Economy

DRIVER: The global economy still faces serious headwinds and political uncertainty potentially balanced by the enormous promise of technological advancements in many fields. Read on to get a solid handle on the opportunities and risks you and your organization may likely face and set your sails accordingly.

[New] The recent lifting of restrictions allows businesses to slowly reopen and ramp up production, but according to forecasts, new vehicle demand will remain suppressed for the next several years.
[New] As one of the key forces driving economic growth, consumption will catch up with the momentum in overall recovery and see some pent-up demand unleashed during the second half of the year as service sector picks up pace amid further containment of COVID-19.
[New] While India is the world's second largest consumer of coal, and annually imports 247m tonnes, costing more than $20bn (£15bn), India's electricity demand is forecast to fall by up to 15% over the next five years due to the economic reverberations of Covid-19.
[New] On the supply front, concerns are rising that a rebound in global production as OPEC + pulls back from unprecedented production cuts in August and returning US production will further weaken supply-demand fundamentals.
[New] Canada's oil sands production should hit nearly 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030, representing a nearly 1.1 million-bpd increase from current levels.
[New] Marathon Oil expects its oil production to bottom out in the third quarter before recovering later in the year as it focuses on the Eagle Ford and Bakken Shale plays and continues to trim well completion costs.
[New] Global cotton consumption in 2020-21 is pegged at 23.5 mln tn, marginally lower than 23.6 mln tn projected a month ago owing to changes for Brazil and the US.
[New] The International Cotton Advisory Committee has scaled up its estimate for global consumption in 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) to 23.9 mln tn, compared with 23.3 mln tn projected in the previous month.
[New] The needs of the U.S. economy go beyond people with Ph.D.'s, pointing to home health aides, nurses and other jobs projected to grow in the coming years.
[New] UK unemployment is likely to rise to around 10% later in 2020 and could stay above its current level in the coming years due to economic scarring and hysteresis in the labour market.
[New] As oil prices have stabilized near $40 and surprisingly, the fundamentals for natural gas have turned decidedly bullish, Crestwood's G & P segment is expected to see a good second half 2020 with volumes continuing to grow and all shut - in volumes expected to return by the fourth quarter.
[New] The spread of apps controlled by the Chinese government continues to threaten the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States.
[New] Fiscal and monetary policy has helped to support the economic recovery in China and will continue to do so in the second half of 2020.
[New] Australian recovery in consumption has lagged the recovery in industrial production and ongoing weakness in consumer demand presents a downside risk to growth in the second half of the year.
[New] The IMF expects GDP in emerging market and developing economies (excluding China) to contract by around 5% in 2020 and to recover more slowly than advanced economies.
[New] China, the world's second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected Non-phthalate Plasticizers market size of US$ 1.3 Billion by the year 2027 trailing a CAGR of 11.3% over the analysis period 2020 to 2027.
[New] As deaths outpace births, Florida's growth rate will dip below 1% annually by the end of the decade for the first time since the economic recession a dozen years ago.
[New] India's gold demand in 2020 is expected to fall to the lowest level in 26 years with domestic bullion prices hitting a record high and as falling disposable incomes could curtail retail purchases.
[New] China's superiority in the development of 5G networks poses a threat to the U.S. economy and national security.
[New] As early signs of recovery in the global economy emerged by the end of Q2 2020 with easing lockdowns, historically high levels of government spending will remain pivotal for faster recovery.
[New] Global stimulus and a weak dollar will continue to support oil prices, as historically oil is seen as a hedge against inflation: Globally, the economic outlook has dimmed again, with increasing coronavirus infections raising the risk of renewed lockdowns and threatening any rebound.
[New] The global economy is projected to contract by 3% in 2020 with slow-growing economies like Venezuela, Yemen, and Sudan taking the biggest hit.
[New] Global economic activity will fall 6% in 2020, with five years of income growth lost across the global economy by 2021.

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Last updated: 11 August 2020