Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Premier Wen's dialog with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will address obstacles blocking a future China-India free-trade agreement in addition to the simmering dispute over the 90,000-square-kilometer territory of Arunachal Pradesh, which is currently under Indian control and claimed by China. Hudson Institute
• [New] U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports has sounded alarm bells among retail and trade experts, who caution it could lead to more price increases and squeeze demand. SeafoodNews
• [New] Ongoing volatility in US tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months. Fibre2Fashion
• [New] With most holiday merchandise already stocked and tariffs continuing to climb, monthly import cargo volume at major US container ports is projected to drop below 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units for the rest of the year. Fibre2Fashion
• [New] Cooling trade frictions between the U.S and China have been a key catalyst in stabilizing global risk sentiment. The Independent
• [New] Should the U.S. and China reach a trade agreement, Chinese automotive investment interests will shift to the U.S. and Canada will be bypassed. The Globe and Mail
• [New] Full implementation of digital trade frameworks across the Commonwealth could generate US$ 1.2 trillion in efficiency and growth gains by 2026, including US$ 90 billion in additional intra-Commonwealth trade. Commonwealth
• [New] Growth in global trade of goods and services is expected to slow down to +0.6% in 2026 from +2% in 2025 in volume terms. Allianz Trade Corporate
• [New] Export losses could in theory range from -0.3% of GDP to -1.3% of GDP (Vietnam) compared to a pre-trade war scenario. Allianz Trade Corporate
• [New] A faster resolution of trade tensions and associated reduction in uncertainty, as well as the potential for significant productivity gains from AI, could all give global growth a meaningful boost. IMF
• [New] In 2025 the UK economy will outperform other G7 economies, apart from the US, in what has been a torrid year for trade and geopolitical tensions. BBC News
• [New] Global trade flows under pressure The world's trade volume in goods and services is projected to grow 3.6% in 2025, slowing to 2.3% in 2026 - reflecting a front-loaded pattern as companies rushed shipments ahead of tariff deadlines. Economic Times
• [New] The world's three largest economies - the US, the Euro Area, and China - are all showing signs of fatigue, with major manufacturing and export sectors softening and inflation proving stickier than expected. Economic Times
• [New] India emerges as a bright spot in a slowing global economy, projected by the IMF to grow at 6.6% in 2025 despite rising US tariffs. Economic Times
• [New] Foreign entities will need to obtain a license from Beijing to export certain products containing over 0.1% of domestically-sourced rare earths, or manufactured using China's extraction, refining, magnet-making or recycling technology. JD Supra
• [New] The additional tariff on U.S. imports from China, if stacked on the current average tariff of around 55%, could take the total levies to above 150%, effectively causing a trade embargo. CNBC
• [New] Renewed Trump-era tariffs on imported auto parts are projected to increase production costs by $160 billion annually, further disrupting integrated supply chains and potentially impacting commodity pricing and availability. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] Reports of intensified U.S.-China trade friction fueled fears of disrupted supply chains and reduced global economic activity, directly impacting multinational tech giants. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] Digital systems will enable real-time optimization of global trade flows, autonomous ships will handle routine cargo movements, and ship ownership will be as accessible as any other professional investment opportunity. Shipfinex.com
• [New] From blockchain systems that enable fractional ship ownership to artificial intelligence that optimizes global trade routes, technology is solving centuries-old problems while creating entirely new opportunities. Shipfinex.com
• [New] A protracted trade war could accelerate the decoupling of the US and Chinese economies, leading to the formation of distinct, competing economic blocs. FinancialContent

Last updated: 16 October 2025