Artificial Intelligence

A Future Prognosis

Kerry Richardson

3 December 2023
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
According to a report from Bankless Times Artificial intelligence could displace 800 million jobs (30% of the global workforce) by 2030. National Preparedness Commission
The World Economic Forum sees AI as eliminating 85m jobs globally but generating 97m new jobs from 2020-2024. Westpac
IBM cites data from The World Economic Forum that forecasts AI and automation will disrupt 85 million jobs globally between 2020 and 2025 while, at the same time, creating 97 million new job roles. Acceleration Economy
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • Starlink's performance highlighted the potential of new digital, network and AI-enabled modes of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance that integrate and synthesize data from multiple sources to create a situational awareness advantage. Aerospace America
  • More than 50% of Americans recently polled as part of a National Defence Survey conducted by the Ronald Reagan Institute said China poses the greatest risk to the United States' future, exemplifying a bigger push toward subsidizing AI through defence spending to maintain a technological advantage. Newsweek
  • 56% of organizations plan to increase investment in AI and machine learning technology in 2024 but while generative AI adoption is now mainstream, it will continue to be hindered by security and ethical concerns. The Recycler
  • AI is likely to face a global skills crisis and talent shortage that could undermine its large-scale proliferation in research, innovation, and development. SpringerLink
  • Concerns about AI could lead some to shop less online; 19% of respondents that expressed worry about AI said they plan to shop less online in 2023 as result. Modern Retail
  • 82% of consumers are concerned there will be no net benefits to society from gen AI. Adweek
  • 2024 will be a very tough year for Nvidia as it faces tougher comps and a more modest demand environment for its premium AI chips. Seeking Alpha
  • EAIS serves as a milestone to promote AI culture, policy, and innovation and centers on a bold vision: The Department of State will responsibly and securely harness the full capabilities of trustworthy artificial intelligence to advance United States diplomacy and shape the future of statecraft. State Magazine
  • With AI gaining momentum in 2023, the laws governing its responsible usage will need a relook in 2024. Security Boulevard
  • Hard-to-solve global issues, such as how to curb climate change and minimise the risks of artificial intelligence, are piling up. The Economist
  • Security Information and Event Management SIEM technology, with the help of AI, will likely be an emerging trend in 2024. NerdsToGo
  • Crews flying Pacific missions on the U.S. Navy's top maritime surveillance and attack aircraft will use AI algorithms to process sonar data gathered by underwater devices rapidly. BNN Breaking

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

artificial intelligence, UAV, application, airplane, algorithm, 3D
artificial intelligence, application, 5G, algorithm, GDP, IT
artificial intelligence, data, GPS, CPU, agency, built
artificial intelligence, emission, IT, CO2, GIS, actor
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
According to a report from Bankless Times Artificial intelligence could displace 800 million jobs (30% of the global workforce) by 2030. National Preparedness Commission
Unable to access the latest chips, China's AI contenders risk falling behind in a sector that Beijing has said it aims to lead the world in by 2030.
  • 2024 is likely to see a balance between regulatory compliance and fostering innovation in generative AI; clear regulation enables enterprises and vendors to proceed with certainty. Deloitte Insights
  • When the AI Act does eventually become law, non-compliance will result in penalties of $21.8 million (€20 million) or 4% of global turnover. Computerworld
  • The risk of AI-fueled informational chaos grows more acute as many democracies march towards high-stakes elections in 2024. Brookings
  • The Pentagon is intent on fielding multiple thousands of relatively inexpensive, expendable AI-enabled autonomous vehicles by 2026 to keep pace with China. ABC News
  • The Pentagon is intent on fielding AI-enabled autonomous vehicles by 2026. ABC News
  • Given the widespread presence of subglacial lakes beneath AIS, the pool of excess U is expected to be considerable, and may have significantly impacted local seawater delta U if it was released into the Southern Ocean during episodes of AIS retreat during the last deglaciation.
  • AI scams and gift card fraud are expected to explode in 2023. Insurance Journal
  • In 2023, we can expect AI to permeate various aspects of our lives, from smart homes to healthcare. TechBullion
  • Under the latest changes, which will take effect by 2024, YouTubers will get new options to indicate whether they are posting AI-generated video that, for example, realistically depict an event that never happened or show someone saying or doing something they did not actually do. Time
  • Coinbase's reputation for security and reliability, coupled with QuantGate's cutting-edge AI technology, will create a synergy that empowers traders to navigate the crypto markets with greater confidence and precision. financialpost
  • To mend the narrative gap, the United States and China could initiate a series of strategic steps, beginning with collaborative engagement in sectors of in areas of high stakes, high mutual interest, such as AI regulation. The Diplomat
  • The synergy of physical robotics and the power of AI and computer vision will be transformational over the next few years. Forbes
Financial Impact
Generative AI could add $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually in value to the global economy. MIT Technology Review
While AI hardware could lag slightly growth-wise, combined AI revenues could reach $2.575 trillion in 2032. Seeking Alpha
AI services and software are expected to have substantial growth, with global AI-related sales projected to reach $2.5 trillion in the next decade. Seeking Alpha
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Earlier in 2023, the UAE Cabinet adopted a new national artificial intelligence strategy, which paves the way for the UAE to be the global AI leader by 2031. Khaleej Times
The world will see digital superintelligence, or a form of artificial intelligence that is smarter than any human at anything within five or six years. CNBC
Automation and AI could displace up to 800 million jobs globally by 2030. B2B News Network
Changing proportion of published forecasts
In 2018, the McKinsey Global Institute released a report on the future of work, estimating that by 2030, AI systems, tools, and platforms could displace approximately 400 million people worldwide. International Institute for Analytics
Artificial intelligence could displace roughly 15% of workers, or 400 million people, worldwide between 2016 and 2030. ABC News
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
AI will replace 85 million jobs globally by 2025. Computerworld
If AI is adopted broadly, one estimate is that 15-30% of workers, or 400M people worldwide, could lose their jobs by 2030. Automation Anywhere
In 2019, Oxford Economics wrote a report forecasting that, by 2030, AI could replace up to 20 million manufacturing jobs worldwide. OnlinePMCourses
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Without global cooperation, it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to rein in the most dangerous potential of AI. The Guardian
Countries will ultimately need to establish some global understanding to make AI systems safer, and avoid AI creating strategic risks and instability. The Straits Times
Cutting-edge AI systems herald significant strategic advantages as 'ultimate enablers' of key major players such as the United States and China, but also risk unforeseen disruptions in global regulatory and norms-based regimes governing armed conflicts. Sipri
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
AI and digital technology will transform the world in dramatic ways in the coming years. AmCham Belgium
In the coming years, at the pace that AI is advancing, it will surely bring a paradigm shift in the world of conversational commerce. Analytics India Magazine
How can AI improve my business? NerdsToGo
How best can we leverage artificial intelligence and telehealth ventures to best capture patients with diabetic retinopathy early and prevent devastating complications? Campaign Page Builder
How can global initiatives for regulating AI complement the AI Act, and vice versa? EurActiv
AI is a fast developing technology, but how would an autonomous system respond if a bird strike caused both engines to fail shortly after take-off? The Sydney Morning Herald
The Nature of Work With generative AI tools, data science and digital technology driving all industry sectors, what will be the jobs of the future, how will jobs change and careers develop? Form the Future CIC
How do we support all users to navigate the AI landscape and maximise the positive benefits of AI while using it ethically? IFLA
Artificial intelligence is set to transform the world - but wh o stands to benefit and who will lose? I by IMD
Artificial intelligence is set to transform the world - but who stands to benefit and who will lose? I by IMD
If an AI creates a piece of writing, who owns it? Medium
What are the implications of strict regulation of AI on Europe's global competitiveness? EurActiv
What would a useful AI solution look like and what would it do, exactly? Fortune
What challenges can AI help address? IFLA
When will artificial intelligence gain consciousness? Futureseek Link Digest
How can we address the issue of fair AI practices when the concept of fairness varies depending on the perspective of developers or users?
Let us go through the current Generative AI hype and try to understand what impact a mainstream use of AI Large Language Models has on enterprises when it comes to the question What if GenAI is used AGAINST enterprises? SAP Community Blogs
Will AI take over the financial landscape? BusinessMirror
How will AI affect DevOps jobs? Gloucestershire College
How Will AI Impact the Future of Drones? Analytics Insight
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