Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] In summary, global trade in both thermal and met coal are expected to show a slight increase gaining 0.7% and 2.0% respectively in 2024. IEA
• [New] Considering significant demand for imports in China, India and other countries in the region such as Viet Nam, we expect Indonesia to meet a large proportion of the additional demand. IEA
• [New] The newly agreed hydrogen import strategy is intended to supplement the national hydrogen strategy by outlining paths to meet demand by scaling up imports of hydrogen and its derivatives by 2030 and beyond. Clean Energy Wire
• [New] Geopolitical risks, such as broader unrest in the Middle East, could hamper growth and increase inflation via disruptions to oil supply and trade. The Star
• [New] At least in the medium term, companies producing in Europe can be expected to have a substantial advantage in serving EU customers (the more so as import tariffs for BEV into the EU now stand at 10% even without additional countervailing duties). InterEconomics
• [New] Great British Energy will be owned by the British people, for the British people, creating jobs and building supply chains across the UK, and working with industry and trade unions to deliver clean power. iNews
• [New] Measures taken by the European Union to impose tariffs on BEV imports from China will target models that accounted for 17% of BEV registrations in Europe during H1 2024, excluding potential units imported by Tesla. Motoring Research
• [New] Russia's invasion of Ukraine has served as a wake-up call for European leaders to reduce dependence on imported gas, and 25 countries, including more than a dozen in Europe, have set a goal to triple global capacity by 2050. The Straits Times
• [New] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has said he could impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports if he returns to the White House, and a new analysis predicted it would drastically slow the world's second largest economy and send it to the brink of deflation. Fortune
• [New] The surge in nationalist and populist parties across Europe will make it much harder for the EU to agree policies on many issues, including climate change, trade and agriculture. Byline Times
• [New] With the strengthening of the China + 1 strategy to de-risk supply chains, global trade is looking at India as an important destination for manufacturing. Times of India
• [New] Promoting defence exports and investing in critical infrastructure will ensure that India's defence industry not only meets domestic needs but also becomes a formidable player on the global stage. Outlook Business & Money
• [New] China's active participation in the development of the AfCFTA will boost global trade and create economic opportunities for the Global South. IOL
• [New] Especially in today's world of increasingly nationalistic governments, it would be fanciful to think that large increases in US import tariffs will not be met by other countries retaliating with import tariffs of their own. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] 44% of decision makers in the EU and UK see war and political instability as a top trade risk, compared with just 28% in the U.S. Reinsurance News
• [New] In the US and EU, LFP will gain share but remain less dominant than in China due to immature supply chains and higher import costs. Share Talk
• [New] Countries like India could institute their own carbon tax on exports of CBAM products destined for the EU or any country imposing a carbon border tax. News18
• [New] Stricter food safety regulations and standards in importing countries could influence production practices and export capabilities, while trade agreements and tariffs will play a crucial role in shaping the global poultry trade landscape. Poultry Producer
• [New] Import demand is expected to rise in regions with insufficient domestic production to meet consumption needs, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and parts of Asia. Poultry Producer
• [New] The EU report has set targets for both domestic hydrogen production and imports that align with the zero-emission goal of the International Energy Agency by the end of 2050. MDPI
• [New] The growth of e-commerce and global trade continues to drive demand for expedited shipping services, presenting opportunities for air freight companies. Yahoo Finance
• A surge in demand for LNG exports elsewhere in the world (e.g., extreme weather event, geopolitical conflict) could create a price spike in North American gas prices as domestic supply drops to meet export demand. International Institute for Sustainable Development

Last updated: 25 July 2024