Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Business and consumer confidence remain particularly weak which could lead to more unemployment and financial stress than expected while structural challenges facing the economy in China remain a concern given its importance for the global economy and for New Zealand's trade. IC Markets | Official Blog
• [New] Rising geopolitical risks, including signs of a global trading system dividing into separate blocs oriented around the United States and China, are also troubling fund officials. The Washington Post
• [New] Chinese manufacturers within automotive and other industries are expected to increase investments in Mexico to avoid tariffs on goods exported to the U.S.. Foley & Lardner LLP
• [New] The economic expansion could be thrown off by the continuing adverse effects of higher rates and by geopolitical tensions, including the war in Gaza, that risk disrupting trade and raising energy and other prices. The Washington Post
• [New] External risks include increased trade tensions with the United States and European Union weakening the PRC's exports; escalated geopolitical tensions that may disrupt supply chains; renewed energy challenges triggered by geopolitical conflict; and fragmentation of the global economy. Asian Development Bank
• [New] China's and Germany's reliance on external demand rather than stimulative domestic policies to bolster their economies could cause rising tensions with trading partners and put a damper on global growth. Brookings
• [New] Mexico's imports were forecast at 575,000 tonnes, up 81,000 tonnes, or 16%, from March and up 290,000 tonnes, or 102%, from last year. Baking Business
• [New] TRQ imports were forecast at 1,775,000 tons, up 25,086 tons from March on higher imports expected from Argentina and Panama, other program (re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs) at 288,000 tons, up 88,000 tons, and high-tier imports at a record 855,000 tons, up 140,000 tons. Baking Business
• [New] US 2023-24 sugar imports from Mexico were forecast at 498,644 short tons, raw value, down 167,020 tons, or 25%, from 666,000 tons as the March forecast, and down 657,000 tons, or 57%, from 2022-23. Baking Business
• [New] Japan has expressed particular interest in developing a 'hydrogen economy' that could include imports from MENA and other suitable producers such as Australia. SpringerLink
• [New] Ukraine is an especially pertinent issue: there will inevitably be crunch discussions about further financial, military and humanitarian aid, and the extent to which EU countries will be willing to support Ukraine by reducing trade barriers on the import of goods. The Guardian
• [New] China could attempt to increase its influence in Central Asia significantly to secure energy and trade routes to the Middle East and Europe, which could lead Central Asian states to push back and request greater US military presence, potentially leading to an unintentional military clash. US Army War College - Strategic Studies Institute
• [New] The new free trade agreement between Ukraine and Canada is expected to expand the involvement of domestic businesses in international supply chains. Ukrainska Pravda
• [New] There are some other external risks too: potentially higher energy prices when India is a net oil importer; a global economic slowdown that can affect exports; and geopolitical tensions with neighbours China and Pakistan which could also have an impact on political stability. The Armchair Trader
• [New] The conflict in the Middle East has caused disruptions in sea shipments between Europe and Asia, and similar tensions elsewhere could lead to further trade fragmentation. Mint
• [New] Ukrainian grain supply was heavily impacted as a result of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and infrastructure and threats to existing shipping routes, despite international efforts to secure safe trade corridors. Hfw
• [New] Moscow could weaponize trade with Armenia by blocking Armenian products at the Russian border or increasing energy prices. The Armenian Weekly
• [New] The volume of world trade in merchandise fell by 1.2% last year, but will increase by 3.3% in 2025. The Star
• While the EU is expected to impose tariffs on Russian grain exports soon, it is still possible that importers from other countries will follow China's lead in the coming months. Hfw
• While Ukrainian grain supply has now stabilised more than might otherwise have been expected, Ukraine still faces challenges and uncertainty in the face of ongoing attacks which will continue to impact the reliability of its grain exports. Hfw

Last updated: 18 April 2024