Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] Recently, the Italian secret services drafted a confidential report on the operating scenarios of the threat from global terrorism, in which they do not rule out a 10-kiloton atomic attack by al-Qaeda on a city or the hypothesis of an attack using chemical weapons. Elcano Royal Institute
• [New] Al-Qaeda will continue to try to obtain chemical and radiological weapons and the risk of their being used in terrorist attacks in the EU is not insignificant and is on the rise. Elcano Royal Institute
• [New] Targeting selection To no small extent, the current threat from international terrorism to the institutions and inhabitants of the European Union still comes directly from al-Qaeda, although a possibly greater threat comes from its affiliate groups and organizations. Elcano Royal Institute
• [New] Britain is to flirt with recession and unemployment will be sent soaring amid the fallout of the Iran war. LBC
• [New] The geopolitical tension indicated by Trump's rejection could suggest an increase in WTI crude oil prices due to ongoing instability concerns. Crypto Briefing
• [New] Observers should monitor further developments in the US-Iran conflict, particularly any changes to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz that could influence oil markets. Crypto Briefing
• [New] Any developments in the US-Iran conflict that impact oil prices will be crucial, as they could alter inflation dynamics and Fed policy considerations. Crypto Briefing
• [New] The Middle East conflict was likely taking a toll on manufacturers in the form of supply chain disruptions and increased business costs, including energy and petrochemical-related costs. ST
• [New] The Iran war has caused severe supply chain disruptions, leading to inflated costs and prolonged delivery times. ST
• [New] Looking ahead to 2026, one important caveat that could change the private jet map is the war in Iran, which has slowed down travel to Middle Eastern hubs. Business Insider
• [New] The war in Iran will absorb 70% of US attention and resources. |
• [New] The US-Israeli war against Iran will become protracted, lasting several months. |
• [New] The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran will lead to the destruction of Iran's military potential, its ballistic-missile production plants and its infrastructure for producing nuclear weapons. |
• [New] A US-Israeli coalition will carry out a successful military campaign against Iran, driving oil prices back down to prewar levels and increasing supplies of Western weapons to Ukraine. |
• [New] In recent weeks, the dramatic escalation of conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has added another layer of violence and fear across Palestine. Doctors Without Borders/Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF)
• [New] The Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sharply increased inflation fears among households. Armstrong Economics
• [New] If the Iran conflict persists, the impact on market pricing and supply continuity could be extreme. investing.com
• [New] Yesterday the Bank of England gave a major warning that the inflationary impact of the war in Iran could send inflation soaring to above 6% and force interest rates back up. City AM
• [New] Cost of living concerns continue as conflict in the Middle East threatens to hit Britain's economy. Yahoo Finance UK
• [New] Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession in 2026 as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer's government, a leading thinktank has warned. The Guardian
• [New] South Korea has announced its intention to commit to nuclear power since the Iran war devastated supplies of oil and gas, and more countries could follow suit. CNBC
• [New] Conflict with Iran, particularly any disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, would drive up global energy prices almost immediately. The Fulcrum

Last updated: 05 May 2026