Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] The outlook for the end of 2025 remains positive as long as the Federal Reserve is expected lower interest rates and the US economy avoids a recession. investing.com
• [New] The risk of an upcoming recession in the US ranges from high to moderate and will depend on how litigation over tariffs plays out. Central Banking
• [New] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has directly attributed cuts to its 2025 global growth forecast to the impact of tariffs and ongoing conflicts, projecting a potential slowdown in U.S. GDP to 1.3% in 2025 due to tariff shocks, raising recession risks. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] In the whirlwind of financial markets, the U.S. debt has ballooned to a staggering $36.6 trillion, sparking fears of a recession. vTrader
• One risk is the broader economic climate - if Australia were to enter a recession (for instance, due to a sharp China slowdown or domestic consumer crunch), that could weaken housing demand and even cause price dips in certain areas. TS2 Space
• A potential bearish sentiment might kick in, should the US enter a recession this year. NAGA
• Analysts are saying that if no deal is reached, the tariff barrier could push Europe into a recession. Fortune
• Global Recession: A prolonged downturn in the U.S. or Europe could suppress discretionary spending. Ainvest
• Berezin predicts a 60% chance of recession, with the S&P 500 dropping to 4,500. Business Insider
• Most countries could respond with retaliatory tariffs, resulting in a global tariff war, global recession and stagflationary conditions in the US. Invesco
• While the probability of a U.S. or global recession has dipped to 40%, the risks remain tangible. Ainvest
• Investment banks elevated the risk of a U.S. recession to a base-case scenario. investing.com
• If Fed staff are warning about recession risk, that deserves attention. Weekly Catalysts
• Global investors face 2025's fragile economic outlook with 40% recession risk, driven by inflation, tariffs, and policy shifts. Ainvest
• The US economy is weakening and will enter a recession if the Fed does not cut interest rates significantly. Infrastructure Capital's Substack
• Amid a possible global recession, a massive increase in military (rather than social) expenditure will partly serve as an economic stimulus, while the federal government will wield new powers to fast-track the construction of new oil pipelines and other natural resource projects. The Baffler
• The US economy has been resilient in light of trade policy uncertainty and while there is an expectation that both US and global growth will slow in the face of trade war uncertainty, it is too early to call for a recession. Portfolio Adviser
• The risks of both a US and global recession are growing unless the threatened tariffs are reduced and trade deals struck with key trading partners. Yahoo Finance
• With the chance of a recession by early 2026 now estimated at 36%, some analysts expect the Fed to begin easing rates by late 2025 - though timing and scale remain uncertain. Benzinga

Last updated: 17 September 2025