Turkey

WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

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• [New] A digitized oil and gas supply chain could lower the suspicion of Turkey and Syria receiving oil purchases from terrorists.
• [New] Vodafone has been incentivising women in Turkey to buy mobile plans and using the network to find education and work opportunities.
• Turkey has blocked Wikipedia after passing a law that bans access to websites that are considered obscene or a threat to national security.
• In addition to the threat from terrorism by the Kurdistan Workers' Party and its offshoots that Turkey confronts.
• The U.S. has a range of counter-terrorism sanctions measures it can use to address the threat posed by al Qaeda-linked networks in Turkey.
• Turkey supports the KDP's desire to move against the PKK and has threatened to participate in a direct attack.
• Turkey perceives the American-supported YPG presence across its border with Syria as a major security threat.
• In Syria, the presence of Russian troops will probably prevent Turkey from venturing any farther south than al Bab in northern Aleppo.
• Chinese firms are helping construct a high-speed rail network in Turkey that Beijing's state media claims will help facilitate cross-continental trade.
• Ankara sees the PYD as part of the threat that the PKK is posing in Turkey.
• Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia will be locked competing to change the balance of power in Northern Iraq.
• In second major purge since referendum, Turkey expels over 3,900 people citing threat to national security.
• United States and allied military will be prohibited from much of Syrian airspace pursuant to a deal struck between Iran, Russia, and Turkey.
• Turkey's military presence in Northern Iraq will strengthen Sunni influence but also complicate relations with the central government in Baghdad.
• Turkey will take any necessary measures to prevent new sea or land routes for irregular migration opening from Turkey to the European Union.
• An increase in Kurdish terrorism will provide Erdogan with the opportunity to crack down viciously on the Kurdish population in southeast Turkey.
• Even if Turkey does agree to purchase Leviathan gas, Cyprus and Turkey's contested claims over maritime space could cause a headache.
• ISIS is not that big of a threat for Turkey.
• Turkey's rapid move away from Europe could prompt Turkish President Recep Erdogan to release a million Syrian refugees in Turkey into Europe and put the EU on thin ice.
• Turkey will be forced to support the rebels in Idlib in a future battle against the regime, Russia and their allies.
• America's relations with Turkey could face a setback as it gets further embroiled in the Turkish-Kurdish conflict as a result of the war against ISIS.
• Turkey has averaged growth rates of 3-4 percent in the past decade and is expected to become a high-income status country in the next decade due to its young population, substantial investment opportunities and improved education attainment..
• The crisis in Syria will remain a huge challenge for Turkey.

Last updated: 26 June 2017