Economy

DRIVER: The global economy still faces serious headwinds and political uncertainty potentially balanced by the enormous promise of technological advancements in many fields. Read on to get a solid handle on the opportunities and risks you and your organization may likely face and set your sails accordingly.

[New] The economic performance in the US, EU, and China will largely shape the pattern of apparel trade this year.
[New] Fear has shut down global economic activity and has seen investors panic and sell, wiping more than USD 1 trillion off the value of businesses.
[New] Jobs in the Mobile Economy: 5G technologies are expected to contribute $2.2 trillion to the global economy between 2024 and 2034.
[New] With an increasingly important role in the global economy, any setbacks to the Chinese economy are expected to have significant negative spillovers to the global economy.
[New] The oil price crash and coronavirus have compounded an inauspicious start to oil production in Guyana, which was previously projected to experience economic growth of 86% this year.
[New] Mexico will not feel the effects of low oil prices as acutely this year thanks to its annual oil hedge, which covered 2020 government oil revenues by locking in a price of $ 49/barrel for an undisclosed number of barrels.
[New] The combination of the coronavirus epidemic, and the slump in global oil prices, means that investment will contract sharply this year, especially in the energy sector, and export growth will sag.
[New] Citi expects aluminium prices to drop to $1,450 a tonne in the short term, sees a 2.7 million tonne surplus this year and forecasts a 6.2% global demand decline.
[New] Oxford had the most bearish outlook, saying that the Canadian economy was likely already contracting, while CIBC predicted a 3% decline for the next two quarters.
[New] In the next 5 years, the EU (275) and Germany (183) are still considered as the ones which will have the closest economic ties with the Czech Republic, followed by China (102), Russia, South Korea, USA, and Japan.
[New] Inflation will be very subdued in 2020, due to both a drop in demand and the low global oil price.
[New] Latvian GDP growth is expected to disappoint already in the first quarter of 2020, and the economy will likely see a material drop in the second quarter - probably the sharpest quarter-on-quarter fall in GDP ever recorded.
[New] The U.S. is now the world's largest producer of both oil and gas, and is expected to account for 70% of the increase in global oil production and 75% of the growth of liquefied natural gas trade over the next 5 years.
[New] There is a significant degree of uncertainty regarding population growth that makes it hard to predict how food production will cope with demographics in the coming decades.
[New] Deutsche Bank is the latest financial institution to forecast a global recession in 2020, and its second-quarter projections would be the biggest economic contractions in nearly 80 years.
[New] The next hit will come from a general slowdown in the global economy which will particularly affect manufactured exports, and will create a renewed round of weakness for forestry.
[New] India's economic outlook is expected to pick up in 2020 due to lower oil prices and a combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
[New] Japan will continue to struggle with low inflation over the foreseeable future as global uncertainties weigh on economic growth prospects, limiting wage growth and demand-driven inflationary pressures.
[New] The IMF expects South Korean growth to recover to 2.2% in 2020, as a result of ongoing impacts of government stimulus and a gradual improvement in global economic activity.
[New] Assuming the economic impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak ease in the second half of 2020, global industrial production growth is expected to return to pre-2019 levels.
[New] The Chinese government is expected to embark on measures to cushion the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, with industrial production growth expected to receive a boost as a result.
[New] While there is significant uncertainty over Chinese growth in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak, growth in emerging markets and developing economies is forecast to rise from 3.7% in 2019 to 4.4% in 2020, and to 4.6% in 2021.

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Last updated: 31 March 2020