Recession [New] Crunching slowdowns in the U.S., Europe and China will mean a worldwide recession this year, a term the International Monetary Fund uses when annual global growth falls below 2.5%. [New] Deutsche Bank is the latest financial institution to forecast a global recession in 2020, and its second-quarter projections would be the biggest economic contractions in nearly 80 years. [New] Most places will be in economic expansion for six to nine months of the year, so no global recession will ensue, but the pace of growth will be lower than otherwise expected. [New] Inflation is likely to remain subdued, which also means that an overzealous Federal Reserve accidentally triggering a recession is a low risk. The next year will follow a jam-packed 2019, as markets surged from January lows despite trade war escalation, flashing recession warnings, the US House of Representative's impeachment inquiry, and slowing economic growth around the world. Global growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2020, well below the 2% threshold that indicates a global recession. The estimated losses by the travel industry alone are severe enough to push the United States into a protracted recession that is expected to last at least three quarters, with Q2 2020 being the low point. Asia-Pacific economic growth in 2020 will be more than halve to less than 3% as the global economy enters a recession. The bearish local stock market saw on Monday its worst bloodbath since the global financial crisis 12 years ago as the coronavirus epidemic started spreading locally while a collapse in global oil prices stoked global recession fears. The key risk for 2020 is that central bank policy fails to generate growth, governments shrink from fiscal stimulus and the global economy plunges into recession. At the macro level, the OECD now forecasts global recession in 2020, driven by a potential contraction in China's GDP growth in 1 Q 2020. A global recession is defined by the IMF as growth lower than 2.5%, not zero; growth was 3% last year and was forecast at 3.4% this year, but given Covid-19' s impact, global growth is likely to be back to 3.0% - or slightly lower. The International Energy Agency now forecasts a decline in oil demand this year for the first time since the 2008 Great Recession. The coronavirus outbreak could tip much of Europe into recession and cut global growth in half this year. The 2019 US deficit was $985 billion - the largest since the Great recession - and will climb above $1 trillion this year and for years after. Investors and commodity traders are growing more hopeful the global economy will avoid a recession in 2020, which would support faster growth in oil consumption over the next 12-18 months. An escalation in the coronavirus outbreak could cut global economic growth in half and plunge several countries into recession this year. On the demand side, some investors and commodity traders are forecasting that the global economy will avoid a recession in 2020. Adding to the gloomy mood, data showed Japan's factory activity suffered its steepest contraction in seven years in February, underlining the risk of a recession there as the impact of the outbreak spreads. The world's third largest economy shrank at the fastest pace in six years in the fourth quarter, and risks from the spreading coronavirus could push the economy into recession in the current quarter. Japan's factory activity suffered its steepest contraction in seven years in February, reinforcing the risk of a recession in the world's third-largest economy. While CFOs expect some form of U.S. downturn by the end of 2020, the good news is that expectations of a full-blown recession have fallen sharply since 1 Q19. See full forecast Last updated: 01 April 2020 Hi, Would you like a quick online demo of our service from an experienced member of our team? Yes No Hi, Would you like a quick online demo of our service from an experienced member of our team? Yes No
