Travel

WHAT'S NEXT?: How we travel, where we travel and whether we travel at all will mean tremendous change in the decades ahead.

[New] U.S. lodging demand is forecast to increase by a compound annual growth rate of 14.1% over the next four years, recovering to 2019 levels by Q3 2023.
[New] With tourism contributing to nearly 7% of employment in OECD countries, COVID-19 will lead to a 60% decline in international tourism in 2020, which could go to 80% if recovery is delayed until December.
[New] The Greek economy is expected to shrink 9% in 2020 due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdown measures that have severely affected international travel.
[New] Some 2.8 million jobs in Italy which are supported by Travel & Tourism are at risk of being lost in a worst case scenario mapped out by WTTC economic modelling.
[New] The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its 2020 oil demand forecast on Thursday, warning that reduced air travel due to the coronavirus pandemic would lower global oil demand in 2020 by 8.1 million barrels per day (bpd).
[New] Demand for travel is forecast to fall by 58% in 2020, while passenger revenues will decline by over $6 billion compared to the previous year.
The U.S. economy will miss out on $155 billion in 2020 because of the loss of international travel, putting nearly 12.1 million jobs at risk.
The UK is forecast to lose £22bn in spending as international tourism plummets, putting almost 3m jobs at risk.
Airlines are adding back international routes to their networks as coronavirus travel restrictions slowly recede, but the number of frequencies is still far below last year's level and not expected to catch up until 2024 because most people are reluctant, or unable, to fly.
All parties acknowledge the planned growth of air travel in the coming decades, and GHG emissions will likely increase if stricter measures are not put in place.
The travel and tourism sector will be significantly weakened due to Jordan's restrictions on tourism and diminished global appetite for travel that will likely continue through all of 2021.
Over the coming decade we will need bold and ambitious spatial plans to reshape the built environment, helping to reduce the need to travel, and maximising the use of walking, cycling, public transport and shared mobility.
South Korea's tourist industry has been devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic, with $320 billion lost in exports in the first five months of the year and over 120 million jobs at risk.
For 2021, Malaysia is expected to record strong recovery in economic growth with the expected lifting of more restrictions on domestic movement and international travel.
The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) has forecast 3 million job losses across the UK tourism sector with uncoordinated restrictions deterring travellers.
In Zimbabwe, the tourism sector forecasts a decline, which may lead to a loss of between US$ 500 million and US$1, 1 billion in tourism receipts.
The global health crisis has decimated the travel industry and the future remains highly uncertain, with most analysts suggesting that it will take years to recover to pre-crisis levels.
Given an expected relatively quick rebound in economic growth and the historic resiliency of travel demand, CBRE forecasts strong hotel revenue recovery in 2021 and 2022 with RevPAR returning to pre-recession levels by mid-2023.
2020 would see the lowest oil demand in 25 years: Even assuming that travel restrictions are eased in the second half of the year, we expect that global oil demand in 2020 will fall by 9.3 million barrels a day versus 2019, erasing almost a decade of growth.
Incorporating future mobility thinking into strategic investment planning is vital for sub-national transport bodies as the nature and methods of travel will change greatly over the coming years.
The number of people traveling abroad at the end of 2020 will be about 60% of last year's level, even if countries around the world begin relaxing their travel restrictions.
Assuming the international situation does not worsen significantly and borders are able to reopen by mid 2021, inbound international travel would start to resume in the second half of the forecast period.
US spending into South America is forecast to drop by 44.4% between 2020 and 2021 as travel restrictions due to COVID-19 have stymied visitor flows.

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Last updated: 19 September 2020