China

WHAT'S NEXT?: Any disruption in economic activity between China and the United States will necessarily affect other Asian and world economies. How China handles Donald Trump's administration, its relationship with Russia and develops its leadership ambitions will be key areas to watch intently in the coming years.

• [New] 35% of urban population growth in the world will be concentrated in the cities of India, China, and Nigeria.
• [New] China must show greater flexibility both to reduce financial risk and address genuine concerns from some of the world's weakest economies of its intentions.
• [New] The US has threatened to impose 25 per cent punitive duties on up to US$150 billion in Chinese goods while China has targeted US$50 billion in American exports.
• [New] China may see an opportunity to strike energy deals with the Iran despite the American sanctions.
• [New] China's refusal to accept U.S. recycling could lead to increased costs and missed environmental goals.
• [New] US and Russia may see zero sum game threats from North Korea and China building more nuclear warheads.
• [New] The U.S., China, Japan and South Korea are expected to deploy 5G earlier than other parts of the world.
• [New] 35 percent of the projected growth of the world's urban population between 2018 and 2050 will be in only a few countries - notably China, India and Nigeria.
• [New] China's energy mix continues to evolve with coal's dominance predicted to decline from 62 percent in 2016 to 36 percent in 2040.
• [New] Electric vehicles (EVs) will account for 90 per cent of car sales globally by 2050, while China is expected to maintain a 50 per cent share of global pure EV sales until 2030
• [New] China could turn to more oil imports from U.S. shale producers since U.S. shale oil supply offers high quality light sweet crude.
• [New] Initiatives taken by the Chinese government to curb VOC emissions threaten to dampen the growth of the electronics adhesives in China.
• [New] China could enforce any declaration of an air defence identification zone over part or all of the South China Sea.
• [New] China could increase its ethanol imports as the government expands its use in vehicles nationwide by 2020.
• [New] The US has outlined aggressive targets for reducing its trade deficit with China and will continue to insist on looser technology-transfer requirements for US firms operating in China.
• [New] Asia Pacific is expected to experience the fastest growth during the forecasted period due to the economic growth of China and India.
• [New] China, Russia, and the US are liable to play a highly disruptive role across the UN system in the years ahead.
• [New] U.S. trade tensions with China is on hold after the world's largest economies agreed to drop their tariff threats while they work on a wider trade agreement.
• [New] The United States expects to see a big increase of between 35 percent and 40 percent in agricultural exports to China this year alone and a doubling of energy purchases over the next three to five years.
• [New] The reprieve for ZTE could include China removing tariffs on imported U.S. agricultural products.
• [New] China might eliminate tariffs on U.S. agriculture products it assessed in response to U.S. steel duties.
• [New] 40% custom duty is applied to Chinese scrap exports, owing to which Chinese scrap exports may discontinue and will use its scrap for the expanding EAF production.
• [New] The growing EAF capacity in China will be a key determining factor of Graphite Electrode prices this year.

Last updated: 25 May 2018