Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Overall global commodity prices are projected to decline by about 7% in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of moderation, driven by subdued global economic activity and persistent trade tensions. FinancialContent
• [New] The U.S. and South Korea are reported to have finalized a trade deal that is expected to establish a 15% cap on U.S. tariffs on Korean goods. JD Supra
• [New] A revision of the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports, including coffee, could push arabica prices lower. Market Insights
• [New] US tariffs alone mean fashion brands and retailers are anticipating prices will rise by as much as 20%. Carmignac
• [New] Despite the shift from fixed tariffs to auctions and its impact on project economics, China continues to account for almost 60% of global renewable capacity growth and is on track to reach its recently announced 2035 wind and solar target five years ahead of schedule. Energy Tracker Asia
• [New] The U.S. will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports imposed to curb fentanyl flows from 20% to 10%. CorpbridgeAdvisors
• [New] China will suspend its expansive new export controls on rare earths and issue general licenses for exports to U.S. end users. The Pilot News
• [New] China's rare earth export controls could potentially affect the timeline for global clean energy transitions, given the critical role of rare earth materials in renewable energy technologies. Discovery Alert
• [New] While governments worldwide prioritise renewable energy development, China rare earth export rules could potentially slow clean energy technology deployment. Discovery Alert
• [New] On the trade front, Beijing has begun creating a new rare earth licensing programme that could speed up shipments but is likely to fall short of Washington's hopes for a complete rollback of restrictions. ST
• [New] China's Ministry of Commerce said Sunday it will lift export restrictions for a year on five key minerals used in semiconductors, ammunition, batteries and nuclear reactors, a move tied to last month's Trump-Xi trade summit in South Korea. eOption
• [New] Emerging markets and North America are key growth drivers, with resilient trade flows in regions like India, the Middle East, and Africa bolstering export potential. FinancialContent
• [New] While the risk of higher tariffs feeding through to consumer prices is real, the U.S. economy is better described as undergoing a measured and controlled slowdown rather than a slide into stagflation or outright contraction. CI Global Asset Management
• [New] New tariffs have quickly become one of the most disruptive forces facing procurement leaders in 2025. CPO RISING - THE SITE FOR CHIEF PROCUREMENT OFFICERS &
• [New] The prospect of increased US tariffs on European goods underscores a broader trend towards protectionism, which could lead to a fragmentation of global trade and further strain international economic relations, potentially pushing the Eurozone into recession. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] US-bound Chinese goods will face an average tariff rate of around 45%, above the 35% level that some economists say wipes out Chinese manufacturers' profit margins. ST
• [New] Increased U.S. trade protectionism and China's economic slowdown pose significant downside risks, while limited fiscal space constrains policy responses. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian energy infrastructure with drone attacks, leading to disruptions in oil refining and export operations, which in turn impacts global energy supply dynamics. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] The near-term outlook for manufacturing remains cautiously optimistic, with robust domestic new orders and output growth supporting sustained activity into Q1 2026, though subdued business confidence due to tariff risks and export weakness could cap momentum. / USA Shipley Energy
• [New] Africa is entering a new era of economic transformation, driven by diversification away from oil dependency and a focus on sustainable trade and investment opportunities. African Leadership Organisation Events
• [New] Global and domestic forces-Tariffs, trade and nationalism will shape supply chains and pricing. glassonweb.com
• [New] While the stated policy goals of the U.S. tariffs are to reshore manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, shifting production to the U.S. is a long-term effort that could take years, even decades, to realize at scale. CPO RISING - THE SITE FOR CHIEF PROCUREMENT OFFICERS &
• [New] Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the threat of enhanced US sanctions and tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil, while cautioning that Russia would only make serious moves towards peace if it began to run out of money. Caliber.az

Last updated: 13 November 2025