Global Scans · Brazil · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: A recession in Brazil is expected to bottom out with growth turning positive starting in 2017. Its economy is expected to require a long period of fiscal and monetary adjustment after the political turmoil and public discontent of the last two years.

• [New] While Brazil is seeking relief from US tariffs, it is actively pursuing opportunities to expand into new markets. Coface
• [New] Given the US need to find alternatives to China for critical mineral supplies, Brazil could become an attractive partner. Coface
• [New] Brazil's external imbalance is expected to improve somewhat in 2026 on the back of a higher trade surplus (3.0% GDP in 2024). Coface
• [New] While global growth may stutter, reforms in nations like India and Brazil could propel them forward. WebProNews
• [New] Leading up to the December ministerial meeting, the International Energy Agency warned of a potential surplus of nearly 4 million bpd in 2026, driven by record output from the United States, Brazil, and Guyana. FinancialContent
• [New] China's Zilia Technologies will invest R$ 1 billion ($200 million) to expand memory-chip manufacturing for AI data centers in Brazil. New Energy Industrial Strategy (NEIS) Newsletter
• [New] Tariffs on beef from Brazil resulted in margin pressures as restaurants absorbed price increases, however, restaurants could see some relief soon. Restaurant Dive
• [New] After remaining largely flat in 2024, Brazil's crude oil production is forecast to increase by 0.4 million b/d to 3.8 million b/d in 2025. EIA - Energy Information Administration
• [New] For Brazil, projected productivity losses in the hundreds of millions a day could be far more than the cost of investing in green spaces, shading, cooling breaks, adjusted work hours, personal cooling technology, and fully leaning into a renewable energy infrastructure. The Cool Down
• [New] With economic activity projected below potential, Brazil stands out as the only country with significant room for further rate cuts. Funds Society
• [New] Brazil has focused on exploring the potential for utilizing carbon dioxide-based fuels, chemicals, and fertilizers as part of its efforts to decrease emissions associated with both energy and agriculture. Precedence Research
• [New] December is expected to be characterized by frequent rains across most of Brazil's Central-Northern regions, which should help plant growth. valorinternational
• [New] Rio Grande do Sul could be the tiebreaker for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean performance. valorinternational
• [New] Brazil might harvest 182.9 million tonnes of soybeans in 2025/26; the previous month's estimate was 183.2 million tonnes. valorinternational
• [New] Soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 will reach 177.6 million tonnes. valorinternational
• [New] Neutral conditions are expected with a 68% probability, which could improve crop yields but may also bring wetter weather to southern Brazil and Argentina. Winssolutions - World Innovative Sustainable Solutions
• [New] Brazil might have to contend with a La Nina weather pattern, as forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Yahoo Finance
• [New] Brazil and China, as major agricultural producers, will see increased demand for biostimulants, particularly in the soybean and rice sectors, respectively. WK Information
• [New] The US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada are collectively responsible for the majority of global supply growth in 2025 and remain major contributors into 2026. aegis-hedging.com

Last updated: 30 December 2025