Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] The 2026 forecast for IBM is a high-stakes tug-of-war between its emergence as a Quantum-First powerhouse and the structural disruption of its legacy consulting moats. Bingx Exchange
• [New] The easing of the Iran conflict through the recent signing of Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran has reduced, but not eliminated, one of the most significant key risks facing the global economy. KPMG
• [New] The global issues the world is facing will persist, as leaders continue to deal with the fallout of both the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East. City AM
• [New] The key mid-2020s shift is from election disinformation to wartime information threats: fabricated missile attacks, repurposed pre-war AI art, and downed aircraft amplify panic and misrepresent events. Valdai Club
• [New] The increased security policy concerns resulting from the war in Ukraine are expected to increase national expenditure for military preparedness, which includes satellite-based communication. Ovzon
• [New] The context of an uncompleted war with the US and Israel poses security threats from terrorism and crowd control. The Guardian
• [New] The South China Sea will likely be a critical staging ground in that hypothetical war, so even just by dint of geography, the fates of Taiwan and the South China Sea are intertwined. Acled
• [New] A conflict between the US and China over Taiwan could spill over into the South China Sea, potentially expanding the Philippines' role in US defence plans for Taiwan. Acled
• [New] Although the likelihood of open conflict remains limited, any lethal escalation between Beijing and Manila could trigger the United States-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty and draw the US into a broader regional conflict. Acled
• [New] Armed conflict currently ranks as the third highest global risk, with high-intensity wars ongoing in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Sudan. NEXD
• [New] The 2026 manufacturing industry output forecast has been revised down from 2.9% to 2.6% amid the US-Israel war with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Automation.com
• [New] Political risks in Sub-Saharan Africa have risen modestly following the US-Iran conflict and the resulting increase in energy prices. Fitch Solutions
• [New] 2026 marks the beginning of the Panic Cycle, 2027 carries the highest risk of broader international war, and the economic consequences will intensify into 2028 as recession and civil unrest spread. / Ukraine Armstrong Economics
• [New] Moscow could continue the war in Ukraine for years, sacrifice its own economy, and expand hybrid operations against NATO members, including provocations in the Baltic region. Armstrong Economics
• [New] Concerns over escalating conflict involving the US, Iran and Israel increased fears around energy security, LNG supplies and potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Troo
• [New] Wall Street will be laser-focused on corporate margin durability, tracking how well companies are absorbing higher input costs caused by the Iran war. Yahoo! Finance
• [New] The bitter irony of the Ukraine war is that despite Russia's battlefield challenges and economic vulnerabilities, the United States and Europe have failed to fully wield economic or military pressure. Center for Strategic and International Studies
• [New] The US-China rivalry, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Covid pandemic, increased volatility in financial markets and continuing threat of climate change have diminished the trust in the rule based global trading system. The Financial Express
• [New] The war with Iran could prove a decisive factor in the elections coming this fall in America and in Israel. Pearls and Irritations
• [New] The conflict in the Middle East has caused major disruptions in global oil markets, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in recent history. Bank of Singapore
• [New] Risks are tilted toward a more hawkish Selic rate and largely depend on the duration of the US-Iran conflict. Fitch Solutions

Last updated: 07 July 2026