Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] If diplomatic efforts continue to fail, the conflict risks evolving into a prolonged contest over global trade routes, with consequences extending far beyond the Middle East and affecting inflation, energy security, and economic growth worldwide. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] Maintaining freedom of navigation while avoiding a broader regional conflict will require close coordination with Gulf partners, European allies, and major Asian energy importers. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] Iran has threatened to disrupt additional strategic maritime routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of a broader regional conflict that could severely impact global energy supplies and international trade. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] Lagged spillovers from the Middle East conflict and uncertainty surrounding energy and freight costs will likely moderate domestic demand and momentum, with household spending and business investment likely to be affected. ST
• [New] Escalating conflict and a worsening humanitarian situation in Myanmar, along with limited assistance and opportunities in refugee camps in Bangladesh, contribute to increasing numbers of people attempting perilous sea journeys in search of safety and protection, they pointed out. The Guardian
• [New] Global war strains pose risks to societal stability via import shortages, potentially driving inflation that disproportionately impacts urban populations reliant on foreign goods like diesel and manufactured items. Grokipedia
• [New] Through coordination within BRICS, Brazil might participate in collective declarations promoting multipolar governance and sovereign equality, reinforcing a unified stance against unilateral pressures that could compel alignment in a polarized war. Grokipedia
• [New] Brazil could invoke Article 2 of the UN Charter, which prohibits the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, to assert its sovereign right to neutrality and deter encroachments on its non-belligerent status during a global conflict. Grokipedia
• [New] In a hypothetical World War III, Brazil is projected to pursue neutrality, consistent with its foreign policy tradition of independence and avoidance of entanglement in great power rivalries. Grokipedia
• [New] The recent escalation in the conflict in Iran has increased oil prices, which will likely lead to an increase in the inflation rate in July. HubbardOBrienEconomics.com Blog
• [New] Persistent conflict could trigger $0.06 to $0.08 in incremental EPS erosion per quarter. Bingx Exchange
• [New] Discover if the NVIDIA partnership and ChampionX integration can propel SLB to its $83 price target, or if persistent regional conflict and rising logistics costs will force a retreat to $48. Bingx Exchange
• [New] The Bank of England must keep interest rates on hold for as long as risks from the Iran war persist, the International Monetary Fund has said. City AM
• [New] The fresh calls follow Natwest and Lloyds both upgrading their income targets for the year on the back of interest rates forecasted to stay higher for longer due to the conflict in the Middle East. City AM
• [New] The ECB raised rates to 2.25% in June and signalled it will stay restrictive as the Middle East conflict fans fresh inflation pressures across the euro area. The Rio Times
• [New] Global disinflation has stalled warning that the war shock and a repricing of risk remain key threats to the 3.0% growth outlook for 2026. The Rio Times
• [New] The Trump administration's 2026 counterterrorism strategy identifies three primary threats: Islamist terrorism, narco-terrorism, and violent left-wing extremists, including Anarchists and Anti-Fascists. Al Jazeera
• [New] A new Gartner research note outlines seven ways the Iran war could disrupt semiconductor production, AI infrastructure and global tech supply chains. Supply Chain 24/7
• [New] The combination of increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence, and the conflict in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine could enable criminals to carry out hostile cyber-attacks against businesses and critical infrastructure. The Guardian
• [New] Beyond the war in Iran and fuel price instability, brands may face new tariffs of 10-12.5% on imports from 60 different countries that could take effect in August. Modern Retail
• [New] Terrorist organizations - including Boko Haram and ISIS - are systematically exploiting every major AI chatbot, from ChatGPT to Claude to Gemini, to plan attacks and develop weapons. AIpster
• [New] El Nino would compound disruption caused by the Iran war by adding food supply chain woes to already higher prices, and shortages of fertiliser and energy supplies. The Guardian

Last updated: 21 July 2026