Global Scans · Brazil · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: A recession in Brazil is expected to bottom out with growth turning positive starting in 2017. Its economy is expected to require a long period of fiscal and monetary adjustment after the political turmoil and public discontent of the last two years.

• [New] Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's likely arrest will weaken his political influence, but the far-right will remain strong, potentially threatening left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election bid in 2026. Stratfor
• [New] BRICS Pay could be backed by the existing domestic infrastructure of BRICS members, such as Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages, China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and Brazil's Pix system. Red Fire
• [New] Brazil's economy is expected to grow by 2% in 2026, building on continued political stability and an ambitious sustainability agenda. RSM Latin America
• [New] Significant investment in wind, solar and bioenergy is positioning Brazil as a regional leader in renewables, presenting compelling opportunities for businesses with a commitment to sustainability and progress. RSM Latin America
• [New] Brazil plans to harvest about 178 million tons of soybeans in 2026, which is 6.5 million tons more compared to last year. AgroReview
• [New] According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brazil and Guyana will account for nearly half of the forecasted worldwide oil production increases in 2026, with Guyana's offshore projects achieving record ramp-up speeds and Brazil's pre-salt reservoirs surpassing projections. MarketScreener
• [New] Australia and Brazil, having become major food and commodity providers to what can be termed Global China, have witnessed the systematic atrophy of their manufacturing capabilities, creating dangerous vulnerabilities in any scenario requiring rapid industrial mobilization. Second Line of Defense
• [New] The 80-year-old Brazilian President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is seeking a fifth term in the 2026 general election, which could lead to more social spending and public investment, raising questions on Brazil's debt-to-GDP ratio. agtechnavigator.com
• [New] Brazil's agribusiness sector remains resilient in the face of macro factors - such as trade uncertainty, presidential politics, and challenging farming conditions - as production on several of its key commodities is expected to make records again in 2026. agtechnavigator.com
• [New] On the world side, there were few changes, but Brazil production, as expected, was increased by 3 mmt to a record 178 mmt (6.54 bb). DTN Progressive Farmer
• [New] Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are set to be major drivers of non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2026, accounting for half of the expected 0.8 million barrels per day increase in 2026 the U.S. Energy Information Administration has predicted. oilprice.com
• [New] The risk factors for emerging countries are expected to be predominantly geopolitical or political (notable elections in Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, Peru, Thailand, and Vietnam) rather than economic or financial. economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] As for Latin American countries, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico will continue to face considerable constraints on economic growth due to the deteriorating state of public finances and high real interest rates. economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] The new multipolar, competitive order is creating new geoeconomic booms and with them, wholly new job opportunities: from defence industries in South Korea, Turkey, and Poland, and chipmaking in Malaysia; to critical minerals in Australia and food and agriculture in Brazil. Time
• [New] We are planning to begin the transformation of Riograndense into Brazil's first biorefinery in the second half of the year, which will produce 100% bio-based products. ADM Investor Services
• [New] New Brazil-U.S. route planned - V.tal's Synapse cable will span roughly 9,700 km with 16 fiber pairs, adding a new transatlantic path between Sao Paulo and New Jersey. RCR Wireless News
• [New] While reduced production might limit global beef price declines - especially with strong demand in markets like the U.S. - Brazil's exporters face squeezed margins if they must divert beef to alternative markets at lower prices. DMA Delivers
• [New] The official launch of Butantan-DV in Brazil begins this month with an expected 30 million doses this year. NIH Record
• [New] In partnership with Boston Consulting Group, electrified vehicles (hybrids and fully electric) could account for more than 90% of new car sales in Brazil by 2040. valorinternational
• [New] Countries and formal regional blocs with significant economic scale and diplomatic capacity, such as the EU, India, Japan and Brazil, will make measurable, if uneven, progress. GIS Reports
• [New] Brazil stands at the absolute forefront, having launched its ambitious PBIA 2024-2028 plan with an estimated investment of $4 billion. MEXC Blog
• [New] Why Brazil's Supreme Court And Congress Are Heading For A Bigger Clash In 2026 - > Over amendments transparency (R$7 B 2026 proposals halted), risking fiscal credibility, local disruptions, and volatility from governance tensions. The Rio Times

Last updated: 03 February 2026