United States

• Economists rank a serious escalation of US-China trade tensions as the biggest risk to the global economy in 2017.
• A more restrictive trade policy will affect countries with large trade surpluses with the US.
• Higher tariffs would depress Alibaba's sales to U.S. consumers and ensuing trade disputes could hurt sales on Alibaba's Tmall platform.
• Volumes of internationally-traded goods and services are likely to decline from 2017 as Mr Trump's protectionist posturing threatens existing and planned trade deals.
• The US is expected to rise up Maplecroft's political risk and trade relations indices.
• US firms will not be able to compete with China's economies of scale and competitive wage market.
• Ending sanctions will help trade which will create jobs in the US, Europe and Russia.

Asia

• Economists are concerned that a recent upswing in Asian trade will struggle to survive an expected U.S. turn to protectionism under Trump's presidency.
• Trump's dumping of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal presents China with a golden opportunity to strengthen its regional leadership role in 2017.
• The EU and Japan are expected to make concessions to preserve trade relations with China.
• China has threatened that a trade war against the country will result in more harm to the U.S.
• China suffered a sharp drop in exports last year and there are fears its trading position will weaken further in 2017 with repercussions for the global economy if Donald Trump's protectionist policies prompt a trade war.
• The volume of Sino-African trade is expected to rise even further in the coming years.
• The failure of the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership will see China step up its advocacy
• Emerging and developing Asia will experience lower growth for the seventh consecutive year.
• Singapore will continue to play a major role in the regional and global trade and information flows.
• Indonesia could suffer on the implementation of Trump's anti-trade protectionist policies.
• Exports from the U.S. to India will expand by 90 percent.
• Service imports could help India increase its overall competitiveness in international agricultural trade.
• A free trade agreement between India and the U.S. could be a tempting policy option for both countries in the future.
  

Europe

• CETA will increase Canadian-EU trade by 20 per cent and boost the EU economy by €12-billion ($12.8-billion) a year and Canada's by $12-billion.
• The UK will lose 4% of GDP if it leaves the single market without a free trade deal.
• Any new trade deal between the UK and the EU will require some formal procedure for resolving trade disputes.

Africa

• The Continental Free Trade Area is expected to comprise all 54 African states.

Trade war

• U.S. business could be targets for retaliation in any trade war ushered in by Trump.
• Widespread boycotts of American products in China could hit brands including Nike Inc., General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Tiffany & Co.
• The MSCI China Index could fall by as much as 30 percent from current levels if the U.S. and China impose 45 percent tariffs on each other.
• Germany will need a new economic strategy geared toward Asia should the new U.S. administration start a trade war with China.
• Economists are concerned that a recent upswing in Asian trade will struggle to survive an expected U.S. turn to protectionism under Trump's presidency.
• The regime switch in multilateralism could mean that Europe flexes its policy muscles on industry, innovation and trade to dodge the balls coming from the U.S. and China.
• If the trade relationship between China and the U.S. sours Canada could sell some of its crops to China in place of the United States.
• A trade war could push the U.S. and global economies into recession.
• The US and China could take a more aggressive stance on trade and investment whereas Europe will be keener on balancing growth and politics.
• Governments around the world are increasingly pursuing protectionist policies that could restrict the free flow of information on the Internet.
• Mexico is by far the economy in Latin America most exposed to risks from the U.S.
• Pulling the United States out of the North American free-trade agreement will lead to cuts in automotive jobs for Americans.

Brexit

• The UK could agree a Free Trade Agreement with the EU which included REACH (and potentially other EU environmental regulations).
• UK exports of goods to the EU will decline by close to GBP9bn (about 3% of total goods exports) in the first year of the introduction of tariffs.

Sentiment

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