Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] The alarm in the U.S. comes from the realization that China has not only fielded a prototype of a sixth-generation aircraft before the U.S. has finalized its own NGAD/F-47 design, but that its design philosophy directly targets the key vulnerabilities of the U.S. way of war in the Pacific. Armstrong Economics
• [New] The US president has ordered a massive buildup of naval forces in the Middle East, including repositioning aircraft carriers and other warships, leading to fears of an imminent war. The Guardian
• [New] In the future, if a nuclear accident were to occur at the Zaporizhzhia plant, or if President Vladimir Putin were to decide to use tactical nuclear weapons in the war in Europe, catastrophe and apocalypse could merge into a single terminal entity. ynetglobal
• [New] As long as Ukraine blocks the Druzhba pipeline, Hungary will block the 90-billion-euro Ukrainian war loan. Al Jazeera
• [New] The Ukraine war validated the stability-instability paradox: a lower risk of direct, large-scale clash between nuclear powers, but a higher risk of indirect conflict. FRS
• [New] The US - operating through personalised diplomacy - contemplates war against Iran because it will not give up its nuclear enrichment programme while encouraging Riyadh to adopt one. The Guardian
• [New] Britain and its European allies will be better defended as they group together to develop new air defence weapons to protect European skies. GOV.UK
• [New] The prospect of a new war in the ever volatile Horn of Africa would threaten a region already ravaged by the ongoing conflict in Sudan. The Conversation
• [New] Escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and the potential for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have introduced a significant war premium into refined product pricing. universal trades company
• [New] A major European conflict could embolden Chinese action in the Indo-Pacific. Second Line of Defense
• [New] Concerns remain that a conflict between the US and Iran could put crude flows through the Middle East at risk, which is supporting oil prices. Barchart.com
• [New] For several years the so-called war premium - reflecting the risk to the energy markets of Middle East conflicts - has been shrinking. Economic Times
• [New] Sustained protest does not by itself topple regimes in Iran, but it increases the probability that elite fracture, security defection, or external intervention will do so. Hudson Institute
• [New] While terrorism has been significantly degraded in Egypt and Libya, militancy will pose a persistent threat through much of 2026. Crisis24
• [New] The Sahel will remain one of the most lethal and fastest-growing global terrorism hotspots, with weak governance, economic fragility, and fractured security forces enabling extremist expansion. Crisis24
• [New] In Yemen, IS and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula will almost certainly exploit the ongoing civil war, targeting government positions, security forces, and infrastructure while occasionally extending operations across borders. Crisis24
• [New] Many expect 2026 to be a decisive year for the war in Ukraine. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• [New] Geopolitical conflict zones such as the Ukraine-Russia war and ongoing tensions in the Middle East have experienced numerous attacks and disruptions targeting their GNSS. ABI Research
• [New] Escalating competition between the United States and China, along with the possibility of broader regional conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, could amplify economic vulnerabilities in countries like Turkey. Turkish Minute
• [New] Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran eased today and weighed on crude prices after Iran said it had reached a general agreement with the US on a nuclear deal that would lift sanctions on Iran and reduce the risk of war in the Middle East. Barchart.com
• [New] Washington will inevitably be dragged into a conflict with Russia if deterrence fails. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] A NATO-Russian war could expand out of a second, full-scale armed clash in Ukraine. Foreign Affairs Magazine

Last updated: 24 February 2026