Coronavirus

Future potential spread of the coronavirus is impacting world trade and threatens a global economic recession and inflection point. For the first time, Illness is now a major driving force. We first reported this virus way back in 2010 and regularly since July 2015 as a predictable surprise: a known unknown to most. It is not a Black Swan; it was foreseen! Forewarned is forearmed and forearmed is protection against unpleasant possibilities and this inflection point will most likely change everyone's future profoundly.

Here are some actions you could take offered by and our friends at WavePoint and BCG and McKinsey.

Companies are asking people to work from home (we have always worked from our homes since 2003). We think the latter will become a long-term and rapidly growing trend as people reduce traveling time, buy more online, and increasingly recognize the benefits to their health of staying home. More emerging, potential behavioral trends here. Begin regularly evaluating predictable surprises, be prepared and act in time, while others lose their shirt through inattention to the future.

• [New] In the IT services industry, the spread of COVID-19 and related containment measures have stifled global demand: Gartner predicts a reduction of up to €120 billion in 2020 global revenues, with leading players revising target guidance across service segments.
• [New] The swift responses from both fiscal and monetary authorities in Nigerian and the rest of the world, in addition to possible discovery of a potential coronavirus vaccine, could ease the negative impact and take the oil-rich African country out of recession by early 2021.
• [New] Given the negative impact of COVID-19 on the world economy, the Nigerian economy is expected to slide into recession in the second half of the year; in line with IMF's forecast - it predicted a negative growth rate of 5.4% in 2020.
• [New] 44.8% of UK consumers spent more online as a result of the coronavirus lockdown, and now forecasts online non-food expenditure to rise 14.3% in 2020 compared to the pre-pandemic forecast of 6.5%.
• [New] In the last two decades alone, zoonotic diseases have caused economic losses of more than $100 billion, not including the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is expected to cost $9 trillion over the next few years.
• [New] The COVID-19 pandemic has exacted a heavy toll on the Singapore economy, which is projected by the Ministry of Trade and Industry to contract by 4-7% in 2020.
• [New] GSK said on Tuesday the companies aimed to make their coronavirus vaccine available in the first half of next year and produce about 100 million doses by the end of 2021.
• [New] Israel could see a sharp increase in immigration over the next few years spurred on by the coronavirus crisis.
• [New] Due to a surge in online shopping activity during the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. and Canada, B2C E-Commerce sales in both countries are projected to see major growth in 2020.
• [New] The massive boost in unemployment insurance, which is projected to cost about $250 billion, comes as the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on the US economy.
• [New] Brazil's oil industry expects a recovery in domestic demand in the next months driven by growing China imports, but the negative effects of COVID-19 are expected to last through the end of 2021.
• [New] Despite all restrictions imposed by the Covid-19 outbreak on the global economy, Iran's petrochemical industry plans to operate 16 projects with a total investment of $12 billion in the current calendar year.
• [New] Canada and Australia have recently tightened restrictions on investment by state-backed firms, fearing economic dislocation caused by the coronavirus pandemic will make it easier to buy strategic assets.
• [New] Argentina's economy is expected to contract by 12% in 2020, a monthly, worse than the previous estimate of a 9.4% decline, as output is ravaged by measures to tame the coronavirus outbreak.
• [New] The world is facing a coronavirus debt timebomb as countries borrow trillions of pounds to fight the pandemic.
• [New] The EU economy will experience a deep recession in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both EU and national levels.
• [New] The Thai economy is expected to contract as much as 6% in 2020 mainly because of Covid-19 outbreak and trade war, with some recovery in the second half following easing of lockdown and travel restrictions.
• [New] Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are likely to lose billions of dollars in tourist spending in 2020 due to the Coronavirus pandemic, putting millions of jobs and several businesses at risk.
• [New] Mexico's economy will contract by 8.6% in 2020 if a second wave of coronavirus infections hits before the end of the year.
• [New] The disruption of global economic activity caused by the Coronavirus pandemic, coupled with the abrupt rise in uncertainty, is set to reverse the initially expected acceleration of Greece's economic growth in 2020.
• [New] Global property markets fell sharply in the first quarter of 2020 as the spread of COVID-19 cases outside China raised fears of a global economic crisis.
• [New] If oil prices fail to recover into 2021, or if Covid-19 infections once more squeeze global energy demand, the relatively high shale breakeven will restrict capex spend and reduce well completions.

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Last updated: 12 July 2020