Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] A flare-up in trade frictions which sees tit-for-tat tariffs imposed around the world could lower UK GDP by 0.4%, with an even larger hit to more export-oriented economies in Europe. KPMG
• [New] The incoming US administration's willingness to use tariffs to achieve policy goals could escalate trade frictions, influencing the global economic outlook for 2025 and 2026. KPMG
• [New] As the UK looks ahead to more growth in 2025, the year could bring renewed challenges from a higher pace of inflation, increased trade frictions, and a heightened state of economic uncertainty. KPMG
• [New] Although some tariffs have been reduced and suspended, persistent trade tensions, especially between the US and China, are expected to curtail global trade and investment, with spillovers for the G-20 economies. The Newsmen
• [New] Countries such as China, in the face of higher charges on exports to the US, will reroute trade and lower import prices for other countries, which could result in lower prices for UK consumers. Manchester Evening News
• [New] Europe's film industry is worried that hard-won legislation mandating European content quotas for streaming platforms could be put at risk amid ongoing transatlantic trade discussions, following US President Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on movies produced outside the US. Euronews
• [New] If China responds to US restrictions, it could significantly strain trade relations and have adverse effects on future trade relationships within the global economy. South China Morning Post
• [New] At least 16 million jobs across many industries in China are at risk due to President Trump's imposing of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports. New York Post
• [New] A good deal would address American concerns about digital trade and intellectual property, align export controls for economic security and offer the US commercial opportunities, including investments in critical minerals. Canada's National Observer
• [New] Factors such as slower economic activity in the EU and heightened global trade uncertainties could negatively impact growth, reducing trade in goods and services, investments, and remittances. BalkanEU
• [New] In 2025, France is expected to import over 80,000 metric tons of almonds, with a significant portion of its imports coming from countries like Spain and the United States. EssFeed
• [New] In 2025, the UK is projected to import over 100,000 metric tons of almonds, with a significant portion of its imports coming from countries like the United States and Spain. EssFeed
• [New] In 2025, Spain is expected to import over 300,000 metric tons of almonds, with a significant portion of its imports coming from countries like the United States and Australia. EssFeed
• [New] In 2025, India is expected to import over 600,000 metric tons of almonds, with the majority of its imports coming from countries like the United States and Australia. EssFeed
• [New] In 2025, the US is expected to import over 1 million metric tons of almonds, driven by the increasing demand for almond-based products in the food and beverage industry. EssFeed
• [New] Nigeria's sesame seed production is expected to continue growing in the coming years, supported by government initiatives to promote agricultural exports and improve farming practices. EssFeed
• [New] China's sesame seed production is expected to remain stable in the coming years, with a focus on improving quality standards and expanding export markets. EssFeed
• [New] US Pushes for Policy Changes in India's Trade, Agriculture Sectors Under Proposed Bilateral Deal, Says GTRI The US is expected to push for sweeping policy changes in India, from tariff cuts to regulatory reforms, in a proposed trade deal. Leverage Edu
• [New] Commerce Ministry Warns Industry Over US 'Rules of Origin' Norms to Avoid Higher Duties on Exports The Commerce Ministry has warned Indian exporters to comply with US 'rules of origin' norms to avoid higher duties, ensuring proper value addition in goods re-routed from high-tariff countries. Leverage Edu
• [New] Hindrances due to export controls could spur China to double down on self-reliance, potentially accelerating their development and leading to innovations that might outpace the U.S. in certain areas. OpenTools
• [New] On a global scale, the policy response elsewhere matters though - China and euro area fiscal stimulus may step up more than expected against the global economic backdrop and to further offset the impact of tariffs. Royal London Asset Management
• [New] Free trade enables gain of comparative advantage - countries can specialise in producing goods where they have a lower opportunity costGreater competition in the global economy. Economics Help

Last updated: 08 May 2025