Global Scans · Brazil · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: A recession in Brazil is expected to bottom out with growth turning positive starting in 2017. Its economy is expected to require a long period of fiscal and monetary adjustment after the political turmoil and public discontent of the last two years.

• [New] Fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus will add 1.1 percentage points to Brazil's GDP in 2026, up from 0.4 points in 2025. valorinternational
• [New] Brazil's economy may have lost less momentum than expected at the end of 2025, and although growth is expected to slow in 2026, a series of stimulus measures is likely to support activity, though with a more inflationary impact. valorinternational
• [New] Brazilian economists predict a 2026 inflation rate of 3.99%, slightly down from the previous estimate of 4.0%. Longbridge
• [New] Packed with healthy fats, antioxidants, and minerals, Brazil nuts are a sustainable source of functional food that have the potential to combat various diseases such as obesity and hypertension. FoodNavigator-Asia.com
• [New] Energy trade between Nigeria and countries such as Brazil already illustrates the potential for transactions conducted in national currencies, following a model increasingly adopted by Russia and China. bricsgrain
• [New] By the end of 2030, every fifth new car sold in Brazil is expected to come from China. Deutsche Welle
• [New] China has been investing in Brazil's agriculture and infrastructure for the past 20 years, and Brazil could now supply China with all the grain it needs without receiving a single bushel from the United States. UkrAgroConsult
• [New] Brazil's greatest future challenge will be the uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy, itself generated by American political dysfunction. 19FortyFive
• [New] The environmental impact will be much lower compared to traditional fossil-fuel-powered transport, helping to further boost sustainable tourism in Brazil. Travel And Tour World
• [New] For tourism, electric air taxis in Brazil will significantly reduce travel time between airports and major tourist destinations. Travel And Tour World
• [New] Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's likely arrest will weaken his political influence, but the far-right will remain strong, potentially threatening left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election bid in 2026. Stratfor
• [New] BRICS Pay could be backed by the existing domestic infrastructure of BRICS members, such as Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages, China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and Brazil's Pix system. Red Fire
• [New] Brazil's economy is expected to grow by 2% in 2026, building on continued political stability and an ambitious sustainability agenda. RSM Latin America
• [New] Significant investment in wind, solar and bioenergy is positioning Brazil as a regional leader in renewables, presenting compelling opportunities for businesses with a commitment to sustainability and progress. RSM Latin America
• [New] Brazil plans to harvest about 178 million tons of soybeans in 2026, which is 6.5 million tons more compared to last year. AgroReview
• [New] According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brazil and Guyana will account for nearly half of the forecasted worldwide oil production increases in 2026, with Guyana's offshore projects achieving record ramp-up speeds and Brazil's pre-salt reservoirs surpassing projections. MarketScreener
• [New] Australia and Brazil, having become major food and commodity providers to what can be termed Global China, have witnessed the systematic atrophy of their manufacturing capabilities, creating dangerous vulnerabilities in any scenario requiring rapid industrial mobilization. Second Line of Defense
• [New] The 80-year-old Brazilian President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is seeking a fifth term in the 2026 general election, which could lead to more social spending and public investment, raising questions on Brazil's debt-to-GDP ratio. agtechnavigator.com
• [New] Brazil's agribusiness sector remains resilient in the face of macro factors - such as trade uncertainty, presidential politics, and challenging farming conditions - as production on several of its key commodities is expected to make records again in 2026. agtechnavigator.com
• [New] On the world side, there were few changes, but Brazil production, as expected, was increased by 3 mmt to a record 178 mmt (6.54 bb). DTN Progressive Farmer
• [New] Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are set to be major drivers of non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2026, accounting for half of the expected 0.8 million barrels per day increase in 2026 the U.S. Energy Information Administration has predicted. oilprice.com

Last updated: 10 February 2026