Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] China's new licensing requirements for rare earths and other materials could suddenly hit the European economy - along with multiple other obstacles from trade turbulence, to rules of origin, to tariffs. InterEconomics
• [New] Trade and economic impacts of tariffs could become more visible and significant in 2026. FASH455 Global Apparel & Textile Trade and Sourcing
• [New] Even with several trade deals reached between the US and major trading partners like the EU, Vietnam, Cambodia, and potentially China and India, their implementation and enforcement will warrant close attention. FASH455 Global Apparel & Textile Trade and Sourcing
• [New] The trade policy environment facing the global fashion apparel industry could remain highly uncertain in 2026. FASH455 Global Apparel & Textile Trade and Sourcing
• [New] Clothing retail sales in key apparel import markets, including the United States and Western Europe, could be stagnant or even decline in 2026. FASH455 Global Apparel & Textile Trade and Sourcing
• [New] Overall growth (excluding China) is forecast to maintain a trend-like pace of 3.3%, helped by factors including fading tail-risks on tariffs, easier monetary policy and ongoing tech capex. J.P. MORGAN
• [New] Latin America will be an early mover, supplying a large share of global seaborne hydrogen trade in the 2030s, mostly to Europe. DNV
• [New] Mexico eyes opportunity in LNG export terminals on its Pacific coast, intended for Asian markets with US shale gas. DNV
• [New] New US tariffs on apparel imports are set to significantly impact key producing countries like China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia and India, with global buyers expected to shift orders to lower-cost countries to avoid increased expenses. Business and Human Rights Centre
• [New] Trade relations, especially between the U.S. and China, remain a critical influence, with the potential for new tariffs or restrictions on technology transfers. FinancialContent
• [New] Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes will particularly affect companies with complex global supply chains or significant exposure to specific regions. FinancialContent
• [New] The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projects global growth to decelerate to 2.6% in 2025 and 2026, down from 2.9% in 2024. FinancialContent
• [New] If projections hold, global trade in 2025 will exceed $35 trillion for the first time - an increase of $2.2 trillion, or around 7%, compared with 2024. UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
• [New] China asserts dominance over rare earth minerals, controlling 61% of global production and over 90% of processing, by imposing export controls that could halt industrial operations worldwide for essential components in missiles, electric vehicles, and smartphones. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals have led companies - such as France's Thales and Germany's Rheinmetall - to warn of higher costs as they restructure supply chains. Space War
• [New] Tariffs and anticipated fiscal stimulus from 2026 tax refunds could reignite consumer spending in key sectors like vehicles and electronics. Ainvest
• [New] Lithium extraction has heavy environmental and public health costs, and supply chains are dominated by China, presenting critical geopolitical trade-offs and vulnerabilities. oilprice.com
• [New] Australia, with which the US maintains a trade surplus, will face a 10% tariff. Morningstar
• [New] Vietnam will face a 46% tariff on goods imported to the US. Morningstar

Last updated: 11 December 2025