2030

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

1 December 2022
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Bacardi has set an objective of introducing 10,000 new bartenders into the hospitality industry globally by 2030. CSR Wire
Emissions of planet-heating gases caused by human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, need to be halved by 2030 and end completely by mid-century to keep alive the Paris climate accord's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. AP News
The Belt and Road cooperation will lift 7.6 million people out of extreme poverty and 32 million people out of moderate poverty around the world by 2030. IOL
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • On the policy front some jurisdictions are further ahead in their thinking on biodiversity issues than others, for example the EU has adopted a Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 to protect nature and reverse the degradation of ecosystems. Lexology
  • The most headline-grabbing target is a commitment to permanently protect 30% of Earth's terrestrial and marine surface by 2030. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • The most headline-grabbing target is a commitment to permanently protect 30% of Earth's terrestrial and marine surface by 2030. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Weaknesses
  • The revision of the European Union Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive aims to push towards the EU goal of ensuring all packaging is reusable or recyclable by 2030 and contributes towards achieving net zero by 2050. Circular Online
  • The UK, spurred by more than £13 billion in annual waste due to poor home insulation, is moving to cut energy demand by 13% by 2030 through a massive retrofitting scheme. Center for Global Development | Ideas to Action
  • Regulation is failing to keep pace with chemical threats - with chemical production set to double by 2030 and the already widespread use of chemicals set to increase, including in consumer products. CHEM Trust
Opportunities
  • In the UK, shifting to a circular economy could increase resource productivity by 3% annually, generating £10bn in GVA and 200,000 new jobs by 2030. Circular Online
  • Australia joined the Global Offshore Wind Alliance, organised by the International Renewable Energy Agency, which aims to see 380 gigawatts of offshore wind infrastructure built around the world by 2030. Climateworks Centre
  • The EU has an ambitious goal of producing 20% of the world's semiconductors by 2030. Data Center Knowledge | News and analysis for the data
Threats
  • The Amazon rainforest has experienced so much climate change, forest loss and degradation that it is alarmingly close to tipping into a permanently degraded state and may die by 2030. DWF
  • Amazon Web Services is following in the footsteps of its public cloud rivals, Google and Microsoft, by committing to becoming a water-positive entity by 2030. ComputerWeekly.com
  • The Glasgow Declaration on Forests includes a commitment to working collectively to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030 while delivering sustainable development and promoting an inclusive rural transformation. REDD-Monitor
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
autonomous, Mars, airplane, computer, augmented reality, market
Emerging
EV, battery, artificial intelligence, car, hydrogen, 5G
Maturing
carbon, emission, country, CO2, demand, electricity
Declining
emission, coal, carbon, CO2, country, GDP
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Bacardi has set an objective of introducing 10,000 new bartenders into the hospitality industry globally by 2030. CSR Wire
Australia has just committed to 30% methane reduction by 2030 as part of a global coalition. ABC (Australia)
PEST
Political
  • Climate impacts will be much lower at 1.5 C, requests all countries to revisit and strengthen their 2030 climate plans in line with 1.5 C, and emphasizes the need for immediate, deep, rapid emission cuts. Climate Home
  • The agreement of cutting-edge biomass cook stoves, spruce fills and additional off-grid biomass power supply in creating nations are key amplification to enhance the present circumstance and attain all-inclusive access to clean energy dexterity by 2030. Renewable Energy 2022
  • As an example, consider that even before the pandemic hit, the estimated annual financing gap for 67 low- and middle-income countries to reach the health-related SDGs was 134 billion US dollars per year, rising to 371 billion US dollars by 2030. WHO
Economic
  • The UK Government's Energy Security Strategy, published in April, is headlined with an ambition for 95% of the UK's electricity generation to be low-carbon by 2030. Edie
  • With the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warning that CO2 emissions must be cut 45% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, the mega carbon project in Kenya is a welcome one. The Guardian
  • Some of ACMI's ambitions include the production of 300m carbon credits annually by 2030 and 1.5bn annually by 2050. The Guardian
Social
  • The Global Cooksafe Coalition is being launched in Sydney today and announcing partnerships with developers Lendlease and GPT, who have agreed to stop putting any gas in new buildings by 2030 and to retrofit existing buildings by 2040. ABC (Australia)
  • Ensuring a supportive, enabling environment free from stigma and discrimination will help achieve the targets of the Punjab AIDS Strategy 2021-2025 and contribute effectively towards ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Pakistan
  • There will be 18 million fewer health care workers in 2030 than there are now. Fortune
Technological
  • The MENA region is expected to have 45 fintech unicorns by 2030 and payments and fund transfers are expected to be the top applications or functions driving fintech growth. / UAE Fintech Finance
  • The total global spend on digital water technologies and services will scale at an 8.8% CAGR from $25.9 billion (USD) in 2021 to $55.2 billion in 2030, for a cumulative 10-year total of $387.5 billion. Water Finance & Management
  • The LEAP team is working towards the robot being integrated on ESA's European Large Logistic Lander, which is scheduled to land on the moon multiple times from the late 2020s to the early 2030s. phys.org
Financial Impact
Asia has the highest cloud value potential-about $1.3 trillion by 2030. McKinsey & Company
There is $3 trillion of EBITDA value up for grabs by 2030. McKinsey & Company
Cloud adoption could generate $3 trillion in EBITDA value by 2030. McKinsey & Company
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Climate change has already rendered parts of the world unlivable and by 2030, loss and damage from warming could cost the world anywhere from $290 billion to $580 billion a year. Vox
Globally, 25 million new project managers by 2030 - or 2.3 million per year - are required to meet the need for project-based work. FE News
The world faces a 40% water deficit by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario and ESG Clarity points to evidence that asset managers may - for the first time - have specific asks on reporting and behaviours of companies when it comes to water management. FTI Strategic Communications
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The world is on track to exhaust its carbon budget, the amount of greenhouse gases it can emit without triggering dangerous levels of warming, by 2030. McKinsey & Company
Civil society organisations such as the Global Commons Alliance are calling for a global nature positive goal to halt and reverse the destruction of nature by 2030 with a full recovery of a resilient biosphere by 2050. An A-Z of natural capital and biodiversity terms for in
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Global reinsurer Swiss Re has helped shape the challenge thrown down by the First Movers Coalition for each member to commit to at least 50,000 metric tons, or $25 million of durable and scalable net carbon removal by 2030. GreenBiz
Last year at COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, 141 leaders of countries that hold 90% of the world's forests committed to end deforestation by 2030. GreenBiz
By 2030, India will replace China as the most populous country in the world. Republic World
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
By 2030, up to two-thirds of the global extreme poor may be living in fragile and conflict-affected situations. OpenGlobalRights
By 2030, 7% of the global population, nearly 600 million people, could still be living in extreme poverty. World Bank Live
Shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine mean the world is unlikely to meet a longstanding goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030. Cyprus Mail
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Samsung's signal to divest from coal comes amid global movement to cancel all new coal power projects and end coal generation in advanced economies by 2030 to avoid climate catastrophe. Insure Our Future Global
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions need to come down by 45% globally (compared with 2005) by the end of 2030. Global Issues
Questions
Can?
What can Nigeria and Africa do to meet the Sustainable Development Goal - which everybody has access to clean sustainable energy by 2030? Businessday NG
How can we halve the emissions of the built environment by 2030? Transport Times
Can green hydrogen play a major role in global emissions reductions by 2030? Energy Post
How?
How does building resilience for 4 billion people by 2030 look like? COP27 Resilience Hub
How do strategies within the 2030 Palette simultaneously address mitigation and the need to adapt to a hotter, more volatile climate? Architect
How can US initiatives such as the US-Caribbean Partnership to Address the Climate Crisis 2030 support energy resilience and security in the Caribbean? Atlantic Council
Who?
With global healthcare worker shortages estimated by WHO to hit 18 million by 2030, how much longer can the NHS's international recruitment safety net exist? Health Service Journal
Who gained from global growth last decade - and who will benefit by 2030? McKinsey & Company
If 50% of the Big Three's cars are electric in 2030, who do they think is going to buy the other 50%? Charged EVs
What?
Let us leap forward to 2030 and see what is in store for customer service in retail, where should brands place their investment? Retail Times
What will Wi-Fi be in 2030? IEEE Global Communications Conference
What will be the size of the GIS in telecom market in 2030? P&S Intelligence
When?
Is Google's moonshot goal of operating its data centers and campuses entirely on carbon-free energy by 2030 going to make more than a blip of difference when it comes to mitigating the impacts of climate change? Engadget
There's a nagging question arising in the race to embrace electric cars; when at least 40% of new cars across Europe are battery-powered by 2030, will there be enough electricity to go around? Techregister
Remember when China vowed last year to hit peak carbon emissions in 2030 and reach carbon neutrality in 2060? The Energy Bulletin
Will?
What Centrifuge will be worth in 2030? CaptainAltcoin
What will carbon removal look like in 2030-50? McKinsey & Company
What climate targets will the EU and its member states pursue beyond 2030? Energistyrelsen
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