A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

24 March 2023
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Last December nearly 200 countries have adopted the Global Biodiversity Framework, which sets global targets to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030. International Finance Corporation
By 2030 employers will face an estimated shortage of 85 million workers across the globe. Schneider Electric Blog
Globally, the labour force will face a shortage of 85 million workers by 2030 due to aging populations, changing demographics, and skills gaps. Multichannel Merchant
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • President Biden on Tuesday took a major step toward fulfilling his administration's goals of protecting 30% of US lands and waters by 2030 as he designated two new national monuments-Avi Kwa Ame in Nevada and Castner Range in Texas. Sierra Club
  • Russia aims to nearly triple LNG exports to 100 million metric tons / year by 2030 by expanding the list of natural gas fields allowed to export the super-chilled fuel. Natural Gas Intelligence
  • Cycling stakeholders are making the case for an ambitious and comprehensive EU-level strategy to double the number of kilometers cycled in Europe by 2030 and build a more resilient and sustainable European cycling industry. Eventbrite
  • Technological standardisation could be limited until the mid-2030s, however, since few floating wind concepts will be tested commercially before the end of this decade. Energy Monitor
  • At Cop 28 in Dubai in 2023 deal should encourage all countries to re-submit better 2030 climate plans and ensure that 2035 goals from all countries bar the poorest are economy wide and in line with the 1.5 C warming limit. New Statesman
  • Emissions must be halved by the mid-2030s if the world is to have any chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels - a key target enshrined in the global climate pact the Paris Agreement. Reuters
  • Meeting the EU's climate target by 2030 means that an equivalent of one in every four homes will need to replace their heating systems with a clean alternative between 2026 and 2030. Energy Monitor
  • Ambitious plans to transform Newhaven into a major contributor to the Sussex economy by 2030 have been unveiled. Insider Media Ltd
  • Planned investments for new oil and gas to 2030 could fully finance the scale-up of wind and solar energy needed to align with 1.5 °C. International Institute for Sustainable Development
  • If the supersonic airliner fills the role of Air Force One, it will not be until the 2030s at the earliest. Jalopnik
  • Global water demands are predicted to increase 40% by 2030, resulting in the displacement of nearly 700 million people. www.itron.com
  • The WSDP-3 implementation could reduce Tanzania's economic losses by $1.9 billion per year by 2030. World Bank Blogs

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

autonomous, Mars, computer, airplane, augmented reality, market
EV, battery, artificial intelligence, car, hydrogen, 5G
carbon, emission, country, demand, CO2, electricity
emission, coal, carbon, CO2, country, GDP
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Last December nearly 200 countries have adopted the Global Biodiversity Framework, which sets global targets to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030. International Finance Corporation
In 2020, the World Health Assembly adopted a strategy for the elimination of CC, with the intention of achieving for all countries an incidence rate of less than 4 cases per 100,000 women by 2030. Frontiers
  • The Biden administration is aiming to leverage the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act as part of a national hydrogen strategy with the U.S. Department of Energy to drive the production of 10 million metric tons of hydrogen by 2030. Energy Futures Initiative
  • Both EU and national targets to boost carbon sinks by 2030. ESG News
  • New law raises the EU carbon sinks target for the land use and forestry sector, which should reduce greenhouse gases in the EU in 2030 by up to 57% compared to 1990. ESG News
  • An additional 119-124 million people were pushed back into extreme poverty in 2020, and the global poverty rate is projected to be 7% in 2030, thereby missing the target of eradicating poverty. Frontiers
  • Lithium, a key element of batteries in electric vehicles and devices, shall see its demand increase 11-fold by 2030, and 57-fold by 2050, according to Commission's estimates - yet only a small proportion comes from EU mines. www.euractiv.com
  • Demand for rare earth metals for wind turbines is expected to increase 4.5 -fold by 2030. www.euractiv.com
  • Eli Lilly's 30 x30 programme aims to increase healthcare access for 30 million people in resource-limited settings annually by 2030. The Guardian
  • A coalition that includes the NAACP, the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association and Urban Institute has developed a seven-point plan, 3 by 30, to create 3 million new Black homeowners by 2030. Governing
  • Significant transmission deployment is needed as soon as 2030 in the Plains, Midwest, and Texas regions. Energy.gov
  • HB 2816 would set emission standards for newly built data centers beginning in 2030, with strict limits taking effect in 2040. Govtech
  • While an earlier leaked draft of the Net Zero Industry Act had stipulated a target for 85% of batteries deployed annually in the European Union to be domestically manufactured by 2030, it had been short of explicitly mentioning energy storage technologies. Energy Storage News
  • Research by GlobalData projects the BNPL sector will surpass $1 trillion by 2030, with the analytics company suggesting that BigTech companies and payments providers will become more invested in the BNPL sector and spur its capitalisation. FStech
Financial Impact
The world could reach debt levels of maybe $3 quadrillion by 2030. Algora Blog
Drop shipping, or the practice of purchasing cheap goods, usually from China, and selling them on a legitimate-seeming website for profit, is an industry valued at $225 billion, and is expected to grow to $1.2 trillion by 2030. Vox
World chemical sales are expected to reach €6.2 trillion in 2030, at which point the EU-27 chemical industry is expected to rank third globally in terms of sales volumes. European Environment Agency
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
In late 2021 nearly 140 world leaders gathering at the United Nations climate talks in Glasgow pledged to end forest loss and land degradation by 2030. International Consortium of Investigative Journalists
By 2030, 92% of the total value transacted through CBDCs around the world will be paid domestically, as cross-border payment systems face an uphill battle for adoption. Reseller News
An estimated 7 million lives could be saved worldwide by the implementation of highly cost-effective sodium reduction policies by 2030. AffairsCloud.com
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Artificial intelligence could displace roughly 15% of workers, or 400 million people, worldwide between 2016 and 2030. ABC News
One potential risk is the possibility of AI being used to automate tasks, which could lead to job displacement - a McKinsey Global Institute study found that by 2030, between 400 million and 800 million employees around the world could be displaced by automation. Forbes
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Supporting Tenure Facility and its partners is vital if global promises, like halting and reversing forest loss and land degradation by 2030, are to be kept. Tenure Facility
Audi plans to produce electric cars in all its locations globally by 2030, with no new combustion-engine models to be introduced beyond 2026. Automotive News Europe
By 2030, climate impacts are likely to put millions of lives at risk, as well as trillions of dollars of economic activity and physical capital, and the world's stock of natural capital. New Economics Foundation
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
By 2030, the majority of the world's extreme poor, which includes a large proportion of displaced people, will live in fragile and conflict affected states - so job creation in fragile settings has the significant potential to address poverty. World Bank Blogs
The Belt and Road cooperation will lift 7.6 million people out of extreme poverty and 32 million people out of moderate poverty around the world by 2030. IOL
By 2030, up to two-thirds of the global extreme poor may be living in fragile and conflict-affected situations. OpenGlobalRights
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The world faces a 40% water deficit by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario and ESG Clarity points to evidence that asset managers may - for the first time - have specific asks on reporting and behaviours of companies when it comes to water management. FTI Strategic Communications
Samsung's signal to divest from coal comes amid global movement to cancel all new coal power projects and end coal generation in advanced economies by 2030 to avoid climate catastrophe. Insure Our Future Global
How can we ban fossil fuels on planet Earth by 2030? Capitol Broadcasting Company
Can the world 'halt and reverse' biodiversity loss by 2030? Carbon Brief
Can we really achieve 'zero climate disasters' by 2030? Euronews.com
How should we approach future proofing for cyber security technologies out to 2030? Herbert Smith Freehills | Global law firm
How close are we to achieving the global goal to end HIV/AIDS by 2030? The Washington Post
How will people living in Malta be making money in 2030, 2040, and 2050? Manuel Delia
With global healthcare worker shortages estimated by WHO to hit 18 million by 2030, how much longer can the NHS's international recruitment safety net exist? Health Service Journal
Who gained from global growth last decade - and who will benefit by 2030? McKinsey & Company
If 50% of the Big Three's cars are electric in 2030, who do they think is going to buy the other 50%? Charged EVs
What if governments and regulators collectively decide to manage their economy's leverage down, with a goal to return to pre-COVID - 19 levels by 2030? S&P Global Platts
What kind of climate change will Angola face in 2030, 2050, and 2100? World Bank Blogs
What are the areas that Mongolians should take more advantage of to accelerate its development and achieve SDGs by 2030? MONTSAME News Agency
What then is Nigeria's Zero Hunger policy and what strategies do we intend to create a Nigeria free of hunger in 2030 or at least in 2060 when Nigeria will be a hundred years as a sovereign country? Vanguard News
What then is Nigeria's Zero Hunger policy and what strategies do we intend to create a Nigeria free of hunger in 2030 or at least in 2060 when Nigeria will be hundred years as a sovereign country? THISDAY LIVE
What then is Nigeria's Zero Hunger policy and what strategies do we intend to create a country free of hunger in 2030 or at least in 2060 when Nigeria will be 100 years as a sovereign country? Healthwise
What will be the market size of the automotive lubricants market by 2030? Yahoo Finance
What will be the price of HBAR in 2030? My Blog
Trend 6 HUMAN SKILLS ARE THE NEW HARD SKILLS FOT THE FUTURE OF WORK What skills are needed for a future workplace where one billion jobs will be transformed by technology by 2030? Transport Times
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