Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] A US war on Iran might turn Iraq into a battleground, a base for retaliation, or a tool of military pressure. Space War
• [New] There was hope that European NATO members would eventually recover from the devastation of the war and field their own able military to the best of their abilities. The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com
• [New] Sceptics of a strike say it could be costly - noting there are tens of thousands of US troops within striking range of Iran - as well as the start of an unpredictable, prolonged war. HuffPost UK
• [New] With the US withdrawal from its leadership role, leaders in Berlin, Paris, and Brussels have an opportunity to define a European way of war that addresses their security needs without being overwhelmed by American interests. gmfus
• [New] The CNN report comes as Iran has taken steps to rebuild parts of its nuclear program that could potentially support the development of a nuclear weapon. Critical Threats
• [New] A significant portion of Iran's capability will focus internally, identifying protest leaders and blocking communications. CSCIS
• [New] Iranian authorities have signalled that they are ready to defend their country as the United States continues to threaten a military attack, amid regional diplomatic efforts to avoid a new conflict. Al Jazeera
• [New] An Iraqi militia attack on the United States could prompt some Iraqi political parties to distance themselves from Iranian-backed militias, particularly if militia actions risk dragging Iraq into a conflict with the United States. Critical Threats
• [New] CTP-ISW continues to assess that the SDF's leadership may fracture over a decision to agree to Shara's terms for the SDF to integrate into the Syrian state, which would risk instigating serious conflict between government forces and Kurdish fighters. Critical Threats
• [New] Demilitarization of Gaza will include decommissioning weapons through an agreed process supported by an internationally funded buyback program. Just Security
• [New] Hopefully Iran will soon 'Sit at the Negotiating Table' and negotiate a fair and balanced deal, WITHOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS, a deal that benefits all parties. IDNFinancials
• [New] If the U.N. is to survive in 2026 intact, it will need to stop fixating on its own internal reforms and refocus on the core purpose for which it was created: preventing great-power confrontation from escalating into World War III. United Nations University
• [New] Ukraine will increasingly rely on electronic warfare and directed energy weapons to achieve sustainable cost-exchange ratios against mass drone threats. Drone Warfare
• [New] Kremlin officials continue to reiterate Russia's commitment to its original war aims and reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine, amid continued reporting that negotiations will resume in the coming days. Critical Threats
• [New] The outcome of the war in Ukraine will shape European security for a generation. Edelman Global Advisory
• [New] An Israeli report warns of a rapid rise in Jewish terrorism against Palestinians in the West Bank, saying it has become a widespread phenomenon with serious security and strategic implications. Counter Extremism Project
• [New] The number of people reported killed in Iran's protest crackdown has surged as rights groups continue to verify suspected fatalities, with the United Nations warning the total could be more than 20,000. Counter Extremism Project
• [New] The United States plans to deploy a new, multilayered missile defence system, Golden Dome, that will include space-based interceptors, increasing the probability of conflict in space and likely fueling a new space-based arms race. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
• [New] Moscow's threats of tactical nuclear use in Ukraine, a lowering of the nuclear threshold, suggested the feasibility of limited nuclear war. ICMGLT
• [New] Geo-economic confrontation has emerged as the top global risk, most likely to trigger a major crisis in 2026, replacing armed conflict and climate shocks at the top of the risk rankings. The Daily Star
• [New] Russian spies will step up attacks against the UK as part of an undeclared war on the West. BBC News

Last updated: 03 February 2026