Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] A diminished Russia's war in Ukraine becomes a frozen one, while conflict over Taiwan turns hot and threatens world war. Atlantic Council
• [New] Russia could launch a new war against the Baltic states within two years after a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, as well as a local war against one neighbour within six months. UNN
• [New] The expiration on Thursday of New START, which restricted the United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads each, marks the first time in decades that there is no treaty to curtail the positioning of the planet's most destructive weapons, sparking fears of a fresh arms race. Space War
• [New] The Kremlin's financial situation is becoming increasingly dire and could come to a head in a matter of months as oil revenue shrinks while President Vladimir Putin shows no intention of ending his war on Ukraine. Fortune
• [New] Russia's demand that Ukraine withdraw from the remainder of Donetsk Oblast without preconditions and the Kremlin's rejection of a ceasefire to conduct negotiations are further evidence that Russia will accept nothing short of its full war demands. Critical Threats
• [New] The Kremlin likely sees an opportunity to manipulate the US-led negotiations process into another means through which Russia can achieve its unchanging military and political objectives, which it has failed to achieve in nearly four years of war. Critical Threats
• [New] In a conventional war between Pakistan and India, for example over Kashmir, Islamabad might make surprising advances thanks to backing and armaments from Beijing. GIS Reports
• [New] Anti-Ethiopian federal government Amhara ethno-nationalist Fano militias have taken advantage of troop redeployments from Amhara to Tigray, which could constrain the Ethiopian federal government from initiating a war in Tigray. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia has conducted test launches for placing a nuclear weapon into orbit, which the Biden administration quietly warned Congress about two years ago. The New York Times
• [New] A chief concern of many American policymakers is that Washington will soon face not just a single peer adversary, as in the Cold War, but two superpower rivals, China and Russia. The New York Times
• [New] There seems to be a general fear that Russia may attack NATO and EU members, once the war in Ukraine comes to a standstill. Toda Peace Institute
• [New] The end of the Ukraine-Russian war could be a historical turning point. Toda Peace Institute
• [New] With no sign of an imminent end to Russia's four-year all-out war against Ukraine, and the U.S. taking military action in Iran, Syria, Venezuela and Africa under President Donald Trump, many voters see a growing risk of global conflict. Politico
• [New] Should the war in Ukraine evolve into a prolonged frozen conflict, Russia will rearm its military in pursuit of Vladimir Putin's imperial ambitions. Atlantic Council
• [New] TSMC will continue to expand its overseas plants - especially in Japan, the U.S., and Europe - to address the looming risks of a military conflict between Taiwan and China. Yahoo Finance
• [New] Sudan's war, Pakistan's demographic unrest, Red Sea shipping vulnerability, North Korea's military convergence with Russia, South Asia's nuclear instability are not invisible threats - and yet all are under-prioritized. Jeff McCausland
• [New] Sudan's war and the humanitarian tragedy that has resulted now echoes through global commerce as civil conflict, regional rivalries, threats from proxies, and maritime insecurity converge. Jeff McCausland
• [New] China's vast industrial base allows it to manufacture ships, missiles and other weapons on a faster and larger scale than the US, suggesting it could sustain a high-intensity conflict longer, even while taking significant losses. Insurance Journal
• [New] Russia will likely accelerate integration of air-to-air capabilities on one-way attack drones, potentially forcing Ukraine toward standoff intercept methods (longer-range weapons, unmanned interceptors) or enhanced aircraft survivability measures (missile warning systems, countermeasures, armour). Drone Warfare
• [New] The US conversion of Cold War-era Black Hawk helicopters into autonomous drones suggests a cost-effective force multiplication strategy that could disrupt PLA operations in a Taiwan Strait conflict, particularly when deployed from allied bases across the Indo-Pacific theater. Drone Warfare
• [New] If the war in Ukraine were to end, it could pressure global wheat prices to lower. Texas Farm Bureau
• [New] The year 2026 arrives with looming threats of nuclear weapon employment more than ever, as the world is faced with eroding arms control agreements and the global environment seems increasingly fragile. Global Security Review

Last updated: 17 February 2026