Global Scans · China · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Any disruption in economic activity between China and the United States will necessarily affect other Asian and world economies. How China handles Donald Trump's administration, its relationship with Russia and develops its leadership ambitions will be key areas to watch intently in the coming years.

• [New] As the Australian analysis suggests, most governments that pursue sovereign AI will not have full control of the technology (for context, neither do the United States and China - the world's AI leaders - though both are much closer to full control than almost any other nation). Default
• [New] India and China will continue to have the highest number of children in the 2050s, with approximately 350 million in India and 141 million in China. UN News
• [New] The EU and other countries have recently imposed import tariffs on Chinese EV exports, which could affect local production and exports. atradius
• [New] Major economies, including China, India, Japan, South Korea and Germany, are projected to face substantial clean energy shortfalls by mid-century. The Superpower Institute
• [New] The Chinese government can make its economy more resilient in the face of U.S. pressure and rally its population against U.S. economic coercion in ways that will only diminish popular support for the Western-led rules-based international system. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• [New] Mexico-US shipping routes have cost and speed advantages compared to China, costing around $5,000 for a single container vs $18,000 and taking 5-10 days vs 60 days in China, the latter of which has doubled due to supply chain disruptions. The Business of Fashion
• [New] With China expanding its nuclear capabilities and Russia threatening NATO allies, Congress has directed the Air Force to be prepared to restore nuclear-delivery capabilities onto additional B-52s. The American Legion
• [New] China will take all available means to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of domestic industries, as reported by Chinese state media. Council on Foreign Relations
• [New] One area that Trump will focus on heavily is tariffs, putting China, the EU, and Mexico at the highest risk. I by IMD
• [New] A strategy that calls for smashing Chinese military forces in and around the Taiwan Strait might seem like it offers a straight line to victory, but it could leave the United States poorly positioned for a long fight. War on the Rocks
• [New] China's aggressive push toward building hydrogen refueling stations by 2025, with expectations of integrating hydrogen into public transportation, underscores its strategic vision to reduce fossil fuel dependency and improve air quality in urban areas. Intelligent Living
• [New] US-China relations could become more volatile when Trump returns to office in two months, driven by factors including a promise to raise tariffs on Chinese imports. BBC News
• [New] Emissions will most likely decline in 2024 in the United States and Europe, and fossil fuel use in China slowed. Thomas P.M. Barnett's Global Throughlines
• [New] Some experts commenting in Chinese state media have voiced fear that the acquisition of combat experience by North Korean troops could destabilize the Korean Peninsula's balance of power, potentially emboldening Kim Jong Un to attack the South. United States Institute of Peace
• [New] Maintenance and repair services for the next five years will be provided by Thales for its avionics equipment on China Eastern Airlines' A320, A330 and B737 fleet. Thales Group
• [New] The Kim-Putin partnership risks adding economic pressure on China, and it undermines Beijing's argument that the U.S. should not have military alliances in the Indo-Pacific region. Stars and Stripes
• [New] EFTA's keen interest in joint ventures presents opportunities for India to reduce its dependency on Chinese imports. Edelman Global Advisory
• [New] India anticipates USD 100 billion FDI from EFTA over 15 years, fostering joint ventures to diversify imports from China. Edelman Global Advisory
• [New] Trump imposing tariffs on China could lead to a glut of exports destined for the US being diverted to other markets - which could force decisions in the EU and UK about how to respond. The Guardian
• [New] The port, a cooperative project between Peru and China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), will reduce sea shipping time from Peru to China to 23 days, cutting logistics costs by at least 20%. PR Newswire
• [New] The IEA projected a 1 million barrel per day supply surplus in 2025, while OPEC lowered its 2023 and 2025 demand outlooks, citing persistent weakness in key markets such as China and India. Top Traders Unplugged
• Emissions are projected to decrease in the EU and US in 2024, increase slightly in China, and increase significantly in India and the rest of the world. Carbon Brief

Last updated: 22 November 2024