern about China gaining access to its technologies rather than the current reports on impacts on Harley's, soybeans, pork and steel. IPR would appear to be at the crux of solving the trade issue.

Trade Radar

Countries
We show this chart to highlight how little the world will likely be impacted by existing tariff changes.

Trade Countries

Sources
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 1306 forecasts in seconds on the 10th April 2018 to allow us to publish this summary in less than thirty minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish.

Trade Sources

Forecast:
Insight:

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