Global Scans · Brazil · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: A recession in Brazil is expected to bottom out with growth turning positive starting in 2017. Its economy is expected to require a long period of fiscal and monetary adjustment after the political turmoil and public discontent of the last two years.

• [New] UBS analysts expect the ongoing global expansion to continue positively influencing Brazil's GDP in 2026. valorinternational
• [New] Inflation readings from Australia to the euro area to Brazil and GDP numbers from India to Canada will be in focus. financialpost
• [New] Generally, less monetary easing is expected in 2026 with the exception of Brazil, which is expected to cut rates as much as 3% in 2026. AAFMAA Wealth Management & Trust LLC
• [New] While increasing biodiesel content can help lower emissions and support Brazil's renewable energy goals, moving too quickly without proper technical backing could risk fuel quality issues or supply chain disruptions. Seneca ESG
• [New] The overall 2025-26 crop is still expected to reach around 180 million tonnes - in line with the USDA's February estimate of 182 million tonnes, and a new record, driven by acreage expansion in central and northern Brazil rather than higher yields. Kpler
• [New] Southern Brazil, including Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, is projected to receive up to around 4 inches of rain and around 60 mph winds according to Brazil's National Meteorological Agency. SafeAbroad
• [New] The development of lithium refinery solutions in emerging markets creates additional opportunities for Brazilian producers to establish strategic partnerships beyond concentrate sales. Discovery Alert
• [New] Over time, considering the life expectancy in Brazil of around 75 years, there may be a carcinogenic risk since there's a possibility of direct and indirect DNA damage. ScienceDaily
• [New] Flagship projects in Argentina, Guyana and Brazil, which are expected to add more than 700,000 barrels per day of oil production in 2026, will continue to outcompete Venezuela through at least 2030. Cyprus Shipping News
• [New] Under Brazil's energy roadmap, biodiesel content in diesel is meant to increase by one percentage point annually, reaching 20% by 2030. Seneca ESG
• [New] A potential postponement of Brazil's biodiesel mandate increase to B16 could add some supply to global markets. Vesper
• [New] Brazil is currently rebalancing public procurement and concession regimes (often state specific) and introducing more robust local content and ESG-related compliance requirements, which could delay projects, prompt contractual renegotiations, and/or increase State scrutiny. JD Supra
• [New] Trump's 10% tariff will not affect Brazil's competitiveness on trade. financialpost
• [New] Export anxiety intensified, especially for soybeans: more producers expect exports to decline over the next five years, and 80% are concerned about U.S. soybean competitiveness versus Brazil. AGDAILY
• [New] If the favorable weather conditions in Brazil continue, and coffee deliveries remain strong, the downward pressure on coffee futures could lead to lower prices for consumers on platforms like Amazon in the coming months. National Today
• [New] If La Nina turns out to be stronger or more persistent than expected, it could bring hotter and drier-than-normal conditions to key agricultural regions - including Argentina, southern Brazil, and the U.S. Gulf Coast. World Bank Group
• [New] Weather contrasts in Brazil are creating risks for the upcoming soybean crop and slowing the pace of harvesting. UkrAgroConsult
• [New] Brazil is still expected to reap a record of nearly 178 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year. ADMISI
• [New] The additional quota applies only to lean beef, and more lean beef is already expected from other sources, including Brazil, Australia, New Zealand and Paraguay. Meatingplace
• [New] GOL Linhas Aereas will expand its footprint in northern Brazil with new nonstop routes linking Manaus to Fortaleza and Boa Vista, while boosting capacity from Boa Vista to Brasilia. Aviation Week Network

Last updated: 10 March 2026