Artificial Intelligence

A Future Prognosis

Kerry Richardson

30 May 2023
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Up to 375 million workers (14% of the global workforce) may need to switch occupations or acquire new skills by 2030 due to automation and AI technologies. Transport Times
AI will replace 85 million jobs globally by 2025. Computerworld
One billion people in the global workforce will have to be retrained and upskilled by the end of the decade, due to the emergence of Artificial Intelligence. The Irish Times
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • AI-driven approaches like Pred - Pol, software originally developed by the Los Angeles Police Department and UCLA that purports to help protect one in 33 US citizens, predict when, where and how crime will occur. Business Plus
  • Mitiga Solutions, a climate tech startup that uses AI and high-performance computing to improve prevention, resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards, has raised a €13.25 million Series A funding round. EU-Startups
  • Given the rapid proliferation of general-purpose AI systems that have a cross-cutting impact across sectors, the robustness of the UK's light-touch, context-focused approach will be immediately challenged. Internet Policy Review
  • In Europe, the UK government recently announced its decision not to establish a new regulator for AI governance, aiming to avoid overly restrictive regulations that could hinder innovation. China Briefing News
  • AI in manufacturing has many opportunities, but developments are advancing at breakneck speed, which puts many industries in the developing world at a disadvantage. International Telecommunication Union
  • Initial excitement around the potential of ChatGPT and similar AI products in China has given way to concerns over how AI could be used to supercharge criminal activity. TechNode
  • Microsoft Azure data centers could possibly be required to submit formal transparency reports to the new AI regulator and have federal inspectors visit more regularly, regardless of what trade secrets that might compromise. Medium
  • The Microsoft-OpenAI approach could become the new baseline in policy debates about the governance of AI and lead to heated policy battles about computational freedom more generally. Medium
  • Microsoft and OpenAI's shared plugin platform will be natively integrated into Microsoft Edge, marking a first in integrating AI-powered search into a web browser. Search Engine Journal
  • Technological singularity, the point at which AI surpasses human intelligence, is a real and imminent threat. Quartz
  • IBM is recommending a precision regulation approach based on levels of risk, similar to the EU's AI Act. AI Business
  • This week the British Medical Association threatened legal action against plans to give patients automatic access to their medical records and some of the specialist bodies are resisting attempts to use AI to speed up test results, thereby reducing waiting lists. The Times

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

artificial intelligence, UAV, application, airplane, 3D, algorithm
artificial intelligence, application, 5G, algorithm, IT, GDP
artificial intelligence, data, GPS, agency, built, commercial
artificial intelligence, emission, IT, CO2, GIS, actor
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Up to 375 million workers (14% of the global workforce) may need to switch occupations or acquire new skills by 2030 due to automation and AI technologies. Transport Times
By 2025, AI will automate 75 million jobs worldwide, generating 133 million new jobs. WAM
  • As the nature of operations evolves to include cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, and hypersonic weapons, and with China and Russia posing a global challenge to U.S. dominance, a shortage of capable recruits poses a significant national security threat. Independent Women's Forum
  • French lawmakers have drawn up legislation allowing AI-powered video surveillance to monitor the 2024 Paris Olympics. AI Business
  • Generative AI could produce recipes for chemical weapons and addictive drugs. The Mercury News
  • Around 2026, AI-led disruption across sectors could add $500 billion to India's economy. forbesindia
  • ARK Invest on the Investment Potential of Blockchain, AI, and Web3. BeInCrypto
  • Swedish philosopher Nicholas Bostrom, in Superintelligence, suggests that even advanced AIs who obey their initial, human defined goals will likely generate instrumental subgoals such as self-preservation, cognitive enhancement, and resource acquisition. TO THE BRINK
  • By 2024, 68% of security decision-makers plan to implement CRQ that uses AI and ML. Cyber Defense Magine
  • In acute ischaemic stroke (AIS), the most common stroke subtype, lack of perfusion quickly leads to death of brain cells and disruption of the BBB. OUP Academic
  • Mariners must be aware of the inherent limitations of and the risk of over-reliance on AIS in bridge watchkeeping and collision avoidance. Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
  • Artificial Intelligence is reshaping the world of search technology, bringing about changes that will transform the traditional concepts of SEO and hashtags. Impact Lab
  • The emergence of generative AI and language models are no different, so it's no surprise that American workers are fearful of how this technology will change how they work and even how much they are paid. Yahoo Finance
  • Since OpenAI introduced ChatGPT, privacy advocates have warned consumers about the potential threat to privacy posed by generative AI apps. TechNewsWorld
Financial Impact
Laggards risk missing out on the $1.7 trillion in business value, roughly 12% of all sales, that McKinsey estimates AI and analytics could generate for the retail industry. VentureBeat
Per a McKinsey 2020 report, the potential for value creation is one of the largest across industries, as AI can potentially unlock $1 trillion of incremental value for banks, annually. BeInCrypto
AI will create an economic value of 15.7 trillion U.S. dollars by 2030, which is significant to people's livelihoods, including the eradication of poverty and hunger. Cyprus Mail
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
AI could result in the loss of 300 million jobs worldwide within a few years. The Keswick Reminder
In 2019, Oxford Economics wrote a report forecasting that, by 2030, AI could replace up to 20 million manufacturing jobs worldwide. OnlinePMCourses
Artificial intelligence could displace roughly 15% of workers, or 400 million people, worldwide between 2016 and 2030. ABC News
Changing proportion of published forecasts
One potential risk is the possibility of AI being used to automate tasks, which could lead to job displacement - a McKinsey Global Institute study found that by 2030, between 400 million and 800 million employees around the world could be displaced by automation. Forbes
800 million individuals globally could be displaced by AI and automation and need to find new jobs by 2030. Business Matters
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The greatest engineering challenge of the coming decade is the biggest looming opportunity; how to harness the power of artificial intelligence software to reshape the world of manufacturing. 3D Printing Industry
The Future of Jobs Report published by the World Economic Forum in 2022, states that AI is likely to replace 85 million jobs globally by 2025. Emeritus
The future of work has arrived, and according to a report by the World Economic Forum, robots, automation, and artificial intelligence could replace 85 million jobs globally by 2025. Richard van Hooijdonk Blog
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
AI is an extremely powerful tool which, if reserved to just a few large companies, has the potential to hypercharge global inequality. Tech Monitor
Solving the world's most intractable problems - reversing climate change, for instance - will ultimately require combining supercomputers, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. The Register
When refined through analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence data have the potential to transform businesses and ultimately the global economy. Entrepreneur
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
AI and digital technology will transform the world in dramatic ways in the coming years. AmCham Belgium
In the coming years, at the pace that AI is advancing, it will surely bring a paradigm shift in the world of conversational commerce. Analytics India Magazine
Are we at a point where GPT-4 demonstrates that we now have an AI engine where an AI program can converse and communicate with another human being without being detected as a machine? The Applied Intelligence Group
In a world where content can be generated instantly and infinitely by AI, how will SEO change? Together Fund
How can AI help productivity? NPR
How are AI language models becoming more inclusive? The Diversity Movement
How will AI change the future of fintech? 101 Blockchains
How will the emergence of generative AI impact the world of IT services, an area that India has been traditionally strong at? Together Fund
Who will win the race over emerging technologies like artificial intelligence? The Metals Service Center Institute
Who knew that one person's simple desire to draw on a screen 60 years ago would lead to a world full of AI, augmented reality and machine learning? Zebra Technologies
Will the AI developers who are studying the models value innovation and economic prospects more than the potential elimination of whole categories of jobs? Devo
What are the Challenges for Fintech Companies in Embracing AI? 101 Blockchains
What does AI mean for SEO? Search Engine Land
What are the dangers of AI? NPR
Will there come a time when artificial intelligence obtains consciousness and a will of its own, as if out of nowhere, automatically, as its development continues to progress? Artists' Association of Finland
If a system is low risk when viewed through the lens of specialist AI legislation and if AI can be a power for good, then why should a data protection regulator have primacy over the issue of a chatbot's accessibility and use and be able to implement a ban on its own volition? Forbes
When will AI surpass Facebook and Twitter as the major sources of fake news? AI - IT - Engineering - Cloud - Finance - Trends
While layering AI features on top of existing products is an easy win, will it be enough for them to protect their turf? Together Fund
As the ChatGPT-fuelled AI zeitgeist sweeps through the world, how will it impact the world of SaaS? Together Fund
How will AI change wars? Stitcher
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