investment

• Beijing could increase its own discriminatory practices and further block U.S. imports and investment.
• China could get more with less if it relied less on bank credit and inefficient investment and more on central government borrowing and social spending to support its economy.
• The main bulk of new investment in renewable energy will be in Asian markets: China and India will be at the forefront of new investments for some considerable time to come.
• China will account for 28% and India 11% of total regional investment between 2017 and 2040.
  

state

• There are scattered worries that China will become a mass surveillance state and begin cracking down on dissidence, building towards tyranny.
• Over the next five years, six of ASEAN's economies will grow faster than China and every single one of ASEAN's economies will grow faster than both the United States and the European Union.
• Plenty of American companies would be at risk in a trade war between the United States and China.
• The United States and China share a vital security interest: seeing Afghanistan stabilized as a country that will prevent groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda from exporting terrorist violence.
• By 2035, about 150 million vehicles will be made globally with more than 75 million EVs, primarily outside the United States - a $2 trillion industry emerging mostly to the benefit of China and others.
• The United States could launch a steady stream of actions against trading partners, especially China, and some of them may even prove costly.
• As Beijing narrows the local balance of power gap with the United States, security commitments made by Washington decades ago could become harder to maintain.
  

company

• Plenty of American companies would be at risk in a trade war between the United States and China.
• Chinese companies are expected to be involved in two of Greenland's largest planned mining projects (including one of the world's largest rare-earth mines).
• Strengthening Polish-Chinese cooperation on new technology by signing an agreement to promote the digital dimension of China's Belt and Road Initiative or Chinese digital companies taking a bigger share of Poland's public procurement sector could be viewed as contradictory to European Union policy.
• The real race in AI between China and the US will be one between the two countries' big cloud companies.
• Chinese-owned companies are expected to ramp up fabs in 2019, increasing their share of spending in China from 33% in 2017 to 45% in 2019.
  

china

• Enterprise key management market in Asia Pacific is expected to grow at a substantial CAGR during 2017 to 2023 owing to growing population and increased deployment of data security and compliance management solutions in China, Japan, and India in the region.
• Developing low-yield nuclear weapons is needed to counter threats from China and particularly from Russia.
• Over the next five years, six of ASEAN's economies will grow faster than China and every single one of ASEAN's economies will grow faster than both the United States and the European Union.
• The demand for super absorbent polymer is expected to surge in the various countries of Asia Pacific such as China, India, Japan, Thailand, South Korea.
• China will soon be imposing strict penalties for those with low "scores" on its so-called "social credit" system.
• Italian company X Electrical Vehicle expects to launch a 'mass-producible 3D-printed electric car' in China in 2019.
• The main bulk of new investment in renewable energy will be in Asian markets: China and India will be at the forefront of new investments for some considerable time to come.
• China will account for 28% and India 11% of total regional investment between 2017 and 2040.
• Plenty of American companies would be at risk in a trade war between the United States and China.
• Almost 20 percent of global demand for new airplanes will be from airlines based in China.
• China could feel more pressure to respond depending on what actions Trump takes on IP theft.
• Any hardcore EV policy such as going all-EV by 2030 will only increase the dependency on China.
• China is expected to witness significant growth in wearable infotainment owing to commoditization of electronic market such as battery-based wristwatches, mobile phones, laptops and others.
• The United States and China share a vital security interest: seeing Afghanistan stabilized as a country that will prevent groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda from exporting terrorist violence.

demand

• The demand for super absorbent polymer is expected to surge in the various countries of Asia Pacific such as China, India, Japan, Thailand, South Korea.
• Coal demand is expected to remain strong in China throughout 2018.
• Almost 20 percent of global demand for new airplanes will be from airlines based in China.
• China will continue to be a main driving force for the growth of global oil demand.
  

system

• The Pentagon has devised the so-called Third offset strategy to defeat the "pacing threat" from China by focusing on autonomous learning systems, human-machine collaborative decision-making, assisted human operations.

korea

• The China spending surge is forecast to accelerate it past Korea as the top spending region in 2019.
• Xi will be loath to provide a spark for criticism from Party elites now by being perceived as "helping" Trump on North Korea at the same time Trump is "harming" China on trade.
• China could become less willing to keep tightening the economic noose around North Korea.
• U.S. missile defenses currently are configured for countering missile threats from North Korea and Iran and are not capable of stopping strategic strikes from China and Russia.
• Of the three major esports countries -- South Korea, China and the U.S. -- PwC expects China to grow the fastest, at 26.3%, with the industry set to reach $182 million in 2021.
  

import

• China is already reviewing whether to restrict imports of American wheat and soybeans in response to previous tariffs, and experts say Beijing could expand that policy to other major U.S. imports, including technology, aircraft, and intellectual property.
• Beijing could increase its own discriminatory practices and further block U.S. imports and investment.
  

vehicle

• China is expected to see its vehicle inventory rise to 280 million vehicles in 2030.
• The State Grid Corporation of China forecast a 60-percent increase in the sale of electric vehicles in China.
• Electric vehicles will account for 15 percent of sales in Europe and 17 percent in China-the world's largest car market-in 2025.
• Italian company X Electrical Vehicle expects to launch a 'mass-producible 3D-printed electric car' in China in 2019.
• The US, Europe and China will lead the race in terms of having the world's first autonomous vehicles on road.
• China will impose a minimum requirement on production of new-energy vehicles in 2019.
  

war

• The Trump administration has argued that by subsidizing steel and aluminum production, other countries, particularly China, have undermined domestic metals production in ways that could leave the United States vulnerable in a war.
• Plenty of American companies would be at risk in a trade war between the United States and China.
• China will not be bullied by Trump's threat of a trade war.
  

economy

• China could get more with less if it relied less on bank credit and inefficient investment and more on central government borrowing and social spending to support its economy.
• Over the next five years, six of ASEAN's economies will grow faster than China and every single one of ASEAN's economies will grow faster than both the United States and the European Union.
• America complains that China is not a market economy but asks for a hard target that only a planned economy could hit.
• The brewing rivalry between the world's two largest economies could be the only topic that is likely to secure Mr Trump's re-engagement with Africa.
  

country

• The United States and China share a vital security interest: seeing Afghanistan stabilized as a country that will prevent groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda from exporting terrorist violence.
• 51% of work activities in China can be automated - more than any other country in the world.
• The Trump administration has argued that by subsidizing steel and aluminum production, other countries, particularly China, have undermined domestic metals production in ways that could leave the United States vulnerable in a war.

Please note: The graphs below are a selection from our extensive collection of visual analysis tools that you can manipulate on the Shaping Tomorrow service to suit your own purposes.

Systems map
The systems map below shows China's increasing global influence in the world and in many sectors that were traditionally led by Europe and North America. We recommend you explore the topics of interest to you on our website to gain full understanding of China's future influence and likely impact on your organization.

Pie charts
China's influence on the world is expected to be immense in the next 25 years, particularly as Xi, now President for life, continues with his plan for Asian and global dominance. The likelihood is very probable, the relevance of the emerging changes starting to really influence the world and the impact to be very financially significant.

Radar chart
This graphic shows the most likely and promising top sectors where China is likely to exert considerable inlfluence going forward.

Graphit
And here, the robot thinks that in five years China will be a leader in VR/AR/AI, education, construction, food and aviation. These are likely to drive its economy and increasing wealth.

​​Emerging topic

Year-on-year
China's influence on many sectors has grown rapidly since President Xi came to power in 2013 on a ticket of anti-corruption, consolidation of power, legal and economic reforms. His and China's influence are likely to grow substantially if efforts to control debt and financing succeed. The likely heavy toll of a trade war with the US will likely be a defining moment for Xi's presidency and his future plans.

Heat map
China's influence now extends to most of the populated world and may even include Greenland soon as it seeks to gain influence in the Arctic Circle. The US is pushing back with its tariff policies, efforts to control exportation of key US technologies to China and disputes over ownership of the South China Sea. Russia, meanwhile, now courts China as Europe increasingly turns its back.

Sources
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 16,379 forecasts in seconds on the 27th March 2018 to allow us to publish this summary in less than thirty minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish.

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Athena

Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents.

Athena is apolitical. She will report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not her purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, we recommend you check her veracity before responding to her extracted forecasts.

Just like humans, Athena can be fallible.

Do recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, she does not. She might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and she'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in her stride. But, please let us know if you feel her bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate her findings for yourself.

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