Global Scans · Italy · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: The Italian economy is already in a fragile state and a now likely period of political uncertainty would be likely to do further damage. In particular, Italy's banking industry is seen as vulnerable to a loss of confidence. Italy could be the next domino to fall out of the EU through increasing populist party support.

• [New] Allocations to Emerging Markets have recently increased in Italian client portfolios despite a volatile geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, as investors seek diversification and growth opportunities, particularly in Asia, accessed through active management. MarketScreener
• [New] In a worst-case scenario where hostilities drag on, Italy's 2026 growth could shrink by a further 0.5 percentage points, and 2027 could lose a full percentage point off its forecast, a significant blow to an already fragile recovery. International Finance
• [New] The rise in costs has led to a reevaluation of growth forecasts, with the Italian government expected to cut its 2026 economic growth estimate to around 0.5% from the previous 0.7% projection. Ainvest
• [New] Italy may cut 2026 growth forecasts to 0.5% amid rising costs and supply chain disruptions. Ainvest
• [New] Recently, the Italian secret services drafted a confidential report on the operating scenarios of the threat from global terrorism, in which they do not rule out a 10-kiloton atomic attack by al-Qaeda on a city or the hypothesis of an attack using chemical weapons. Elcano Royal Institute
• [New] Central and Eastern Europe shows the fastest relative growth, driven by transport and logistics, while Southern Europe is mixed: Turkey's rapid growth will be underpinned by urbanization and transport; Spain and Italy will prioritise social infrastructure and power. PwC
• [New] The trajectory of the Italian economy this year will depend on the duration and scale of the conflict in Iran and the extent of damage to energy infrastructure. Intesa Sanpaolo Group
• [New] Italy will ban the killing of male chicks starting in 2027, ending the deaths of 34 million birds every year. AOL.com
• [New] The Italian economy will grow by 0.5% in 2026 (against 0.6% estimated in December). Il Sole 24 ORE
• [New] Growth in 2026 would be 0.8% and could exceed 1.0% in 2027. / Italy CaixabankResearch
• Predictive Analysis: At least two NATO member militaries beyond Italy will likely initiate formal evaluation trials of the Fiocchi counter-drone ammunition following its Enforce Tac 2026 presentation, given the low integration cost and documented Italian Armed Forces involvement. Drone Warfare
• LEAPMOTOR B05 TARGETS EUROPE WITH LOW PRICES Leapmotor's B05 compact hatchback will launch in Europe starting at €26,900 in Italy, undercutting every major rival by at least €10,000, including the Volkswagen ID.3 at €40,990, the BYD Dolphin at €35,000 and the MG4 at €34,000. Apple Podcasts
• Earlier on Wednesday, the Italian national statistics bureau confirmed that Italy posted a budget deficit of 3.1% of GDP in 2025, dashing Rome's hopes of exiting an EU disciplinary procedure in 2026 for its excessive deficit. Euronews
• By 2030, Italy could be dealing with hundreds of thousands of tons of panel waste, significantly impacting collection and treatment systems. ExpoClima
• Launched in 2022, GCAP is a trilateral initiative between Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy aimed at fielding a sixth-generation stealth combat aircraft by 2035. Ronin's Grips Analytics
• Italy has delayed coal phase-out to 2038. youth4planet
• Italy's national carrier ITA Airways reports it is expecting to deliver more than 7,100 tons of fuel savings and 22,100 tons of CO2 across 2025 and 2026 as a result of deploying SITA's OptiFlight AI-powered tool. GreenAir News
• At least one additional NATO European navy operating a ski-jump or short-deck carrier could publicly express interest in the TB-3 or request a demonstration, correlating with the visibility generated by Italy's announcement and the TB-3's NATO exercise performance record. Drone Warfare
• Italy will need to speed up the rollout of reforms if it is to benefit from all the resources allocated to it before the deadline for disbursements in 2026. Coface
• The consolidation of public finances will proceed gradually and could enable Italy to exit the European excessive deficit procedure - initiated in 2024 - as early as 2026. Coface

Last updated: 08 May 2026