Feeding the World
What is changing?
Production
- Our capacity to generate sufficient food, animal feed and energy is increasingly compromised by human population expansion, competition for land use, rapid biodiversity loss and predicted global climate change.
- Increasing demand for bioenergy and biofuels will directly affect land availability for food production.
- Pesticides will still play a major role in the improvement of future crop yields to secure food availability.
- Crop productivity has been and will continue to be highly threatened by the presence of animal and microbial pests detrimental to plants.
- The city of Fresno could feed all its residents year-round with local food.
- Increasing demand for bioenergy and biofuels will directly affect land availability for food production.
Growth
- Global demand for food is projected to increase by approximately 35% by 2030 as compared to 2012.
- The major growth of agricultural productivity is projected to be by driven by developing countries.
- Hunger, food insecurity, and undernourishment are predicted to persist in the 21th century.
- The loss of honeybee colonies in the US could drive food prices up.
- The major growth of agricultural productivity is projected to be by driven by developing countries.
- Some estimates indicate that as much as one-quarter of food waste in developing countries could be eliminated by increasing access to refrigeration equipment.
Innovation
- There will be an increasing demand for innovative food products.
- A smart fridge sending data on storage and usage of healthy food at home monitoring the consumption levels, refills, etc. could get health insurance discounts.
- Using synthetic biology techniques will facilitate the development of additional improved strains for use in the production of other renewable fuels and chemicals.
- New packaging solutions will focus more on food safety by controlling microbial growth.
- The pressure on water, land, energy, and labor resources will necessitate innovation to enhance agriculture productivity.
Climate change
- Climate change will increase the probability of the occurrence of natural vectors, which enable pests, pathogens as well as invasive species to invade new territories, potentially affecting agricultural production.
- The main impacts of climate change on agriculture will most probably be experienced through temperatures extremes (increase in minima and maxima).
- One 30-story vertical farm could produce enough food for more than 50,000 people.
- Climate change poses a risk to crop production.
- The online share of food will increase to 9.5% and to 32.1% for non-food items in 2018.
- New packaging solutions will focus more on food safety by controlling microbial growth.
- Plant diseases pose a major threat to global food security.
- A growing proportion of employment within the food systems will be related to transport.
- There are and will still be substantial differences in food consumption and food preparation across Europe in 2050.
- The global average per capita food consumption per day is projected to increase by 24% and reach 3'070 kcal capita per day by 2050. Only SSA and South Asia will still have per capita consumptions <3'000 kcal per capita and day.
- More than half of the world's population (52% or 4.7 billion) will consume >3'000 kcal per capita and day by 2050.
Implications
Sustainability
- New sustainable technologies will be needed for humanity just to stay even in the arms race against the microorganisms that can rapidly spoil the outputs of the modern food system.
- Real policy coherence could provide a further push towards meeting the challenges associated with achieving a balanced, yet demand-driven and sustainable food system.
- Recent food price spikes illustrate clearly the systemic risks associated with disruptions in major production regions and/or outbreaks of trade restrictions.
- In a plausible worst case scenario where production does not keep up with growing demand, food could become the single most sought-after resource globally. Global markets could be destabilised, with prices high and volatile.
- Food systems will need to rely on more sustainable production in the future.
- Creating social and economic continuity between rural, semi-rural, urbanised areas and megacities will re-shape the concept of food security from "how to feed the poor" to "how to secure food supply" in answering new emerging demand (quantity, quality, type, processing and more).
Surprises
- Migration will affect (local) food demand.
- The potential for supply shortages or disruptions due to social considerations, including labor violations, child labor, fair wages, and food shortages, present further risk to a company's long-term ability to source key materials and ingredients.
Learn more
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