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Conflict

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

[New] Deterrence has not been effective against North Korea because the United States did neither discuss or nor operationalize the threat of regime annihilation.
[New] The United States has mainly been focused on deterring North Korea by threatening it with annihilation if the North were to use nuclear weapons, and reassuring South Korea with the promise of extended deterrence.
[New] If the United States and ROK were to counterattack, North Korea could threaten to unleash a full-scale nuclear war that would devastate the Korean peninsula as well as the Asia-Pacific region.
[New] Chinese state media had been hinting for months that wine could be targeted, especially after Australia joined the US in denouncing China's legal claim to most of the South China Sea in July.
[New] The discussion on Ukraine will focus on the recent escalation of tensions due to increased military presence of Russia close to the conflict area in eastern Ukraine and in the Crimean Peninsula illegally annexed by Russia.
[New] The unconditional troop withdrawal creates a risk that both the Taliban and the Afghan government will want to test their military strength in the absence of U.S. and NATO ground troops - leading to a more brutal civil war.
[New] In the short term, heightened political tensions between Moscow and Washington will most likely result in the former retaliating against the latest sanctions, with Biden's proposal to meet Putin at a summit to discuss the situation in Ukraine unlikely to occur in the immediate term.
[New] Even missile defenses that would never work in practice can catalyze the development of new nuclear weapons and increase global risk.
[New] Precisely because the immediate stakes are lower in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, so is the credibility of any threat to use nuclear weapons to avoid defeat.
[New] If there is no means of bridging the gap between conventional and nuclear capabilities, North Korea would likely consider threatening to use nuclear weapons in a more aggressive manner, as it may mistakenly perceive that the United States would not intervene in a crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
[New] The first concern is that if South Korea's conventional forces are operated unilaterally and preemptively, it could increase the risk of North Korea's use of nuclear weapons.
[New] The United States will reportedly recognize counter-terrorism initiatives and will have its full focus on terrorist threats wherever they emerge not only in Afghanistan but at any location in the world.
[New] Through the development of weapons of mass destruction, use of chemical weapons, and aggressive posturing of its conventional forces, the DPRK threatens regional stability and global norms.
[New] For no other reason than proximity, Australia has taken the threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia more seriously than the United States.
[New] Australia will pull its remaining 80 troops from Afghanistan by September, marking the end of its longest involvement in a war.
[New] Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared Australia will withdraw its remaining 80 troops from Afghanistan by September, marking the end of its longest involvement in a war.
[New] In CAR, IHS Markit assesses that future protests in the capital, Bangui, and the civil conflict will hinder reform efforts and economic recovery in 2021.
[New] Over nearly two decades, influential military strategists in Washington and senior officers at the Pentagon have used Afghanistan to change the way the American armed forces fights its wars, and steadfastly resisted efforts to withdraw without signs Kabul could stand on its own.
[New] North Korea appears to have succeeded in developing a missile capable of delivering a nuclear weapon anywhere in the U.S. and it could be only two or three tests away from being declared combat ready.
[New] There are still risks: Iran has a long relationship with North Korea, with which it has exchanged missile technology, and officials have for years been concerned that Iran might seek to buy proven nuclear-weapons technology from the North.

Last updated: 20 April 2021

Conflict

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