Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] Geo-economic confrontation has emerged as the top global risk, most likely to trigger a major crisis in 2026, replacing armed conflict and climate shocks at the top of the risk rankings. The Daily Star
• [New] Russian spies will step up attacks against the UK as part of an undeclared war on the West. BBC News
• [New] Iran's leaders have left open the possibility that they will try again to obtain a nuclear weapon, including by refusing to engage in meaningful negotiations. SKY
• [New] Washington is moving the USS Abraham Lincoln supercarrier, along with its strike group of supporting vessels, towards the Middle East in a move that has raised fears of more US strikes on Iran in the aftermath of the 12-day war with Israel in June. Al Jazeera
• [New] Russia's approach suggests a strategic wager: that NATO's political caution, legal constraints, and internal divisions will limit its ability to impose meaningful costs for actions below the threshold of war. Hungarian Conservative
• [New] Energy shipping is now firmly in the crosshairs of modern conflict, and managing that risk will be as critical in 2026 as managing fuel costs or emissions compliance. gCaptain
• [New] Taiwan's outlying islands are generally easier targets than Taiwan itself, because of their proximity to the PRC and because Beijing likely expects Taiwan (and the United States) would hesitate to risk war to defend them. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] If the Ukraine war draws to a close, China's advantage could disappear. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Russia's war in Ukraine shapes China's window of opportunity. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] A key quest for BRICS and India is the urgency and imperative for global institutional reforms, especially that of the UN and UNSC, which is threatening to become irrelevant, having been consigned to the post World War II mindset of victor and the vanquished of the P - 5 veto powers. The Standard
• [New] Russia's aggressive posture and strains in U.S.-NATO unity increase the risk of direct conflict. Sahm
• [New] BCA highlights five major threats: a global oil shock from Iran, a Chinese tech breakthrough, Chinese power projection, Russia-NATO conflict, and a potential U.S. exit from NATO. Sahm
• [New] U.S. GDP growth is at risk in the event of a war between Russia and NATO, putting long-term treasuries - of which foreign governments hold a lot - at risk assuming tensions between the U.S. and Europe grow. Investopedia
• [New] In 2026, weaponised artificial intelligence will redefine conflict in cyber space. Cyber Daily
• [New] The electoral campaign comes as fears of a reignited conflict with neighbouring Eritrea are growing. allAfrica.com
• [New] Most recently, global insurers have expanded their commitment to cyber risk, and recent legal cases involving war exclusions language related to the NotPetya attacks has provided greater clarity on coverage. Cybersecurity Dive
• [New] Conflict between the SDF and Syrian government may continue in the coming days and weeks that destabilizes northern Syria and threatens US interests in Syria. Critical Threats
• [New] Low-level conflict, particularly in Macomia, Muidumbe, and Mocimboa da Praia districts, will continue to shape people's lives in Cabo Delgado in 2026. Acled
• [New] Trump's threats of war, from Venezuela to Iran and even Greenland, expose the priorities of the ruling class: limitless resources for militarism and repression, austerity for health care and all social needs. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] The escalation of risks of a new trade war between the US and the European Union allowed gold to renew its record high with a sense of deja vu. FxPro.News
• [New] A China-Taiwan armed conflict has moved from Medium to High Risk, while political violence in the United States has risen from Low to Medium Risk for the EU. European Union Institute for Security Studies

Last updated: 27 January 2026