Argentina

• [New] Argentina's economy is expected to grow 5, 5% in 2021, after a contraction of about 12% last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with inflation seen ending the year at 49.8%.
• [New] Britain suffered the most severe contraction of any Group of Seven economy in the second quarter of 2020 and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has estimated Britain's recovery by the end of 2021 will be the slowest of all its member countries except Argentina.
• [New] Argentina's commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 means more than half of G20 countries would be covered by a net zero goal if president elect Joe Biden follows through on his own election promise in 2021.
• [New] Bolivia's declining gas production and increasing domestic demand is expected to drive exports to its two neighbors to just 3 bcm in 2025, a third of current levels.
• While the IMF forecasts the global economy to shrink by 4.4% and (and 8.1% in Latin America's - the worst among the world's major regions), MercadoLibre celebrated a 45% increase in gross profits for the first half of 2020.
• Argentina received USD 35 million emergency support from the World Bank, USD 50 million from the regional development bank CAF (which will also lend USD 4 billion to finance projects in the coming four years) and USD 1.8 billion from the Inter-American Development Bank.
• Latin American economies, where infections are still rising, saw some of the largest downgrades, with Brazil's economy now expected to shrink 9.1%, Mexico's 10.5% and Argentina's 9.9% in 2020.
• US corn market share is expected to increase from the 2019-20 multi-year low but remains below the average level seen during 2015-16 to 2019-20 with expected competition from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.
• By Argentina not having a debt-relief deal already in place with the IMF, as is best practice, bondholders are naturally concerned that the payments that would otherwise be made to them will be redirected to pay down the IMF.
• The absence of reforms to boost exports and growth could undermine Argentina's ability to sustain growth, maintain external balance, and rebuild international reserves.
• Ample supplies from Brazil, the US and Argentina will continue to put downward pressure on world and EU beef prices in the coming years.
• Brazil and Argentina, two of South America's more powerful economies, will face a natural gas supply crunch by 2025, as imports from Bolivia dwindle and barriers remain to expanding their own domestic gas resources.
• Agricultural exports from South America - primarily Argentina, Brazil, Guyana, Paraguay, and Uruguay - are projected to expand 10.5% over the next decade, accounting for 5.4% of global trade.
• In 2029/30, Argentina, Brazil, and the United States are projected to account for 51, 15, and 8% of world soybean oil exports by 2029/30, respectively.
• Global milk production is expected to grow by 1% in 2020 (AHDB) primarily led by the US, EU and Argentina, offsetting lower anticipated production in Australia following recent droughts.
• Higher wheat forecasts in several countries, especially Australia, the Russian Federation and India, will likely outweigh smaller crops expected in Argentina, Ukraine, the United States of America and, most notably, the European Union.
• Argentina's default and predicted election result mean an additional year of deep economic contraction in 2020, and heightened political risk for companies.
• Argentina and Iran are expected to emerge from recessions in 2020, and prospects are expected to improve for six countries that struggled with slowdowns in 2019: Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
• After 2025, 80% of growth in shale / tight gas is forecast to come from outside the United States, primarily from growth in Canada, Argentina and China, as well as smaller quantities in Australia, Algeria, Saudi Arabia and India.
• In South America, cereal production is forecast to reach a new record high in 2020 underpinned by large maize plantings in Brazil and Argentina, as weak currencies boosted export demand and incentivized farmers.
• Genetically engineered drought-tolerant soybeans have been approved in the US, Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina - where they are expected to be planted later this year.

Last updated: 14 January 2021