Global Scans · Brazil · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: A recession in Brazil is expected to bottom out with growth turning positive starting in 2017. Its economy is expected to require a long period of fiscal and monetary adjustment after the political turmoil and public discontent of the last two years.

• [New] In 2026, Brazil is expected to break soybean production records yet again, producing 6.5 billion bushels of soybeans during the 2025-26 season, an increase of 4% from last year. agtechnavigator.com
• [New] Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop is widely expected to set a new production record, with estimates from government and private analysts generally ranging from the upper 170s to just above 180 million metric tons. Ag Bull Trading
• [New] The second-crop corn in Brazil will be pollinating in May, and traders will be monitoring that closely. High Plains Journal
• [New] U.S. and Brazilian soybean markets could both face changing demand from China. agtechnavigator.com
• [New] In addition to more frequent extreme weather events, the 2026/27 harvest in Brazil is expected to be affected by the effects of El Nino. valorinternational
• [New] Brazil's fertilizer revival is real - but it is a 2029 solution to a 2026 problem. The Rio Times
• [New] Rabobank projects 2026 demand at approximately 47.2 million tonnes, slightly below the 49 million recorded in 2025. / Brazil The Rio Times
• [New] Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has barred the implementation of a law that could dramatically reduce the prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro for involvement in a coup plot after his loss in the 2022 election. Al Jazeera
• [New] The promised meeting between Lula and Trump seems increasingly unlikely, while new sources of friction have emerged, including congressional scrutiny of the Brazilian payment platform Pix, which could result in the reimposition of tariffs on various of Brazil's most important exports. E-International Relations
• [New] The upcoming elections in Colombia and Brazil are likely to face similar challenges and increased risks of social unrest. ZeroFOX
• [New] Washington and Brasilia have faced strain over the fight against organised crime, the US's war in Iran and the risk of American interference in Brazil's October elections. BBC News
• [New] By 2030, over 600 wells are expected to be drilled at Lula, with Brazil's national production forecasted to reach 4.9 million bpd by 2032. Ocean News & Technology
• [New] Brazil has the potential to supply up to 40% of Europe's green hydrogen demand by 2040. The Rio Times
• [New] Offshore wind could generate up to 516,000 jobs and contribute R$ 902 billion to Brazil's GDP by 2050. The Rio Times
• [New] The World Bank estimates Brazil's total offshore wind technical potential at 1,200 GW - 480 GW fixed-bottom and 748 GW floating. The Rio Times
• [New] A major near-term signal is the Dom Inocencio wind project - an 828 MW facility in Piaui, where Casa dos Ventos has ordered over 100 Vestas turbines, with construction starting in 2026 and commissioning targeted for 2028, making it the first major new wind project approved in Brazil since 2023. The Rio Times
• [New] Projected revenue from Brazil's soy complex exports was cut to $51.18 billion for 2026 from the $58.17 billion estimated last month. ADMISI
• [New] Soybean exports alone are expected to generate $42 billion in revenue in 2026, down from a previous estimate of $49 billion. / Brazil ADMISI
• [New] The recent economic data projecting India's GDP growth rate for FY 2026-27 at 7.0% by the RBI is a good indicator of its economic prowess, as it is way ahead of all the G20 nations, including Germany, Brazil, and China. Diplomatist
• [New] Brazil is expected to produce 356.3 million tonnes of grains in the current season, representing an increase of 1.2% - or 4.1 million tonnes - compared to the previous cycle. All About Feed
• [New] Brazil expects to export a record-breaking 113.6 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, with China being the number one destination for Brazilian exports. agtechnavigator.com

Last updated: 12 May 2026