Global Scans · Turkey · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

• [New] Turkey's ideal scenario - a managed degradation of Iran's ambitions and capabilities - might be best served by a Venezuela-style leadership transition. Project Syndicate
• [New] If the CBRT can continue its disinflationary path without triggering a sharp slowdown in growth, it will signal that Turkey is on a more stable trajectory. Ainvest
• [New] While Turkey stands on the side of regional stability and peace, it is fully capable of safeguarding its territory and citizens against threats from any actor or direction. UANI
• [New] Analysts warn the prolonged trial risks investor confidence, democratic norms, and could set precedents for silencing political opposition in Turkey. Ainvest
• [New] There is risk of terrorist violence, including terrorist attacks and other activity in Turkey. U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Turkiye
• [New] Retaliatory Iranian missiles appeared to target Turkey this week, leading to speculation about whether or not European nations might be forced to involve themselves in America's war with Iran thanks to NATO Article 5. NPR
• [New] Independent risk analysis from International Crisis Group argues Turkish drone export success is significant geopolitically and commercially but carries escalation and regional stability risks - an important reminder that drone proliferation changes not only tactics but diplomacy. Brendon's Substack
• [New] For Turkey, that compromise preserves access to one of its most important economic relationships but also signals that deeper integration with the EU will increasingly depend on regulatory convergence. Nordic Monitor
• [New] GDP growth is likely to strengthen in 2027 as pre-election spending is expected to rise (increasing social benefits and public sector wages). / Turkey EY
• [New] Turkey: growth is projected to fluctuate in the 3-4% range as potential growth is lower than in the past due to less favorable demographics. EY
• [New] The coming days are likely to test Turkey's influence and the broader international community's ability to contain a conflict that threatens both regional security and global energy stability. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] With global oil markets on edge and the Gulf facing heightened tensions, Turkey's outreach could be pivotal in preventing a wider escalation. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] Turkish officials are particularly concerned about the potential disruption to energy supplies, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for one-fifth of global oil trade. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] Analysts at Citigroup say countries with low FX reserves, such as Argentina, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Turkey, face heightened risks of sudden capital outflows and currency depreciation. Edge and Odds -
• [New] Gas exports from Iran to Turkey could be at risk, potentially prompting Turkish buyers to seek additional LNG cargoes. WoodMac.Site.Features.Shared.ViewModels.Metadata.Publis
• [New] Broader macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, interest rate expectations, and trade balance developments, will influence how the export figures are interpreted in the context of Turkey's overall economic trajectory. Ainvest
• [New] Turkey's interest in joining may serve as a means to exert pressure on its Western partners, NATO, and other BRICS members, who could benefit from Ankara's involvement. Militarnyi
• For Israeli leaders, basing in Somaliland is an opportunity to counterbalance encirclement from Turkey just as much as from Iran and its proxies. Middle East Forum
• Turkey's central bank raised its end of 2026 inflation forecast range to from 13-19 percent to 15-21 percent and projected inflation at between 6 and 12% at the end of 2027. Turkish Minute
• Turkey, led by Trump's friend Erdogan, fears that a large-scale US-Israel war against Iran could negatively affect it as well, and is playing the role of good cop in helping Washington achieve its goals through negotiation. World Socialist Web Site
• A new imperialist attack on Iran, with its population of 93 million, carries the danger of turning into a regional war that rapidly draws in US-allied forces, including Turkey. World Socialist Web Site

Last updated: 16 March 2026