Climactic Future?

Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century and tackling it could be our greatest health opportunity. While we already know the elephant is in the room, its potential to create future damage is huge and our current efforts to bring it under control are insufficient. Read on to discover what our robot, Athena, thinks the future of our climate could be, act accordingly.

What's Changing

Summary
Analysis
Systems map: While the systems map shows the global influence and many expected impacts of climate change its noticeable that it does not show any major commercial organizations fully engaged in dealing with its future impacts. The impacts on all our health will likely be experienced by wilder weather, pollution, biodiversity reduction, water and food shortages, all affecting our health.

Radar chart Our longer than usual time outlook of 2040 shows a sectoral map that’s off the scale for the first time in any of our Trend Alerts. We can expect financial services organizations, retailers, manufactures and construction and IT companies specially to come under pressure by then to show their climate positive credentials. This may seem a long way-off, but the journey will be not be easy and efforts must start now to be ready in time with big prizes for the leaders and opprobrium for the laggards from the general public.

Graph-It: Again by 2040 efforts to improve infrastructure against the worst of climate change effects will mean massive investment and huge damage to global and local economies if climate change is not somewhat mitigated in time.

Emerging Drivers: Despite the likely threat reported by scientists our robot, Athena, places climate change as relatively low intensity versus more short-term opportunities in artificial intelligence and digitalization. It is for this reason we class climate change as the elephant in the room. It is likely to become an ever more urgent and impactful threat as the years roll-on but without much more action now by the public and all organizations we may face an uncontrollable disaster in the decades ahead. Today, governments and not for profits are much more engaged in solving climate change issues. Tomorrow, it will require much more vision and action from smart city leaders, corporate executives and indeed, the general public to reduce the worst effects of coming climate change.

Sentiment: There are many efforts going on in reducing emissions through renewable energies, carbon capture etc and investments by governments in reducing the effects of climate change. Yet, commercial markets have been slow to respond. Organizations too are taking various tactical initiatives to contribute to the effort though none has yet emerged with a stated leadership position and brand reputation centered on this issue.

But, the world will need to infuse at least USD53 trillion in the energy sector alone by 2035 to prevent dangerous climate change while at the same time suffering significant economic losses from bigger storms, forest fires, and sea level rises. Somethings will have to give, and painful disruptions are almost inevitable; far worse than the 1929 or 2009 recessions.

Pundits and experts comments are showing more concern at the lack of progress and the hypocrisy shown at COP24 in Poland this month. No wonder protesters are taking the issue to the streets and demonstrating just as they did at G7 meetings about Banks’ support for unsustainable projects in the early part of this century.

Pie Charts: Climate change is still only seen as of medium consequence by Athena’s analysis of the 10,000 plus forecasts she aggregated but the effects will likely last at least 200 years and cost economies trillions of dollars in the decades above. Sadly, its likely to be another 15 years before the public really starts to put pressure on organizations to act, as they become the victims of heat waves, disputes over drinking water rights, major migratory flows from one country to another and other disasters.

Year-on-Year: The sectors with the most to benefit from reducing their own climate impacts are financial services, construction, transport, energy and retail. We note that most governments should be making a lot more efforts, but they lag far behind many other sectors in making this a priority. And, overall the level of intensity is only high, whereas for such a life-threatening issue with major opportunities it should be at very high. As climate change continues to bring disasters around the world, we expect the intensity to increase inexorably.

Heat map: The Heat Map shows the environmental sector and food and agriculture will need to seriously up their game in protecting biodiversity and growing food on non-traditional land and in buildings as climate change makes new deserts of some regions and greens others. The energy sector will need to continue its efforts to reduce coal use and move to renewables as quickly as possible and faster than now especially in Asia. Prime movers in this regard are Europe, the U.S, and Australia. policies.

Geography: Athena reports that, geographically, countries will need to stop subsidising the destruction of the world especially the three big oil and gas producing countries or grassroots uprisings all over the world will begin to manifest themselves against those who look only at short-term gain.

Leaders: The leader board shows the greatest efforts to reduce the impacts of climate change are being made in the U.S, Canada, UK, India, China and Australia and the greatest foci is on reducing emissions, energy use water use. The European Union is leading the world in attempting to reduce climate change, but it too is probably not doing enough to bring the key global actors together.  We can expect China to potentially become the leader from its low base of the past few years. Interestingly, no global personalities stand out as leading the world to solve climate change. One or more will no doubt appear as the problem gets worse.

Most of those on the list below seem out of touch, out of power or soon will be!

SWOT: It is an understandable focus right now from governments and NGO’s to focus on reducing the threat of climate change from subsidy removal, increased taxes and regulations restricting use of climate worsening resources. However, we do not see enough focus on seizing the many commercial opportunities to reduce climate change for the benefit of shareholders and all other global stakeholders alike from any one organization.

The sustainability debate began to be won when business leaders began challenging their organizations to find new solutions that simultaneously embraced people, profit and planet and which led to early circular economy efforts. It’s our opinion that once again we need leaders at all levels to take up the challenge.

We would be very willing to help them/you!

Visuals
For more detailed explanation of the graphics below please click here.

System map
While the systems map shows the global influence and many expected impacts of climate change its noticeable that it does not show any major commercial organizations fully engaged in dealing with its future impacts. The impacts on all our health will likely be experienced by wilder weather, pollution, biodiversity reduction, water and food shortages, all affecting our health.

Radar
Our longer than usual time outlook of 2040 shows a sectoral map that’s off the scale for the first time in any of our Trend Alerts. We can expect financial services organizations, retailers, manufactures and construction and IT companies specially to come under pressure by then to show their climate positive credentials. This may seem a long way-off, but the journey will be not be easy and efforts must start now to be ready in time with big prizes for the leaders and opprobrium for the laggards from the general public.

Graph-It
Again by 2040 efforts to improve infrastructure against the worst of climate change effects will mean massive investment and huge damage to global and local economies if climate change is not somewhat mitigated in time.

Emerging Drivers
Despite the likely threat reported by scientists our robot, Athena, places climate change as relatively low intensity versus more short-term opportunities in artificial intelligence and digitalization. It is for this reason we class climate change as the elephant in the room. It is likely to become an ever more urgent and impactful threat as the years roll-on but without much more action now by the public and all organizations we may face an uncontrollable disaster in the decades ahead. Today, governments and not for profits are much more engaged in solving climate change issues. Tomorrow, it will require much more vision and action from smart city leaders, corporate executives and indeed, the general public to reduce the worst effects of coming climate change.

Sentiment
There are many efforts going on in reducing emissions through renewable energies, carbon capture etc and investments by governments in reducing the effects of climate change. Yet, commercial markets have been slow to respond. Organizations too are taking various tactical initiatives to contribute to the effort though none has yet emerged with a stated leadership position on this issue.

But, the world will need to infuse at least USD53 trillion in the energy sector alone by 2035 to prevent dangerous climate change while at the same time suffering significant economic losses from bigger storms, forest fires, and sea level rises. Somethings will have to give, and painful disruptions are almost inevitable; far worse than the 1929 or 2009 recessions.

Pundits and experts comments are showing more concern at the lack of progress and the hypocrisy shown at COP24 in Poland this month. No wonder protesters are taking the issue to the streets and demonstrating just as they did at G7 meetings about Banks’ support for unsustainable projects in the early part of this century.

Pie Charts
Climate change is still only seen as of medium consequence by Athena’s analysis of the 10,000 plus forecasts she aggregated but the effects will likely last at least 200 years and cost economies trillions of dollars in the decades above. Sadly, its likely to be another 15 years before the public really starts to put pressure on organizations to act as they become the victims of heat waves, disputes over drinking water rights, major migratory flows from one country to another and other disasters.

Year-on-Year
The sectors with the most to benefit from reducing their own climate impacts are financial services, construction, transport, energy and retail. We note that most governments should be making a lot more efforts, but they lag far behind many other sectors in making this a priority. And, overall the level of intensity is only high, whereas for such a life-threatening issue with major opportunities it should be at very high. As climate change continues to bring disasters around the world, we expect the intensity to increase inexorably.

Heat map
The Heat Map shows the environmental sector and food and agriculture will need to seriously up their game in protecting biodiversity and growing food on non-traditional land and in buildings as climate change makes new deserts of some regions and greens others. The energy sector will need to continue its efforts to reduce coal use and move to renewables as quickly as possible and faster than now especially in Asia. Prime movers in this regard are Europe, the U.S, and Australia. policies.

Geography
Athena reports that, geographically, countries will need to stop subsidising the destruction of the world especially the three big oil and gas producing countries or grassroots uprisings all over the world will begin to manifest themselves against those who look only at short-term gain.

Leaders
The leader board shows the greatest efforts to reduce the impacts of climate change are being made in the U.S, Canada, UK, India, China and Australia and the greatest foci is on reducing emissions, energy use water use. The European Union is leading the world in attempting to reduce climate change, but it too is probably not doing enough to bring the key global actors together.  We can expect China to potentially become the leader from its low base of the past few years. Interestingly, no global personalities stand out as leading the world to solve climate change. One or more will no doubt appear as the problem gets worse.

Most of those on the list below seem out of touch, out of power or soon will be!

SWOT
Lastly, the SWOT chart shows the aggregate level of opportunities and strengths in climate change to be finely balanced between opportunities and threats versus opportunities and strengths.

​

It is an understandable focus right now from governments and NGO’s to focus on reducing the threat of climate change from subsidy removal, increased taxes and regulations restricting use of climate worsening resources. However, we do not see enough focus on seizing the many commercial opportunities to reduce climate change for the benefit of shareholders and all other global stakeholders alike from any one organization.

The sustainability debate began to be won when business leaders began challenging their organizations to find new solutions that simultaneously embraced people, profit and planet and which led to early circular economy efforts. It’s our opinion that once again we need leaders at all levels to take up the challenge.

We would be very willing to help them!

Evidence
Extracted forecasts found by Athena and linked back to the original articles, reports and PowerPoints (Insights) that she found can be found below using this search term:

• science

Implications

rise

• If scientists' worst predictions are realised, an entire metropolitan area, currently inhabited by more than six million people, is likely to be swamped by a 1.5-metre sea-level rise before the end of this century, a rise that could see the tourist mecca of Miami simply disappear.
• A 2018 study commissioned by the Pentagon found that even before anticipated sea level rise swallows Kwajalein, ocean waves could wash over the low-lying islands often enough by 2030 to harm underground drinking water sources and the multibillion-dollar military infrastructure.
• Even if the projections of future sea level rise are realized, detection research indicates that it will take decades before any anthropogenic signal is potentially detectable.
• The challenges of understanding the causes of sea level rise and projecting future climate change and sea level rise are well - recognized by the international community of climate and sea level researchers.
• The projected 21st century sea level rise depends on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions.
• The recovery process, known as isostatic rebound, could see land rising by nearly four inches in some northerly areas by the end of the century, providing a huge mitigating force against sea level rises.
• Coastal property damage in the U.S. from sea level rise and storm surge flooding could reach nearly $120 billion per year.
• By the turn of the century, people in New York could be faced with four separate climate hazards, including drought, sea-level rise, extreme rainfall and higher temperatures.
  

report

• A report by the Trump administration finds climate change could reduce the size of the US economy by 10% - more than twice as bad as the worst part of the Great Recession - by 2100.
• Carbon dioxide emissions from advanced economies will rise in 2018 for the first time in five years, the International Energy Agency reports, marking a setback for the global campaign to fend off the worst effects of climate change.
• By 2100, unless something drastic changes, a new report predicts regions will start dealing with multiple disasters all at once.
• The New Climate Economy report (2018) states that low-carbon growth could deliver economic benefits of US$26 trillion to 2030.
  

change

• A recent analysis of data related to the brown bear estimates that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11 percent across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2050 due to climate change, predominantly due to the changes in temperature and precipitation.
• Without substantial and sustained global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and regional initiatives to prepare for anticipated changes, climate change is expected to cause growing losses to American infrastructure and property and impede the rate of economic growth over this century.
• Without greater transparency, the global community's efforts to prevent catastrophic climate change will be on shaky ground.
• Monitoring extreme snowfall trends in response to climate change is essential for sustainability and adaptation studies because climate change could significantly influence variability in precipitation during the 21st century.
• With extreme climate conditions becoming a reality around the world, from droughts, flooding and tsunamis, to wildfires and hurricanes, a main green building trend that will carry over into 2019 will be the resilience of buildings against climate change.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that future CO2 in the oceans will more than double by the year 2100 - rising from current levels of 400 µatm to 1,000 µatm - if no mitigating action is taken against climate change.
• Implementing green strategies like bike lanes and better building codes could bring 94 world cities a collective $583 billion worth of benefits, while fighting climate change.
  

scenario

• A rapid shift from a fossil-fuel world economy to low-carbon; a continuation of past trends, with temperatures rising to 2.5 °C by 2100; and a third scenario would prioritize growth to the detriment of climate change risks.
• Several scenarios for achieving the Paris climate objectives assume that, by 2100, carbon capture and sequestration could account for 18 Gt per annum of emission reductions, with its application to biomass-based processes producing significant negative emissions.
• The climate change scenario only starts to become an important player in the projected sea level change from the mid-21st century.
• One statistic that media outlets have seized upon is that the worst climate scenario could cost the U.S. 10 percent of its gross domestic product by 2100.
• The worst climate scenario could cost the US 10 percent of its gross domestic product by 2100.
• In a worst-case climate change scenario, labor-related losses in the year 2090 due to extreme heat - the sort that makes it difficult to work outdoors or seriously lowers productivity - could amount to an estimated $155 billion annually.
• Under the higher-end climate scenario, RPC 8.5, it's likely that anywhere between $66 billion and $106 billion worth of real estate will be below sea level by 2050.
• UK coastal flood risk is expected to increase over the 21st century and beyond under all RCP climate change scenarios.
• Exploratory, time-mean sea level projections to 2300 suggest that UK sea levels will continue to rise over the coming centuries under all RCP climate change scenarios.
  

action

• Research by the World Bank has established that with - out action, climate change could result in a further 100 million people living in poverty by 2030.
• Damage from climate change will slash the U.S. economy by as much as 10 per cent by 2100 unless action is taken.
• The New Climate Economy report of 2015 estimated that actions in eight focus areas could achieve significant economic benefits and reduce global GHG emissions by between 43-53 GtCO2e in 2030.
• The National Climate Assessment warns that, absent strong action, the U.S.
• Despite the Trump administration's widespread climate science denial, its own National Climate Assessment concluded that, without aggressive action, climate change will increasingly threaten Americans' economic well-being.
• While some Democrats have downplayed the need for aggressive climate action when they take over the House of Representatives in 2019, others have indicated they will make tackling climate change a top priority.
• Bold climate action could yield $26 trillion in global economic benefits between now and 2030, compared with business as usual.
• Climate action and the economy Transitioning to a low-carbon economy later on will be costly with a 2% GDP loss if climate action is delayed until 2025.
  

emission

• Despite the predicted rise in global power demand, which is set to increase by 160% to 52,000 TWh before 2050 as the population grows, technology can help decouple growth from emissions.
• WHO estimates that for every dollar spent on reducing emissions to meet the Paris targets, two dollars will be gained in terms of health benefits.
• Emissions are expected to rise further this year, pointing to an emissions gap between what countries promised in Paris and what their policies are delivering.
• The UK government says it leads the world in climate policy has just agreed a £30bn road-building programme and a new runway for Heathrow, which will increase emissions.
• A leading climate scientist suggests Australia will now have to reduce electricity sector emissions by 60 to 70 per cent in order to meet its Paris Agreement target of reducing carbon emissions by 26 to 28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.
  

opportunity

• Next year, when the Committee on Climate Change publishes its advice to the Government on the UK adopting and meeting a new, legal net zero emissions target, there will be an opportunity for the UK to once again be a global leader in deep decarbonisation.
• Green building codes, which include reducing energy consumption, will account for $24.7tr of climate investment opportunities in cities by 2030.
  

policy

• Emissions are expected to rise further this year, pointing to an emissions gap between what countries promised in Paris and what their policies are delivering.
• There has been no improvement in Australia's climate policy since 2017 and emission levels for 2030 are projected to be well above the NDC target.
• The UK government says it leads the world in climate policy has just agreed a £30bn road-building programme and a new runway for Heathrow, which will increase emissions.
• Environment Secretary Michael Gove has today sketched out plans for a raft of new climate policies, in response to fresh warnings the UK faces devastating impacts' if projected global temperature increases are not curbed over the coming decades.
  

scientist

• Scientists expect 2018, which saw climate-related disasters around the globe, to be the fourth hottest on record.
• As scientists concluded in the recent United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, avoiding the worst effects of climate change will require an all-hands-on-deck transformation of the global economy.
• Global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to hit a record high in 2018, despite urgent calls from climate scientists and international groups such as the United Nations to cut back.
• The map of the world, climate scientists tell us, will be radically redrawn by the end of the century.
• A leading climate scientist suggests Australia will now have to reduce electricity sector emissions by 60 to 70 per cent in order to meet its Paris Agreement target of reducing carbon emissions by 26 to 28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.
  

level

• A leading climate scientist suggests Australia will now have to reduce electricity sector emissions by 60 to 70 per cent in order to meet its Paris Agreement target of reducing carbon emissions by 26 to 28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.
• Recent Climate Action Tracker projections for 2030 are 1-4 percent lower than levels projected a year ago.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that future CO2 in the oceans will more than double by the year 2100 - rising from current levels of 400 µatm to 1,000 µatm - if no mitigating action is taken against climate change.
• There has been no improvement in Australia's climate policy since 2017 and emission levels for 2030 are projected to be well above the NDC target.
• Trends in climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities show an unacceptably high level of risk for the current and future health of populations across the world.
• Local sea level in many regions will continue to rise in the 21st century - independent of global climate change.
• Emissions scenario choice exerts a great deal of influence on predicted sea level rise after 2050.
• Engineers will play a central role in addressing the effects of climate change and rising sea levels and in ensuring that our growing population will have access to food, water, clean energy and affordable healthcare.
  

Question

• Is Climate Change in Danger of Becoming Irrelevant?
•  Which industries benefit, and which face greater challenges as a result of economy-wide efforts to tackle climate change?
• What impact can we expect climate change to have on biosecurity?

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Sources
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 10.787 forecasts in seconds on 13th December 2018 to allow us to publish this report in less than ninety minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish, or we can prepare a full customized and professionally written brief for you to order covering all these forecasts.

​

Athena
Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents. 

Athena is apolitical. She will report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not her purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, we recommend you check her veracity before responding to her extracted forecasts.

Just like humans, Athena can be fallible. Do recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, she does not. She might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and she'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in her stride. But, please let us know if you feel her bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate her findings for yourself.

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