Global Scans · Economy · Weekly Summary

DRIVER: The global economy still faces serious headwinds and political uncertainty potentially balanced by the enormous promise of technological advancements in many fields. Read on to get a solid handle on the opportunities and risks you and your organization may likely face and set your sails accordingly.

• [New] The new U.S. president could force Putin into a peace deal with Ukraine through other means: by driving down global oil prices. Meduza
• [New] We expect global consumption of liquid fuels to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026, driven by consumption growth in non-OECD countries. EIA - Energy Information Administration
• [New] Inflation as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures falls from an estimated 2.5% in 2024 to a rate roughly in line with the Federal Reserve's long-run goal of 2% in 2027 and stabilizes thereafter. Congressional Budget Office
• [New] Lower rates in the US, eurozone, UK, and other major economies suggests a risk-on year in global markets. Invesco
• [New] The broader application of AI across sectors promises to boost productivity, drive innovation, and generate new economic opportunities, encouraging global growth in a sustainable manner. Qhubo
• [New] Countries that expect the global economy to remain open usually prefer to find a peaceful place within it - but change their behaviour when there is a risk that it will slam shut. Reason.com
• [New] Climate change poses serious threats to Iraq's environment, agriculture, public health, and socio-economic stability. Georgetown Security Studies Review
• [New] Economic predictions, which estimate that damages from global heating would be as low as 2% of global economic production for a 3 C rise in global average surface temperature, were inaccurate and were blinding political leaders to the risks of their policies. Grist
• [New] The global economy could face a 50% loss in gross domestic product between 2070 and 2090 from the catastrophic shocks of climate change unless immediate action by political leaders is taken to decarbonize and restore nature. Grist
• [New] Continuing to rely so heavily on lithium-ion batteries as more energy storage is needed for the global transition to sustainable energy will pose security, economic, and geopolitical risks. SciTechDaily
• [New] Mass production of nuclear power will make a major contribution to energy for AI Data centers in the 2030s and could start in 2029 if new players can execute. NextBigFuture.com
• [New] Hungary's investment in domestic industries, education, and innovation fosters economic growth and creates a self-reliant economy that can function independently of global supply chain vulnerabilities. Hungarian Conservative
• [New] The South Korea project will make use of public-private funding as it goes about augmenting regional clean electricity supply and economic growth, creating 1200 jobs and revitalising local industrial complexes. Mining Weekly
• [New] The potential elimination of EV tax credits in the United States could have a significant impact on Tesla's sales in the short term. investing.com
• [New] The potential removal of EV tax credits in the U.S. could level the playing field for competitors but may also benefit Tesla due to its high U.S. content in vehicle production and superior cost structure. investing.com
• [New] For the US, whilst Trump's core policies are pro-growth there is now a greater degree of uncertainty, bigger downside risk and a wider range of possible economic outcomes. 4D Infrastructure - A Bennelong boutique
• [New] Longer term manufacturing orientated EMs (Vietnam and Mexico) could benefit from a shift by Western firms pulling production out of China. 4D Infrastructure - A Bennelong boutique
• [New] Latin America: Latin American countries offer growth opportunities due to their abundant timber resources and increasing awareness of sustainable building practices. MarkWide Research
• [New] The UAE's space economy is still in its growth phase, providing companies with opportunities to establish themselves and play an influential role in shaping the ecosystem. AGBI
• Drivers of Growth: Private consumption and investment are expected to be the primary contributors to India's economic growth. IBPS Guide
• Nutraceutical and natural product companies will face a confluence of significant challenges in 2025, many with their roots in longstanding national challenges: supply chain vulnerabilities, economic uncertainty, environmental disasters, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Nutritional Outlook
• With the world's largest offshore wind farm under construction off Yorkshire's north coast at Dogger Bank, there will be a wealth of opportunities for businesses in the wind supply chain. Yorkshire

Last updated: 21 January 2025