Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] US recession probability - UBS warns that the probability of a U.S. recession has risen to 93%. Economic Times
• [New] UBS does not forecast a recession despite the high probability from hard data. Economic Times
• [New] Conversely, a Pessimistic Scenario could see stagnation or recession if core inflation remains persistent, U.S. trade policies become more restrictive, and domestic political uncertainty worsens, leading to capital flight and prolonged economic stagnation. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] The U.S. tariff hikes could raise inflation by 2-4% within 18 months, pushing core inflation near 6% by mid-2026 and cutting GDP growth by 1.5-2% annually - potentially causing a recession-like slowdown. Sahm
• [New] The US is now expected to avoid recession, despite the imposition of historic tariffs on many of its trading partners, and the global economy is forecast to slow only slightly in 2025 and 2026. The Guardian
• [New] Negative payroll data could signal the start of a recession. Economic Times
• A Crown corporation is forecasting that the Canadian economy will officially fall into a recession in 2026, part of a global downturn directly linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. nationalpost
• Without AI-related investment the US economy might already be in a recession. CNBC
• If a U.S. recession hits in 2026 paid AI adoption is likely to keep decreasing. AI Supremacy
• The US economy might have slipped into a mild recession. CRE Daily
• The US ended the fiscal year of 2025 with a lower deficit-to-GDP ratio than the year before and sounded an optimistic note for 2026, noting that the US is on its way to lowering deficits without causing a recession. Yahoo Finance
• Concerns about a potential U.S. recession are increasing, with 46.8% of respondents expecting one within the next six months. Hotel News Resource
• The OECD's estimate of potential 1.3% GDP contraction in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 represents the most severe downside scenario, highlighting material recession probability. Medium
• New Zealand faces double-dip recession risks after Q2 GDP contracted year-on-year, prompting expectations for accommodative monetary policy. Plus500
• With global recession odds at 60% (J.P. Morgan), many SMEs face a reckoning: Repay or risk audits. Immigration News Canada
• In contrast, Capital Economics said, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it will be some time before growth returns to trend. Australian Broadcasting Corporation
• No one is certain if Russia's economy will enter a recession in 2025. Forbes
• Japan has signed a trade deal with the US, helping policymakers become increasingly confident that the impact of tariffs will not push Japan into recession. investing.com
• A much lower-than-expected figure could lead to a perception that the risk of a recession in the US economy has re-emerged. Darkex Official Academy Area
• A soft landing scenario, where central bank actions successfully stabilize economies without triggering a deep recession, could see a gradual rebound in industrial and energy commodity demand by late 2026. The Chronicle-Journal
• Trade war risk is fading with just 12% of investors saying 'trade war triggering global recession' is the biggest tail risk (down from #1 spot at 29% in August). TKer by Sam Ro
• With recession fears fading, markets have scaled back expectations for an ECB rate cut in 2025. BIL Investment Insights
• The U.S. economy is showing high warning signs, with UBS saying recession risk is very strong in 2025. Economic Times

Last updated: 29 October 2025