Global Scans · Turkey · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

• [New] Turkey, led by Trump's friend Erdogan, fears that a large-scale US-Israel war against Iran could negatively affect it as well, and is playing the role of good cop in helping Washington achieve its goals through negotiation. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] A new imperialist attack on Iran, with its population of 93 million, carries the danger of turning into a regional war that rapidly draws in US-allied forces, including Turkey. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] In 2026, at least six Chinese car manufacturers have explored opportunities to establish operations in Turkey. Caliber.az
• [New] Turkey is preparing to sign a multi-billion-dollar energy agreement with the United States that could clear the way for the purchase of American F-35 fighter jets. Global Defense Corp
• [New] The Turkish Central Bank will likely continue cutting interest rates in 2026. Invezz
• [New] Inflation is projected to ease further to 23% by end-2026, with growth expected at 4.2%, as the current policy mix balances disinflation and steady expansion, strengthens reserves, and maintains adequate current account financing. / Turkey MUFG Research
• [New] NATO has stated that Turkey's participation in BRICS is a normal development and will not impact Ankara's significant role within the North Atlantic Alliance. Militarnyi
• [New] Turkey's potential participation in BRICS could become a key factor in its expansion, although no immediate developments are expected. Militarnyi
• [New] Over the past two decades, the Turkish Petroleum Corporation has pursued gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean with notable persistence, yet without producing the kind of breakthrough Ankara had hoped for. The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com
• [New] Unlike Iran, Turkey combines pragmatism with ideology, making it both credible and unpredictable. Middle East Monitor
• [New] If a new defence system is to be established in Europe, it is clear that it will not be sufficient without Turkey. Apa.az
• [New] While the S&P 500 remains at historically high valuation premiums, a CAPE-based analysis suggests superior expected returns in cheap EM markets like Brazil and Turkey, particularly as EM earnings are projected to finally break out of a 14-year plateau in 2026. The Emerging Markets Investor
• [New] Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is laying the groundwork for a dynastic succession - and disposing of democratic institutions that might obstruct it. The National Interest
• [New] Turkey, China, and the United Kingdom are rolling out or expanding emissions trading systems and border mechanisms, furthering the prediction that carbon data will soon be required everywhere. Facilities Management Advisor
• [New] Turkey exports are expected to decline 4% to 400 million pounds in 2026 due to limited supplies for exports and higher prices. DTN Progressive Farmer
• [New] Turkey fears that an influx of low-cost goods, for example textiles from India, could undermine the competitiveness of certain sectors of its economy. OSW Centre for Eastern Studies
• [New] Accelerating technology transfer to anti-Western regimes before Western export controls tighten, while exploiting Turkey's component dependencies and political tensions within NATO, could preserve access to Turkish drone technology and maintain strategic ambiguity in Ankara's alignment. Drone Warfare
• [New] Under another new High Visibility Project, five Allies (Denmark, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Turkey) will collaborate on innovative drone-based deep precision strike capabilities to meet existing and future operational requirements more efficiently. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
• [New] Escalating competition between the United States and China, along with the possibility of broader regional conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, could amplify economic vulnerabilities in countries like Turkey. Turkish Minute
• [New] Should Iran achieve a nuclear defence capability, its regional neighbours, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Egypt, would have a strong incentive to balance that potential. GIS Reports
• [New] Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan announced today an upward revision to Turkey's 2026 year-end inflation forecast range, citing mounting risks and volatility in key indicators. Bianet
• [New] How Israel and Turkey adjudicate their respective roles will have implications for security and stability across Syria. Brookings

Last updated: 02 March 2026