A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

18 May 2022
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the estimated global shortage of 18 million health workers by 2030. The White House
Intelligent robots might replace 30% of the human workforce worldwide by 2030. Enterprise Apps Today
Methane emissions must be reduced by 45% by 2030 for the world to have a fighting chance at staving off catastrophic climate change. Waste Dive
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • By adding bio-stabilization for residual waste, and biologically active cover for landfills and dumps, solid waste methane emissions could be reduced by as much as 95% by 2030. Waste Dive
  • While Labor has adopted a stronger 43% reduction target for 2030, it was still consistent with more than 2 degrees of warming. reneweconomy
  • Thanks to strong and practical action by the Morrison government, Australia is on track to reduce emissions by 35% by 2030. The Sydney Morning Herald
  • Trends in unchecked human population growth, pollution, and damaging agricultural practices would likely collide around 2030, leading to widespread food collapses. UNDP
  • To limit warming to as little as 1.5 degrees Celsius, the world would need to start adding about 390 gigawatts of wind farms a year by 2030. National Wind Watch
  • Clean energy investment remains inadequate and needs to triple by 2030 to get the world on track to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Global Witness
  • India pledged that by 2030, it would fulfil 50% of its energy requirement from renewable energy sources and also said it would raise its non-fossil fuel energy capacity to 500 GW. The India Forum
  • The Philippines is set to experience the highest consumption growth in ASEAN by 2030. Just Kitchen
  • Coffee-based alternatives to firewood, sawdust, and peat comply with the European zero-emissions strategic plan targets for 2030 and 2050. Impakter
  • In January, Fatih Birol of the IEA declared that a commodity price shock would add $US741 to the average EU household bill in 2030 if governments continued with their stated policies. Global Witness
  • More than 2 billion people will require at least 1 assistive product like hearing aids, wheelchairs or memory aids by 2030 due to the rise in the ageing global population along with a rise in non-communicable diseases. LinkedIn
  • Shortage of midwives will trigger an increase of one million by 2030 with serious implications for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals. Vanguard News

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

autonomous, Mars, airplane, computer, augmented reality, market
EV, battery, artificial intelligence, car, 5G, hydrogen
carbon, emission, country, CO2, demand, electricity
emission, coal, carbon, CO2, country, GDP
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the estimated global shortage of 18 million health workers by 2030. The White House
Take the average global crop yields for maize, or corn, which may see a decrease of 24% by the late century, with the declines becoming apparent by 2030, with high greenhouse gas emissions. FinancialExpress
  • India's carbon intensity reduction target upgrade from 33% -35% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030 is projected to be easily achievable based on its current policies and actions. Asia Society
  • The world's most populous country is planning at least 150 nuclear reactors by the mid-2030s - more than the rest of the world has managed to bring online in the past 50 years. Anthropocene Magazine
  • In January, Fatih Birol of the IEA declared that a commodity price shock would add $US741 to the average EU household bill in 2030 if governments continued with their stated policies. Global Witness
  • Costings by the independent Parliamentary Budget Office for the Australian Greens show the cuts - which start in mid-2024 and deliver major tax relief to higher-income earners - are on track to cost $37 billion annually by the early 2030s. The Sydney Morning Herald
  • The EU published its plans for renewable energy last summer and is aiming for hydrogen to make up six gigawatts (GW) of capacity by 2024 and reaching 40 GW by 2030. AirQualityNews
  • 58 million autonomous vehicles are projected to be sold globally in 2030. Smart Cities Dive
  • The number of households in India will continue to grow, reaching 354 million by 2030, up from 289 million in 2020. India Briefing News
  • Household income is expected to rise 40% by the year 2030, with the average household income reaching INR732,000 per annum, equivalent to around US$9,500. / India India Briefing News
  • The nursing workforce would need an additional 1.1 million RNs by 2030. Healthcare Finance News
  • Artificial Intelligence will add as much as US$ 15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030. Newsroom
  • Automation will play an important part in feeding all 8.5 billion of us in 2030 and beyond. Yahoo Finance
  • By 2030, 90% of jobs will demand digital skills. Businessday NG
Financial Impact
The transition to a circular value chain for plastic packaging represents a potential US$ 1 trillion global economic opportunity by 2030. Waste Advantage Magazine
BaaS will reach a value of $7 trillion by 2030. / India FinExtra
A new nature economy could generate USD 10 trillion in business value and create 395 million jobs by 2030. United Nations Environment Programme
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
If the world's energy consumption grows at the pre-COVID rate, technological change alone will not be enough to halve global CO2 emissions by 2030. Climate Code Red
Tropical regions of the world lost 11.1 million hectares of forest cover in 2021, new data shows, calling into question global pledges to end deforestation by 2030. SciDev.Net
BlocPower is partnering with Ithaca, New York, the first city in the world to commit to green all its buildings by 2030, to decarbonize its full real estate stock. The Eugene Lang Entrepreneurship Center
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Global fossil fuel emissions must fall by a whopping 45% by 2030 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including ever-more-dangerous wildfires, floods and heatwaves. ArabNews
Africa contributes 2 to 3% of global emissions, but climate change threatens to expose up to 118 million of the poorest Africans to droughts, floods and extreme heat by 2030. United Nations
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Coal-powered electricity generation must fall by 13% every year until 2030 to achieve the Paris Agreement's goals of keeping global heating to only 1.5 degrees. Mining.com
Flipkart, India's homegrown e-commerce leader, is one of the first players to commit to transitioning to 100% electric vehicle (EV) fleets by 2030, and it has signed up right-sized EVs for delivery use cases for the global EV100 initiative. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)
By 2030, robots could replace up to 20 million manufacturing jobs throughout the world. REMOTEful
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
By 2030, up to two-thirds of the world's extreme poor will live in conflict affected settings, the World Bank estimates. ONE
By 2030, one quarter of the world's population and 85% of the world's extreme poor will live in fragile and conflict-affected situations. Asian Development Blog
Conflict and poverty are intrinsically linked; by 2030 the World Bank predicts that up to two thirds of the world's extreme poor will live in conflict-affected settings. Bond
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
In the emerging and developing world, there is huge potential to mine in populous countries like China and India with hundreds of millions of middle class households coming of age, accounting for 48% of all the new middle income households globally by 2030. Euromonitor
Because without new projects coming online emissions will be 22% too high by 2025, and 66% too high by 2030. 21st Century Tech Blog
How can existing buildings be made more resilient to climate change, with as little disruption to their occupants as possible, by 2030? UKGBC - UK Green Building Council
Can the post-reset world accommodate eight billion plus humans by 2030? Peak Oil
Can the Netherlands hit a 60% emissions cut from 1990 levels by 2030? Politico
How much will Link Machine Learning be worth in 2030? Https://Priceprediction.Net
How will and how should the innovation and education of 2030, 2040 and 2050 differ from today's? iesalc.unesco.org
HOW CAN WE BE A CARBON NEUTRAL BOROUGH BY 2030? www.ribblevalley.gov.uk
Who gained from global growth last decade - and who will benefit by 2030? McKinsey & Company
If 50% of the Big Three's cars are electric in 2030, who do they think is going to buy the other 50%? Charged EVs
Who will be the leaders of renewable energy in Latin America by 2030? Global Americans
What are the key drivers, challenges, and opportunities for Southeast Asia's automobile industry during the forecast period 2022-2030? Research and Markets
What does 2030 hold for Bitcoin? sc.capex.com
Given where we stand today with respect to technology and technological progress, what would success look like-defined as a material global impact on one or more of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030? Brookings
Is Google's moonshot goal of operating its data centers and campuses entirely on carbon-free energy by 2030 going to make more than a blip of difference when it comes to mitigating the impacts of climate change? Engadget
There's a nagging question arising in the race to embrace electric cars; when at least 40% of new cars across Europe are battery-powered by 2030, will there be enough electricity to go around? Techregister
Remember when China vowed last year to hit peak carbon emissions in 2030 and reach carbon neutrality in 2060? The Energy Bulletin
Sarah O'Meara, Will China lead the world in AI by 2030? Centre for Land Warfare Studies
While no one wants to breath polluted air, go hungry, be impoverished, be endangered, etc., will human attempts to meet the goals of the United Nations' 2030 agenda and/or the Paris accords solve the problems facing humanity? Church of God News
What Bitcoin will be worth in 2030? CAPEX.com
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