People will increasingly have choice about how or when they travel due to the rapid expansion of new options and assistive technologies. Read on to discover where Athena, our robot, thinks emerging change will most affect you and your organization then read the full forecast at Shaping Tomorrow and develop your collaborative response in real-time using our leading-edge Options Analysis tool.
What is changing?
Driving
Driverless vehicles will likely encourage people to increase their travel significantly.
VMT will likely increase as the cost of travel decreases and more people are able to drive.
A simulation model found that if 50 percent of car travel is by shared self-driving vehicles and the remainder by traditional human-piloted cars, total vehicle travel will increase between 30 percent and 90 percent.
Analytics will allow urban planners to incentivize travel to relieve congestion.
Platooning will allow AVs on freeways to travel at much higher speed and density than traditional cars.
A fully driverless vehicle society will likely introduce entirely new travel patterns
The establishment of fast-charging points will be most needed along major European transport corridors.
As more information about driverless vehicles and their usage becomes available, travel demand models will need to be updated.
GHG emissions will likely be significantly reduced due to the likelihood that many driverless vehicles will be electric.
Vehicles will be able to complete trips without anyone in the car.
Research indicates that the platooning of autonomous vehicles could increase lane capacity (vehicles per lane per hour) by up to 500 percent.
The prototype of an electric car will be able to travel 600 km (375 miles) without recharging by 2020.
Prices will fall so low that the per-mile cost of travel will be cheaper in a driverless Uber than in a private car.
Flying
Demand for air travel is expected to nearly double from 3.8-billion air passengers in 2016 to 7.2-billion passengers in 2035.
Short haul flights and regional train travel will be hard pressed to compete against trips in FAVs.
Uber's VTOLs will revolutionize transportation in a manner similar to when commercial aircraft flights became the norm for long-distance travel.
Airlines could partner with ground transportation companies to create the infrastructure to link autonomous vehicle travel to existing flight routes.
Air travel will grow by an average of almost 5% each year until 2034.
The emergence of so-called aviation mega cities will propel air traffic.
Cycling
The number of people cycling to work in the EU is expected to increase by 10 % by 2030.
Rail
The new offerings on Expedia.co.uk will signal the first time that a global, full-service online travel agency has offered a rail component in addition to other travel products like hotels, air travel and car rentals.
Hyperloops and High-speed trains will proliferate
Delivery
Robots from Starship Technologies, Inc., will travel on sidewalks and streets to deliver goods such as restaurant meals and groceries.
Virtual Reality
The Internet of Experiences will emerge allowing individuals to travel to digital versions of real destinations.
The biggest advantage of VR will be helping consumers decide where to travel.
The operations of a travel agent will eventually be completely automated by the implementation of new AI technology.
VR is expected to change the way the travel industry markets itself.
True telepresence could practically eliminate business travel costs.
Virtual Reality (VR) escapism and immersive brand experiences will shape service and guest experiences in the future of luxury travel.
Physical movement and digital engagement via AR will create new opportunities to predict what humans are about to do.
Wearables
Wearable tech is expected to surge in popularity by 2016 and become a vital part of the business travel experience.
Space
Regulating space travel through taxes will be pivotal as colonization plans become a reality.
Reusable rockets could revolutionize space travel.
Health
Human population growth and increasing international trade and travel all combine to raise the chances that new diseases will emerge and spread.
Implications
There are so many cost-effective and reliable transportation options available that people will not need to own their own cars.
A global AI could provide people with information about where to live, work, and vacation that would reduce contact with people with distasteful views. For example, hotel and flight openings could be shown to only have people to leisure travel when and where people with similar tastes.
Pilotless airlines and robot hotel staff could all become a part of the travel experience by 2035.
High-speed travel could relieve over-crowded cities by decreasing the need for urbanisation.
Existing transport operators face significant opportunities but also threats from MaaS growth.