Turkey

• [New] A new ban in Turkey will prohibit crypto holders from using their digital assets for payments in addition to preventing payments providers from providing fiat onramps for crypto exchanges.
• [New] The alternative - bilateral cross-border support - will not sufficiently meet needs on the ground, will place even greater responsibility on Turkey, and will increase the prospect of Western confrontation with Russia and the Syrian regime.
• [New] Others receive N82 visa stamps on their travel documents, falsely labeling them as a threat to public health, safety and/or order and making their return to Turkey impossible.
• [New] Turkey's role in Afghanistan and Central Asia will challenge its relationship with Russia, which is already under strain in Libya, Syria, Caucasus and potentially in the Black Sea and the Balkans.
• [New] Conflicts that have simmered may flare, particularly if Russia, Turkey, and other countries intervene, increasing the risk of escalations and miscalculations.
• [New] Turkey's support for Azerbaijan in its latest war with Armenia could have much greater ramifications, with Turkey using Azerbaijan's geographic position as a springboard to reach out to Central Asia.
• [New] People are imprisoned in Turkey for minor criticism that might not land them in prison in China, Russia or Iran - leading to questions over why NATO-member Turkey is now one of the most authoritarian regimes in the world.
• [New] Following all the precautions included in the M POWER (Monitor, Protect, Offer, Warn, Enforce, Raise) policy package, Turkey is recognized as one of the leading countries in tobacco control by the World Health Organization.
• [New] Actual price increases in Turkey will, as a result, accelerate.
• [New] The third wave of coronavirus across Europe is of concern for CEE FX while possible sanction risk and monetary policy are concerns for RUB in Russia and TRY in Turkey, respectively.
• The 50,000-strong Uighur community in Turkey has raised fears that new shipments of the Chinese vaccine could end up being dependent on Turkey ratifying an extradition treaty approved in Beijing last year.
• More recently, a maritime row between Turkey and Greece stoked tensions last year with the EU threatening sanctions against Ankara.
• Turkey has increasingly been threatening its neighbors in Greece and causing controversy with the US and NATO by acquiring Russian weapon systems.
• Investors will turn their attention this week to inflation data across emerging markets as they seek clues on the path for monetary policy after Turkey, Russia and Brazil raised borrowing costs last month.
• We continue to expect only a very gradual recovery in international travel, which will weigh on the economies where tourism is an important source of employment and foreign currency revenues, such as Thailand and Turkey.
• Deeper cooperation within the EU eastern neighbourhood in the energy sector will enhance EU capabilities to drive economic growth and limit the influence of Moscow and Beijing.
• China may sense an opening in the Middle East, given the priority the Biden administration has placed on human rights - which could complicate already scratchy ties with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey - and the perpetually thorny talks to restart the Iran nuclear deal.
• Turkey is reinstating weekend lockdowns in most of Turkey's Provinces and will also impose restrictions over the Muslim holy month of Ramadan following a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases.
• With Turkey also tilting away from the US towards China and Iran, despite Ankara's and Tehran's differences in Syria, the de facto alliances emerging in a strategically and economically vital region of the world poses a greater challenge to the Biden administration than may have been anticipated.
• Iraq will continue to be at the crossroads of several regional and international issues - relations between the United States and Iran and between Iran and the Gulf monarchies, as well as Turkey's regional ambitions.

Last updated: 19 April 2021