Turkey

• [New] China will only lend political support to the ITI, and that Beijing expects Iran, Pakistan and Turkey to bear the project costs.
• [New] There is a risk that 2021 growth could turn out to be much weaker in tourism-dependent economies of Central Europe, Turkey and the Western Balkans.
• [New] Despite the current pandemic situation affecting the globe, geopolitical tension has significantly increased in the Middle East and Turkey and will likely continued till the end of 2021.
• [New] Kosovo's President Hashim Thaci, meanwhile, was on the phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, trying to assuage fears about the decision to recognize Israel expressed by Turkey and the Arab League group of countries.
• For the major importing countries of Black Sea wheat, including Egypt and Turkey, the US Department of Agriculture expects imports at 123.65 million mt in the 2020-21 marketing year, up 1.2% from 122.16 million mt in 2019-20.
• By 2030, TOGG will produce and own the intellectual and industrial property rights of five different electric vehicle models in Turkey - SUV, b-SUV, sedan, c-hatchback, and b-MPV.
• While most countries sought to stay on top of the unfolding health and economic crisis at home, 2020 saw Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan double down on his neo-Ottoman ambitions to project Turkish power across the Eastern Mediterranean and into the Middle East.
• While some Western analysts say U.S. sanctions on Turkey for its purchase of Russia's S-400 missile defense system threaten NATO as a longstanding alliance, other experts say it will consolidate ties between regional powers in West Asia.
• An early alliance management test will arrive in the form of managing relations with a fractious NATO ally in Turkey, which Israel's Mossad chief has suggested is even more of a threat to the stability of the Middle East than Iran.
• A surprise inflation spike has the potential to derail central bank plans for accommodative monetary policy in 2021, as we saw in Turkey in the second half of 2020.
• Development of TPAO's recent Tuna-1 gas discovery in the Black Sea could save Turkey up to $21 billion in gas/LNG import costs.
• Turkey Fitch has upgraded its GDP forecast for Turkey and now expects a fall of 3.2% in 2020 (from -3.9% in the June GEO).
• Total length of high-speed railways in Turkey by 2023 once the planned projects with total length of 4,300 km are completed.
• Total length of motorways (toll roads) in Turkey by 2035 once the 660 km currently under construction and the 4,600 km of planned projects are completed.
• Brazil, Thailand, India, Turkey and Indonesia currently have the highest amounts of maturing debt by the end of 2022.
• Turkey's third drillship, Kanuni, will begin exploration in the Black Sea in early 2021 and will operate alongside the drillship Fatih, which made earlier in 2020 a natural gas discovery in the Black Sea, which Turkey says is its largest-ever gas find.
• Over the next few years, Belarus will be joined by Bangladesh and Turkey as new nuclear energy countries.
• Automotive Suppliers Association of Turkey expects exports for the whole year to drop by 20%, costing Turkey about $6 billion.
• Turkey is in talks over oil and gas exploration in Libya, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's administration seeks business opportunities in the conflict-ridden North African country.
• The construction sector in many emerging economies will see a double-digit contraction in 2020, notably Turkey, Mexico and Brazil, as they enter a deep recession and face financing issues.
• Torn between financial markets that demand higher interest rates and President Erdogan who expects easier policy, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will probably keep interest rates on hold in 2020.
• The United States will need to ensure that the impact of its pressure and conditionality on Somalia are not undermined by other external actors, including Turkey, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.

Last updated: 18 January 2021