Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] The prospect of increased US tariffs on European goods underscores a broader trend towards protectionism, which could lead to a fragmentation of global trade and further strain international economic relations, potentially pushing the Eurozone into recession. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] The prospect of increased US tariffs on European goods, particularly under a potential change in US leadership, poses a significant threat, potentially pushing the Eurozone economy into recession and squeezing export profits. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] While the U.S. economy is slowing, it is expected to withstand tariff impacts without entering a recession. Hotel News Resource
• [New] The economic crisis in Germany by 2024-2025 has led to a recession with a projected decline in GDP of up to 2.5%. THE GLOBAL TRIBUNE
• [New] A sharp slowdown in services could fuel recession fears and push the Fed toward aggressive easing. NAGA
• [New] If Silicon Valley's promises of AI efficacy fail to meet expectations, it threatens to plunge the world into an economic recession. BioProcess International
• [New] Germany's economy shrank in the third quarter, and data on Tuesday showing an unexpectedly big drop in industrial output in November raised recession fears in Europe's largest economy. The Financial Express
• [New] The UK economy has entered a technical recession, but we think the recent GDP numbers will mark a low point and expect an upturn from here.UK unemployment is low and employment is growing. UK - EN - Intermediary
• [New] In the next six weeks the probability of a U.S. recession getting started in the next twelve months will be around 21%. Seeking Alpha
• [New] Global trade tensions, inflation, and recession fears have weighed heavily on all risk assets, and Bitcoin has not been spared. BeInCrypto
• [New] Expressing frustration with new export controls placed on rare earth elements by China, Trump threatened to place an additional 100% tax on Chinese imports, potentially escalating tariff rates close to levels that in April fanned fears of a global recession. Euronews
• [New] Canada's economy is expected to dodge a potential recession in 2025, after grinding to a halt in the first half of 2025. Yahoo Finance Canada
• [New] The bigger picture is only getting clearer and clearer; some of the world's top economists are predicting a full-blown US recession in 2026, and the tech industry continues to grapple with changes such as shifting budgets, cutthroat profit chasing, and the unstoppable force that is the rise of AI. Salesforce Ben
• [New] 71% of respondents said they expect a recession in the second half of 2025, up 26 percentage points since January. CURE
• US recession probability - UBS warns that the probability of a U.S. recession has risen to 93%. Economic Times
• UBS does not forecast a recession despite the high probability from hard data. Economic Times
• Conversely, a Pessimistic Scenario could see stagnation or recession if core inflation remains persistent, U.S. trade policies become more restrictive, and domestic political uncertainty worsens, leading to capital flight and prolonged economic stagnation. The Chronicle-Journal
• The U.S. tariff hikes could raise inflation by 2-4% within 18 months, pushing core inflation near 6% by mid-2026 and cutting GDP growth by 1.5-2% annually - potentially causing a recession-like slowdown. Sahm
• The US is now expected to avoid recession, despite the imposition of historic tariffs on many of its trading partners, and the global economy is forecast to slow only slightly in 2025 and 2026. The Guardian
• Negative payroll data could signal the start of a recession. Economic Times
• A Crown corporation is forecasting that the Canadian economy will officially fall into a recession in 2026, part of a global downturn directly linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. nationalpost
• Without AI-related investment the US economy might already be in a recession. CNBC

Last updated: 12 November 2025