Global Scans · Geopolitics · Weekly Summary

• [New] Ukrainian politics is and will remain boisterous and fractious. CEPA
• [New] Staffing Ukraine-related missions in foreign ministries and international organizations with long-term experts, establishing standing parliamentary groups, and creating Ukraine-focused academic and research institutions will ensure sustained intellectual and political engagement. CEPA
• [New] Without adequate support for democratic institution-building, Ukraine risks sliding into a fragile hybrid political regime beset by weak rule of law, captured institutions, and limited political competition. CEPA
• [New] External factors - primarily U.S. military threats and ripple effects from a Venezuela humanitarian and security crisis - could overwhelm Colombia's capacity to implement the 2016 Peace Accords and could fundamentally alter the political calculus for all parties. Council on Foreign Relations
• [New] Colombia's congressional and presidential elections in March and May of 2026, respectively, increase the risk of political violence. Council on Foreign Relations
• [New] Political variables-mitigating geopolitical risks, securing policy support, or access to critical minerals - are the main priority for 2026. JD Supra
• [New] Europe's existential test is whether its political experiment of pooled sovereignty can be leveraged and expanded in a world where Russia threatens its security, China threatens its economy, and the United States has become a more uncertain partner. Atlantic Council
• [New] Russian offensives have consistently fallen short of their aims and although Moscow hoped it could exhaust Western political will, Western support for Ukraine has proved enduring. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] With attention shifting to more pressing geopolitical risks, changing political priorities in the US, and the lacklustre outcomes of recent climate summits, new barriers have been raised for global commitments towards the UN 2030 Agenda. Euromonitor
• [New] To sacrifice the Indus Waters Treaty on the altar of political retaliation is to endanger not just Pakistan's future, but the very possibility of peaceful coexistence in South Asia. Kashmir Media Service
• [New] If political and financial conditions stabilize, additional Venezuelan supply could reinforce downward price pressure - particularly as global inventories build. Energy Politics
• [New] Donald Trump's use of force against Iran and Venezuela and threat to use it against Greenland, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are widely seen as representing a turning point in international relations, linked to the rise of authoritarianism in domestic politics. E-International Relations
• [New] NATO itself still has a lot of political and military potential that has not been fully used to dilute the risk of a full US security withdrawal from Europe. Elcano Royal Institute
• [New] The second major risk is policy uncertainty, as demonstrated by the 99% collapse in renewable investment in Alberta after a sudden policy change, which makes political stability a critical factor for investors. EnkiAI - Find the right insight
• [New] Some American observers expect China's political structure to drastically change in ways similar to the shifts that brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Russia wants to expand its military and political opportunities and considers a direct clash with the West highly likely, if not unavoidable, in the near future. Atlantic Council
• [New] Strongly nationalist and supported by the Russian Orthodox Church, the Russian political system follows centuries of Russian history as an authoritarian and autocratic regime preoccupied with expansion and external threats. Atlantic Council
• [New] As one expert notes, Russia wants to expand its military and political opportunities in the face of the West and considers a direct clash with the West highly probable, if not unavoidable. Atlantic Council
• [New] Taiwan's defense-budget deadlock shows how internal political constraints can directly disrupt U.S. arms-transfer timelines, reinforcing Washington's growing emphasis on self-help and raising the risk that allies fall back in priority queues if legislative follow-through falters. Fault Lines
• [New] Eurasia Group's Top Risks for 2026, which highlighted the risk that some AI companies will adopt extractive business models that threaten social and political stability and that water is becoming a loaded weapon in several of the world's most dangerous rivalries. Global Shield's Newsletter
• The world faces a crossroads threatening the rules-based international order, with the resurgence of power politics and declining respect for international law. Al Jazeera Centre for Studies
• While China has grown to become a dominant player on the global political and economic stage, the less predictable US trade and foreign policies create an opportunity for the European Union - and the EURO - to grow its global influence. Feed & Additive Magazine

Last updated: 22 February 2026