A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

12 August 2022
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
There are rumors that Mercedes-Benz plans to retire manuals entirely by the end of 2023, all around the world, in a decision driven partly by electrification; Volkswagen is said to be dropping its own by 2030, and other brands are sure to follow. The Atlantic
UNAIDS leads the global effort to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. The Conversation
60% of new passenger cars must be EVs by 2030 for the world to be on a trajectory for net zero by mid-century, with all cars being so by 2050. Energy Monitor
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • Strong climate regulations from the Biden administration and action from states would be needed to get to Biden's goal of cutting emissions 50% by 2030. / USA CNN
  • Sanctuaries are critical in the fight against climate change, to protect biodiversity and to meet the goals of protecting 30% of land and sea by 2030. EcoWatch
  • The American automaker has committed to going all-electric from 2030, and is making its own Ultium batteries to power a whole stable of electric cars. The Driven
  • The U.S. will still come up short of the 2030 Paris pledge without complementary executive, state and local policies, per analyses by the Rhodium Group, the Princeton-led REPEAT Project and others. Axios
  • While vertical programs might be helpful for filling health sector gaps in LMICs over the short run, they might not represent a long-term solution, particularly in the context of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Health Security
  • If signed into law, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would allocate $369 billion to reduce America's greenhouse gas emissions and invest in renewable energy sources - a historic amount that scientists estimate will lead to net reductions of 40% by 2030, compared with 2005 levels. Earth Island Journal
  • Aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) is expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2024 and grow at a 2.8% CAGR over 2025-2030, to become a $118 billion industry. Infosys
  • At the Nutrition 4 Growth summit in Japan in late 2021, 396 new nutrition commitments were made by 78 countries in a critical, last ditch attempt to get back on track to achieving zero hunger by 2030. RTE
  • Gen Z's economic clout is the fastest growing among the generational groups and their income is expected to rise fivefold by 2030 to $33 trillion as they join the workplace, accounting for more than a quarter of global income and surpassing Millennials' income by 2031. Money Management
  • Malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase in east and southern Africa and the Sahel under even moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by the 2030s, exposing an additional 50.6-62.1 million people to malaria risk. IPCC
  • A similar gas crisis in 2030 with the 50 GW of offshore wind target achieved would see payback of £34bn a year, equivalent to at least £500 for each home. New analysis: wind power 'bonus' could cut bills by £25
  • 1, 2 Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress. Health Security

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

autonomous, Mars, airplane, computer, augmented reality, market
EV, battery, artificial intelligence, car, hydrogen, 5G
carbon, emission, country, CO2, demand, electricity
emission, coal, carbon, CO2, country, GDP
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
There are rumors that Mercedes-Benz plans to retire manuals entirely by the end of 2023, all around the world, in a decision driven partly by electrification; Volkswagen is said to be dropping its own by 2030, and other brands are sure to follow. The Atlantic
The climate provisions could produce by 2030 a 40% reduction in U.S. carbon emissions, a major contributor to climate change, and spur global action. The Spectrum
  • Pushing to have Australia's first two nuclear submarines by the early 2030s seems a most proactive and appealing an option. Defence Connect
  • Under EU rules, member states must cut their energy consumption by at least 9% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels, which could rise to 13% as part of an acceleration of plans to end the EU's dependence on Russian fossil fuels. The Irish Times
  • If signed into law, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would allocate $369bn to reduce America's greenhouse gas emissions and invest in renewable energy sources - a historic amount that scientists estimate will lead to net reductions of 40% by 2030, compared with 2005 levels. The Guardian
  • The oil sands industry itself has issued a pathways to net zero plan that pledges to cut emissions by 22 megatonnes a year by 2030 and then virtually eliminate emissions from direct operations by 2050. Corporate Knights
  • Ottawa has pledged to cap oil and gas emissions at current levels and then see them reduced by 42% below 2019 levels by 2030. Corporate Knights
  • Particulate matter pollution in the United States would fall - potentially preventing 3,700 to 3,900 deaths annually by 2030, in addition to 99,000 to 100,000 avoided asthma attacks, and 405,000 to 417,000 avoided lost work days, Inside Climate writes. Corporate Knights
  • Founded in 2021, BWBC has partnered with ConsenSys to train 500,000 women globally to become blockchain developers by 2030. Coingeek
  • There will be a healthcare worker deficit of 80 million globally by 2030. IoT Business News
  • Electric heat pumps will be the most affordable way to heat most single-family homes using clean energy in the U.S. in 2030. Utility Dive
  • A potentially promising space for companies of all sorts, metaverse fashion, alone, is slated to potentially balloon into a $55 billion industry by 2030. The Fashion Law
  • With digital marketing budgets crossing 146 billion, and spending on the metaverse ranging between $144 billion and $206 billion by 2030 more businesses will be looking for a comprehensive service approach rather than an a la carte one. ClickZ
  • Micron announced Tuesday it will invest $40 billion between now and 2030 to manufacture chips in the U.S. CNBC
Financial Impact
The metaverse sector could reach a $5 trillion valuation by 2030, meaning traders will likely continue gravitating towards Decentraland over the longer term. Business 2 Community
Toyota has announced it will spend 8 Trillion yen (around $70 billion) to reach its goal of reaching 3.5 million BEVs by 2030. Electrek
The African agritech sector alone is forecast to be valued at $1 trillion by 2030, research commissioned by Microsoft reveals. Africa Practice
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
The world is not on course to end AIDS by 2030. www.euractiv.com
As the world's HIV leaders gather in Montreal this week for the 24th International AIDS Conference, Canada must recommit to ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. thestar.com
NCDs are a major cause of poverty, and could cost the world economy $47 trillion by 2030. the weekly ledger
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The climate crisis, conflict, economic shocks, and inequality are threatening global goals to end hunger and malnutrition by 2030. The New Humanitarian
The latest IPCC report finds all countries are falling way short, with financial flows three to six times lower than levels needed by 2030 - and even starker differences in some regions of the world. UNDP Climate Promise
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
A significant majority of the world's major cities have committed to requiring that all new buildings be net zero by 2030 and all buildings to be net zero by 2050. Trade Arabia
Last year, a coalition of countries signed the first global commitment to cut methane emissions by at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030 at the UN climate conference COP26 in Glasgow. www.euractiv.com
Globally, leading data centre operators have committed to carbon neutrality and science-based targets for emissions reduction by 2030. Eco-business
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
By 2030, up to two-thirds of the world's extreme poor will live in conflict affected settings, the World Bank estimates. ONE
By 2030, one quarter of the world's population and 85% of the world's extreme poor will live in fragile and conflict-affected situations. Asian Development Blog
Conflict and poverty are intrinsically linked; by 2030 the World Bank predicts that up to two thirds of the world's extreme poor will live in conflict-affected settings. Bond
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Samsung's signal to divest from coal comes amid global movement to cancel all new coal power projects and end coal generation in advanced economies by 2030 to avoid climate catastrophe. Insure Our Future Global
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions need to come down by 45% globally (compared with 2005) by the end of 2030. Global Issues
How Can Local Firms Guide Through Headwinds Of Geopolitical Tensions And Rising Protectionism To Achieve Goals Highlighted In The Singapore Economy 2030 Vision? Asia Pacific Metalworking Equipment News | Manufacturin
How can governments work with the financial sector to help align the global financial system with the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration goal of reversing forest loss and degradation by 2030? ICAEW
How can the UK government increase the mobilisation of public and private investment to achieve 2030 climate and nature targets in emerging and developing economies? ICAEW
How can girls' secondary education in rural areas in emerging economies contribute to strengthening resilience to climate change by 2030? 60 million girls
How much will Link Machine Learning be worth in 2030? Https://Priceprediction.Net
How can existing buildings be made more resilient to climate change, with as little disruption to their occupants as possible, by 2030? UKGBC - UK Green Building Council
Who gained from global growth last decade - and who will benefit by 2030? McKinsey & Company
If 50% of the Big Three's cars are electric in 2030, who do they think is going to buy the other 50%? Charged EVs
Who will be the leaders of renewable energy in Latin America by 2030? Global Americans
What has Saudi Arabia done to keep the realisation of Vision 2030 in motion? PwC
What has Saudi Arabia done to keep the realisation of Vision 2030, namely its goal of becoming a vibrant, ambitious and economically resilient nation, in motion? PwC
In a scenario without much further disruption and with current trends enduring, what might a more democratized economy look like by the mid-2030s? Non Profit News | Nonprofit Quarterly
Is Google's moonshot goal of operating its data centers and campuses entirely on carbon-free energy by 2030 going to make more than a blip of difference when it comes to mitigating the impacts of climate change? Engadget
There's a nagging question arising in the race to embrace electric cars; when at least 40% of new cars across Europe are battery-powered by 2030, will there be enough electricity to go around? Techregister
Remember when China vowed last year to hit peak carbon emissions in 2030 and reach carbon neutrality in 2060? The Energy Bulletin
What will be the best careers in 2030? DollarBreak
Sarah O'Meara, Will China lead the world in AI by 2030? Centre for Land Warfare Studies
While no one wants to breath polluted air, go hungry, be impoverished, be endangered, etc., will human attempts to meet the goals of the United Nations' 2030 agenda and/or the Paris accords solve the problems facing humanity? Church of God News
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