Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] Adding another layer of complexity, industry analysts warn of an imminent drone war targeting global shipping infrastructure. TheFinanceBulletins Media Group
• [New] Escalating conflict in Yemen is killing and injuring a growing number of civilians, the UN human rights chief warned on Monday, as Houthi rebels also strike Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping linked to the wider Iran-US confrontation. United Nations
• [New] The conflict in the Middle East, which is causing high volatility in commodity prices and significant disruptions to supply chains, is weighing on trade. Coface
• [New] During and after a conflict, China could inflict severe economic retaliation. Hudson Institute
• [New] The problem for Bangkok is that Thailand's geographical location could be more important in a Taiwan conflict than it might want. Hudson Institute
• [New] The UK and New Zealand will have limited relevance in various Taiwan conflict scenarios; Australia might well be heavily involved in a US-led effort; Singapore might well be forcibly drawn in; and Malaysia will do all it can to sit it out completely. Hudson Institute
• [New] Some Southeast Asian states might be able to achieve a certain level of wartime neutrality even if a conflict over Taiwan were to spread to Southeast Asia. Hudson Institute
• [New] Some interlocutors criticized the Philippines for willingly allowing itself to risk being entrapped in a US-China conflict by hosting US military assets and adopting a more confrontational approach to China. Hudson Institute
• [New] Beijing intends to ensure that a material and ideational structure based on China's centrality and dominance will compel or seduce Southeast Asian elites to favor Chinese interests, especially when there is tension or conflict with the United States. Hudson Institute
• [New] Vietnam does not expect that other countries will come to its aid militarily in the event of a conflict with China. Hudson Institute
• [New] Most worryingly, cost pressures remain high, largely due to energy prices and supply disruption linked to the Middle East conflict alongside high staffing costs. City AM
• [New] Disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East and soaring fuel prices are expected to cut global airline profitability in half in 2026. Luxus Plus
• [New] The spike in oil and gas prices, as a result of the Middle East conflict, has fuelled concerns that inflation will begin to rise further. Money to the Masses
• [New] The Iran war has slashed transit traffic at Middle Eastern airports, creating opportunities for hubs in Asia and beyond - at least for now. The New York Times
• [New] Ultimately, we maintain a posture that the bar to raise rates by the Fed remains high and will likely hinge on whether the conflict in Iran that is driving headline inflation higher moves into at minimum a more moderate state that allows for renewed flow of tanker traffic. Rhame & Gorrell Wealth Management | The Woodlands Finan
• [New] A more decentralized NC2 structure alongside frontline deployments of tactical nuclear weapons will likely result in a much lower North Korean nuclear threshold. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] North Korea is likely increasingly fielding nuclear-capable weapons on the frontline with South Korea, which could increase the risk of nuclear escalation. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] Israel and the United States have reached an understanding that, during the initial stage of Hamas's disarmament, weapons handed over by the terrorist organization will be transferred to the ISF, headed by US Maj.-Gen. Counter Extremism Project
• [New] The biggest risk of all is that the conflict in the Middle East drags on, which could threaten further upheaval in energy markets and push inflation higher than anticipated. BBC News
• Clauses concerning the impact of war, such as force majeure provisions, may well be triggered - a risk that may widen in geographic scope as Yemen's Iranian-allied Houthi rebels threaten vessels in the Red Sea. Mishcon de Reya LLP
• The mutual defence pact, which does not name a specific threat, was signed more than five months into the United States-Israel war on Iran, a conflict that has pulled missile and drone fire onto Gulf oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, and shut down much of the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera
• A widening of the war amongst US allies (Saudi Arabia) against Iran and its allies (Houthis) has put passage in the Rea Sea via the Bab-al Mandab Strait at risk and could further complicate supply chains for Asia demand and keep both global oil and LNG prices further supported. Constellation

Last updated: 25 August 2026