Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] A more drawn-out conflict in the Middle East could see inflation spike by as much as 5.6%. The Daily Star
• [New] Growth predictions could fall to as low as 4.7% for 2026 and 4.8% in 2027 should the US-Israeli war with Iran drag into the third quarter. The Daily Star
• [New] The Middle East war is expected to drag on Asia's economies over this year and next. The Daily Star
• [New] The International Monetary Fund has revised upward its forecast for Brazil's economic growth this year, as the war in the Middle East is expected to have a slightly positive net effect. valorinternational
• [New] Numerous vessels that have a history of transporting non-Iranian cargoes from the Persian Gulf are now diverting due to heightened security risks and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from the Iran war, causing many to seek alternative cargoes in U.S. ports, such as Galveston. UANI
• [New] The conflict in Iran will have a significant and wide-ranging impact on policyholders and the insurance industry. Mishcon de Reya LLP
• [New] The Iran war could be a big opportunity for Ukraine's battle-proven counter-drone tech, but one company says it worries it will miss its window without export access. Business Insider
• [New] Ship operators still face astronomical war-risk insurance premiums, potential mine hazards, and uncertainty about enforcement. ST
• [New] The strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels, reinforcing hopes for an eventual end to the war in the Middle East and sending oil prices tumbling despite analysts' warnings that there will be no immediate widespread resumption of passage through the vital waterway. The Guardian
• [New] The Iran conflict continues to evolve, and its economic fallout will test small businesses in ways that go beyond the immediate fuel price surge. Military.com
• [New] Equities are pushing higher as growing speculation that a deal to end the war between the US and Iran is nearing prompts traders to take on more risk. Bloomberg
• [New] The Donald Trump administration has repeatedly hinted at the possibility of large-scale strikes against the Iranian regime, increasing the risk of a local operation turning into a large-scale conflict. Militarnyi
• [New] The terrorism threat to Singapore remains high, driven by ongoing conflicts elsewhere. ST
• [New] The IMF now expects expansion to slow to 4.8% in 2026, as tailwinds linked to Russia's war in Ukraine fade and new headwinds from the Middle East conflict emerge. The Astana Times
• [New] Trump further claimed that Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again ... it will no longer be used as a weapon against the world - language that, if it holds, would represent a structural regime change in how the global oil complex prices Middle East tail risk. investing.com
• [New] The global energy markets are in flux as of mid-April 2026, shaped by severe disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict (centered on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz). Energy News Beat
• [New] If central banks raise rates further to combat Iran-war inflation, the capital-intensive renewables sector could face a financing crisis. youth4planet
• [New] Surging energy costs and extreme volatility in oil markets resulting from the ongoing Middle East conflict could shift the trajectory of the U.S. economy for the remainder of the year. Agriculture of America
• [New] European countries could run out of jet fuel in the next six weeks due to the recent war in the Middle East. Everything Briefing
• [New] The conflict in Iran is renewing cost volatility in U.S. commercial construction after a brief period of stabilization, as higher fuel prices, shipping disruptions, and supply chain bottlenecks drive up procurement and logistics pressures. EFCG
• [New] The International Monetary Fund has warned the US-Israel war on Iran risks creating an energy crisis of an unprecedented scale that could tip the global economy towards recession. The Guardian
• [New] While most of Asia is being hit hard, China will likely benefit from war-related fossil fuel disruptions despite being the biggest purchaser of Iranian oil. KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness News

Last updated: 21 April 2026