Turkey

WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

Learn more about and read this partial, AI created forecast.  Then click through to the full forecast below. Next, click 'Respond' above to view the full forecast in exportable, spreadsheet form and to quickly set up a project to determine and prioritize your response options in just a few hours. Or, ask us for a more in-depth, professional research briefing and associated facilitated workshop. Kind regards, Athena

• [New] Turkey's president reiterated Saturday that new cross-border operations into Syria are in the works as the country boosts its military presence along the border against threats from Kurdish militants in war-torn Syria.
• [New] Prime Minister Yildirim recalled that Turkey was fighting three terrorist groups at the same time and stressed that the single most serious threat against the country was "regional instability".
• [New] Turkey will use all of its geopolitical might so that its hard-power objectives prevail over its soft-power approach in regard to Hagia Sophia in the medium and long term.
• [New] Turkey is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and having a Russian air defense system in its ranks will likely be frowned upon by other members.
• [New] Disputes between Germany and Turkey have put NATO surveillance flights over Turkey at risk.
• [New] Ankara will purchase two missile batteries from Russia within a year and co-produce two more in Turkey.
• [New] Turkey and four other countries could join the EU as soon as 2020.
• [New] The United States could have greater leverage in coordinating with Turkey, Qatar, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
• [New] Migrants arriving in Greece are expected to be sent back to Turkey if they do not apply for asylum.
• [New] Coal is projected to grow rapidly in India, Southeast Asia, Turkey.
• [New] China and Russia are looking literally to cement relationships with countries from Turkey and Jordan to Namibia and Belarus that will last for decades as they plan to construct and operate new power plants overseas.
• [New] By 2025, India and Turkey are expected to overtake Germany and Japan.
• [New] Turkey will be perceived if it's pursuing some kind of sectarian policy just because of the emerging Sunni-Shia divide in the region.
• [New] Erdogan will continue to press for progress in accession negotiations and the contentious visa liberalization issue as well as call on EU leaders to decide if they want Turkey as a member.
• [New] Georgian agriculture will still face tough competition from Israel, Turkey, and other countries.
• [New] GCC countries, Turkey, and Brazil are expected to offer lucrative opportunities in the ceramic tiles market during the forecast period.
• [New] Kurdistan will increasingly provide the ultimate geopolitical battleground for Turkey versus Iran.
• The EU will need to keep talking to Turkey about how to cope with the resulting instability.
• Turkey will not allow the creation of a Kurdish state in the north of Syria and is ready to carry out one more large-scale military operation at the slightest threat.
• In second major purge since referendum, Turkey expels over 3,900 people citing threat to national security.
• Efforts to build the Somali National Army could be improved through much better international coordination among the EU, U.S., UK, Turkey and Gulf states.
• ISIS is not that big of a threat for Turkey.
• Turkey will take any necessary measures to prevent new sea or land routes for irregular migration opening from Turkey to the European Union.

Last updated: 14 August 2017