Turkey

WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

• [New] Despite going through a recession the Syrian economy will not completely collapse thanks to support from Russia and Iran: In the long term, aid will come from Turkey, India, China, Lebanon, etc.
• [New] Turkey will enter a new era as a "global power" and has promised to shore up the country's economy and continue military campaigns against Kurdish groups in Syria.
• Security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and border security coordination could improve U.S.-Turkish relations and reinforce stabilization efforts the United States is conducting in the east.
• The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey recently raised its inflation forecasts and now expects inflation to end this year at 8.4%.
• This year saw the deployment of Turkish troops to Qatar: Next year, military cooperation between the two states is expected to deepen, with more bilateral defence and security agreements, and more deployment of Turkish troops and equipment to Doha.
• The United States is neither going to launch a surprise attack on Turkey nor engage its putative NATO ally in the next several years.
• Ankara has been fighting a decades-long insurgency against Kurdish separatists inside its own country and considers the powerful Syrian Kurdish forces near its border to be a looming terrorist threat.
• Turkey should accept that the United States is going to continue to work with and provide support for the YPG in an on-going fight to make sure that ISIS cannot take back territory in eastern Syria.
• Russia could object to any agreement between the YPG and the Syrian government as it complicates its own diplomatic efforts with Turkey.
• The number of foreign visitors to Turkey was up 28 percent at 32.4 million in 2017 and is expected to rise further to more than 38 million this year.
• In Syria, the campaign against the Islamic State has stalled as America's Kurdish partners turn their attention toward the threat emanating from Turkey.
• De-escalating the competition among Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the Gulf States risks regional war and is setting conditions for a great-power conflict in the Middle East.
• Turkey expects the number of visitors from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands to rise in 2018.
• Ultimately Trump's proposed withdrawal would risk abandoning U.S. anti-Islamic State partners to Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the Syrian government.
• Turkey considers the YPG a threat to its national security and an extension of Kurdish insurgents inside Turkey.
• Turkey will use its military position as leverage in tripartite negotiations with Russia and Iran in Astana.
• Baghdad's close ties with Iran might force it to deny the United States and its partners a flight path through Iraq.
• Turkey says the YPG power across northern Syria is a threat, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to roll back the Kurdish fighters, starting from Manbij all the way to the Iraqi border.
• The impact of the Syria regional crisis on Turkey is significant and will continue to represent a major challenge in 2018.
• In Southern Europe, a total of 40 GW of new wind capacity is expected: Spain and Turkey will together add more than 13 GW worth of wind power capacity over the next ten years, and Italy will similarly contribute.
• The US should consider sharply escalating the pressures against Assad through covertly orchestrating simultaneous military threats against Syria from three border states hostile to Syria.
• Washington will have to signal to Ankara that any further military action against the YPG will trigger a strong reaction from the United States.
• The seizure of the predominantly Kurdish-populated Syrian town of Afrin by Turkish troops and the so-called Free Syrian Army opened up a new stage in the Syrian civil war that could rapidly escalate into a regional and even global war.

Last updated: 21 May 2018