Argentina

WHAT'S NEXT?: Argentina domestic activity will be held back by rising inflation and the impact of numerous policy-induced economic distortions.

Regional growth is expected to contract in 2020 as the three main economies (Brazil, Mexico and Argentina) of the region fall in recession.
Argentina's economy is expected to contract for the third straight year in 2020 with inflation above 50%, high unemployment and a third of population living below the poverty line.
As activity in Brazil gathers pace amid improving investment conditions, policy uncertainty in Mexico fades, and the recession in Argentina eases after bouts of severe market stress, regional growth is projected to rise to 1.8 percent in 2020 and about 2.4 percent in 2021.
Mexico fades, and the recession in Argentina eases after bouts of severe market stress, regional growth is projected to rise to 1.8 percent in 2020 and about 2.4 percent in 2021.
In 2020 Latin American airlines will be helped by the rebound to 1.8% growth forecast by the IMF, led by stronger growth in Brazil and Mexico and less severe contractions in Argentina and Venezuela.
The robust demand for U.S. soybean meal exports in 2018/19 will be tempered next year by a recovery of production by Argentina - the world's top exporter of soybean products.
An increase of bovine and sheep products is projected as the year draws to a close, in Argentina, Brazil, the European Union and the United States.
Fernández will take office with Argentina in recession; IHS Markit expects its GDP to contract 2.7 percent and inflation to reach 51.8 percent in 2019.
In 2019, average GDP growth in developing countries could fall below 4.0 per cent, amid lingering fragilities in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa, and weaker economic conditions in Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.0 per cent in 2020 as economic conditions in Argentina and Brazil improve gradually.
Projected strengthening reflects expected recovery in Brazil and in Mexico (as uncertainty gradually subsides), together with less severe contractions for 2020 compared to this year in Argentina and Venezuela.
Adspend shrank 33% in dollar terms in Argentina in 2018, and forecast a decline by another 16% 2019, depressing Latin America's growth prospects for the year.
The crisis in Argentina is having a strong impact on Brazil's gross domestic product: The crisis in the neighboring country will reduce Brazil's GDP by 0.5 points this year, to around 1.1%.
Researchers also found that the risk of the world's top four corn exporters (U.S., Brazil, Argentina and the Ukraine) suffering simultaneous crop failures of 10 percent or more is about 7 percent with a 2 ˚ C increase in temperature.
Argentina's state-run YPF will be investing as much as $30 billion over the next four years, with stated expectations of increasing daily oil production by 5 percent a year.
Wood Mackenzie, assuming no great changes are made, sees Argentina LNG ramping in 2024 with LNG production volumes reaching 6 million metric ton / year, which could then grow to 10 mmty by 2030.
With relatively low fertility rates the young-age dependency ratio is projected to be lower in 2065 than it was in 2015 in several G20 members, dropping by more than 10 points in India, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Argentina.
In Argentina, GDP growth is projected to increase to -1.3 percent in 2019 and 1.1 percent in 2020 due to a recovery in agricultural production and a gradual rebuilding of consumer purchasing power, following the sharp compression of real wages last year.
The somewhat quicker global growth predicted for next year is based mainly on an expected improvement in four severely stressed emerging economies - Turkey, Argentina, Iran and Venezuela.
Argentina will be joining the ranks of exporters of liquefied natural gas next year when it stars exporting gas from its Vaca Muerta shale play, one of the few shale gas plays in production outside the US.
Colombia is expected to see 3.2% growth this year - higher than Brazil, Mexico and Argentina.

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Last updated: 21 May 2020