Coronavirus

Future potential spread of the coronavirus is impacting world trade and threatens a global economic recession and inflection point. For the first time, Illness is now a major driving force. We first reported this virus way back in 2010 and regularly since July 2015 as a predictable surprise: a known unknown to most. It is not a Black Swan; it was foreseen! Forewarned is forearmed and forearmed is protection against unpleasant possibilities and this inflection point will most likely change everyone's future profoundly.

Here are some actions you could take offered by and our friends at WavePoint and BCG and McKinsey.

Companies are asking people to work from home (we have always worked from our homes since 2003). We think the latter will become a long-term and rapidly growing trend as people reduce traveling time, buy more online, and increasingly recognize the benefits to their health of staying home. More emerging, potential behavioral trends here. Begin regularly evaluating predictable surprises, be prepared and act in time, while others lose their shirt through inattention to the future.

• [New] Industrial fabrication is set to take a hit this year, with losses expected across all the major sectors, with the rapid spread of COVID-19 disrupting supply chains globally and threatening to drag the global economy into downturn.
• [New] The sudden economic stop caused by COVID-19 containment measures will lead to a global recession this year.
• [New] Australia's economic outlook is also negatively affected by the coronavirus outbreak: The downturn in East Asia is expected to adversely affect the export services sector in Q1 of 2020 through a lower turnover in tourism.
• [New] Should Hungary, which currently claims only around 400 detected cases of the new coronavirus and 15 deaths, experience a coronavirus outbreak like that in northern Italy, the government might come under intense pressure from the population.
• [New] The COVID-19 pandemic will have significant effects on economies in several countries as trade, tourism, remittances, financial markets, and consumer and business sentiment are all disrupted.
• [New] After entering 2020 buoyed by aggressive growth forecasts, U.S. energy storage developers now face widespread project delays as a result of disruptions caused by the global coronavirus pandemic.
• [New] The global impact of COVID-19 will range from $77 billion to $347 billion in lost output, with some countries experiencing larger losses while others being impacted by disruptions to trade and tourism.
• [New] Hungary will need to redraw its budgets for 2020 and 2021 and offer major assistance to economic sectors worst hit by the spread of the coronavirus, which threatens brutal change.
• [New] Nobel prize winning biophysicist Michael Levitt correctly predicted in January that the coronavirus outbreak in China would not last for months, if proper social distancing measures were in place.
• [New] The COVID-19 pandemic and the forthcoming global recession will have major consequences for budget considerations around the world over the next few years, as recovery and growth are prioritized after many months of severely curtailed real economic activity.
• [New] The International Energy Agency has warned that, while carbon emissions will likely decline this year, in the medium term the coronavirus outbreak could slow down the low-carbon transition as green investments are put on hold by cash-strapped governments and businesses.
• [New] Analysts at U.K.-based investment banking firm Barclays PLC expect the lockdown in India due to the coronavirus outbreak to cost $120 billion.
• [New] Widespread uncertainty in financial markets, exacerbated by the coronavirus outbreak in China, trade frictions and macroecononic risk paint a more sober picture for the coming year.
• [New] The oil price crash and coronavirus have compounded an inauspicious start to oil production in Guyana, which was previously projected to experience economic growth of 86% this year.
• [New] The combination of the coronavirus epidemic, and the slump in global oil prices, means that investment will contract sharply this year, especially in the energy sector, and export growth will sag.
• [New] Supply chain disruptions and weaker global trade caused by the coronavirus outbreak represent headwinds for Denmark's exporters and importers early this year.
• [New] The rise in cybercrime due to the Covid-19 outbreak may actually benefit cybersecurity companies and could translate into higher stock prices longer term.
• [New] The Trump Administration reportedly unveiled an $850 billion stimulus package on Tuesday that includes sending direct cash payments to help Americans through the expected economic crash as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
• Slower economic growth and oversupply are expected to weigh heavily on the office market in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area this year, especially Shenzhen and Guangzhou, adding more pressure to the industry as it struggles to cope with the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
• The IEA has warned that, while carbon emissions will likely decline this year, in the medium term the coronavirus outbreak could slow down the low carbon transition, as green investments are put on hold by cash-strapped governments and businesses.

See full forecast

Last updated: 04 April 2020