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WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

  • [New] Commodity price hikes, Chinese hard landing and a US / China trade war are all estimated to have a 10% probability risk level. Hospitality Trends
  • [New] Other key risks include a Chinese hard landing - a shift or downward turn in the Chinese economy that has rapidly experienced growth - and a worsening trade war between the US and China. Hospitality Trends
  • [New] The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in April as imports of goods rebounded while exports declined, a trend that if sustained, could result in trade being a drag on economic growth in the second quarter. The Globe and Mail
  • [New] China's digital yuan has the potential to weaken the ability of the United States to retain trading partners, enforce sanctions, and monitor financial flows. Foreign Policy Research Institute
  • [New] The weaker US data contrasts with the stronger-than-expected Caixin services PMI from China, the world's largest importer of oil. forex UK CD
  • [New] United States officials have repeatedly conveyed to Mexico that its biotechnology policies are not based on science and threaten to disrupt U.S. exports and exacerbate food security challenges. Feedstuffs
  • [New] Agricultural exports are forecast to tumble from record levels, falling 17% to A$ 65 billion in 2023-24 due to lower production and easing global prices for grains and oilseeds. Reuters
  • [New] A new framework for trade negotiations which puts farmers' interests at the heart of trade policy by committing to protect the UK's high food and welfare standards and prioritise new export opportunities. GOV.UK
  • [New] A shift that has the potential to rebalance the international system of trade and finance in an equitable way, with the emerging and developing world establishing itself as a force to be reckoned with. Observer Research Foundation
  • [New] The shift away from the US dollar has the potential to rebalance the international system of trade in an equitable way while placing the Global South at the center of it. Observer Research Foundation
  • [New] In contrast to the clampdowns in countries like South Korea, which vowed last year to fully ban bear bile farming from 2026, China's trade is booming. CNN
  • [New] The high volumes of grain and other agricultural commodities produced in Ukraine and the Russian Federation highlight the significant risk that the war in Ukraine poses for global food security and trade. Global Hunger Index (GHI) - peer-reviewed annual public
  • [New] A recent pronouncement from the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) that they will be shifting from trading with the US dollar among themselves has become a hot talking point across the world. Nation
  • [New] Even as a more countries look to lessen their reliance on the dollar, few expect its preeminent position in global trade and finance to be threatened any time soon. Moneyweb
  • [New] The United States has repeatedly conveyed its concerns that Mexico's biotechnology policies are not based on science and threaten to disrupt U.S. exports to Mexico to the detriment of agricultural producers, which in turn can exacerbate food security challenges. United States Trade Representative
  • [New] Corn exports are forecast $2.1 billion lower to $14.5 billion on lower unit values and volumes as Brazil is poised to harvest a record second crop corn. Feed & Grain
  • [New] U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year 2023 are forecast at $181 billion, down $3.5 billion from the February forecast. Feed & Grain
  • [New] Even by conservative estimates that account for realistic commercial and logistical limits, geothermal energy could help the UK to cut its imports of fossil fuels and rely only on the North Sea for its gas. The Guardian
  • [New] Moldova's heavy reliance on food and energy imports from Ukraine and Russia made it vulnerable to conflict-related disruptions to food and energy supplies from Ukraine and Russia due to the war in Ukraine. The Conversation

Last updated: 08 June 2023