Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] The U.S. will have to out-think Russia and China to prevent them from using nuclear weapons to resolve a future crisis. USNI News
• [New] The DPRK's access to a more overwhelming war deterrent aimed at countering the U.S.-led hostile states' military threat is an essential requirement for maintaining the balance of forces on the Korean Peninsula and ensuring the security of the regional situation. Space War
• [New] Sluggish demand and relatively high supply outside of the OPEC + countries contributed to the relatively narrow trading range for crude oil despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea. EIA - Energy Information Administration
• [New] A ban could worsen trade tensions between the US and China that were already strained after export curbs on advanced American semiconductor technology to Beijing. SKY
• [New] The threat of a devastating trade war has forced Canada's political leaders to set aside policy and ideological rifts, with most projecting a unified front. The Guardian
• [New] India has been crucial to Apple's strategy to lessen its reliance on China amid trade tensions between Washington and Beijing that could escalate further when Trump returns to the White House next week. Bloomberg
• [New] A threatened wave of tariffs by incoming US president Trump could make trade tensions worse, lower investment, and disrupt supply chains across the world. BBC News
• [New] Trump's unpredictable and transactional approach to diplomacy elevates concerns about flashpoints where tensions are already running high: the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, and the Taiwan Strait. Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada
• [New] America now mostly relies on China for its supplies of some key materials, and Beijing could wield its access to them as a weapon in a trade war. FDD
• [New] The ECB has warned of weaker-than-anticipated growth, revising its eurozone growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.1% from the previous estimate of 1.3%, citing heightened uncertainty stemming from the threat of a global trade war. EXANTE Next Generation Investment Company
• [New] The South China Sea is poised to become a geopolitical hotspot, with potential shipping disruptions due to rising tensions between China, the United States, and regional allies. Dryad Global Ltd
• [New] Global trade is likely to face increased frictions and fragmentation with the broad-based trade war between Washington and other countries now a tangible risk scenario. MarketScreener
• [New] There is the continuing war in Ukraine along with a rising risk of confrontation with China over its claims around the Spratly Islands in the South China sea. EXANTE Next Generation Investment Company
• [New] The outsize contribution that exports make to the Chinese economy remains a major vulnerability, on the eve of a new Trump presidency in 2025 that could heighten trade tensions with the US and EU. China Banking News
• [New] Once acquired and deployed, Iran could use its nuclear weapon as an instrument of coercive diplomacy to support its drive for regional hegemony. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
• [New] In a world shaped by policy uncertainty and trade tensions, developing economies will need bold and far-reaching policies to seize untapped opportunities for cross-border cooperation. World Bank
• [New] In the Gaza war, the US supports Israel while Russia backs Iran, which has repeatedly threatened Israel with a larger war. RTE
• [New] External risk factors include geopolitical conflicts, trade tensions between the U.S. and China, China's economic slowdown, excess supply from China leading to low-cost exports to other countries, including Thailand, and increasingly volatile global climate change. krungsri.com
• [New] External risks - such as intensifying trade and technology wars - may further hinder economic growth, along with geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan, and between China and the U.S., which could accelerate disruptions and decoupling from the global supply chain. krungsri.com
• Global supply chains continue to be susceptible to shocks, including labour strikes and increased geopolitical tensions, namely in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Asia, which could result in inflationary effects on food, energy, and other commodity markets. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Last updated: 21 January 2025