Saudi Arabia

DRIVER: Saudi Arabia could see some tumultuous economic policy changes provoked by the lower oil price era and the emerging challenge from renewable energies. It also faces threats from Middle East turmoil.

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• [New] Instability in Saudi Arabia due to internal power struggles and the low oil price could lead to a revolution or a civil war.
• Methanol production could possible be produced domestically from high ash coal with a 5,000 ton per day facility potentially online by 2023 instead of continuing to import from Saudi Arabia and Iran.
• Saudi Arabia will have to carry a much heavier burden of production cuts if the intent is to increase oil prices.
• Iraq could become another country where Saudi Arabia and Iran vie for influence in coming years.
• Iran will take the lead on capacity PE expansion while Saudi Arabia will remain the region's largest producer.
• Investors remain doubtful that OPEC-led production cuts will clear a global glut as Russia and Saudi Arabia appear to be less committed than earlier in the year.
• The United States could have greater leverage in coordinating with Turkey, Qatar, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
• Saudi Arabia perceived the declaration as posing a major threat to its political authority and the nature of relations between Saudi Arabia and the Brotherhood has deteriorated.
• The United States will resume the delivery of precision-guided weapons sold to Saudi Arabia in a 2015 weapons deal.
• Any country that defies the Saudis or the United Arab Emirates could face ostracism as Qatar has.
• The U.S. will soon start delivering smart bombs to Saudi Arabia that were part of a 2015 arms package.
• Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia will have to be more open to US demands.
• Saudi Arabia and Russia are right to be worried about the potential extension of this oil glut.
• Saudi Arabia and the Arab states could use economic deals to reinforce an amenable partner in Abadi.
• A sale of anti-Houthi weapons to Saudi Arabia that even the Obama administration rejected was hastily approved by the new Administration and soon will be deployed in Saudi Arabia's war of aggression against its neighbor.
• The very survival of Saudi Arabia is at risk given that the International Energy Agency estimates no more than one-third of proven global reserves of fossil fuels can be burned if the planet is to stay within the Paris Agreement's limits.
• Iran will not launch a full regional war against Saudi Arabia or Israel.
• The Muslim Brotherhood is seen as more politically threatening in the closed systems of Saudi Arabia and the UAE where Brotherhood-linked individuals participated in calls for reform during the Arab Spring.
• In Yemen, the United States will cut off the military, intelligence and logistics support it is providing to Saudi Arabia and coalition forces.
• Terrorism poses just as much of a threat to Qatar as it does to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and every other nation.
• Iran maybe attacked now by ISIS on its very soil or threatened by Saudi Arabia or Israel but the challenges from within are much greater.
• Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies see the Muslim Brotherhood as a threat.
• Qatar, the world's largest liquefied natural gas producer will have to adapt its strategy now that its state-owned natural gas carriers are banned from using bunkering locations in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.

Last updated: 13 August 2017