Global Scans · Brazil · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: A recession in Brazil is expected to bottom out with growth turning positive starting in 2017. Its economy is expected to require a long period of fiscal and monetary adjustment after the political turmoil and public discontent of the last two years.

• [New] Latin America is expected to see steady growth, particularly in Brazil and Mexico, as healthcare infrastructure improves and demand for advanced diagnostics increases. ReAnIn
• [New] South East Asian and Latin American markets have accelerated mandate timelines - most notably Indonesia's B50 and Brazil's E32 - leveraging established domestic feedstock industries, although structural supply constraints will limit the pace of expansion. Fitch Solutions
• [New] The spike in global fuel prices, and in particular diesel, is set to weigh on Brazil's fuel imports over the short term and affect Petrobras' downstream strategy, raising risks of unplanned outages at key refineries later this year. Fitch Solutions
• [New] Rather, infrastructure gaps, particularly the geographic disconnect between inland feedstock sources and coastal gas pipeline networks, will be the primary constraint on biomethane scale-up through 2035. / Brazil Fitch Solutions
• [New] Brazil's soybean production is expected to exceed 160 million metric tons by 2030, reinforcing its position as the world's largest exporter. Market Data Forecast
• [New] Eldorado has agreed to acquire the Deep Value Driller in a transaction expected to close in the second half of 2026. / Brazil GlobeNewswire
• [New] Attempts by Bolsonaro allies to capitalize on Trump's recent moves toward Brazil appear to have yielded limited returns, as many voters perceive U.S. tariff threats and criticism of PIX as harmful to national interests. FTI Strategic Communications
• [New] Brazil increasingly emerged as a strategically important lithium jurisdiction because of geological potential, infrastructure access, mining friendliness, and growing global investor attention toward diversified critical-mineral supply chains outside traditional jurisdictions. Kalkine
• [New] Last week, with the presence of Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Petrobras reported that it will invest 72.5 billion reais in Sergipe and 2.8 billion reais in Amazonas. BNamericas
• [New] Global Vehicle Production Growth: Emerging markets including India, ASEAN nations, and Brazil are accelerating vehicle production growth, with India's annual output projected to cross 6 million vehicles by 2030, all demanding locally assembled wiring harnesses. IMARC Group
• [New] By 2040, additional countries such as Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, the Philippines, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam are expected to wield greater global influence, either independently or as part of regional blocs. GOV.UK
• [New] Key Dynamic & Vulnerability: Energy exporters (Brazil, Colombia) benefit from higher oil prices; Mexico's growth is constrained by USMCA uncertainty and weaker United States (U.S.) demand. LinkedIn
• [New] Brazil's strategic exposure to commodities linked to energy, AI, and defence will continue to bode well for BRL. Brown Brothers Harriman
• [New] The continued expansion of production in major exporting countries, including Australia and Brazil, together with the gradual commissioning of new low-cost capacity in West Africa, is expected to further increase an already abundant global supply. PricePedia
• [New] Brazilian food giant BRF reported expectations that World Cup-related sales could rise by as much as 50% compared with the 2022 tournament. flavorist.com
• Commercial service will start by 2026, more than 100 units are ordered, and forecasts are for selling over 1,000 units, which are expected to create revenue above USD 2 Billion. / Brazil IMARC Group
• The global coffee industry received important news during the week as Brazilian commodity experts forecast record coffee exports for the upcoming 2026/27 crop year. flavorist.com
• Rabo writes that, with expectations for a narrowing interest rate differential between Brazil and advanced economies through 2026 and a potential recovery in the US dollar globally against a fragile fiscal backdrop in an election year, it expects USD / BRL to appreciate towards 5.35 by year-end. investing.com
• USDA anticipates Brazil producing 186 mmt of soybeans and Argentina 50 mmt. DTN Progressive Farmer
• The 3-million-metric-ton increase in Brazilian corn production was well above trade estimates, so it will be increasingly important to watch their weather moving forward. Successful Farming
• For exports, the largest changes are expected for Australia (-1.2 million bales to 4.5 million), India (+500,000 bales to 1.5 million), Brazil (+300,000 bales to 15.0 million), the U.S. (+300,000 bales to 12.3 million), and Turkey (-300,000 bales to 600,000). WWD
• In Latin America, the Brazilian Supreme Court is considering a potentially landmark ruling on the employment status of app-based drivers that could set a binding national precedent. Lewis Silkin
• The BRICS Summit in 2026 will provide a platform for Brazil and Russia to further anchor their economic cooperation within a broader geopolitical context. BRICS

Last updated: 30 June 2026