Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Peace and stability in Asia could no longer be taken for granted, especially given mounting strategic tensions surrounding maritime trade routes and territorial disputes. The Vibes
• [New] Australia's import reliance on fertilizers has long highlighted the structural risks of relying on distant, geopolitically exposed supply origins. Discovery Alert
• [New] Lawmakers have halted a key relief measure to shield workers from higher prices, Donald Trump is threatening 25% tariffs on European cars and trucks and markets expect the European Central Bank to hike interest rates. financialpost
• [New] US LNG has become a critical input for economies all over the world, but our ability to deliver it will depend on export infrastructure that can match demand. Atlantic Council
• [New] Chile concentrates a significant portion of its export production in areas sensitive to heavy rainfall, with logistical infrastructure that could be compromised by extreme episodes. Blueberries Consulting
• [New] The Trump Administration is now starting to pay out refunds for the reciprocal and Fentanyl tariffs that the US Supreme Court declared illegal which could amount to $US166bn. FinSec Partners
• [New] In a scenario where U.S.-China trade tensions escalate or export controls tighten, a germanium supply disruption would propagate not just through AZUR but through the entire GaAs cell production base. The Journal of Space Commerce
• [New] Supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainties, are impacting the timely delivery of raw materials and finished products. Market Research Intellect
• [New] Global trade restructuring could become one of the defining economic trends of 2026. Informosio
• [New] Trade fragmentation and regional competition are reshaping global commerce faster than expected. Informosio
• [New] The efforts to accelerate China's tariff reduction commitments under the RCEP framework, especially on intermediate goods, and to further open up services trade will provide enormous new growth engines for RCEP cooperation. Morningstar, Inc.
• [New] We could potentially see a bit of incremental progress, such as modest tariff cuts and easing of technology and critical mineral restrictions, and perhaps some commitments by China to purchase US products. Fulcrum
• [New] Talks are expected to cover a potential new board of trade framework, AI, and U.S. agriculture and aerospace purchases, as well as China's positions on Iran and Taiwan. Alston & Bird
• [New] U.S. tariffs on automobiles and trucks from Europe could be increasing to 25% in July if the European Union does not adopt the trade deal negotiated with the U.S. last year. Passle
• [New] The meeting between Trump and Xi will likely focus narrowly on trade and export controls - including tariffs, Chinese purchases of US goods such as soybeans, energy, and airplanes, and stable rare earth flows. financialpost
• [New] Tensions between the U.S. and Europe have heightened recently, amidst Trump's calls for the acquisition of Greenland and threats to impose high tariffs on European allies that stand in his way. The Villanovan
• [New] As yuan-based trade grows and BRICS Pay expands, Pakistan may find new options for international transactions outside the dollar system potentially reducing vulnerability to currency crises. Talk to Globe
• [New] US LNG continues to expand at record pace, with US LNG export capacity set to triple by 2030. Clifford Chance
• [New] Nine ongoing USTR Section 232 investigations could lead to more tariffs in 2026 on imports of semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, medical supplies and equipment, critical minerals, aircraft, drones, polysilicon, wind turbines, and robotics. The Trust Company of Kansas
• [New] The U.S. will increase tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the European Union to 25%, asserting that the EU is not complying with a previously agreed trade deal. Forvis Mazars
• [New] Lingering uncertainty related to tariffs and elevated long-term yields are at play, in addition to businesses' focus on technology - US for-profit entities need greater surety over expected returns than China's state-owned and state-linked entities. Westpac IQ
• [New] The US tariff threat affects a subset of EU countries only, which is unusual as the EU negotiates trade agreements collectively. ABN AMRO Bank
• [New] The first farm in Abu Dhabi is expected to produce over 4.5 million pounds of premium strawberries annually for local consumption and export to Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Market Data Forecast

Last updated: 14 May 2026