Military

• [New] The threat from the Taliban to the US is judged to be at a level where a military presence is no longer required.
• [New] There are still risks: Iran has a long relationship with North Korea, with which it has exchanged missile technology, and officials have for years been concerned that Iran might seek to buy proven nuclear-weapons technology from the North.
• [New] While the US military is going about cobbling together a defense against the Chinese in the Indo-Pacific, Wall Street and US businesses are pouring tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars into China each year.
• [New] Iran has never given up efforts to obtain nuclear weapons and that Israel will not allow Tehran to build them.
• [New] China, Russia, and other foreign states continued to covertly gather political, economic, and military information in Canada through targeted threat activities in support of their own state development goals.
• [New] The US military has shifted from discussing space situational awareness to space domain awareness recently, reflecting growing concerns about threats to military assets in orbit.
• [New] There are questions in Israel about US intentions in shifting military priorities away from the Middle East in order to focus more intensively on China and Russia as more significant threats to US security.
• [New] Netanyahu has for years described Iran as an existential threat to his nation due to Iran's alleged pursuit of a nuclear weapon and its support for militant groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah.
• [New] As far as NATO is concerned, China's economic and industrial modernization is not of paramount importance; instead, it has been China's exertion of global and regional military power, acts of aggression, and China's infrastructure projects and economic assistance that threaten the cohesion of NATO.
• [New] IGAD heads of state threaten punitive actions against the South Sudanese belligerents, specifically mentioning travel bans, asset freezes, and an arms embargo, as well as the threat of direct military intervention.
• [New] The JCPOA called for Iran to freeze nuclear activities that could be weaponized in return for sanctions relief from world powers.
• [New] Days after India's Chief of Defence Staff warned against growing threats of Chinese cyber-attacks, it has now emerged that New Delhi will seek US assistance to protect its military infrastructure from Chinese hackers.
• [New] Russia is massing huge military firepower on the border of the disputed Donbass region in eastern Ukraine as it threatens full-scale combat operations.
• [New] There are some ominous signs from Brazil that new variants will elude people's immune defenses acquired from last year's COVID-19, but other studies suggest that, even if antibodies wane, T-cell memory will confer protection even against new variants.
• [New] By 2040 China will be the most significant rival to the United States in space, competing on commercial, civil and military fronts.
• [New] An increase in the Pentagon budget will only feed contractor greed and increase the likelihood of more military conflicts in more places.
• [New] Defense programs will see a modest 1.7% spending bump in 2022, which administration officials said would largely cover pay increases for military members and the civilian employees who support them.
• [New] Global crude supplies could increase as Iran and major world powers took steps toward reviving an agreement that froze Iran's nuclear weapons development.
• [New] Along with military exercises, China has been sending warplanes on practically a daily basis into Taiwan's air defense identification zone to pressure the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen and advertise its threat of military action.
• [New] Some Council members, including the European members, may strongly condemn the military's actions, while others - such as China, India, Russia and Viet Nam - are expected to use milder language.
• [New] Whilst RCEP presents opportunities in ASEAN, the military coup in Myanmar is a great concern and may have destabilising effects on the strategic environment of ASEAN.
• [New] China could contemplate reassuring the United States that it is not going to take a number of steps to enable much quicker launches of nuclear weapons, such as mating nuclear warheads to missiles, pre-delegating launch authority to local commanders, or exercising launch-on-warning nuclear attacks.
• [New] Over the next few years, as the United States invests heavily in improving its overall command and control capabilities, it will likely integrate capabilities that used to be held and operated separately by each military service.

Last updated: 15 April 2021