Conflict

• [New] The Biden administration's search for cooperation with China in tackling global challenges will be beneficial for India, easing regional tensions and strengthening multilateralism.
• [New] One reason for Tehran to accept the easing of the Saudi-Qatari tensions could be fear of a US action against Iran during the last two weeks of the Trump presidency.
• [New] The US-China trade war in some form will still be with us, as will the new Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement between Southeast Asia and China.
• [New] Belgian foreign trade, which contributed significantly to economic growth in 2018, risks being affected in 2021 by the weakening of economic growth in the eurozone, by the tensions in international trade (including between the US and the eurozone) and Brexit.
• [New] The Chinese government will likely not agree to reducing its amount of nuclear weapons because the U.S. and Russia have far more warheads.
• [New] Former GOP State Department official Jeffrey Bergner argues that as the face of war is shaped more and more by standoff weapons, drones, and cyberwarfare, it seems less and less likely that Congress will assert its role in authorizing military actions.
• [New] In the year of 2021, Chinese companies will keep seeking a listing or a secondary listing on Hong Kong Stock Exchange amid ongoing US-China tensions and more stringent oversight on foreign issuers in the US.
• [New] Threats of violent Washington protests, critical Senate elections and a stalling US jobs recovery threaten an unsettling start to 2021 for the world's biggest economy.
• [New] As a Security Council member, India will not hesitate to raise its voice against the enemies of humanity, including terrorism, and will always speak in support of peace, security and prosperity.
• [New] Israel and the United States will increase attacks against Iran in the final days of the Trump administration, which gave unprecedented support to the government of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
• [New] Risks for 2021 - a year of lower tail risks and more predictability, but the potential risk of bubbles forming - Geopolitical risks will remain omnipresent, notably the China-US and China-RoW tensions.
• [New] Demand for U.S. barrels will depend on how well the global economy fares in the coming years after its deepest recession since World War II.
• [New] Despite the current pandemic situation affecting the globe, geopolitical tension has significantly increased in the Middle East and Turkey and will likely continued till the end of 2021.
• [New] Coronavirus-spurred growth in the technology sector will help drive merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the Asia Pacific in 2021, bankers and lawyers predict, with the potential easing of Sino-United States tensions likely to revive outbound investment.
• [New] In the last five years, following the invasion from Russia and the annexation of Crimea, Sweden has regularly increased its military budget, with plans to spend just under 2% of its gross domestic product on national defense by 2025.
• Some specific areas to watch in 2021 include the unpredictable future of Canada's minority government, Europe's continuing political dysfunction and simmering U.S.-China trade tensions.
• The effort to vaccinate against COVID-19 in 2021 will be the largest mobilization of resources, people and planning since the Second World War.
• 2021 will be a decisive year for climate change, marking the start of the sustainability wars in which Europe, the US and China will fight for global leadership in green technology.
• The British government has approved the largest rise in its defense budget since the end of the Cold War, with £16.5 billion in additional funding made available for spending, with a significant proportion to be invested in the increasing global threat of cyber security.

Last updated: 19 January 2021