2030

A Future Prognosis

Matt Richardson

22 November 2024
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
AI could displace up to 300 million jobs worldwide by 2030, affecting approximately 18% of the global workforce. Tate's Employment for Immigration to NZ (and AUS)
Shell has won its appeal against a ruling in 2021 by a Dutch court that would have forced it to cut its global carbon dioxide emissions by 45% by 2030, in line with the 2015 Paris climate change agreement. Chemistry World
The world of IT procurement is gearing up for a major transformation by 2030. NPI
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The key question is how countries intend to protect at least 30% of the world's land and water and restore 30% of the degraded ecosystems by 2030. Geoharvey
  • At the global level, the parties to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) have adopted a goal to protect sites covering at least 30% of marine areas by 2030 in order to conserve marine biodiversity and ecosystems, including to reduce negative impacts of pollution. SpringerLink
  • In Colombia, medical Cannabis industry has been thriving, and it is expected that by 2030, 1558 hectares will be dedicated to the cultivation of Cannabis. SpringerLink
Weaknesses
  • Inadequate Action: Fossil fuels remain unregulated despite the Paris Agreement, with current policies risking a 3 °C temperature rise by 2030. PMF IAS
  • The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation sets an even more ambitious goal: building 5.8 million homes by 2030 to effectively address the housing shortage. / Canada Expat.com
  • President Joe Biden in 2022 signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act, opens new tab guaranteeing billions of dollars of solar and wind subsidies for another decade as part of his broader effort to decarbonize the power sector by 2035 to fight climate change. This is Not Cool
Opportunities
  • Recycling Initiatives: The integration of recycled bitumen into road repairs is reducing raw material costs and minimizing environmental impact, a trend expected to gain further momentum by 2030. Mobility Foresights
  • By 2030, urbanization is expected to push demand for high-performance bitumen in key states, particularly California, Texas, and Florida. Mobility Foresights
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi, following the successful Chandrayaan-3 mission in 2023, called for bold objectives, including a crewed moon flyby by 2035 and a human landing by 2040. / India Gadgets 360
Threats
  • The economic cost of AMR is forecasted to reach US$ 3.4 trillion annually by 2030, alongside losses in productivity and livestock production. World Health Organization: WHO
  • By 2030, 70% of antibiotics used globally in human health should be from the WHO Access group to reduce AMR risks. World Health Organization: WHO
  • A 2022 United Nations report estimates a 40% increase in disasters from 20215 to 2030 and a 30% increase in droughts from 2000 to 2030. The National Interest
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
airplane, autonomous, Mars, computer, market, augmented reality
Emerging
EV, artificial intelligence, battery, car, hydrogen, 5G
Maturing
emission, carbon, country, demand, market, electricity
Declining
emission, coal, carbon, CO2, country, demand
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
AI could displace up to 300 million jobs worldwide by 2030, affecting approximately 18% of the global workforce. Tate's Employment for Immigration to NZ (and AUS)
Artificial Intelligence has the potential to displace up to 300 million jobs worldwide by 2030, raising concerns about employment and the need for workforce adaptation. All About AI
PEST
Political
  • Poland's President, Andrzej Duda, has signed into law an extension on the use of genetically modified feed, delaying a planned ban until 2030. FeedNavigator.com
  • Emissions would need to be cut roughly in half by 2035 to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the key benchmark countries agreed to pursue in climate negotiations. NPR
  • Governments are stepping up their efforts to protect the environment: the UN Convention on Biological Diversity set global targets in 2022, including the conservation by 2030 of at least 30% of the world's lands, inland waters, coastal areas and oceans. European Central Bank
Economic
  • The UAE's NDCs represent a higher level of ambition than the previous versions, with an implied more rapid pace of emissions reductions to 2035. AGBI
  • The updated NDC increases the UAE's previous target of a 23.5% reduction by 2030 and adopts 2019 as the baseline year for measuring emissions reductions. AGBI
  • The UAE has pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions nearly in half by 2035 under its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), marking its most ambitious climate target to date under the Paris Agreement. AGBI
Social
  • By 2035, driverless missions will spread across the majority of the US, Europe, and China in various operational forms. Idtechex
  • By 2035 the number of people aged 15-34 is forecasted to decline to approximately 16 million people, while there are anticipated to be over 23 million aged over 65. / Germany Statista
  • The Nordic Baltic Hydrogen Corridor project aims to develop a hydrogen infrastructure from Finland to Germany through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland by 2030. World Pipelines
Technological
  • By 2030, the GDP of local economies around the world is projected to increase by up to 26% as a result of artificial intelligence. Vena Solutions
  • The largest economic gains due to AI are projected to benefit China, with $7 trillion, and North America, with $3.7 trillion, in GDP increases by 2030. Vena Solutions
  • Local economies are projected to experience up to a 26% increase in their GDP by 2030, thanks to AI. Vena Solutions
Financial Impact
The world could reach debt levels of maybe $3 quadrillion by 2030. Algora Blog
As more members of the cohort age into their spending power - which will reach $3 trillion by 2030, according to NIQ - the number of retailers vying for their beauty spend, too, is climbing. WWD
Annual clean energy investment needs to triple by 2030 to $4 trillion to reach Net Zero by 2050. Energy Connects
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Resource Mobilization: A new Strategy for Resource Mobilization was developed to secure USD 200 billion annually by 2030 for biodiversity initiatives globally. EDUREV.IN
Globalists have been pushing for DPI to be rolled out globally for large-scale adoption by 2030, ostensibly to fight climate change. Technocracy News
AI could displace approximately 400 million workers or around 15% of the global workforce between 2016 and 2030. Kuensel Online
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Up to 800 million people worldwide could be displaced by automation and need to find new jobs by 2030. Fortune
Africa contributes less than 10% of global emissions, but climate change threatens up to 118 million of the poorest Africans, exposing them to droughts, floods, and extreme heat by 2030. GAC
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Achieving a sustainable forest-based bioeconomy can support enhanced efforts towards halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030 as recognized in the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement, while contributing to achievement of the SDGs and the Global Forest Goals. ClimateChange
The SBTN state setting validated science-based targets for nature is a crucial step for companies to achieve the Global Biodiversity Framework and reverse and halt nature loss by 2030. Acclaro Advisory
The global hepatitis strategy, endorsed by all WHO member states, aims to achieve a 90% reduction in new chronic hepatitis infections and a 65% decrease in related deaths by 2030. PubMed Central (PMC)
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
The ultimate goal of the global campaign is to raise public awareness and to urge international fashion brands and policymakers to ban live lamb cutting in Australia by 2030. FOUR PAWS International - Animal Welfare Organisation
Almost 4% of the world's total working hours could be lost to climate-induced extreme temperatures by 2030. Hong Kong Free Press HKFP
To end extreme poverty and absolute monetary poverty worldwide by 2030, it would cost about $70 and $325 billion per year. Global Policy Journal
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The UN Water Conference comes at the midway point of the UN Water Action Decade, a global effort to head off a looming water crisis that could see a 40% shortfall in global freshwater supplies by 2030. MercoPress
In late 2021 nearly 140 world leaders gathering at the United Nations climate talks in Glasgow pledged to end forest loss and land degradation by 2030. International Consortium of Investigative Journalists
Questions
Can?
How can oil and gas companies thrive in a post-2030 world? McKinsey & Company
Can the Great Green Wall be built by 2030? Geographical
Can the Carbon Management Challenge fast-track action towards reaching 1 GT of CCUS deployment by 2030? Clean Air Task Force
How?
How is Labour living up to its promise of clean energy by 2030? Electrical Review
How is the Global Insurance Software Market expected to evolve by 2030? Research and Markets
What is the market size, and how is it expected to grow by 2030? Mobility Foresights
Who?
Man who used AI to create child abuse images jailed for 18 years | Crime | The Guardian >> Generative AI could cause 10 billion iPhones worth of e-waste per year by 2030 | TechCrunch >> What are AI 'world models,' and why do they matter? Futureseek Link Digest
Which supplier has an edge in new product development and who will be the Automotive Radar Sensors leader in 2030? Mobility Foresights
Who will lead and who will follow in the autonomous vehicle race by 2030? Research and Markets
What?
What will retail industry look like in 2030? Data Clarity
What Will the Retail Industry Look Like in 2030? Data Clarity
What Will an AI-Driven Business Landscape Look Like in 2030? Foley & Lardner LLP
When?
Will industries like agriculture, manufacturing and public safety fully embrace autonomy by 2030, and what will cities of the future look like when they do? Hexagon AB
What happens when the Big Ten's broadcast contract expires in 2030? The Mercury News
What's the purpose of four or five-lane thoroughfares in an epoch when new gas-and-diesel burners will, if the EU parliament has its way, be banned by 2035 anyway? CNN
Will?
Will India be able to eliminate TB by 2030 - five years ahead of the global target? News18
Most Recent Which countries will contribute the most to global student mobility in 2030? ICEF Monitor - Market intelligence for international st
Which countries will contribute the most to global student mobility in 2030? ICEF Monitor - Market intelligence for international st
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