Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] The Kremlin will likely remain constrained by its own war effort in Ukraine and its desire to extract concessions from the United States without sacrificing its goals in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] The US decision to go to war with Iran without any attempt to gain international consensus - or even the endorsement of Congress - sets a dangerous precedent for the unilateral use of force to achieve foreign policy goals, which could make the whole planet a lot less safe. SKY
• [New] Autonomous weapons pose a serious threat to global stability. Better Conflict Bulletin
• [New] Gold has always been the ultimate barometer of global fear, but a war involving nuclear-armed powers fundamentally alters the mechanics of how gold is traded. Mauricio Vellasquez
• [New] Today, West Asia remains unsettled by the Gaza conflict, Red Sea disruptions, US-Iran tensions, and visible diversification of Gulf alignments. Diplomatist
• [New] At a moment when Washington is already managing strategic competition in Asia and sustaining commitments in Europe, another open-ended Middle Eastern conflict risks stretching American bandwidth and weakening deterrence elsewhere. The Guardian
• [New] Russia's flouting of treaties like the Chemical Weapons Convention could escalate ahead, during any full-scale war with the West. Forbes
• [New] The worst-case scenario is a disintegration of central control in Tehran over major cities that leads to armed factions creating rival fiefdoms that pose a serious risk of civil war and national fracturing. CNN
• [New] President Donald Trump placed a huge wager by launching a massive air assault on Iran despite having done little to prepare Americans for a new Middle East war with immense risks and years of future consequences. CNN
• [New] MAJOR trading houses are halting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid threats from Iranian naval forces to shipping and the US and Israel war with Iran. Lloyd's List
• [New] The US-Israeli attacks, and Tehran's retaliation against American military bases in several countries, raise the risk of a wider war in a region that's key to global energy supplies. financialpost
• [New] In recent years, the Russia-Ukraine war demonstrated applications of unmanned systems that could generate coercive leverage. China Leadership
• [New] If China lost confidence that its information-age weapons could provide the leverage it needs to deter the United States, it might reconsider the nuclear option. China Leadership
• [New] A limited set of strikes could plausibly send oil towards $80 per barrel, while a longer conflict that causes disruptions to supply could send prices much higher - with a material effect on global inflation. City AM
• [New] Investors fear a new inflationary shock could hit major economies including the UK as a result of full-blown war between the US and Iran. City AM
• [New] The long-term consequences will likely be a large-scale increase in the number of countries who possess nuclear weapons, something that will undermine American and global security for generations to come. The New Republic
• [New] A direct military confrontation between Israel, Iran, and the United States could trigger a regional war. Business Insider
• [New] A serious conflict with Iran would be a major economic headwind, with the risk of a recession to climb sharply. Business Insider
• [New] Industry leaders reluctant to cooperate with the Pentagon on autonomous weapons development and espionage capabilities have already begun to face threats of backlash. Crux
• [New] Russia will be able to sustain its war in Ukraine throughout 2026 despite mounting economic and manpower pressures. UNITED24 Media
• [New] While the Iranian regime has not explicitly threatened the US homeland, the dynamics of the intensifying conflict with Iran suggest it is likely to attempt strikes on US territory in the event of war. OPFOR Journal
• [New] Escalating hostilities involving Iran, Israel, and various regional actors have fueled speculation that a broader regional war could draw in major powers. KIMU
• [New] The alarm in the U.S. comes from the realization that China has not only fielded a prototype of a sixth-generation aircraft before the U.S. has finalized its own NGAD/F-47 design, but that its design philosophy directly targets the key vulnerabilities of the U.S. way of war in the Pacific. Armstrong Economics

Last updated: 03 March 2026