Geopolitics

• [New] A recovery plan based on lower-carbon emissions could not only make significant emissions reductions needed to battle climate change, but also create more economic growth and jobs than a high-carbon recovery plan would.
• [New] Financial / Political corruption (32%), The peak levels of this concern are in Peru (62%) and Malaysia (60%) followed by South Africa (55%) then Spain (54%).
• The gradual expansion of the G20 agenda responds to the fact that managing risks of a non-economic nature, such as geopolitical tensions, climate change, migration and terrorism, have become ever more critical to the stability of the global economy.
• Victories on the state level, if built upon in the 2020 election, could give the Democrats an advantage in gerrymandering, i.e. electoral redistricting, which is an important political process in the United States.
• The World Health Organization will begin investigating the source of the novel coronavirus after its efforts to balance science and politics resulted in China blocking international efforts early in the pandemic.
• As a result of US political processes and North Korean calculations, tensions - largely dormant on and around the Korean peninsula for three years - could reignite with a vengeance at the end of 2020.
• China's top leadership will next month lay out its strategy for 2021-2025 that will include ramping up domestic consumption and making more critical technology at home, in a bid to insulate the world's second-biggest economy from worsening geopolitical tensions and fraying supply chains.
• Despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent political uncertainty surrounding its elections, Guyana is still projected by the International Monetary Fund to be the fastest growing economy in the world in 2020.
• The rise of populist leaders and messaging in political debates in many countries, the crisis of multilateralism and the deterioration of global norms, and the global COVID-19 pandemic are all threatening societies around the world.
• Violence levels in the United States could rise over the next year depending on political polarization, the persistence of the Covid-19 pandemic, worsening economic conditions, growing concerns about immigration (whether real or perceived), racial injustice, or other factors.
• In the past two years, a majority of CEE countries have become disillusioned as China's economic promises have not fully materialized and security risks associated with Chinese companies have come to the fore.
• The partnership between Ukravtodor and the EBRD on corporate governance and anti-corruption practices is another indication that Ukraine has the political will to remove opportunities for any corruption.
• As foreign actors intensify their efforts to influence the outcome of the 2020 U.S. elections, they could use online journals to advance and launder misinformation and disinformation to denigrate or support specific candidates or political parties.
• If the Democratic challenger Joe Biden wins the November U.S. presidential elections, Mansur predicted no major change in global politics as well as in Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy, with India as a regional partner.
• Russian threat actors have attacked more than 200 organizations including political campaigns, advocacy groups, parties, and political consultants.
• The French government in particular has made clear that it expects fast, concrete results: specifically, a hydrogen-powered aircraft that enters service by 2035.
• Now that India, the European Union, and the United States seem to have settled on banning Chinese tech products, other countries with active disputes against China could see that as their cue to follow suit at the next opportunity.
• The French government in particular has made clear that it expects a hydrogen aircraft, for which it has provided research funding, to enter service by 2035.
• 2020 has seen dramatic disruptions, not only due to the COVID-19 pandemic but in geopolitics, the world economy, the media, religion and all levels of society.
• The Kremlin will not allow any distance to develop between its positions and China's, barring a change in the trajectory of Chinese policies that is detrimental to Russian interests.
• 2020 has seen unprecedented forced disruption from a global pandemic, the exit of the UK from the European Union, global political movements and an even stronger spotlight on climate change.

Last updated: 22 November 2020