Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] The Strait of Hormuz has become almost impassable, especially with the increased conflict between Iran and the US, posing a high risk of missile strikes and hybrid attacks during kinetic and non-kinetic vessels' operations. All About Shipping
• [New] The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into more than a maritime chokepoint: it is now a live test of how quickly kinetic conflict can expose operational technology and cyber vulnerabilities across shipping, ports, terminals and energy-linked maritime infrastructure. All About Shipping
• [New] Energy markets were thrown into chaos due to Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions, sending crude oil prices surging back over US$100 a barrel. Joseph Palmer and Sons
• [New] Oil could reach a record high of USD200 per barrel if the Middle East war drags on until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Zero Carbon Analytics
• [New] Escalation of the Iran War has evolved into significant energy price shocks and increasing risk of supply shortages for Asia, the most exposed region to Iran War. MUFG Research
• [New] China faces greater strategic exposure to a Middle East war than Europe or the U.S., with roughly 45-50% of its oil imports tied to Gulf supply and the Strait of Hormuz, making disruption a potential supply risk rather than merely a price shock. First Business Bank
• [New] The ongoing crisis in the Middle East is exposing a central vulnerability in the global economy: the dependence on fossil fuels flowing through regions affected by conflict, a situation which is strengthening the UN's case for a faster transition to cheaper, more resilient renewable power. United Nations
• [New] The recent events indicate a surge in conflict-related maritime attacks, including drone and missile strikes in high-risk areas like the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and parts of the Black Sea, which add to the risks of the activities of criminals. All About Shipping
• [New] Just one month of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could cost the Arab region $194 billion, shrink its economy by up to 6%, and push four million more people into poverty. Just Security
• [New] A governing vision that directs tax dollars to the Pentagon amid an unpopular Iran war represents a political risk for the White House, especially against a backdrop of spiking gasoline prices. gCaptain
• [New] There could be two hikes while two-year gilt yields, a proxy for where bond investors believe interest rates will come to, jumped to 4.4% on fears that the Iran war could drag on. City AM
• [New] Inflation could now worsen after the U.S. and Israel started a war against Iran, sending global energy prices sharply higher. NPR
• [New] In light of escalating conflict in Iran, the FDF expects food inflation to be much higher - reaching between 9-10% by the end of the year. FoodManufacture.co.uk
• [New] Food inflation could soar higher than 9% by the end of 2026 as war in the Middle East risks pushing up the cost of living for British households. Perspective Media
• [New] Even a short-lived conflict could shave ~0.4 percentage points off EU growth next year, while a more protracted disruption could reduce growth by up to 0.6 percentage points in both 2026 and 2027, relative to earlier forecasts. First Business Bank
• [New] The Iran war is not an anomaly; it is the latest reminder of a structural vulnerability. youth4planet
• [New] Kenya will probably maintain its benchmark at 8.75% on Wednesday as officials gauge the impact of the Iran war. financialpost
• [New] Average vendor times deteriorated to the greatest degree in nearly three-and-a-half years as the war in the Middle East led to noticeable disruptions in transportation and exacerbated stock shortages at vendors. Edge and Odds -
• [New] The maritime environment is facing with an array of complex risk factors that include piracy, armed conflict, and the criminalization of migration routes, such as the Darien Gap (a natural barrier between North and South America). All About Shipping
• [New] Trump ultimatums and strikes have countered Iranian blockade threats, which could result in $2 Trillion economies at risk of being lost to the US-Iran conflict. All About Shipping
• [New] The PRC could use AI-enabled swarm technology to overwhelm advanced air defences in Taiwan and US military infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific during a conflict. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] Imagine a world where artificial super intelligence conducts combined arms warfare across all domains of war, using quantum computing, robotics, predictive logistics and nanotechnology. U.S. Army Acquisition Support Center
• [New] Critically, China's approach to AI governance in weapons development is permissive by design, an asymmetry that creates both a competitive challenge and an ethical risk differential that allied governments are actively managing. RNG Strategy Consulting

Last updated: 07 April 2026